Lets say Thailand is successful in eliminating Covid within Thailand - Then What?

[Thomas J]

Lets assume that Thailand can accomplish the almost impossible task of totally eliminating Covid within its borders.  Then what? The remainder of the world will still have some prevalence of Covid and as soon as Thailand re-opens to foreign business persons or tourists it would expose Thailand to re-introducing the virus.  Yes stringent measures such as requiring a Covid test prior to entry and a certificate indicating that the person entering was vaccinated can be taken.  That is something that is already being done.  Is the end game really one of a game of Whack A Mole where each time the Covid flares up in some region that the quarantines, restricted hours, business closures, etc are imposed again? While the vaccines will certainly make the number of infections lower I know of no vaccine that is 100% effective.   Perhaps the end game is to vaccinate enough people within Thailand's borders to potentially reduce the number infected to a manageable level? 

[internationalism]

at some stage the indian strain will come through myanmar.

Movement within myanmar is restricted, so it would be many months before burman workers refugees will bring it to samut sakhon

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/24/988744811/people-are-talking-about-a-double-mutant-variant-in-india-what-does-that-mean

 

in cambodia some districts are in lockdown, on a larger scale Laos is doing their lockdown.

All of them doing better with vax program, but their health service is abysmal, even for that reason people will be coming to thailand for medical help.

 

thai should be using different vax for the second and next shots, there is chance it would be more effective. Since december astrazeneca works with sputnik, chinese also mentioned so some 2 weeks ago

[Don Chance]

Vaccines are highly effective and will create herd immunity, thus eliminating the virus, once everyone in Thailand and  the world is vaccinated.  Or in a country to country basis with a vaccine passport.

There are also anti-viral drug treatments on the horizon. India has one already. Biden just mention one in a new conference.

I think in 6-12 months things will get back to normal.

[mstevens]

Some island nations (Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand) have eliminated the community spread of Covid and seem to be able to keep on top of it, save the off short and sharp localised lockdown.

 

For a country like Thailand to actually eliminate Covid-19 altogetger seems impossible. With people always crossing the border in to Thailand from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Malaysia, the virus could come back unchecked at any time.

 

Covid-19 will never be totally eliminated. The world will live learn to with it and so long as most people are vaccinated, it shouldn't be a great concern.

 

When most of the world is vaccinated - hopefully by late next year - then life will return to normality, or at least to a new norm.

 

About a billion doses of vaccine have been administered worldwide so far. With 7.7 billion people on the earth and 70%+ of adults needing to be vaccinated to create herd immunity, that's something like 10 billion vaccines that need to be administered. Still a long time to go. So it looks like another 18 months until borders open up.

 

2023 should be a decent year in Thailand and for much of the world....I just hope things don't get too bad between now and then.