I still don't think the sky is falling ......but

[starky]

5 hours ago, Mr Dome said:

 

So, you went from "it's relatively harmless" (translation: "I didn't get it/it was mild and the same goes for most people I know") to "it's not killing a "high" proportion of people".

 

Already a contradiction in itself as something that's harmless by definition never kills anyone or we wouldn't call it it literally "causing no harm".

 

Also, literally nobody's saying the vaccines a silver bullet but the alternative - doing nothing, from what most Covid-deniers are saying - or, putting high-risk groups into lockdown for the foreseeable future - just isn't feasible.

Reading comprehension is so severely lacking on this site I can only imagine for a lot of posters its an ESL thing or they are in such a hurry to shoot people down with non considered responses they don't bother reading  ..I did say I believe it to be relatively harmless. Relative being a comparison word where one thing may be compared to another. Like the fact that covid compared to the number of road deaths daily in Thailand could be considered relatively harmless by quite a large number to use but one comparison. Or the fact that upwards of 30 000 people die in the US every month from diabetes, which would make covid comparatively harmless by that metric as well.

  The word high in quotation marks ( these things "  ") was in response to a poster who suggested covid was killing a high proportion of people.  I refuted this, replying to his statement by using his quote, which I put in quotation marks so anyone who had even the most rudimentary knowledge of punctuation marks would be able to ascertain it was something said by someone else.

            Understand?

Edited April 17, 2021 by starky

[Inala]

14 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

read my posts.  You can put yours up showing different opinions.  I'll read them for sure.  Credible links only.  Or they will be removed, as you know.

 

Only curious, how will you "remove" them?

Edited April 17, 2021 by Inala
typo

[Jeffr2]

31 minutes ago, Inala said:

 

Only curious, how will you "remove" them?

I won't.  But the mods do a great job of removing dodgy links and comments.  Especially with regards to the virus.  As it's illegal to make such comments now here in Thailand.  You can be arrested.  Conspiracy theories help no one.

 

 

 

[Jeffr2]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

 

What's scary about that?  They're sending asymptomatic people to the hospital for a quarantine. 

 

The scarier thought is how many people have it and can spread it, but won't get tested because they don't want to spend a few weeks locked up in a bed, even if they're asymptomatic. 

 

Here, people who tested positive knew they should stay home and avoid the public for a couple of weeks.  Those who never got tested were the real spreaders, oblivious to the fact they even had it.

 

ummm....they're not all asymptomatic.  Come on.  Studies range from 20% to 50% of those with the virus are asymptomatic.  That means 50-80% are sick to varying degrees.

 

That hospital in Issan is now in dire straights because of what you said.  People went to the hospital without notifying the staff they'd been in close contact with CV19 people.  100 staff members are now in quarantine.  They should be fined and put in jail.

[cdemundo]

21 hours ago, Inala said:

an absolutely idiotic assertion even for a TV poster.

Yeah...Well... that's just like ...your opinion man. ????

[nobodysfriend]

23 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

so, you are saying most of us will die?

 

 

Yes , we will all die .

That's normal .

When ?

That depends on many things ...

But anyway , the question is if there is a life before death ...

One that is worth to be called " Life " .

[Inala]

4 minutes ago, cdemundo said:

Yeah...Well... that's just like ...your opinion man. ????

 

But wait, that's not my post!

[Inala]

56 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I won't.  But the mods do a great job of removing dodgy links and comments.  Especially with regards to the virus.  As it's illegal to make such comments now here in Thailand.  You can be arrested.  Conspiracy theories help no one.

 

 

 

 

I see

[cdemundo]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Obviously your opinion of experts differs substantially from mine.

Since jeffr2 offered an article from Scientific American, it looks like you don't consider that publication to be expert in the field of science.  Although it is a popular science magazine and not a peer reviewed scientific journal, it seems to have a track record of reliability.  It is certainly not sensationalist, being so devoted to the factual that it is amazing it has survived in this era of "infotainment".  It has limited itself to dry factual articles to the extent that some might even call SA "dull".  I think that SA editors qualify as experts in providing informative, factual articles to the public and although not infallible they are trustworthy.

[cdemundo]

12 minutes ago, Inala said:

 

But wait, that's not my post!

