Thailand reports 1,767 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[ChipButty]

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Looks like the Genie is out of the bottle and the folks who were believing the government or ignoring them are now sitting and standing up going WTH is happening.  That is what is called complacency, as many either ignored it as they were outside of the bigger cities, or truly believed Anutin and this Government.  Crazy how all of a sudden the Government is scrambling to buy vaccines, as well as find rooms for all the infected.  Is this Som Nam Na to General Uncle Tu, and Hemp boy Anutin, maybe a direct reflection of the attitudes they had prior to Songkran with their comments that is was under control and what will happen will happen.  Tools.

Her in doors just told me there is 15 cases in Rawai, 

[edwardandtubs]

3 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

It looks like they want to show the Thai people that the foreigners or aliens are to blame for high numbers.. 

No, it's just a misunderstanding by whoever wrote the OP.

Edited April 18, 2021 by edwardandtubs

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

More than happy for you to call it a linear growth, I'll carry on calling it an exponential trend line.

 

Its the actual data that is important not the terms used. The fact is there is a surge in cases in the pandemic that is clearly not under control.

 

However just to keep you happy then please feel free to call this a linear increase, I'll carry on calling it an exponential trend line..........thanks..........cool.

 

Feel free to make your own covid chart and post.

"Exponential' has a specific mathematical meaning. Please use it as such. 1-> 2->4->8->16->32....is an example of expontial increase. The rate of daily increase is not near this at this time. Not everyone in a population has the same chance of exposure so the rate with would gove rise to much faster increases that we see so far. 

Then there are limits on testing capacity, so these graphs don't mean much any way. 

Edited April 18, 2021 by DavisH

[ChomDo]

52 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There's a lot of PR spin going on with the government's efforts to ramp up its hospital bed capacity by adding quickly assembled makeshift field hospital facilities.

 

This below was a post today by the MoPH regarding an expansion of facilities at its Bamrasnaradura Institute in Bangkok for treating infectious diseases such as COVID:

Department of Disease Control prepares for Field Hospital at Bamrasnaradura Institute

Link:

 

 

 

Vs. this was a report that appeared on the Chiang Mai City Life website several days ago regarding a new COVID field hospital there:

 

Photos from inside the women’s quarantine at the field hospital

 

https://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/citynews/covid-19/photos-from-inside-the-womens-quarantine-at-the-field-hospital/

 

 

"Photos from inside the government quarantine are showing a shambolic response to this order which will see anyone with the virus avoiding the government quarantine facing up to two years in jail.

 

In spite of being unprepared, it is reported that over 600 people are now housed in the government’s quarantine at the Chiang Mai Convention Centre."

 

This might have been asked but what happens to foreigners with insurances? I mean when they say "hospitals are full" they are not referring to private hospitals? Like if you have the 100k coverage covid insurance, you still get treated in a private room at the private hospitals right? 

[scorecard]

6 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

It's not going to happen. Vaccine manufacturers are committed to government contracts or the Covax scheme for a long time so will be unavailable on the private market.

 

OK, but I suspect there will be supply chains which private hospitals can access. Money talks.

 

[pentagara]

3 hours ago, BookShe said:

Let's just keep an eye on fatalities. Number of cases are less important. There can be an order of magnitude more cases undetected. Of course there's a correlation between case numbers and mortality, but it seems to be Thailand was pretty lucky in both terms since the start of this pandemic. ( I have no idea why)

Deaths follow with a two to three week latency, it's how Covid works...

[edwardandtubs]

1 minute ago, DavisH said:

"Exponential' has a specific mathematical meaning. Please use it as such. 1-> 2->4->8->16->32....i

Yes but you also have to consider the doubling time. Doubling every day and every month are both examples of exponential growth. 

[jojothai]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Do you see the pattern? Exponential growth does not stop because of a 3 day flatline

 

 

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Continued exponential growth, 

Its not  exponential growth. You can see in the chart posted by Bkk Brian its gone linear.
If you want to see what exponential growth would be look at the chart below.
It shows potentially exponential growth up to 15th April but now shows linear growth since 11th April.
 

