Thailand reports 427 new COVID-19 cases

[PGSan]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

subsequently found to be negative. 

So they did not create a cluster.   Good.  

But why then did someone claim that cluster was created in Cambridge by testing?

Or was that person misunderstanding what actually happened? 

[Blumpie]

My advice to you all is travel while you can and if it's recommended and legal.  Lockdowns SUCK!  The chances of you getting it are low.  

There is no doubt that this is going to probably get out of control.  It's spread enough now.  People are spreading it right now with no symptoms.  

[RickBradford]

7 minutes ago, PGSan said:

So they did not create a cluster.   Good.  

But why then did someone claim that cluster was created in Cambridge by testing?

Or was that person misunderstanding what actually happened? 

You misunderstand.

 

They tested 9000 returning students under standard procedures, and found 30 positives. But, being good scientists, and knowing the fallibility of PCR tests, they retested, and found no positives at all.

 

The media reported the 30 positives, thus creating a "cluster" in the popular imagination, where none existed in reality. 

[RickBradford]

23 minutes ago, PGSan said:

Maybe they are astute enough to take the false positive rate into account when reporting this data.

Given your suggested data, I would assume that they reported  this figure because they actually found 6 per thousand positives.  

 

Crazy I know, but it is just this type of clever stuff that us numerate types get paid mega-bucks to do.

Unfortunately, the genuinely numerate types understand that probability theory doesn't work like that, and "assuming" things because they feel right just doesn't work.

[Rocking Robert]

LOCKDOWNS. = fighting this disease with poverty and despair

[AMFWolfie]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand reports 427 new COVID-19 cases

 

 

Thai health officials on Monday confirmed 382 new COVID-19 cases.

 

Of the new cases, 397 were local transmissions, linked to the outbreak in Samut Sakhon, while 14 were from people on repatriation flights and in state quarantine centers

 

No new deaths were reported, while a further 25 people have been discharged from hospital.

 

Tuesday’s cases brings the total number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand to 5,716.

 

The Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration said the latest cases are from:

 

Switzerland - 1

Bahrain - 1

Pakistan - 3

Sudan - 2

Germany - 1

France - 1

Kuwait - 1

United States of America - 3

Pakistan - 1

Domestic cases

Saraburi - 3

Chachoengsao - 1

Bangkok - 5

Pathumthani - 2

Petchaburi - 1

Samut Prakarn - 2

Uttaradit - 1

Nakhon Pathom - 1

 

Active case finding in migrant workers - 397

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-12-22

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

Well it would help if all returning Thai nationals had to have a COVID test before boarding a flight! Boarding a plane without a proper swab test whilst the rest of the passengers have to have to had a certified test and fit to fly certificate 72 hours prior to flying! They can then happily infect other passengers on the same flight so when they have their first Covid test on day 5 of ASQ quarantine its no surprise they are coming back positive. One rule for one and one for incoming foreigners. UK let 2 million returning nationals in to the UK at the start of the pandemic with no test and no quarantine and we all know the outcome of that little blunder.. Just saying like...

[PGSan]

36 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

You misunderstand.

The media reported the 30 positives, thus creating a "cluster" in the popular imagination, where none existed in reality. 

Maybe I did, but I am trying to agree with you. ????

 

The poster  to whom you replied seems to believe that this “cluster” really exists. 

[PGSan]

2 minutes ago, AMFWolfie said:

Well it would help if all returning Thai nationals had to have a COVID test before boarding a flight! Boarding a plane without a proper swab test whilst the rest of the passengers have to have to had a certified test and fit to fly certificate 72 hours prior to flying! They can then happily infect other passengers on the same flight so when they have their first Covid test on day 5 of ASQ quarantine its no surprise they are coming back positive. One rule for one and one for incoming foreigners. UK let 2 million returning nationals in to the UK at the start of the pandemic with no test and no quarantine and we all know the outcome of that little blunder.. Just saying like...

Facts??? 

[PGSan]

30 minutes ago, Rocking Robert said:

LOCKDOWNS. = fighting this disease with poverty and despair

These two can conquer anything! 