Sorry, I just laughed and I think it is very funny, regardless of who posted it.

 

[cdemundo]

On 4/16/2021 at 5:37 PM, malathione said:

an absolutely idiotic assertion even for a TV poster.

Hilarious, what exactly are you saying?   Many have thought this, glad someone else said it.

Forget about the assertion being criticized, it's the "even for" part I am enjoying.

[Jeffr2]

4 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Or they're looking at the projected vaccine rollout and deciding they want to get on with their lives before another 12 months rolls by.  Between the slow rollout, new variants and now, breakthrough cases (after vaccination), some people have decided there's more to life than being locked down and in fear of a disease that, at 3 million deaths worldwide has killed about 0.04% of the world population.

And thus, the reason we're here.  Comments like this don't help. 

[Jeffr2]

Perhaps the sky is starting to fall.  Read this new article in the Post.  Scary for sure.  Just hope you don't need medical treatment right now.

 

Quote

Alarm rises over hospital bed shortage

 

[impulse]

18 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

And thus, the reason we're here.  Comments like this don't help. 

 

That's one opinion, from someone who probably has nothing to lose if the Thai economy stays locked down for another year or 2.  Which is a pretty likely forecast in view of the rate of the vaccine rollouts.   And that's IF no variants prove elusive to the vaccines an IF the Sinovac is actually effective, and IF there's not a bunch of breakthrough cases.

 

Meanwhile, there's a report conceding that 6 million Thais are unemployed as a result of the shutdowns.  Not the disease.  The shutdowns.  And those are just the ones they'll admit to.  There's probably millions more that are unemployed because they don't count the sidewalk vendors and taxi drivers and motosai riders that aren't unemployed- they just have no business.

 

So I'm glad to hear there's some people OUTDOORS enjoying Lumpini Park. 

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, impulse said:

 

That's one opinion, from someone who probably has nothing to lose if the Thai economy stays locked down for another year or 2.  Which is a pretty likely forecast in view of the rate of the vaccine rollouts.   And that's IF no variants prove elusive to the vaccines an IF the Sinovac is actually effective, and IF there's not a bunch of breakthrough cases.

 

Meanwhile, there's a report conceding that 6 million Thais are unemployed as a result of the shutdowns.  Not the disease.  The shutdowns.  And those are just the ones they'll admit to.  There's probably millions more that are unemployed because they don't count the sidewalk vendors and taxi drivers and motosai riders that aren't unemployed- they just have no business.

 

So I'm glad to hear there's some people OUTDOORS enjoying Lumpini Park. 

Actually, it's the opinion of experts.  Pretty much every one. 

 

And yes, I have a massive interest in the Thai economy with a huge investment here.  You know nothing about me.  Don't assume.

 

If people follow the safety and health guidelines, we'll get through this quicker.  Sadly, many don't.  And thus, the reason we are where we are.

 

China cracked down hard.  Guess what?  Their economy is doing great and they're able to travel around without worrying like we are now doing here.  Again.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/china-economy-grows-at-record-pace-in-covid-rebound/a-57221893

 

China's GDP expanded by 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, official data showed on Friday.

 

The increase is the biggest since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

 

While the disease first emerged in central China, the country was also the quickest to get a grip on the pandemic after authorities imposed strict control measures.

[Tagged]

@starky

 

Quote "cos humanity didn't flourish from hiding in caves."

 

the humanity flourished because we where tribes that had less interactions with groups that was not of our own. Black death is a good example what happend when we developed consistent trading lines between bigger cities, and we did not really flourish before we got the first vaccines and better knownledge of hygiene

[Mr Dome]

18 hours ago, starky said:

Reading comprehension is so severely lacking on this site I can only imagine for a lot of posters its an ESL thing or they are in such a hurry to shoot people down with non considered responses they don't bother reading  

I quoted you directly, so you are blaming yourself now? Otherwise, your framing makes no sense here.

18 hours ago, starky said:

 

..I did say I believe it to be relatively harmless.

Thanks for owning it.

18 hours ago, starky said:

 

Relative being a comparison word where one thing may be compared to another. Like the fact that covid compared to the number of road deaths daily in Thailand ...

Yes, we've suffered through these nonsensical comparisons for a year now (I won't get into how you can't compare an infectious disease spread through the air with car accidents, it just makes you look very ignorant).