A small point to note on the initial post is that Reuters need to report correctly. There were not 288 and 228 imported cases in the last 2 days. It was only 2 and 3. The others are proactive case finding locally. The average number of imported cases since mid December is only about 12 a day.

 

[edwardandtubs]

1 minute ago, jojothai said:

 

Its not  exponential growth. You can see in the chart posted by Bkk Brian its gone linear.
If you want to see what exponential growth would be look at the chart below.
It shows potentially exponential growth up to 15th April but now shows linear growth since 11th April.
 

A small point to note on the initial post is that Reuters need to report correctly. There were not 288 and 228 imported cases in the last 2 days. It was only 2 and 3. The others are proactive case finding locally. The average number of imported cases since mid December is only about 12 a day.

 

You're looking at it the wrong way. You should be considering total cases, not new cases. The real question is, what is the doubling time for total cases in this third wave? If it's every 3-4 days then Thailand is in a similar situation to Western countries during their first waves.

[rabas]

7 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

9 minutes ago, DavisH said:

"Exponential' has a specific mathematical meaning. Please use it as such. 1-> 2->4->8->16->32....i

Yes but you also have to consider the doubling time. Doubling every day and every month are both examples of exponential growth. 

The true meaning of exponential function:

 

The independent variable x (like days, time) is in the exponent. 

 

Infectious diseases mostly follow exponential spread.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, ChomDo said:

This might have been asked but what happens to foreigners with insurances? I mean when they say "hospitals are full" they are not referring to private hospitals? Like if you have the 100k coverage covid insurance, you still get treated in a private room at the private hospitals right? 

 

You should read a report on that subject in the BKK Post today, which cannot be linked here due to policies of both the Post and this forum.

 

The article is quoting a government official as saying there's a queue of 700 patients at present waiting to be assigned to hospital beds.

 

And there continue to be reports of some private hospitals, who say they are full, not referring COVID patients who contact them to other available bed resources, either at large, or outside of their own company's network of hospitals.

 

And then, there's also the issue of choice. Some of the public complaints surfacing via social media may be about not being able to get a bed at a particular hospital that that person wants.... as opposed to... not being able to find a bed anywhere.

 

I don't think various of the private hospitals in BKK are necessarily exempt from all this. When I contacted Bumrungrad Hospital a few days ago asking about whether they were still offering COVID tests, they replied that they were for people at high risk, but couldn't necessarily promise an available bed if I tested positive because of what they called high demand for their beds.

 

Also, another limiting factor, AFAIK, is not all hospital bed facilities are suitable for COVID positive patients who may be infectious. So the pool of hospital beds supposedly is going to consist of isolation type rooms or ward type areas where other COVID patients are staying -- but not general hospital facilities where other non-COVID patients are staying.

 

Thus far, the government hasn't exactly been transparent about all this. Despite offering a variety of statistics, they really haven't made public any overall recap of just how many real, current hospital beds are actually available for COVID patients vs. what number of those are currently occupied, encompassing both the public and private facilities.

 

 

[Bangkok Barry]

Just to put this in perspective, the Philippines has had over 10,000 new cases and 150 deaths in the last 24 hours. Having said that, I am self-isolating in my home in Kalasin for at least the next couple of weeks until I see how many cases were brought up from Bangkok with the government's blessing during Songkran. My wife is happy enough to do that, with precautions of course.

[BookShe]

27 minutes ago, pentagara said:

Deaths follow with a two to three week latency, it's how Covid works...

If you look at the last 12 months, it didn't. It sure does in many countries. I have no idea why Thailand was doing ok. Will this time be different? Maybe. I honestly hope it's not. My business is falling apart (not complaining), but at least we had some fun during the last year, while the rest of the world was falling apart. 

Edited April 18, 2021 by BookShe

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, DavisH said:

"Exponential' has a specific mathematical meaning. Please use it as such. 1-> 2->4->8->16->32....is an example of expontial increase. The rate of daily increase is not near this at this time. Not everyone in a population has the same chance of exposure so the rate with would gove rise to much faster increases that we see so far. 

