a exercice in prospective for the future of UK-EU relationships

 

• <Brexit> remains a devastating loss to the EU, from which the full repercussions are yet to be seen
• joint borrowing on the financial markets as part of an effort to build up the EU’s €750bn Covid economic recovery fund: The Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Denmark – called “the frugals” – were forced to show their true colours after decades of hiding behind British veto about such great leaps towards convergence.
  • The link made between payments from Brussels and adherence to the rule of law among the member states – particularly relevant to Poland and Hungary – would have further posed a problem in Whitehall
  • It is questionable whether, in the face of inevitable British scepticism, the concept of the recovery fund would have been allowed to fly at all
• Brexit has been made tolerable by events. Now that it is done, there is nothing sentimental about Brussels’ approach to the future.
  • At the same meeting at which EU ambassadors gave the green light to the post-Brexit trade and security deal this week, they also signalled approval of an investment pact with China.
  • While Boris Johnson has talked of a “global Britain”, Ursula von der Leyen has been putting into action her pledge to lead a “geopolitical European commission”.
• The Brexiter vision of a nimble Britain, able to negotiate trade deals around the world that better play to the country’s strengths in services, and financial ones in particular
  • ... is very questionnable, until now, what we have seen is the very opposite
• Johnson’s claim that his deal "finally settles the European question"
  • there are many pointers to the opposite being true.
    • Great Britain now has the ability to diverge from EU environmental, social and labour regulatory standards, but in doing so it opens itself up to tariffs on exports into its biggest market.
    • The UK may close its waters to European fishing fleets in five and a half years, but there would be consequences in terms of a closure of the European market to British exporters.
• Northern Ireland’s assembly will vote in four years on whether the region should stay in the EU’s single market.
  • The Irish government has already said it will fund participation of the Erasmus+ student exchange programme for Northern Irish students after the British government opted not to pay for continued membership.
• Scottish independence. No part of Scotland backed Brexit.
  • But as a matter of EU law that an independent Scotland, newly acceded to the EU, would need to erect a full-fat customs border with England.
• There isn’t any obvious way back for the UK into the EU

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/01/political-demands-of-brexit-now-face-economic-reality

 

Edited January 1, 20215 yr by Hi from France

19 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Scotlands already been given a referendum and voted to stay,how many eu countries have been given an election if they want to stay or leave?

 

I think none.

 

The latest poll about it in Belgium was done in September 2019 and 82% wanted to stay.

 

Of course this is only a poll, a referendum would give the right results. 

 

I am in favor of a referendum, but with clear details/explanations what concretely "leave" and "remain" would represent for the Belgians.

 

This to avoid that everyone has his own speculation about what it will represent. 

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

According to this article there is interest in each member state holding referendums

Could Germans vote to exit the EU?

In the wake of Britain's Brexit vote, many Europeans think their country should also hold a national referendum on EU membership. For Germans, however, the hurdles are high.

. In a pre-Brexit poll of some 6,000 Europeans, 45 percent of the interviewees said their own country should hold a referendum on its EU membership.

https://www.dw.com/en/could-germans-vote-to-exit-the-eu/a-19365390

I am sure the EU would want to know what their citizens think about them and what they think about  their country membership of the EU wouldn't they

That was before the UK referendum. After that, this topic quickly became unpopular, I.e. Le Pen deleted it in her political program.

1 hour ago, kingdong said:

Scotlands already been given a referendum and voted to stay,how many eu countries have been given an election if they want to stay or leave?

Virtually every country!

1 hour ago, candide said:

That was before the UK referendum. After that, this topic quickly became unpopular, I.e. Le Pen deleted it in her political program.

as we said earlier, the main virtue of Brexit is that it has proved so disastrous that in the all of Europe, you do not have "credible" leavers parties anymore ... by "credible" I mean likely to access to power. *

 

This is the case of the french "extrême droite": as @candide says they have removed Frexit from their program because it appear so stupid and so disastrous they simply cannot run in the next election on this platform.

 

 

Now in the next 10 years, if Britain can pick itself back up again and if it does not disintegrate in the meantime, that might very well change.

 

Quite unlikely IMHO, but you never know. And there will be other external events, like machinations by Putin etc..

 

.

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by Hi from France

1 hour ago, candide said:

That was before the UK referendum. After that, this topic quickly became unpopular, I.e. Le Pen deleted it in her political program.

As far as I am aware Le Pen is only standing in France at the last count there is another 26 countries in the EU minus France

17 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

As far as I am aware Le Pen is only standing in France at the last count there is another 26 countries in the EU minus France

In Belgium there is only 1 party ( on the Flemish side ) which is anti E.U., they also want that Belgium start to exist, and the King must step down. 

 

In The Netherlands there is the party of Mr. Wilders, there are elections this year, the results will be very interesting to see what way the people want to go.

Mr. Rutte, is prime minister since 2010. 

 

In Italy 45% wants to leave the E.U. in 5 years time, if Brexit is a success.

 

In Germany, there is the "Alternative for Germany" which have actually 7 seats in the European Parliament.