 

It's as lacking in common sense as someone banning most cars and then comparing a different cause of death to the - suddenly - low number of traffic deaths, stating how much more dangerous that other cause is.

This is Dunning-Kruger at full display.

 

The Covid numbers are only this low because for a whole year we've now been taking action against transmission from closing borders to masks to stay-at-home orders. If we let Covid-19 run rampant the number of deaths would be absolutely soaring. You can see it in Brazil, parts of the US but you only look at Thailand and refuse to take the situation in other countries on board - why?

 

[DaweiBeach]

On 4/17/2021 at 8:47 AM, Ryan754326 said:

In my time riding on roads in SEA I have seen six dead bodies laying on the road, and countless others severely injured in accidents.

A few years ago my Dad was driving down the road and saw an old man walking. As he passed him and looked in the rear view mirror, the man flopped on his face. My Dad stopped and went to see if he was okay - he was dead. When the ambulance arrived they told him it was most likely a major heart attack or stroke. 

This is just one second hand story of actually seeing someone drop dead out of nowhere, but I know plenty of people who have died of heart attacks. Same goes for cancer, including my mother and two grandparents. 

 

Im not saying long covid doesn’t exist, I’m saying that I don’t believe it happens in anywhere near 30% of cases. 

 

Long covid occurs for 30% of hospitalized patients I think. Not 30% of the number of infected. 

[BritManToo]

6 hours ago, Mr Dome said:

If we let Covid-19 run rampant the number of deaths would be absolutely soaring.

Interesting that you feel you play some part in stopping COVID.

I would use 'they' in place of 'we' as I have no influence over anything that happens in any country.

 

Border controls, vaccination, travel restrictions, wearing a mask, entertainment venues open/closed .......... I have no choices in any of these things, apart to comply with the regulations imposed upon me.

Edited April 18, 2021 by BritManToo

[impulse]

6 hours ago, Mr Dome said:

The Covid numbers are only this low because for a whole year we've now been taking action against transmission from closing borders to masks to stay-at-home orders. If we let Covid-19 run rampant the number of deaths would be absolutely soaring.

 

Or are they so low because they never really started testing a decent portion of the population until recently?  Now, we're seeing FREE gub'ment testing sites, inundated with people.  Of course the number of cases will go up if you test more people. 

 

I have yet to see a declaration (much less a timeline) of the percentage of tests that are positive.  Without that data, no conclusions can be drawn whether it's getting worse or better, nor how bad it has actually been.

 

And since they're sending all positive tests to quarantine in a "hospital bed", we don't know how many actually need extensive care and how many are just quarantined in a bed playing on their phone.   Just the number who are taking up a bed (whether they need it or not), and how many died.

Makes it pretty difficult to tell what's really happening.  But maybe that's the objective.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by impulse

[Jeffr2]

3 hours ago, DaweiBeach said:

 

Long covid occurs for 30% of hospitalized patients I think. Not 30% of the number of infected. 

To be honest.  They just don't know yet.  It does mostly appear with people who've been hospitalized.  But it's now occurring in those who've just had a mild case.  Loss of taste.  Brain fog.  Problems breathing.  Etc.

 

Scary.

[Jeffr2]

9 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Or are they so low because they never really started testing a decent portion of the population until recently?  Now, we're seeing FREE gub'ment testing sites, inundated with people.  Of course the number of cases will go up if you test more people. 

 

I have yet to see a declaration (much less a timeline) of the percentage of tests that are positive.  Without that data, no conclusions can be drawn whether it's getting worse or better, nor how bad it has actually been.

 

 

Positivity rates have been reported.  And they've ranged from 1% to over 10%.  Most recent one I saw was 5%. 

[starky]

7 hours ago, Mr Dome said:

I quoted you directly, so you are blaming yourself now? Otherwise, your framing makes no sense here.

Thanks for owning it.

Yes, we've suffered through these nonsensical comparisons for a year now (I won't get into how you can't compare an infectious disease spread through the air with car accidents, it just makes you look very ignorant).

 

It's as lacking in common sense as someone banning most cars and then comparing a different cause of death to the - suddenly - low number of traffic deaths, stating how much more dangerous that other cause is.

