BREAKING: French woman on Koh Samui tests positive for COVID-19

[tribalfusion001]

21 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I m wondering if this is going to trigger the same kind of Paranoia we saw when that Egyptian " Soldier " went walkabout in Rayong.

I inclined to believe  at this Lady contracted the Covid Virus in Quarantine from a flawed procedure or a contaminated worker

Paranoia, did you see how many people were protesting in the last week. I think covid-19 was the last thing they were thinking about. In western countries people are questioning the whole covid situation and asking whether this ecomonic meltdown is worth it. With low testing Thailand has probably got lots of cases walking around and mild positives if any symptoms at all.

[sammieuk1]

There are bound to be mysterious cases popping up here to confound the virus is perfectly at home ???? 

[judokrab]

2 hours ago, themongoose said:

Its not a great surprise.

 

My partner just returned from the Rajabhat Graduation ceremony at Sakhon Nakhon last week. They tested everyone before entry into the ceremony hall and 10 people tested positive there.

 

Let's see if these numbers appear in the stats tomorrow!

[ThailandRyan]

3 hours ago, canopus1969 said:

Increase quarantine ro 3 weeks

No No No, Anutin says it can be done away with, no more quarantine.  Seems pretty useless to me if someone who has gone through quarantine tests positive afterwards and actually comes down sick.  Hmmm who to believe, who to believe.  Well not the Thai authorities that's for sure.

[ThailandRyan]

3 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

had visited the French embassy before taking Bangkok Airways PG167 to Koh Samui.

Wondering if they will blame the Embassy officials, as it could not have come from within Thailand.....

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Is it? I've just head HSV1/HSV2 blood PCR tests, they cam back both negative which I find very hard to believe as I am absolutely certain I've head HSV1 since my early childhood, where there were always two or three kids with cold sores in the classroom.

I thought also that I was likely to test positive for HSV2, but not with any level of certainty.

From what I know, HSV is difficult to test for, and ideally been done using a swab from an open sore. 
 

Similarly, PCR tests for other infections get less reliable when using a wrong or less preferred specimen. 
 

Most currently available Covid-19 PCR tests seem to have a sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9% if carried out correctly, which is extremely high. There’s one vendor that regularly tests all its hundreds of employees and never had a positive. If those tests had a high rate of false positives then this would not be the case. Some studies come to similar results.  
 

Im not a doctor though. If you need medical advice, discuss it with an experienced infectious disease specialist. I’m just sharing what I learned myself. 
 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by welovesundaysatspace

[Maestro]

Removed some off-topic posts and the replies to them.

[suzannegoh]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

not correct. The test is specific to COVID-19. False positives are very rare (but false negatives fairly common). And when someone tests positiev a second test is immediately done to conifrm. Odds of 2 sequential false positives are miniscule.

 

Now PCR can indeed pick up dead cells from prior COVID-19 infection, but as she is symptomatic that is not likely to be the case here.

 

Do you know what the Specificity of the PCR test for Covid-19 is?

[hamleknoi]

33 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

But if it's that sensitive wouldn't there be a risk of false positives, particularly for people who have recovered but are still shedding inactive virus DNA.

This is an antigen-based test

 

 

28 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

What Ct value is recommended? The first diagram looks to be a max of 35x. And do you know what Ct values other countries use for their RT-PCR tests?

 

https://www.anteotech.com/covid-19/

This is a lateral flow test.

RT-PCR testing was performed on the samples to verify the results. I don't know what other countries use.

You can get more specifics about the test from their releases here https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.ado

 

[Aussiepeter]

My post on this topic was deleted by the mods and perhaps rightly so, but for the record, I never had any intention to suggest any conspiracy about C-19 reporting in LOS. Quite the opposite. I speak to folks there very day - I think it is a non-event in LOS. My post was more about how safe the system here in Oz is going at the moment, but I do accept the mods decision, as my post could have been misconstrued. I was talking about the MIL being ill at age 70 in CM and having 5 vials of blood taken today. I have since managed to get Mrs P off the 'games on her mobile' and, she called her mum in C Mai. The MIL now says that she is just 'sick' from the cold season arriving early, but is otherwise very well. It turns out (and Sheryl especially will be interested in this) that the hospital (the big one at Mae Rim, I forget the name) took 5 vials of blood because the old girl  has survived for 27 years on Thai made retro-virals, as she has been HIV+ for that long ! She has NO symptoms of C-19 at all. They simply wanted to check "everything" which I can understand, at her age of 72. My own belief about C-19, given that I have a real Uni-degree with a major in Chemistry is that viruses, any viruses, can't survive in heat. Last time I looked, LOS wasn't cold. Ever. It just makes sense. I apologise again to the mods, who do a great job, under stress too.