Then there are limits on testing capacity, so these graphs don't mean much any way. 

Exponential can be used in general terms or we can have the technical term police correct us, so better to just ignore any graphs I do in the future then, thanks

Edited April 18, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[anchadian]

Thai News Reports

 

@thainewsreports

 

A private school in Samut Prakan is at the center of a new cluster that has infected 32 people so far including 23 students. It started with two foreign teachers who visited Phuket from 2-4 April. They came back and taught 5-8 April. They tested positive on 9 April

[Antonymous]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

There have indeed been occasional cases of younger, apparently healthy people dying and of some older, apparently unhealthy people having only mild cases but those are the exceptions to the rule.

 

However the data still clearly show that this disease kills predominantly older people with underlying health conditions.

 

For instance, figures from the UK are typical of the worldwide trends and show that people with underlying conditions have a more than 10 times higher risk of dying than those without.

 

COVID-19 deaths broken down by underlying health condition

 

Excellent post, thank you.

 

However I can see from comments in this and all the other threads that you are whistling in the wind as far as convincing ThaiVisa members that it would be sensible to optimize their immune system and improve their health in the face of Covid. The reaction you see is the same as holding a crucifix in front of a vampire.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by onthedarkside
cartoon removed

[jojothai]

7 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

You're looking at it the wrong way. You should be considering total cases, not new cases. The real question is, what is the doubling time for total cases in this third wave? If it's every 3-4 days then Thailand is in a similar situation to Western countries during their first waves.

Its not yet gone exponential on total cases., but could do so in the near future. see below chart.
On this you can only really consider from 15th December.
Therefore it is absolutely imperative to look at the trend in new cases and not total cases so we can judge if it is going to become exponential , the new cases currently do not support the case as an exponential growth.

[BookShe]

12 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Just to put this in perspective, the Philippines has had over 10,000 new cases and 150 deaths in the last 24 hours. Having said that, I am self-isolating in my home in Kalasin for at least the next couple of weeks until I see how many cases were brought up from Bangkok with the government's blessing during Songkran. My wife is happy enough to do that, with precautions of course.

Well said. Doing the same thing in Samui whether it's exponential or not  ???? 

Edited April 18, 2021 by BookShe

[pentagara]

9 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

OK, but I suspect there will be supply chains which private hospitals can access. Money talks.

 

The issue is liability for side effects which private hospitals don't want to/can't cover. That's also the reason vaccine manufacturers don't want to sell to private entities. As a result nothing happened so far. If the government imports, vaccine manufacturers are excempted from any liability, so manufacturers are willing to at least talk about selling. A private contract cannot excempt either manufacturer or hospital of the liability, someone will have to cover the cost if a patient dies eg. from blood clots. Government has understood the issue now though and there are talks to use the government agency that normally only purchases medical supplies for the public health system as general Covid vaccine importer. Private hospitals would then buy the vaccine from the agency and the liability would end up with the state (with treatment of any side effects in state hospitals, even if the vaccine is offered by a private firm). Then vaccine manufacturers would be more willing to sell. The same setup has also been used for all Covid vaccine imports so far (AstraZeneca/Sinovac).

[unblocktheplanet]

I'm one of those advocating a HARD & TOTAL LOCKDOWN. This is the ONLY hope we have of getting the new B117 pandemic under control.

 

Hospital & field hospital beds in Thailand: 24,500

How many ICU beds???

Yesterday, 67 in ICUs, today 128. Yesterday 16 on ventilators, today 28.

 

UK, deja vu... 

[dogfish180]

Sunday cases? ???? Report goes out Sunday midday!!! How does that work??

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

Thai News Reports

 

@thainewsreports

 

A private school in Samut Prakan is at the center of a new cluster that has infected 32 people so far including 23 students. It started with two foreign teachers who visited Phuket from 2-4 April. They came back and taught 5-8 April. They tested positive on 9 April

 

For those who can read Thai, this is the graphic the MoPH put out on that cluster today:

 

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Excellent post, thank you.