This is Dunning-Kruger at full display.

 

The Covid numbers are only this low because for a whole year we've now been taking action against transmission from closing borders to masks to stay-at-home orders. If we let Covid-19 run rampant the number of deaths would be absolutely soaring. You can see it in Brazil, parts of the US but you only look at Thailand and refuse to take the situation in other countries on board - why?

 

Worldwide. Chance of hospitalisation from covid with serious complications 1-5% overall mortality rate less than 2% .  Of course other deaths matter what are you talking about? I specifically brought obesity up as many of the Americans who died obesity was one of the most common co-morbidities. Not only in the US but that is the country where it is most glaringly obvious. It's only in some very rare cases that people in good health without other underlying problems have had serious complications from covid. 

I keep hearing comments from people like you about death rates soaring blah blah with not one bit of scientific evidence to back it up. It was let run rampant in many countries and still the figures are as quoted. Mostly from people with 2 or more co-morbidities and hardly any from just covid solely. Again show me some evidence to the contrary.

 You didn't quote me directly you quoted me quoting someone else's post. Deadset. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by starky

[Jeffr2]

29 minutes ago, starky said:

Worldwide. Chance of hospitalisation from covid with serious complications 1-5% overall mortality rate less than 2% .  Of course other deaths matter what are you talking about? I specifically brought obesity up as many of the Americans who died obesity was one of the most common co-morbidities. Not only in the US but that is the country where it is most glaringly obvious. It's only in some very rare cases that people in good health without other underlying problems have had serious complications from covid. 

I keep hearing comments from people like you about death rates soaring blah blah with not one bit of scientific evidence to back it up. It was let run rampant in many countries and still the figures are as quoted. Mostly from people with 2 or more co-morbidities and hardly any from just covid solely. Again show me some evidence to the contrary.

 You didn't quote me directly you quoted me quoting someone else's post. Deadset. 

You keep harping on about co-morbidities.  In the end, it's covid that triggers the death.

 

You ignore long covid.  You're basing your arguments on stats that have been proven to be under reported.  Many countries don't even report numbers.

 

And in the end...over 3MM have died globally.  And it's not done with us yet. 

 

Why do you like to downplay the severity of this pandemic?  I don't get it.

[Kinnock]

On 4/16/2021 at 10:35 AM, Surelynot said:

I think this is true....which is fine when you are one of those for whom the effects are zero or minimal.......but for others.......?

 

I wonder how people would have reacted if this disease had the inverse effect of killing a high proportion of children rather than old folk?

You mean like Malaria, which mainly kills under 5's,  but nobody cares, or diarrhoea, which mainly causes death amongst children and in higher numbers than COVID, but nobody cares.

 

I think you mean "what if COVID-19 caused death amongst  children in developed countries ..... "?

 

COVID is a First World issue, hence all the fuss.

 

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

You mean like Malaria, which mainly kills under 5's,  but nobody cares, or diarrhoea, which mainly causes death amongst children and in higher numbers than COVID, but nobody cares.

 

I think you mean "what if COVID-19 caused death amongst  children in developed countries ..... "?

 

COVID is a First World issue, hence all the fuss.

 

Please show a credible link that proves nobody cares about children dying from malaria or diarrhea.

 

We'll wait....

 

Covid is NOT a first world issue.  It's a global issue.  Until the entire population of the world reaches herd immunity, we won't be back to "normal".

 

 

[Kinnock]

11 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

You keep harping on about co-morbidities.  In the end, it's covid that triggers the death.

 

You ignore long covid.  You're basing your arguments on stats that have been proven to be under reported.  Many countries don't even report numbers.

 

And in the end...over 3MM have died globally.  And it's not done with us yet. 

 

Why do you like to downplay the severity of this pandemic?  I don't get it.

Because the response of most governments was out of proportion to the risk. 

 

The economic damage of the lockdown and travel bans also has an impact on people's health, and the postponing of essential surgery and delays to routine hospital examinations also has an impact.

 

Like King Canute,  we cannot hold back the tide, and the lockdowns are only intended to relieve pressure on overloaded hospitals, and it's just not practical to vaccinate 70% of the World's population against every variant, so in the end we need to learn how to live with endemic COVID-19.

