Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[Joinaman]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Why would I want to show otherwise, it was your claim and I was just asking you to support it, thanks, you can't

why would i need to support it

 

16 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Over the past year I doubt I've seen more than a dozen or so people not wearing a mask. Maybe Bangkok, where I'm not, or Pattaya where I'm not, are different. As to why so few deaths, do you think that closing the borders almost from day one might have had something to do with it. Like in several other SE Asian countries which have also kept the figures down.

 

It is only recently that we've heard about people crossing the local borders, with or without the help of corrupt officials, with the result that Thailand can now, by allowing outsiders in, follow other countries in having an escalating crisis - ably assisted by a government that encouraged people to travel out of red zones to the provinces. It's almost as if they wished thousands to perish. Time will tell if they have succeeded.

I made a statement, that , unless you can prove otherwise, must be taken as true.

You cannot disprove my statement so therefore it must be true 

[Bangkok Barry]

7 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

I made a statement, that , unless you can prove otherwise, must be taken as true.

You cannot disprove my statement so therefore it must be true 

 

I saw a large green frog jump over the moon last night.

 

I made a statement, that, unless you can prove otherwise, it must be taken as true. You cannot disprove my statement so therefore it must be true.

 

Just curious. What planet are you from?

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

I saw a large green frog jump over the moon last night.

 

I made a statement, that, unless you can prove otherwise, it must be taken as true. You cannot disprove my statement so therefore it must be true.

 

Just curious. What planet are you from?

Government planet, launched from the first rocket I suspect.  Anyone who says something in contrast to what a government supporter likes gets the doublespeak.

[Jiggo]

So what happened to that magic bubble over Thailand that lead so many Thais to quote ''No Covid in Thailand'' 

[elliss]

23 hours ago, schvonsky1 said:

Just get the nation vaccinated stop been numbskulls it’s that simple 

 

 What vaccine , source . credibility.?

    Simplicity .  You  win ....

    

[mlmcleod]

20 hours ago, Joinaman said:

control what, exactly ?

Infections, ?

doing nothing seems to be working very well so far, 16 months and so few deaths

why spend billions on semi useless vaccines to save so few lives ?

better to spend billions on preventing road deaths and liver fluke cancers, that effects almost every family in Thailand, rather than what appears to be nothing worse than the flu to the Thai population 

Are you serious?  That is the same attitude that allowed Covid to spread all over the USA during the Trump administration!

[DLock]

On 4/12/2021 at 9:17 PM, todlad said:

My point is this: you have done something impossible by making a forecast. Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong.

 

What you did was to decry a model you have never read and then offered a guess as your alternative. A guess based on almost nothing.

 

So, I saw an opportunity to help you out a little. For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better and looked much less of a gainsayer.

 

Now you're saying I am going to look foolish if your virtually blind guess turns out to be somewhere near at one point in time.

 

The DDC report is clearly a scenario based document and the scenarios seem to cover a longer period than your "Thursday of this week" approach. Taking a longer view, they will probably also get the answer right: will you feel foolish when that happens?

 

Thought not.

 

Oh my.

 

My "forecast" of 1,300 in 3 days is pretty much spot on.

 

All your calling me out that that "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong" kind of backfired.

 

And your "I saw an opportunity to help you out a little" was clearly not needed, and "For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better", was also unnecessary.

 

So, where does the number go from here, Champ. Care to make a guess?

 

Or still to scared to pin the tail on the donkey?

[jak2002003]

15 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

Oh my.

 

My "forecast" of 1,300 in 3 days is pretty much spot on.

 

All your calling me out that that "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong" kind of backfired.

 

And your "I saw an opportunity to help you out a little" was clearly not needed, and "For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better", was also unnecessary.

 

So, where does the number go from here, Champ. Care to make a guess?

 

Or still to scared to pin the tail on the donkey?

Well done my friend. ????

[Joinaman]

2 hours ago, mlmcleod said:

Are you serious?  That is the same attitude that allowed Covid to spread all over the USA during the Trump administration!

But it's worked so far, has it not ?