38 minutes ago, luckyluke said:

In Belgium there is only 1 party ( on the Flemish side ) which is anti E.U., they also want that Belgium start to exist, and the King must step down. 

 

In The Netherlands there is the party of Mr. Wilders, there are elections this year, the results will be very interesting to see what way the people want to go.

Mr. Rutte, is prime minister since 2010. 

 

In Italy 45% wants to leave the E.U. in 5 years time, if Brexit is a success.

 

In Germany, there is the "Alternative for Germany" which have actually 7 seats in the European Parliament.

Frexit hasn't gone away just the main player has changed

Could ‘Frexit’ Be Next? Macron Urged To Make A French Referendum

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/31/could-frexit-be-next-macron-urged-referendum/

 

Personally I don't think any of the founding members will be next to leave, more likely to be one of the newcomers

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

7 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Frexit hasn't gone away just the main player has changed

Could ‘Frexit’ Be Next? Macron Urged To Make A French Referendum

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/31/could-frexit-be-next-macron-urged-referendum/

 

Personally I don't think any of the founding members will be next to leave, more likely to be one of the newcomers

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

Let’s wait until we see the ‘business point of view’ on the impacts of ‘Leaving’.

10 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

actually this is the Brits "transnational" vision of Europe limited to the Brexiteers accounting (often bad accounting btw) vision:

Yes if you look at membership fees vs. subsidies, there are countries who contribute more and countries who receive more .. but the EU is still a huge win-win for all, the single market is the best known but only one of many many perks which the UK lost (just replicating the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will cost you €360 million every year).

 

That we have said over and over and over ... Is there any way to get that into your thinking? ???? 

 

.

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by Hi from France

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Frexit hasn't gone away just the main player has changed

Could ‘Frexit’ Be Next? Macron Urged To Make A French Referendum

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/31/could-frexit-be-next-macron-urged-referendum/

 

Personally I don't think any of the founding members will be next to leave, more likely to be one of the newcomers

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

 

If a E.U. member, is a beneficiary one,

I think it is not that wise, to want to leave the Union.

13 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Frexit hasn't gone away just the main player has changed

Could ‘Frexit’ Be Next? Macron Urged To Make A French Referendum

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/31/could-frexit-be-next-macron-urged-referendum/

 

Personally I don't think any of the founding members will be next to leave, more likely to be one of the newcomers

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

The EU gathers a bunch of small weak nations, stronger together vs China, the US, Russia, the UK.. all nations wishing nothing but the EU to collapse. 

 

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by Opl

8 hours ago, david555 said:

Typicall brexiteers end line when there is no way of a winning  ..????

 

We have deal ...both happy ....i think ?

Or not so very happy ...? Boris is anyway selling it so  ...????????

As you are a non-Brit, it looks like you have no idea why the UK left the EU, plus, Boris didn't sell anything, the UK bought it 4 years earlier and are very happy it has now been delivered.

 

Your continual bash about the future price of UK cabbages does absolutely nothing to upset our BE day, nothing.  

Now please adjust your grey cells to take that on board. .....????....Thank you.....

 

12 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

actually this is the Brits "transnational" vision of Europe limited to the Brexiteers accounting (often bad accounting btw) vision:

Yes if you look at membership fees vs. subsidies, there are countries who contribute more and countries who receive more .. but the EU is still a huge win-win for all, the single market is the best known but only one of many many perks which the UK lost (just replicating the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will cost you €360 million every year).

 

That we have said over and over and over ... Is there any way to get that into your thinking? ???? 

 

.

Ireland has talked about irexit since Ireland became a net contributor in 2016, but I suspect either Poland or Hungary will be the 1st to go but not for a few years as they are still in fill your boots mode

4 hours ago, Hi from France said:

Clearly as soon as a government favorable to independence or exit from the EU is elected, there will be a referendum. 

 

and by the way, it will should be the same for Scotland, no?

They had one, a little before the Brexit vote, did you not know that.....

If you didn't, Scotland voted to keep the Union....

9 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Ireland has talked about irexit since Ireland became a net contributor in 2016, but I suspect either Poland or Hungary will be the 1st to go but not for a few years as they are still in fill your boots mode

if its true, just give us data: I remember the UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them ????

24 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

if its true, just give us data: I remember the UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them ????

Look forward to you providing a link not from the daily express where UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by vinny41
typo

10 hours ago, sandyf said:

Scotland  can only hope you keep on saying NO.

I don't think you have any worries on that score, not for a lifetime anyway.

 

Why you keep bringing Scotland into the equation is a total mystery to us all, did you mean the nasty SNP, are you happy with the way they have brought Scotland to its knees, how anyone can support Scottish nationalism when they gain support through lying and hating others is totally beyond comprehension.

48 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Look forward to you providing a link not from the daily express where UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them

OK so you have nothing to prove what you said and you ask me to do another research for you instead

“I have spent the last 40 years involved in international negotiations of one sort or another, and I have never seen a British government perform worse than they did in the four years of negotiations that concluded with the Christmas Eve Brexit deal”.

