Thai economy seen shrinking by single digit in third quarter - cenbank

By Kitiphong Thaichareon

 

FILE PHOTO: A woman wearing a mask as a protection against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) waits to cross the street during a rainy night at Ratchadamnoen Avenue in Bangkok, Thailand, August 22, 2020. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economic performance in the third quarter improved from the preceding three months, with GDP shrinking by a single digit as economic activity resumed after easing coronavirus restrictions, the central bank said on Friday.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy contracted 12.2% in the second quarter year-on-year, the sharpest fall in 22 years, as the pandemic pummelled tourism and consumption.

 

"The third quarter is still negative, but not a double digit contraction," Chayawadee Chai-Anant, senior director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), told a briefing. She gave no specific forecast.

 

Official third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data is due to be released on Nov. 16.

 

However, political uncertainty could undermine private sector confidence and a future economic recovery depending on developments, Chayawadee said.

 

Thailand has seen some of the biggest political protests in years in recent months calling for the removal of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, changes to the constitution and reforms to curb the powerful monarchy.

 

The BOT has forecast the economy will contract by a record 7.8% this year due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

In September, the economy recorded smaller falls in exports than in August, though tourism remained in a slump due to restrictions on foreign arrivals, the BOT said.

 

Exports, a key driver of growth, fell 4.2% in September from a year earlier after August's 8.2% drop.

 

September imports declined 8.1% from a year earlier, resulting in a trade surplus of $3.21 billion in the month.

 

Thailand recorded a current account surplus of $1.31 billion in September after a revised surplus of $3.12 billion the previous month.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-10-30

 

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And what happens when the numbers are not what they say they will be.  Will the books get cooked to save face.  How can GDP not at least be at a negative double digit with no tourism in the country.  Maybe the jump up is due to all of the millionaire Chinese tourists that have just arrived. They have saved the economy once again.  The baht is still soaring as well.

"The third quarter is still negative, but not a double digit contraction," Chayawadee Chai-Anant, senior director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), told a briefing. She gave no specific forecast.

 

That is the job of TAT

They come up every day with a new forecast.

Next week, they will say.

2021 looking marvellous.

69 Trillion visitors of China on their way.

All hotels booked in advance until 2032

10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And what happens when the numbers are not what they say they will be.  Will the books get cooked to save face.  How can GDP not at least be at a negative double digit with no tourism in the country.  Maybe the jump up is due to all of the millionaire Chinese tourists that have just arrived. They have saved the economy once again.  The baht is still soaring as well.

I’m thinking maybe tourism isn’t the be all, end all of the thai economy, much to the chagrin of the ‘the country needs us’ crowd 

To steal a term from the share market guys it could be "a dead cat bounce"  and next reporting period it's back to double digits.  Take rice for example: Thai rice is dearer than rice from India, Vietnam and Myanmar.  So with people on tight budgets how much longer do you think Thai rice will sell when the rice from those other countries can be as good and cheaper?

 

In Australia it's tough going for a lot of people, especially Victoria.  My son who works in the construction industry estimates a lot of big projects will be finished by next Easter.  Condo construction has already ground to a halt.  Maybe there will be 70% unemployed in construction by Easter.  So, given auto sales are way down already there is a large group of guys who will not be buying the new Revo or Ranger next year.  So the orders for Thai made pickups will plummet!

 

All across the board Thai industry is yet to see the worst of it...well that's my prediction for 2021.

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The BOT has forecast the economy will contract by a record 7.8% this year due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

I thought marijuana had only been approved for medical purposes ?