I would have thought  that 97 deaths over 16 months, while no vaccines and doing very little is a very good outcome, 

And this is Thailand, not the good old US of A, so no comparison

Why do we have many thousands of infections here in Thailand, yet so few deaths ?

[todlad]

34 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

Oh my.

 

My "forecast" of 1,300 in 3 days is pretty much spot on.

 

All your calling me out that that "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong" kind of backfired.

 

And your "I saw an opportunity to help you out a little" was clearly not needed, and "For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better", was also unnecessary.

 

So, where does the number go from here, Champ. Care to make a guess?

 

Or still to scared to pin the tail on the donkey?

What do you think I am afraid of? 

 

I really do find it astonishing that you prove my point that forecasts are always wrong and yet claim victory with an inaccurate number. Weird.

 

I haven't seen today's number for Thailand and don't quote it accurately.

[DLock]

4 hours ago, todlad said:

What do you think I am afraid of? 

 

I really do find it astonishing that you prove my point that forecasts are always wrong and yet claim victory with an inaccurate number. Weird.

 

I haven't seen today's number for Thailand and don't quote it accurately.

 

Today's numbers were 1,335, but I'm sure you know that by now. My guess was 1,300 by today. You tried to formalize it will the word "forecast", but it was just a best guess.

 

You see Kid, when you have the audacity to call someone's "guess" out as having no credibility because it did not consider the DDC report and that all forecasts are wrong, and he gets it right (within 3%), you have to be willing to admit that his guess was pretty good. 

 

But we all know that you won't do that, because I didn't nail exactly 1,300. You don't have it in you.

 

So, I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself. Guess the Thailand COVID19 positive number on Friday (announced Friday), and the winner can donate that amount to charity of their choice. Any amount is fine. Since I went first last time, go ahead, Champ, make a "guess". Closest guess wins.

[todlad]

2 hours ago, DLock said:

 

Today's numbers were 1,335, but I'm sure you know that by now. My guess was 1,300 by today. You tried to formalize it will the word "forecast", but it was just a best guess.

 

You see Kid, when you have the audacity to call someone's "guess" out as having no credibility because it did not consider the DDC report and that all forecasts are wrong, and he gets it right (within 3%), you have to be willing to admit that his guess was pretty good. 

 

But we all know that you won't do that, because I didn't nail exactly 1,300. You don't have it in you.

 

So, I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself. Guess the Thailand COVID19 positive number on Friday (announced Friday), and the winner can donate that amount to charity of their choice. Any amount is fine. Since I went first last time, go ahead, Champ, make a "guess". Closest guess wins.

You've learned something about my view of a forecast: so that's something.

 

You are wrong about my insistence on considering the DDC report and so on: I pointed out that your wild guess was a stab in the dark and no more and for greater credibility you should take a longer term view with more than just a few numbers and a run rate in mind.

 

Still, I cannot argue that 1300 out of 1335 turned out well and even though I have already said that I never make guesses or forecasts of this nature, I will accept your challenge and I will provide an estimate of Friday's announcement. I will post it here in good faith and I will do that some time after tomorrow's announcement.

[DLock]

7 minutes ago, todlad said:

You've learned something about my view of a forecast: so that's something.

 

You are wrong about my insistence on considering the DDC report and so on: I pointed out that your wild guess was a stab in the dark and no more and for greater credibility you should take a longer term view with more than just a few numbers and a run rate in mind.

 

Still, I cannot argue that 1300 out of 1335 turned out well and even though I have already said that I never make guesses or forecasts of this nature, I will accept your challenge and I will provide an estimate of Friday's announcement. I will post it here in good faith and I will do that some time after tomorrow's announcement.

 

How about just make your guess now and state your amount - any amount is fine.

 

No need to wait until after tomorrow's numbers.

[Scott]

Troll post reported and removed.

 

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 4/12/2021 at 1:12 PM, ThailandGuy said:

No way that is gonna happen in 1 week. Simply not possible even with a reproduction number of 1.7 which is absurd as the UK variant of the virus has a reproduction of 1.3.  They are just in total panic mode. 

It wasn't predicted to happen within a week, though - the time frame given was a month.

 

As reported in numerous sources (with one example given below):

 

"Covid-19 infections could surge to 28,000 people per day within the next month."