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Because the response of most governments was out of proportion to the risk. 

 

The economic damage of the lockdown and travel bans also has an impact on people's health, and the postponing of essential surgery and delays to routine hospital examinations also has an impact.

 

Like King Canute,  we cannot hold back the tide, and the lockdowns are only intended to relieve pressure on overloaded hospitals, and it's just not practical to vaccinate 70% of the World's population against every variant, so in the end we need to learn how to live with endemic COVID-19.

That's a pretty blanket statement.  The responses were all over the board.  From next to nothing (US, UK, etc) to massive (China, Japan, Thailand).

 

With approaching 600k dead in the US, and hundreds of thousands more either hospitalized or suffering long term health effects...or both.  I'd say the risk is massive.  For the US, they lost more people than in the wars combined since WW1.  Incredible.

 

China locked down hard.  Guess what?  Life's pretty much back to normal and their economy rocked at 18% recently.  Wow!

 

We should take China's lead and we'd be done with this.

[Kinnock]

5 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Please show a credible link that proves nobody cares about children dying from malaria or diarrhea.

 

We'll wait....

 

Covid is NOT a first world issue.  It's a global issue.  Until the entire population of the world reaches herd immunity, we won't be back to "normal".

 

 

Show me when a First World leader mentioned diarrhoea as a global issue which needs to be addressed? 

 

It kills thousands of kids a week, but I don't see any global mobilization to prevent it?

 

I don't see Malaria being raised as an issue by EU leaders.

 

I didn't see the US withdraw funding from the WHO over their mishandling of malaria or other third world diseases like TB which kills a similar number to COVID every year.

 

COVID has got First World countries in a panic,  but the actual risks are no worse than some other diseases, but those diseases do not impact on US or Europe.

 

The old cliche of 'show me a link" makes no sense when trying to illustrate an absence of something.

[Jeffr2]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Show me when a First World leader mentioned diarrhoea as a global issue which needs to be addressed? 

 

It kills thousands of kids a week, but I don't see any global mobilization to prevent it?

 

I don't see Malaria being raised as an issue by EU leaders.

 

I didn't see the US withdraw funding from the WHO over their mishandling of malaria or other third world diseases like TB which kills a similar number to COVID every year.

 

COVID has got First World countries in a panic,  but the actual risks are no worse than some other diseases, but those diseases do not impact on US or Europe.

 

The old cliche of 'show me a link" makes no sense when trying to illustrate an absence of something.

You make this too easy....LOL

 

https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/global/diarrhea-burden.html

 

 

Quote

 

Global Diarrhea Burden

Diarrhea: Common Illness, Global Killer

Diarrhea kills 2,195 children every day—more than AIDS, malaria, and measles combined ¹.

Diarrheal diseases account for 1 in 9 child deaths worldwide, making diarrhea the second leading cause of death among children under the age of 5. For children with HIV, diarrhea is even more deadly; the death rate for these children is 11 times higher than the rate for children without HIV ². Despite these sobering statistics, strides made over the last 20 years have shown that, in addition to rotavirus vaccination and breastfeeding, diarrhea prevention focused on safe water and improved hygiene and sanitation is not only possible, but cost effective: every $1 invested yields an average return of $25.50 ³.

 

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diarrhoeal-disease

 

 

Quote

 

Key facts

• Diarrhoeal disease is the second leading cause of death in children under five years old. It is both preventable and treatable.
• Each year diarrhoea kills around 525 000 children under five.
• A significant proportion of diarrhoeal disease can be prevented through safe drinking-water and adequate sanitation and hygiene.
• Globally, there are nearly 1.7 billion cases of childhood diarrhoeal disease every year.
• Diarrhoea is a leading cause of malnutrition in children under five years old.

 

 

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/our-work/programs/global-health/enteric-and-diarrheal-diseases

 

Quote

Our team's primary focus is to advance the development of safe, affordable, and effective vaccines for the leading causes of diarrheal and enteric diseases in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Our work in vaccines is complemented and enhanced by interventions that target the underlying biological vulnerability of babies and children, work led by the Maternal, Newborn & Child Health Discovery & Tools team. To inform decisions on when and how to deploy new interventions and expand the use of existing ones, we fund research on the global and regional burden of these diseases.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Jeffr2