[Sheryl]

3 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

 

Do you know what the Specificity of the PCR test for Covid-19 is?

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

[suzannegoh]

9 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

Wouldn't a 95% specificity mean that there's a 0.2% chance of two tests being false positives only if the error was random rather than systemic?

Edited October 23, 2020 by suzannegoh

[Sheryl]

Just now, suzannegoh said:

Wouldn't a 95% specificity only mean that there's a 0.2% chance of two tests being false positives only if the error was random rather than systemic?

 

 

Yes, specificity refers to the chances of a random error.

 

What do you mean by a "systematic" error?

 

There is certainly no indication of any problem with testing equipment or procedures in Thailand, if there were there would be many false positives occurring and there have not been.

 

The woman has symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and has had 2 sequential positive tests. No reason at all to think she does not in fact  have COVID.

[phetphet]

4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...

 

Or she contracted it while in quarantine, but after the second test. I don't think Thai nationals are required to do pre flight testing, so can carry it into quarantine where there is the possibility, however small of passing it on.

[tribalfusion001]

2 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Or she contracted it while in quarantine, but after the second test. I don't think Thai nationals are required to do pre flight testing, so can carry it into quarantine where there is the possibility, however small of passing it on.

Other countries in the region like Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines are reporting lots of new cases per day, but Thailand is not. Malaysia is testing 4x as many people at 60,000 per 1 million and Indonesia is 15,500 per 1 million, Thailand is 14,000 per 1 million. No one has explained why Thailand has zero cases when other SE Asian countries are reporting 500+ cases per day. Maybe people have mild symptoms and just don't bother asking to be tested.

[suzannegoh]

1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

 

 

Yes, specificity refers to the chances of a random error.

 

What do you mean by a "systematic" error?

 

There is certainly no indication of any problem with testing equipment or procedures in Thailand, if there were there would be many false positives occurring and there have not been.

 

The woman has symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and has had 2 sequential positive tests. No reason at all to think she does not in fact  have COVID.

I didn't know that Specificity was a measure of only random error.

Systemic error is when the same error occurs by the same amount every time you run the same test on the same patient.  An example would be if something was present in the patient's system that tricks the test into false positive and that something is still in the patient's system the next day, then that patient would still test positive the next day. 
 

[tribalfusion001]

9 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

I didn't know that Specificity was a measure of only random error.

Systemic error is when the same error occurs by the same amount every time you run the same test on the same patient.  An example would be if something was present in the patient's system that tricks the test into false positive and that something is still in the patient's system the next day, then that patient would still test positive the next day. 
 

That's an interesting point about being in the patients system, Cristiano Ronaldo has now tested positive twice without any symptoms. Excuse the source, just did a quick search for a reference. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8868067/Cristiano-Ronaldo-tests-positive-coronavirus-miss-Barcelona-clash.html

 

"But Juventus filed a medical report to UEFA arguing that the player's test showed a very low viral load" this would indicate that in Italy the Ct value is too high and is picking up too many people who don't show any symptoms. There is debate whether you would pass on the same viral load or not, depends on who you read and believe.

 

This is another example in Italy, 3 British students who keep testing positive and are not allowed to leave isolation. There is an update to the story from the 22nd in The Telegraph (paywall) they are still there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8805591/Italy-coronavirus-Britons-quarantine-two-months-fear-mental-health.html

Edited October 23, 2020 by tribalfusion001

[suzannegoh]

42 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

A little over 95%. So 2 sequential positive tests would have only about 0.2% chance of being wrong.

 

Specificity, on the other hand, is pretty low at only around 70% for test by nasal swab.

