Rise in Thai export market reliant on supply of Covid-19 vaccine, value of baht

By The Nation

 

Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies

 

Thailand’s export market this year has been forecast to expand 3.6 per cent to US$237.2 billion provided the global economy and the economies of trading partners recover, said Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

 

This forecast is also based on the scenario that up to 40 per cent of the world’s population is inoculated against Covid-19 and the vaccine is effective in preventing infections.

 

The other positive factor is that Thailand is now a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – the world’s largest free-trade agreement.

 

However, if the vaccine supply fails to cover 40 per cent of the global population, then export could contract 0.8 per cent.

 

Risk factors this year include inadequate vaccine supply and further strengthening of the baht. It is estimated that a 1 per cent rise of the baht will shave 0.11 per cent off the value of exports. If the baht stays at Bt30 per US dollar, then it will bring the value of exports down by 0.5 per cent or by US$1.039 billion.

 

Other risk factors are a shortage of containers, which will boost the cost of exports by three to five times.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30401249

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2021-01-15

 

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20 minutes ago, webfact said:

This forecast is also based on the scenario that up to 40 per cent of the world’s population is inoculated against Covid-19 and the vaccine is effective in preventing infections.

If you're gonna dream, may as well dream big I suppose.

Is that 40% of Thais as well ? but on more positive news the container shortage has been solved there are loads of them deployed blocking Bangkok streets sporadically ????

He’s right about a rising currency hurting exports.  Too bad he doesn’t work for the Bank of Thailand.  They just don’t get it.

Interesting he doesn't mention the consequences of political unrest!

12 hours ago, webfact said:

This forecast is also based on the scenario that up to 40 per cent of the world’s population is inoculated against Covid-19 and the vaccine is effective in preventing infections.

 

In real numbers, this means that 3.12 BILLION people need to receive two doses each before Thailand's exports increase.

 

I'm sorry, but did I miss the announcement that 6.24 Billion doses are being readied to ship?