 

British blunders allowed the EU to get its way “on every major economic point” in the negotiation.

 

(Jonathan Powell, who was involved as a diplomat in negotiations on the return of Hong Kong to China and German reunification before taking a lead role in the Northern Irish peace process and later becoming David Cameron’s envoy to Libya........not someone who strikes me as an idiot)

 

.....but then who cares? We are now out of the evil clutches of Germany and France.

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by Surelynot

3 hours ago, Hi from France said:

actually this is the Brits "transnational" vision of Europe limited to the Brexiteers accounting (often bad accounting btw) vision:

Yes if you look at membership fees vs. subsidies, there are countries who contribute more and countries who receive more .. but the EU is still a huge win-win for all, the single market is the best known but only one of many many perks which the UK lost (just replicating the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will cost you €360 million every year).

 

That we have said over and over and over ... Is there any way to get that into your thinking? ???? 

 

.

 

The EMA was set up to harmonise the work of existing bodies across the EU, whether they have been successful or not is open to interpretation as each countries respective agencies still have their own agenda. One could argue that whilst well-intentioned, the EMA is a waste of tax-payers money.

The UK already has its own agency, the MHRA.

 

 

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Let’s wait until we see the ‘business point of view’ on the impacts of ‘Leaving’.

 

We've been seeing them for the last 5 years.

4 hours ago, Hi from France said:

actually this is the Brits "transnational" vision of Europe limited to the Brexiteers accounting (often bad accounting btw) vision:

Yes if you look at membership fees vs. subsidies, there are countries who contribute more and countries who receive more .. but the EU is still a huge win-win for all, the single market is the best known but only one of many many perks which the UK lost (just replicating the European Medicines Agency (EMA) will cost you €360 million every year).

 

That we have said over and over and over ... Is there any way to get that into your thinking? ???? 

 

.

 

Nope. Next.

5 hours ago, Hi from France said:

if its true, just give us data: I remember the UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them ????

 

5 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Look forward to you providing a link not from the daily express where UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them

 

4 hours ago, Hi from France said:

OK so you have nothing to prove what you said and you ask me to do another research for you instead

They see enough support for an Irexit party in Ireland, particularly given that the Irish public are paying more into the EU than the country is getting out.

“People are kind of waking up to what it means to them, how much it is going to cost them, how much they have lost,” she said.

“We are a net contributor. We don’t get anything back from the union. It costs us money to stay in.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irexit-conference-i-am-hoping-something-comes-of-this-1.3379392

 

Irexit conference 2018

 

As stated look forward to you providing a link to support your statement "where UK naively expected Ireland to leave the European Union with them"

You made the statement so its down to you do the research to backup your statement

3 hours ago, Surelynot said:

“I have spent the last 40 years involved in international negotiations of one sort or another, and I have never seen a British government perform worse than they did in the four years of negotiations that concluded with the Christmas Eve Brexit deal”.

 

British blunders allowed the EU to get its way “on every major economic point” in the negotiation.

 

(Jonathan Powell, who was involved as a diplomat in negotiations on the return of Hong Kong to China and German reunification before taking a lead role in the Northern Irish peace process and later becoming David Cameron’s envoy to Libya........not someone who strikes me as an idiot)

 

.....but then who cares? We are now out of the evil clutches of Germany and France.

Here the link that you forgot to provide

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-trade-eu-jonathan-powell-b1780810.html

Also I noticed that you failed to mention that Jonathan Powell, was Tony Blair’s former chief of staff which we would have known if you had provided a link to your cut and paste

6 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Frexit hasn't gone away just the main player has changed

Could ‘Frexit’ Be Next? Macron Urged To Make A French Referendum

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/31/could-frexit-be-next-macron-urged-referendum/

 

Personally I don't think any of the founding members will be next to leave, more likely to be one of the newcomers

If you look at the EU project purely from a business point of view then once your country becomes a net contributor then it becomes a decision of cash in your chips once you have fill your boots

You forgot to mention an important information:

President Macron of France has been urged by Charles-Henri Gallois, the President of Generation Frexit, ????

That guy is completely unknown and represents no-one.

Edited January 2, 20215 yr by candide

Quote

“We are a net contributor. We don’t get anything back from the union. It costs us money to stay in.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irexit-conference-i-am-hoping-something-comes-of-this-1.3379392

Well what the heck are they in it for? I shake my head.

6 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Ireland has talked about irexit since Ireland became a net contributor in 2016, but I suspect either Poland or Hungary will be the 1st to go but not for a few years as they are still in fill your boots mode

They won't leave, at least for one reason: Russia. 

23 minutes ago, candide said:

You forgot to mention an important information:

President Macron of France has been urged by Charles-Henri Gallois, the President of Generation Frexit, ????

That guy is completely unknown and represents no-one.

Maybe not known to you but a google search indicates a return of 797,000 results

17 minutes ago, candide said:

They won't leave, at least for one reason: Russia. 

Defence wise they are more likely to get assistance from Nato as they are both Nato members than from anything from the EU