Simmering political conflict threatens to derail Thailand’s COVID recovery

[rooster59]

Simmering political conflict threatens to derail Thailand’s COVID recovery

A woman cycles past a closed seafood restaurant along Patong beach in Phuket, which has seen a lack of tourists due to ongoing restrictions relating to the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
 

Political stability has a key influence over a country’s economic performance both in the short and the long term.

In Thailand, anti-establishment protests that kicked off last year are rocking political stability, adding to the business community’s worries.

The economy shrank 6.1 per cent last year under the impact of COVID-19, with no more than 3 per cent growth expected this year.

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/simmering-political-conflict-threatens-to-derail-thailands-covid-recovery/

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-03-14

 

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[PatOngo]

Foreign investors are also worried about political instability and have called on the government to solve the problem in order to boost investor confidence.

Will they bring out the tanks?

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

The economy shrank 6.1 per cent last year under the impact of COVID-19, with no more than 3 per cent growth expected this year.

I would even think a 3 percent growth would be suspect.  Hard to grow the economy if exports have a hard time getting out, companies are downsizing, and then the lack of tourism at a level that would bring in money on all fronts.  However, I see that in Bangkok all the bar areas and entertainment venues were in full swing and the large bar next to the Imperial World Lad Prao Big C location that also serves as large music venue was packed and full last night.  It is where the big groups play and where I watched Sek Loso last year.  Lets see what occurs even with a vaccination program that looks to be in tatters.

[Samui Bodoh]

Interesting article. I would encourage members to go to the full article as the summary doesn't do justice to the ideas presented. There is one point that really stands out to me...

"“And if the political system remains closed to change, talented youth may look for opportunities in other countries,” he added."

This is a serious long-term threat to Thailand's future prosperity. The youths leading today's demonstrations, whether you agree with them or not, are a generation of leaders which really can't be replaced and will constitute a great loss for future development. Thailand's future leadership will come about in two ways; they will be either children of the rich, connected and currently powerful or they will be 'outsiders' who rise on their merits. The first group, the proverbial 'Princelings', will have wealth and power without going through the trouble of acquiring it for themselves, but rather will have it handed to them (Red Bull Heir, anyone?). The cumulative effect of a generation of 'leaders' being handed power and authority will mean a generation of people who simply do not understand life without it, and thus will not have the experience(s) needed to create conditions for others to thrive. Yes, there will be exceptions to this phenomenon, but they will be exceptions. Yes, I do recall the famous phrase "Let them eat cake". 

The generations of leaders who rise though their own merits, or through luck, or through other circumstances, are the ones who would bring an understanding of what is needed for others to get ahead. This understanding is key to a public policy whereby 'outsiders' can do well, and these people in turn greatly benefit the country by bringing new ideas, new methods, in creating conditions for new opportunities and allowing a society to re-invent/replenish itself. Take these people out of a country's future development and all you have remaining is the 'wet blanket' of entrenched privilege, something Thailand already has too much of. 

"“If we put a large number of our youth behind bars, we will freeze our country’s future prosperity,” said Move Forward Party MP Rangsiman Rome. Amnesty International Thailand says 382 protest leaders and demonstrators have been charged or jailed since 2020."

A good number of these 320 people (with many more seemingly to end up charged sooner rather than later) are Thailand's potential future leaders in Business, Politics, the Labour movement, the Arts, the Sciences, etc. If many of these 320 people/leaders don't rise to become contributing members of future society, then the people who do rise will be the 'second-raters' which, in today's interconnected world, will mean that Thailand will not be able to attain its potential; it will forever remain a 'nice place for a holiday' with 'hot women', 'nice beaches' and 'good food', but nothing more than that.

Societies need to replenish themselves and new generations of leaders need to rise up if a country expects a bright future. Should Thailand entrust its future solely to the hands of the 'Princelings', the second-generation Bureaucrat, the second-generation General, the second-generation CEO, the second-generation Leader, then it can expect a 'Second-Level' future and watch its neighbours pass it by.

It is sad to see the waste of potential here. I recall the 90's and early 2000's where the whole world was watching Thailand to see what heights it would reach and how it would develop into its own version of a modern, affluent, well-run and admired country. 

No one is watching for that now...

 

[mtls2005]

Yes, simmering political conflict is just so new to Thailand.

 

A constitutional government was organized in 1932. 

 

Within a year, almost to the day, a coup was executed (more of a counter-coup against Pridi).

 

Until very basic issues are acknowledged and addressed, not much will change.

 

 

[klauskunkel]

from the article:

"Foreign investors are also worried about political instability and have called on the government to solve the problem in order to boost investor confidence."

This government does not know how to solve problems, only how to create them.

 

[internationalism]

so, having vax program based only on one, locally made vials,  by a company without experience in such production, might end up badly, if there are problems with delays, quantity and quality. Siam bioscience was selected not on their merit, but by connections.

second issue are illegal immigrants crossing borders in every possible direction, while officials are involved in human trafficking and while border police are in bangkok watching students.

thirdly, opening borders to travel and tourism, while local population is not vaccinated and doesn't have much heard immunity, will bring many more waves, with new strains from the UK, brasil, south africa, and elsewhere, for which astrazeneca might not work.

