Mutations could render current Covid vaccines ineffective in a year or less

[gargamon]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/mutations-could-make-current-covid-vaccines-ineffective-soon-survey.html

 

• Mutations of the coronavirus could render current vaccines ineffective in a year or less, according to a survey of experts.
• Two-thirds of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease surveyed across 28 countries thought that we had “a year or less before the virus mutates to the extent that the majority of first-generation vaccines are rendered ineffective and new or modified vaccines are required.”

Edited March 30, 2021 by blackcab
White on black text removed.

[Jillie Norman]

Oh, boy. I knew this is coming. 

[Moonlover]

So, when they start to see '2nd generation' virus's, they'll begin to produce '2nd generation' vaccines.

 

From what I've gleaned from a number interesting programmes, this not unexpected and it is not a difficult task to 'tweak' a vaccine to make it effective again.

 

Ok, so we might have to go back for another shot. Big deal!

[internationalism]

moderna said their vax should work for about a year, so booster is expected after that time.

 

takes some up to 6 weeks to tweak a vax, like astrazeneca, to a new strain. Probably they will have to do it continuously  

[daveAustin]

Inevitable. Worse for flu, which can completely alter the genome by all accounts. They will just have to keep tweaking.

[rabas]

Although 'tweaking' a vaccine sounds easy, the full cycle time from variant birth to vaccine in arm can be a long haul.

 

The time to study and decide which variants  to target can take a long time  as we now see. Then there is redesign, surely some testing/approval, manufacture, and distribution, not to mention corporate financial decisions.  A year is enough but for now the virus waves are coming faster.

 

At least for a while it may be more like a dog chasing its tail. Mutations are learning to evade immunity from previous covid-19 infections (Brazil P.1) as well as vaccines(S. Africa).

 

Interesting article from Nature in January.    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00241-6

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Although 'tweaking' a vaccine sounds easy, the full cycle time from variant birth to vaccine in arm can be a long haul.

 

The time to study and decide which variants  to target can take a long time  as we now see. Then there is redesign, surely some testing/approval, manufacture, and distribution, not to mention corporate financial decisions.  A year is enough but for now the virus waves are coming faster.

 

At least for a while it may be more like a dog chasing its tail. Mutations are learning to evade immunity from previous covid-19 infections (Brazil P.1) as well as vaccines(S. Africa).

 

Interesting article from Nature in January.    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00241-6

But are the people who get reinfected becoming seriously ill and even dying? As I understand it, that's not the case. At least so far.

[LosLobo]

18 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But are the people who get reinfected becoming seriously ill and even dying? As I understand it, that's not the case. At least so far.

 

But scientists say reinfections will be very mild compared to primary infections

 

Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India - BBC News

 

 

[rabas]

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But are the people who get reinfected becoming seriously ill and even dying? As I understand it, that's not the case. At least so far.

 

I was referring to the Brazilian P.1 variant, which evolved in a region that already had an estimated 75% immunity.  P.1 is not mild, in fact they are finding higher death rates in younger people (another thread).  If reinfections were mild, many cases would not be detected and  there would be no devastating 2nd wave surge.

 

The following comment is about the region that already had immunity:

 

"In December 2020 a second wave did hit. [P.1] And by January the city’s health system, which serves communities across the Amazon, had collapsed. "

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-city-in-brazils-amazon-rain-forest-is-a-stark-warning-about-covid-to-the-rest-of-the-world/

Edited March 31, 2021 by rabas

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

I was referring to the Brazilian P.1 variant, which evolved in a region that already had an estimated 75% immunity. I don't think P.1 is very mild, in fact they are finding higher death rates in younger people (another thread).  If reinfections were mild, many cases would not be detected and  there would be no devastating 2nd wave surge.

 

"In December 2020 a second wave did hit. [P.1] And by January the city’s health system, which serves communities across the Amazon, had collapsed. "

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-city-in-brazils-amazon-rain-forest-is-a-stark-warning-about-covid-to-the-rest-of-the-world/

That assertion of yours only works if most of the population has already been infected. Do you have any figures to support that?

And since so many infected people have had symptoms, so we know that they were previously infected, any reports on any of them becoming seriously ill or even dying?

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

That assertion of yours only works if most of the population has already been infected. Do you have any figures to support that?

And since so many infected people have had symptoms, so we know that they were previously infected, any reports on any of them becoming seriously ill or even dying?

 

They were, 75%. The first city in the world to achieve herd immunity, they said. Read the attached article from Scientific American.

 

"any reports on any of them becoming seriously ill or even dying?"

 

Yes, their hospital system collapsed. You are not reading what I wrote. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by rabas

[LosLobo]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

That assertion of yours only works if most of the population has already been infected. Do you have any figures to support that?

And since so many infected people have had symptoms, so we know that they were previously infected, any reports on any of them becoming seriously ill or even dying?

The posted article from Scientific American states "There have been only three confirmed instances of P.1 reinfection".

 

Hardly a good sample to base any conclusions on!

[rabas]

13 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

The posted article from Scientific American states "There have been only three confirmed instances of P.1 reinfection".

 

Hardly a good sample to base any conclusions on!

You need to consider the whole statment.

 

More concerning is evidence that the Manaus variant is better able to evade antibodies. The same CADDE study estimated that P.1 dodges 25 to 61 percent of protective immunity gained from infection with earlier variants. There have been only three confirmed instances of P.1 reinfection, but cases are difficult to find and verify, Resende says.

 

Granted, they do not suggest no protection form prior infections. OTH, the collapse of the health system in a region that already had 75% infections is not encouraging.  I would not write write home and say no problem.

 

Edited March 31, 2021 by rabas

[LosLobo]

What is concerning to me is that Thailand is basing re-opening on Astrazeneca which has only 10% efficacy for mild or moderate symptoms for the African variant.

 

Hardly any protection against transmission.

 

The tweaked update of Astrazeneca will not be available for another six months.

 

I cannot see a safe re-opening this year.

[huangnon]

Quelle surprise. We will be dependent on Big Pharma to "protect" us forever more. ????

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, huangnon said:

Quelle surprise. We will be dependent on Big Pharma to "protect" us forever more. ????

No change there, we are already, anytime you get sick and require medication

[cmarshall]

10 hours ago, internationalism said:

moderna said their vax should work for about a year, so booster is expected after that time.

 

takes some up to 6 weeks to tweak a vax, like astrazeneca, to a new strain. Probably they will have to do it continuously  

 

But the fact is that is no more than a guess.  No one knows how long vaccine immunity will last even in the absence of new strains.

[cormanr7]

As already intimated in a post above, vaccine makers are running behind the facts. And if you believe that it takes just a few weeks to change to a different vaccine composition on an industrial scale you must be deluded. There are attempts to predict future mutations by application of AI  by various groups: https://observer.com/2021/03/artificial-intelligence-predicting-covid-19-strains-developing-treatments/.  In theory, vaccine makers might get ahead of the virus if they would be willing to take the risks and the predictions are accurate.

In the mean-time it has been announced that in the UK, people in the first four vaccination groups may get a third shot as early as September. Details as to the nature/origin of the vaccine(s) for this booster shot are vague https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/27/covid-booster-shots-could-go-to-at-risk-groups-in-september-uk-vaccines-minister.