 

However I can see from comments in this and all the other threads that you are whistling in the wind as far as convincing ThaiVisa members that it would be sensible to optimize their immune system and improve their health in the face of Covid. The reaction you see is the same as holding a crucifix in front of a vampire.

 

 

Again, a bit useless on the 18th day of a pandemic outbreak.

 

7 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Its not yet gone exponential on total cases., but could do so in the near future. see below chart.
On this you can only really consider from 15th December.
Therefore it is absolutely imperative to look at the trend in new cases and not total cases so we can judge if it is going to become exponential , the new cases currently do not support the case as an exponential growth.

 

You cannot fit the current 18 day old outbreak with data back to March 2020!

 

In fact, you must fit to the UK varient from Cambodia.

 

That's what's growing exponentially, as infectious diseases do.

 

 

[Dont confuse me]

The mistakes that most of Europe made have not been recognised or addressed so buckle up Thailand is in for a interesting 2021.

[edwardandtubs]

6 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Its not yet gone exponential on total cases., but could do so in the near future. see below chart.
On this you can only really consider from 15th December.
Therefore it is absolutely imperative to look at the trend in new cases and not total cases so we can judge if it is going to become exponential , the new cases currently do not support the case as an exponential growth.

I think you'd need to consider this third wave completely separately, so starting from the beginning of April how long is it taking total cases to double? It seems to be every 5-7 days so growth is exponential, just not particularly steep.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 minutes ago, dogfish180 said:

Sunday cases? ???? Report goes out Sunday midday!!! How does that work??

 

The numbers here are new cases reported by the government TODAY, basically reflecting everything that came into them during the day yesterday. It goes like that, day to day.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

However I can see from comments in this and all the other threads that you are whistling in the wind as far as convincing ThaiVisa members that it would be sensible to optimize their immune system and improve their health in the face of Covid. The reaction you see is the same as holding a crucifix in front of a vampire.

 

This is the reality:

 

Thats a meme, not reality.

 

Can you give an example where these TV member have claimed its not sensible to improve your immune system? I don't think you can so makes your post completely worthless. I for one take vit D and C, occasionally a little zinc. 

[spidermike007]

Based on the number of cases, the lack of a lockdown around Samut, that infamous day back in December, the issues at the borders with migrant crossings, the incredibly feeble vaccination drives taking place thus far, the bizarre bans on some businesses but not others, the convenience store curfews, and the incoherent plan in terms of travel to a from highly infected areas, it seems safe to say that the credit the government was given during the first wave was misplaced, and undeserved, that it was more or less "dumb luck", and that we are not in particularly safe hands at the moment.

[edwardandtubs]

12 minutes ago, unblocktheplanet said:

I'm one of those advocating a HARD & TOTAL LOCKDOWN. This is the ONLY hope we have of getting the new B117 pandemic under control.

 

Hospital & field hospital beds in Thailand: 24,500

How many ICU beds???

Yesterday, 67 in ICUs, today 128. Yesterday 16 on ventilators, today 28.

 

UK, deja vu... 

It looks like the policy of getting every case to hospital and keeping them there is going to have to end. Thailand need sensible self-isolation guidelines for people with mild/moderate symptoms.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, unblocktheplanet said:

I'm one of those advocating a HARD & TOTAL LOCKDOWN. This is the ONLY hope we have of getting the new B117 pandemic under control.

 

Hospital & field hospital beds in Thailand: 24,500

How many ICU beds???

Yesterday, 67 in ICUs, today 128. Yesterday 16 on ventilators, today 28.

 

UK, deja vu... 

 

The government seems to be muddying the waters some between the real beds that they actually in place now vs. all the various temporary makeshift facilities that are in various stages of development.

 

This chart from the MoPH is the best look I've seen on what they say is their nationwide capacity for handling COVID cases, at least as of data dated April 11.

 

In each set of 3 columns below, the numbers I believe reflect the total numbers of beds of that type, the number occupied and then the number available. I believe the top line is for BKK and the bottom line is a national total.