Sinovac is not given fast enough - within the last 2 weeks only some 35k (out of 200k imported) were given, and only some 3-4k were given to medics. Health workers are priority, but instead it goes to local officials, who pushed themselves on the list.

So it's difficult to talk about recovery and progress, if those problems are not addressed.

The present political elite came to power through a military coup back in 2006 and 2014, supported by the feudalists and conglomerates . They have reverted democratisation process and thailand became an autocratic country. Corruption rose within those years. Economic development stalled by conglomerates controlling all industries. 

New political wave is emerging, educated on internet and organised by social media, but which are outside parliament and outside political parties. Simply because legal political activity is controlled by the state. They are young, educated, speak languages, do travel and know an outside world. They are able to open thailand, now stifled by nationalistic geriatrics. 

 

[khunPer]

Political stability has always been the key factor for financial success. The political system is not as important as stability, investors wish to be able to plan ahead, and at least for three to five years, which is often the target to recover the investment and begin to earn a gain.

[hotchilli]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Political stability has a key influence over a country’s economic performance both in the short and the long term.

The governments handling of the protests can have an equal affect on the economy

[Mayhem11]

Let the chips lie where they fall.

[Ketyo]

There is a reason Myanmar was once rich but now is poor. Military dictatorships. What does an army General know about running a country? Only control, enforcement and using the institutions of state to syphon off the wealth of the people for himself and his cronies. Nothing about people's rights to choose who governs then or to speak their opinion freely without being arrested. What does the head of the airforce know about running a finance ministry. Jack sh*t. Stability does not make a country rich. Russia, Laos, Vietnam, China and Cambodia are all relatively poor for a reason. Corrupt dictatorships.

[RichardColeman]

11 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Foreign investors are also worried about political instability and have called on the government to solve the problem in order to boost investor confidence.

Will they bring out the tanks?

No, they will just wag their fingers sternly at themselves

[Maitdjai]

12 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Interesting article. I would encourage members to go to the full article as the summary doesn't do justice to the ideas presented. There is one point that really stands out to me...

"“And if the political system remains closed to change, talented youth may look for opportunities in other countries,” he added."

This is a serious long-term threat to Thailand's future prosperity. The youths leading today's demonstrations, whether you agree with them or not, are a generation of leaders which really can't be replaced and will constitute a great loss for future development. Thailand's future leadership will come about in two ways; they will be either children of the rich, connected and currently powerful or they will be 'outsiders' who rise on their merits. The first group, the proverbial 'Princelings', will have wealth and power without going through the trouble of acquiring it for themselves, but rather will have it handed to them (Red Bull Heir, anyone?). The cumulative effect of a generation of 'leaders' being handed power and authority will mean a generation of people who simply do not understand life without it, and thus will not have the experience(s) needed to create conditions for others to thrive. Yes, there will be exceptions to this phenomenon, but they will be exceptions. Yes, I do recall the famous phrase "Let them eat cake". 

The generations of leaders who rise though their own merits, or through luck, or through other circumstances, are the ones who would bring an understanding of what is needed for others to get ahead. This understanding is key to a public policy whereby 'outsiders' can do well, and these people in turn greatly benefit the country by bringing new ideas, new methods, in creating conditions for new opportunities and allowing a society to re-invent/replenish itself. Take these people out of a country's future development and all you have remaining is the 'wet blanket' of entrenched privilege, something Thailand already has too much of. 

"“If we put a large number of our youth behind bars, we will freeze our country’s future prosperity,” said Move Forward Party MP Rangsiman Rome. Amnesty International Thailand says 382 protest leaders and demonstrators have been charged or jailed since 2020."

A good number of these 320 people (with many more seemingly to end up charged sooner rather than later) are Thailand's potential future leaders in Business, Politics, the Labour movement, the Arts, the Sciences, etc. If many of these 320 people/leaders don't rise to become contributing members of future society, then the people who do rise will be the 'second-raters' which, in today's interconnected world, will mean that Thailand will not be able to attain its potential; it will forever remain a 'nice place for a holiday' with 'hot women', 'nice beaches' and 'good food', but nothing more than that.

Societies need to replenish themselves and new generations of leaders need to rise up if a country expects a bright future. Should Thailand entrust its future solely to the hands of the 'Princelings', the second-generation Bureaucrat, the second-generation General, the second-generation CEO, the second-generation Leader, then it can expect a 'Second-Level' future and watch its neighbours pass it by.

It is sad to see the waste of potential here. I recall the 90's and early 2000's where the whole world was watching Thailand to see what heights it would reach and how it would develop into its own version of a modern, affluent, well-run and admired country. 

No one is watching for that now...

 

The development, which you mentioned in the last chapter, was deliberatly turned off. The down/back-bound train started with an occupied airport in 2010, and took real speed in 2014. 

