Thailand reports 1,763 new coronavirus cases, 27 new deaths

[meltonpie]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

 

I guess it's time to have a discussion about testing.

 

There are 2 principal reasons for testing:

 

Random testing, so the authorities understand the positivity rate, necessary for decision making, and

 

Specific testing, where individuals are tested to determine if they are infected. This includes via the process of contact tracing, hospital intake (for people who are sick and present at the hospital) and people entering the country for quarantine.

 

Specific testing needs to be high enough to handle all those who are suspected of infection. The government does not want to turn away incoming tourists, for example, because of lack of testing sets. Or have symptomatic but untested individuals in the hospital.

 

For random testing, the minimum requirement is that the result be statistically valid. The authorities don't need to know that, as an example, the positivity rate in Chonburi is 4.000045%, when 4% is good enough. So,  thousands of tests in a small area are not required for random sampling.

 

What is happening here is that people want the authorities to go door to door in Klong Toey, but that think that such focused testing is random sampling, which it is isn't.  Before the authorities do specific testing in large numbers, they need to look at the random sample numbers to see if specific testing is warranted. You don't want to go door to door and waste test kits and labor for a population that has a 7% positivity rate. For a population of 100,000, that would be 93,000 wasted test kits plus the labor. Not smart.

 

But as you acknowledged yesterday, you have absolutely no idea how they structure the random sampling and in fact have no idea if it is random at all.  It is a simple matter of fact that it is easier to control "random" from a small sample than from a larger group.

If the Thai Government really wants to eradicate the virus (as much as possible) and reboot the economy it is in their interests to have a comprehensive understanding of the situation across the country and to that end substantially more testing would not be a waste of money at all, it would be money well spent.  Of course, maybe they know more than they tell us?

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The governor explained that the number of severe cases has been increasing lately, accounting for 14% of all the infections

 

We know that a far smaller percentage than 14% result in severe cases based on what's been happening in the rest of the world.

 

Based on this percentage alone we can surmise that the total number of infections is far higher than detected.

 

[anchadian]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/respiratory-disease-specialist-objects-to-bma-plan-to-administer-favipiravir-to-all-covid-19-patients/

 

Respiratory disease specialist objects to BMA plan to administer Favipiravir to all COVID-19 patients

 

The president of the Thoracic Society of Thailand, and head of the Department of Respiratory Diseases and Tuberculosis at Mahidol University, Dr. Nitipat Jiarakul, has voiced disagreement with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration’s (BMA) plan to administer the Favipiravir anti-viral drug to all COVID-19 patients in field hospitals.

 

In his Facebook post today (Tuesday), Dr. Nitipat said that Favipiravir is registered in Thailand’s list of approved drugs and was approved for use in COVID-19 patients suffering from serious lung infections, as a special case, to prevent the spread of the disease during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic, which was in short supply.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by onthedarkside
formatting

[Danderman123]

18 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

But as you acknowledged yesterday, you have absolutely no idea how they structure the random sampling and in fact have no idea if it is random at all.  It is a simple matter of fact that it is easier to control "random" from a small sample than from a larger group.

If the Thai Government really wants to eradicate the virus (as much as possible) and reboot the economy it is in their interests to have a comprehensive understanding of the situation across the country and to that end substantially more testing would not be a waste of money at all, it would be money well spent.  Of course, maybe they know more than they tell us?

I stated that I personally don't know how the Thai government conducts random sampling, but I am sure that they do. Given that the numbers of new cases closely correlates with the positivity rate implied by their testing, it sure looks like they know what they are doing.

 

And, the doom and gloomers here who have consistently claimed this epidemic was "just getting started" and was going to result in much higher numbers seem to have been .................................... wrong.

 

 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

We know that a far smaller percentage than 14% result in severe cases based on what's been happening in the rest of the world.

 

Based on this percentage alone we can surmise that the total number of infections is far higher than detected.

 

OR, people are waiting until they are almost dead before presenting at hospitals.

 

OR, this is a more deadly strain of the virus.

 

OR, your numbers are wrong. It's not unusual for hospital mortality to reach 10%.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I stated that I personally don't know how the Thai government conducts random sampling, but I am sure that they do. Given that the numbers of new cases closely correlates with the positivity rate implied by their testing, it sure looks like they know what they are doing.

If they did random testing one would have thought they would announce this is some shape or form, proactive/target testing in cluster areas is very different.

 

Effective random testing would mean going to areas with very little cases or none at all that are reported to measure whether there are any infections at all.

 

Todays overall positivity rate is 8.7%. 1773 cases found and 20,039 lab tests.