 

 

But let’s suppose that it’s only random error that we need to be concerned about and that it’s correct that if someone is tested twice there’s only a 0.2% chance of getting a false positive.  At first blush that sounds pretty good, but if the actual infection rate of those tested was less than 0.2% then more than half of the positives that are detected would be false.  To understand why, let's suppose that the infection rate was zero in the general public.  Then we'd still get 2 positives out of every 1000 tests just due to the test's specificity but all of them would be false.  If the real infection rate was 0.2%, then we would find 2 real positives per 1000 people tested plus 2 per 1000 arising from the test's specificity, so on average, 2 out of the 4 positives would be false.  Thus the lower the infection rate the higher the specificity of the test needs to be.

[metisdead]

A post commenting on moderation has been removed.

 

An off topic post was reported and removed as well. 

[mickymouse1]

7 hours ago, canopus1969 said:

Increase quarantine ro 3 weeks

How about introducing a more efficient testing?

[mehrdad]

How can come to thailand ?

what kind of visa ? ?

[UB40]

Its so devastating. <deleted> ... is she sick? Infections = antibodies found but does not mean somebody is sick!

[Kinnock]

Most likely cause is that she contracted the virus in the ASQ hotel.  The ASQ will contain people from many high risk countries, and they are only transfered to a hospital if they test positive and develop symptoms.

 

So there's a good chance of asymptomatic COVID cases in every ASQ.  Then we have staff going from room to room, 'interns' going to the gym and common areas after a (possibly false) negative test, plus the possibility of illicit meetings.

 

Most likely place to catch COVID in Thailand is probably an ASQ.

[Nout]

7 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...

 

A finely nuanced view sir.

[Kinnock]

Most likely cause is that she contracted the virus in the ASQ hotel.  The ASQ will contain people from many high risk countries, and they are only transfered to a hospital if they test positive and develop symptoms.

 

So there's a good chance of asymptomatic COVID cases in every ASQ.  Then we have staff going from room to room, 'interns' going to the gym and common areas after a (possibly false) negative test, plus the possibility of illicit meetings.

 

Most likely place to catch COVID in Thailand is probably an ASQ.

[edwardandtubs]

5 hours ago, hamleknoi said:

This is an antigen-based test

 

 

 

So what? It's still going to be detecting the virus long after you've ceased to be infectious so the problem of false positives remains. This will be a particular issue as large numbers of people become infected over the winter and recover but still test positive weeks or months later.

[Chelseafan]

10 hours ago, Farma said:

Some provinces, not all, have additional home quarantine once a person arrives in that province after 14 day ASQ.

 

 

And you really think they abide by it ? ????

[Chelseafan]

10 hours ago, robsamui said:

Of Course. 
What did Trump say about bringing the USA's numbers down? Stop testing.
What do you think Tland's been doing since the panic started back in March?

 

A little bit of truth in this

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Thailand has tested 14k per 1m of the population compared to 393k per 1m of the population in the US,

Having said that, if the virus is truly under control as they claim then the need for testing diminishes

 

[ThailandRyan]

19 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

 

A little bit of truth in this

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Thailand has tested 14k per 1m of the population compared to 393k per 1m of the population in the US,

Having said that, if the virus is truly under control as they claim then the need for testing diminishes

 

Or a lack of testing diminishes the real spread and percentage of Covid patients,  or those infected but asymptomatic here in Thailand. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.  Go figure. Who is right, those that test or don't test.

[lkv]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Go figure. Who is right, those that test or don't test.

 Who tests ultimately. Japan is detecting imports from covid free China on a regular basis. Cannot find the Thai quota unfortunately, but cases of Thais have been detected.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4035477

 

Also, Taiwan is criticising China, saying it's impossible to have 10.9 million negative tests in Qingdao. So they are lying through their teeth. Just like Thailand.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4032922

 

"China's statistics on its confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths have resulted in much doubt, as they have been suspiciously low for such a populous country, currently in 49th place behind Portugal and ahead of Ethiopia. The speed with which China went from initially announcing human-to-human transmissions on Jan. 20 to declaring "zero" local infections on March 19 also raises many questions about the authenticity of China's reporting."

 

I know another country that stopped counting at roughly the same time with China at 80K+. Thailand at 3K+. Must have realised it's "bad for business" to be infected.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by lkv