COVID crashed the train just quicker, than the conductors...

At least, there's something to blame at the end. In the "new" 4.0- land of hubs. But that's a part of the process.

Quicker, slower, or never...

[herwin1234]

14 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Interesting article. I would encourage members to go to the full article as the summary doesn't do justice to the ideas presented. There is one point that really stands out to me...

"“And if the political system remains closed to change, talented youth may look for opportunities in other countries,” he added."

This is a serious long-term threat to Thailand's future prosperity. The youths leading today's demonstrations, whether you agree with them or not, are a generation of leaders which really can't be replaced and will constitute a great loss for future development. Thailand's future leadership will come about in two ways; they will be either children of the rich, connected and currently powerful or they will be 'outsiders' who rise on their merits. The first group, the proverbial 'Princelings', will have wealth and power without going through the trouble of acquiring it for themselves, but rather will have it handed to them (Red Bull Heir, anyone?). The cumulative effect of a generation of 'leaders' being handed power and authority will mean a generation of people who simply do not understand life without it, and thus will not have the experience(s) needed to create conditions for others to thrive. Yes, there will be exceptions to this phenomenon, but they will be exceptions. Yes, I do recall the famous phrase "Let them eat cake". 

The generations of leaders who rise though their own merits, or through luck, or through other circumstances, are the ones who would bring an understanding of what is needed for others to get ahead. This understanding is key to a public policy whereby 'outsiders' can do well, and these people in turn greatly benefit the country by bringing new ideas, new methods, in creating conditions for new opportunities and allowing a society to re-invent/replenish itself. Take these people out of a country's future development and all you have remaining is the 'wet blanket' of entrenched privilege, something Thailand already has too much of. 

"“If we put a large number of our youth behind bars, we will freeze our country’s future prosperity,” said Move Forward Party MP Rangsiman Rome. Amnesty International Thailand says 382 protest leaders and demonstrators have been charged or jailed since 2020."

A good number of these 320 people (with many more seemingly to end up charged sooner rather than later) are Thailand's potential future leaders in Business, Politics, the Labour movement, the Arts, the Sciences, etc. If many of these 320 people/leaders don't rise to become contributing members of future society, then the people who do rise will be the 'second-raters' which, in today's interconnected world, will mean that Thailand will not be able to attain its potential; it will forever remain a 'nice place for a holiday' with 'hot women', 'nice beaches' and 'good food', but nothing more than that.

Societies need to replenish themselves and new generations of leaders need to rise up if a country expects a bright future. Should Thailand entrust its future solely to the hands of the 'Princelings', the second-generation Bureaucrat, the second-generation General, the second-generation CEO, the second-generation Leader, then it can expect a 'Second-Level' future and watch its neighbours pass it by.

It is sad to see the waste of potential here. I recall the 90's and early 2000's where the whole world was watching Thailand to see what heights it would reach and how it would develop into its own version of a modern, affluent, well-run and admired country. 

No one is watching for that now...

 

i hardly think that the protesters of today are the excellent students who will be tomorows leaders.

if anything, these protesters are second rate students, marginal students who find their 5 minutes of fame in protests.

[timendres]

1 hour ago, herwin1234 said:

i hardly think that the protesters of today are the excellent students who will be tomorows leaders.

if anything, these protesters are second rate students, marginal students who find their 5 minutes of fame in protests.

I assume you say this having met with them to gauge their mediocrity. In my opinion, their demonstrated ability to out-maneuver the police, alone, demonstrates the likelihood of their being better future leaders.

[Venom]

Quite frankly I'm shocked this thread is open for comments.????

[VocalNeal]

On 3/14/2021 at 7:24 AM, PatOngo said:

Foreign investors are also worried about political instability and have called on the government to solve the problem in order to boost investor confidence.

Will they bring out the tanks?

The army ones or the police ones?

[mtls2005]

9 hours ago, herwin1234 said:

i hardly think that the protesters of today are the excellent students who will be tomorows leaders.

if anything, these protesters are second rate students, marginal students who find their 5 minutes of fame in protests.

 

Of course this applies equally to the Bangkok Shutdown crew circa 2013/2014.

 

 

 

 

[biggles45]

if anything, these protesters are second rate students, marginal students who find their 5 minutes of fame in protests.'

You have been exposed to too many western protesters, BLM, Climate change etc. Its all about being part of the' In crowd' and a good day out with friends with little consequence. 

These young people are risking long jail sentences and imprisonment by a ruthless regime determined to hang on to power. I salute them. 

[mbenson]

On 3/14/2021 at 1:51 PM, timendres said:

I assume you say this having met with them to gauge their mediocrity. In my opinion, their demonstrated ability to out-maneuver the police, alone, demonstrates the likelihood of their being better future leaders.

Yep. In addition, they are organizers, disruptors, committed, and very, very brave. Sounds like progressive leadership to me.

[sammieuk1]

I see only flipflop manufactures able to cope with with this simmering ????