 

28,000 daily infections possible

 

Also, this was the absolute worst case scenario assuming no measures taken by the authorities to mitigate the spread, no masks, no social distancing and no hand-washing.

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 4/12/2021 at 2:44 PM, BernieOnTour said:

Seems, Thailand was also in urgent need of a Thai borne Neil Ferguson ????

He didn't actually predict that number of deaths though, did he?

 

In almost all of those, he published statistical models with best, worst and medium case numbers.

 

The half a million figure for Covid was the worst case scenario. He even said in his report that, "this was “unlikely,” and based on the assumption that nothing was done to control it." He said that the measures announced by the government at that time (which were minimal) could reduce this by about a half but that better preventative measures could reduce it even further.

 

Also, the figures shown there for Bird Flu are totally misleading. The actual number of 282 deaths was for the UK alone, whereas the 150 million number was an estimate for the entire world, if the Bird Flu were to have a similar fatality rate to the Spanish Flu (which he wasn't saying it would, he was just giving the figure for comparison).

 

There is no evidence I can find that he ever made a prediction for deaths from foot and mouth disease.

Edited April 15, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 4/12/2021 at 5:13 PM, connda said:

A team led by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College forcasted 500,000 Covid deaths in the UK based on computer models.  Ok.

No, it didn't. As I just stated, it gave a range of possible deaths including one estimate of an absolute worst case scenario leading to 500,000 deaths. This was a scenario based no control measures being put in place, leading to the majority of the population being infected and a case fatality rate of 2% or more.*

 

*Edited, as I misrembered some of the actual numbers.

Edited April 15, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

No, it didn't. As I just stated, it gave a range of possible deaths including one estimate of an absolute worst case scenario leading to 500,000 deaths. This was a scenario based on 80% of the population being infected, a case fatality rate of 3% and no control measures put in place.

In addition that model kicked the UK government into actually doing something.

[todlad]

21 hours ago, DLock said:

 

How about just make your guess now and state your amount - any amount is fine.

 

No need to wait until after tomorrow's numbers.

You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday:

 

1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April.

 

In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I would look even more foolish if I posted them.

 

If I had more detailed information, that I tried and failed to find today, I would probably have submitted a five day forecast. I am not afraid of anything. I am not crying wolf. I am trying to do this in the way I usually make and share any forecasts I do make.

 

So, in good faith, 1776 new cases overnight.

 

Over to you!

 

 

[hobobo]

36 minutes ago, todlad said:

You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday:

 

1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April.

 

In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I would look even more foolish if I posted them.

 

If I had more detailed information, that I tried and failed to find today, I would probably have submitted a five day forecast. I am not afraid of anything. I am not crying wolf. I am trying to do this in the way I usually make and share any forecasts I do make.

 

So, in good faith, 1776 new cases overnight.

 

Over to you!

 

 

Over and out!

[Excel]

39 minutes ago, todlad said:

You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday:

 

1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April.

 

In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I would look even more foolish if I posted them.

 

If I had more detailed information, that I tried and failed to find today, I would probably have submitted a five day forecast. I am not afraid of anything. I am not crying wolf. I am trying to do this in the way I usually make and share any forecasts I do make.

 

So, in good faith, 1776 new cases overnight.

 

Over to you!

 

 

Right, out to get my lottery ticket,  thanks for that ????

[Bkk Brian]

43 minutes ago, todlad said:

You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday:

 

1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April.

 

In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I would look even more foolish if I posted them.

 

If I had more detailed information, that I tried and failed to find today, I would probably have submitted a five day forecast. I am not afraid of anything. I am not crying wolf. I am trying to do this in the way I usually make and share any forecasts I do make.

 

So, in good faith, 1776 new cases overnight.

 

Over to you!

 

 

I guess 1777, purely off the top of my head

[todlad]

1 hour ago, Excel said:

Right, out to get my lottery ticket,  thanks for that ????

Fair's fair ... 50: 50 if we win!

[todlad]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

I guess 1777, purely off the top of my head

Must be using the same algorithm, then!

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, todlad said:

Must be using the same algorithm, then!

Guess so ????