[PGSan]

34 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

genuinely numerate types

 

Ate, those underpaid ones!  

 

Where did you study ‘probability theory’, or even ‘probability’ enough to state that the tests caused the Covid in Cambridge?   (I think, that was you?)  

 

Probability (all in the mind) works very beneficially for me, hope it does for you too. 

But it does not cause Covid, neither do tests. 

[hottrader77]

8 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

New Year parties and mass inter-provincial travel simply cannot be allowed now surely?

 

Must be at least a 14 day lockdown imminent.

best get christmas and new year festivals done and middle of jan before any lockdowns as police have to get their fines out there

[polpott]

15 minutes ago, hottrader77 said:

best get christmas and new year festivals done and middle of jan before any lockdowns as police have to get their fines out there

I've already started. Got a serious hangover today. At this rate I won't make it to New Year. Bring on the lockdown.

[DouglasTsui]

remain calm and just make sure your foodstocks are filled and air-cons in the apts/houses are in good working condition. Take care and God Bless always.

[sezze]

With the domestic cases spread out a bit all over , and very low testing you will know what will happen . How many they detect is difficult to say , but i would be surprised if it is above 5% . In Europe they were guessing in 1st wave that they had around 10% of the cases ( and they were testing more like they do in Thailand ) , now they are guessing they think they detect 30% .

So a single case detected reaches to 10-15 undetected ones . All after that depends on the factors of spreading , which we all know can be very high or very low .

 

[KhaoYai]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Active case finding in migrant workers - 397

So those 397 migrant workers don't have any contact with native Thais? Or were their contacts tested and ALL were negative? Both points very unlikely.

[KhaoYai]

2 hours ago, PGSan said:

Facts???

What he says is true.

 

My wife flew to the UK on a socially distanced Finnair flight - she returned to Thailand on a packed plane and two monks on the flight tested positive during quarantine.

 

Thai passengers on that flight only had to provide a Fit to Fly certificate whereas Foreigners also needed a negative PCR test result.

Edited December 22, 2020 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

Growing numbers of new infections are almost inevitable in Thailand.

 

This is just my personal belief - in no way am I any form of expert on this virus but............

 

Unless a country has a total, enforced lockdown with road blocks etc. - without their population vaccinated, they are very unikely to escape the spread of Covid 19.  Even countries that were very successful in containing the virus previously are now experiencing rising new infections - South Korea being a case in point. Thailand it seems, is on the cusp on a serious outbreak.

 

The virus relies on contact (in its various forms) to spread so its reasonable to think that if you stop all contact (virtually impossible), you stop the virus in its tracks.  However, just stopping most contact would surely keep things at a level that the country's health care can cope with?

 

Here in the UK, I wasn't sure what to expect after the first lockdown was announced. I thought the army might be called in to help the police ensure that people didn't break the rules, I at least expected some form of checks.  As it turned out, when I did need to go out I found there was nothing stopping me going anywhere I wanted.  Slowly people started ignoring the lockdown, supermarkets became less observant of their initial restrictions, parties and raves were widely reported on TV etc. etc. but very little enforcement action took place.  When the second lockdown came in, I couldn't see much difference to normal life.

 

Our leaders were on TV praising people for obeying the regulations and stating that most people were behaving well - that was not my experience though. Slowly, cases began to rise again.  We were told that young children are very unlikley to spread the virus and in September the schools opened again.  Anyone who's had kids will know that when their kids start school, they get every cold, flu, stomach bug etc. going and bring them home - they are simply just 'little spreading machines' so it seemed a little strange to me that the government was claiming that wasn't the case with Covid 19.  It did not seem strange to me though, that the latest increase in infection numbers began to rise sharply in September.

 

In some countries people rioted and protested against lockdown measures. Some refuse to wear masks, some behave as if there's no virus and some think its OK to do so because 'only old people die from Covid'.  So it would seem that a total, enforced lockdown is almost impossible to achieve, especially in the West where we are not used to being told what to do by our governments.

 

I honestly believe that Thai people are more likley than Westerners to follow any lockdown restrictions, just as they wore masks more readily but even so, there will always be those that don't - hence the Chiang Mai/Chiang Rai situation.

 

I think the only solution is to get moving with vaccine production. The current production levels seem to indicate that it will be towards the end of next year before everyone is able to be vaccinated so there's a strong case for increasing production.  Current producers can probably 'up' their levels or allow more licensed production by other manufacturers - which is probably already being negotiated behind the scenes, I understand that a Chinese company is producing the Pfizer vaccine for use in China for example.

 

But hold on,  it seems that a significant number of people are saying they will refuse the vaccine when its offered.  I don't see a solution then but I would like to see a policy of those refusing the vaccine being refused hospital treatment if they get the virus - that won't happen though, at least it won't in the West where we are just too damned soft.  I would go further, if I was an employer for example, I would not allow employees who refused the vaccine on my premises.

 

 

[blackcab]

Various posts and replies to them have been removed.

[Knobby37]

If the Burmese border is the issue then build a wall. Job done:-) 

[joebrown]

I heard yesterday morning that a local woman had tested positive for Covid 19, but put this down to 'Chinese Whispers'.

Later in the day I saw Thai TV news which confirmed what I thought was gossip. Apparently there are 3 positive cases in Nong Phai (Phetchabun) hospital, with several contacts/family members being accommodated for quarantine purposes.

It appears the original case is a seafood seller who either visited or took a delivery from the Samut Sakhon market.

[brewsterbudgen]

13 hours ago, AMFWolfie said:

Well it would help if all returning Thai nationals had to have a COVID test before boarding a flight! Boarding a plane without a proper swab test whilst the rest of the passengers have to have to had a certified test and fit to fly certificate 72 hours prior to flying! They can then happily infect other passengers on the same flight so when they have their first Covid test on day 5 of ASQ quarantine its no surprise they are coming back positive. One rule for one and one for incoming foreigners. UK let 2 million returning nationals in to the UK at the start of the pandemic with no test and no quarantine and we all know the outcome of that little blunder.. Just saying like...

So what would happen to a Thai who tests positive?  They can't be refused entry to Thailand.  I guess they'd have to be flown home in isolation!

[cyril sneer]

Any figures for today? Normally they’re in the Thai news by now 

[berrec]

On 12/22/2020 at 1:16 PM, fondue zoo said:

 

...more bad news, 2020 you can go to hell

 

 

 

Best to stay in the Food and Farming/Gardening forums, eating food and making food is much more cheerful

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 2021 will also be a bad start to the year!

 

[Meat Pie 47]

3 hours ago, cyril sneer said:

Any figures for today? Normally they’re in the Thai news by now 

90 today

[KhaoYai]

5 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

So what would happen to a Thai who tests positive?

Maybe they wouldn't put others at risk of dying.

 

It may be right and proper that all Thai nationals must be allowed to return but surely it would be better if someone who tested positive remained where they were until they are well again - rather than packing them into a plane and putting 300+ other people at risk?  They wouldn't be being refused entry - just delayed entry.

Edited December 23, 2020 by KhaoYai

[Tagged]

2 hours ago, berrec said:

January 2021 will also be a bad start to the year!

 

Frankly that is the best start of the new year. Give the world hope to come back to some kind of sanity and just by hear him speaking, you know it will. Good team he is building at the moment. 

[Kadilo]

On 12/22/2020 at 6:04 AM, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Yes, I am not going anywhere this Christmas or New year , not going to any parties or anything .

Nothing to do with Covid though .

I do that every year 

 

Hard to believe that you are not the number name on everyones party invite list. 

[LeamchabangLarry]

just <deleted> start shooting at anyone trying to sneak across the boarder.   enough is enough.

Edited December 23, 2020 by LeamchabangLarry
engrish

[nong38]

The more you test the more you find. Cases are not deaths, 99% recover and you need to take the figures in context, the number of deaths compared to the total population and the annual total number of deaths, it might also be worth looking at the number of deaths due explicitly to the virus compared to the number of people who have and will  soon lose their lively hood. So far in the UK 819,000 have lost their jobs and when the furlough finishes that will be enhanced by millions, lives affected.