[JeffersLos]

7 minutes ago, thaichina said:

It doesn t matter

 

Women and children dying mightn't matter to you.... 

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, Forza2002 said:

Isaan accounts for 30% of the Thai population but the numbers being reported by some of the large populated Issan Provinces is relatively low. This is either due to a shortage of test kits or the numbers are being finagled, after all "Face" means everything here in Thailand. 

About 3 weeks ago it was reported by  ( I think ) CCSA that there were only between 300K and 400K test kits available within the whole Country.

My take on this low reporting from Isaan is that their Kits have caught a Bus to BKK due to the amount of perceived testing that has been done there. 

I doubt very much if lowly Farmers are as high up the food chain as the BKK office workers, so testing and reporting is probably seen as more of a hindrance.

 

[anchadian]

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000525

 

 

Governor vows to contain Klong Toei cluster within two weeks

The serious outbreak of Covid-19 in Klong Toei’s slums should be contained within two weeks, Bangkok Governor Aswin Kwanmuang said on Tuesday.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by anchadian

[meltonpie]

41 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I stated that I personally don't know how the Thai government conducts random sampling, but I am sure that they do. Given that the numbers of new cases closely correlates with the positivity rate implied by their testing, it sure looks like they know what they are doing.

 

 

????

ok

whatever....

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

“We expect to test up to 20,000 people living in Klong Toei from the estimated total of 90,000 people in the areas.”

A ticking time bomb about to go boom.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000525

 

 

Governor vows to contain Klong Toei cluster within two weeks

The serious outbreak of Covid-19 in Klong Toei’s slums should be contained within two weeks, Bangkok Governor Aswin Kwanmuang said on Tuesday.

 

I guess that fits in with their announcement that the pro active testing finishes on the 19th May.............lol

[anchadian]

https://prachatai.com/english/node/9221

 

Local communities struggling to contain Covid-19 as the poor are hit hardest

 

Submitted on Tue, 4 May 2021 - 02:44 PM

“The rich get infected, the poor be damned” describes the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand, especially now that the disease, starting from the VVIP guests at luxury night clubs, has reached densely-populated communities in Bangkok.

 

As a result of poor attempts at disease control by the government, economic and social capital have become major factors when individuals make life-changing decisions about the risk of infection and what to do if they get infected.

Edited May 4, 2021 by anchadian

[Bkk Brian]

Specific CCSA to be set up for Bangkok as fight against COVID-19 intensifies

The Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) has intensified efforts to contain the continuing surge of COVID-19 infections in Bangkok and its peripherals by setting up an “area CCSA”, also headed by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

 

Dr. Taweesin said that the Emergency Operations Centre of Public Health Ministry has considered setting up field hospitals in Yellow Zone provinces, but is concerned that there may be insufficient medical personnel to man them, so health volunteers should be mobilized to help.

Those who are interested in volunteering can contact Line @Thaimedolunteer.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/specific-ccsa-to-be-set-up-for-bangkok-as-fight-against-covid-19-intensifies/

[meltonpie]

54 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I stated that I personally don't know how the Thai government conducts random sampling, but I am sure that they do. Given that the numbers of new cases closely correlates with the positivity rate implied by their testing, it sure looks like they know what they are doing.

 

 

 

But for your information according to the moph data:

 

Number of tests completed for 7 days ending 1st May 109,358 (av 15622 per day)

Number of tests for previous 7 days ending 24th April 105548  (av 15078 per day)

 

In the one week period leading up to 1st May new cases increased by 26.4%

The rate of infection was 12.8%.

Amount of testing went up 3.6%.

 

But I am sure they know what they are doing

 

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

But for your information according to the moph data:

 

Number of tests completed for 7 days ending 1st May 109,358 (av 15622 per day)

Number of tests for previous 7 days ending 24th April 105548  (av 15078 per day)

 

In the one week period leading up to 1st May new cases increased by 26.4%

The rate of infection was 12.8%.

Amount of testing went up 3.6%.

 

But I am sure they know what they are doing

 

If the national positivity rate in Thailand was truly 12.8% in the week leading up to 1st May, the number of cases right now would not be declining, but would instead be spiking. Where random sampling figures have been listed, the positivity rate has not been that high.

 

Clearly, understanding the data is a problem. 
 

Here is a snippet from the Pattaya News today about testing:

 

”Today, a total of 242 contacts were searched, and 1,231 more proactive ones were searched (pending results).
Aggressive searching, 715 more royal vehicles”

 

That looks like more than 2,000 tests, with 91 positive. But, it’s unlikely that more than 10% of all lab tests were performed in Chonburi alone. We are not getting the full picture.

 

What we do know is that the infection rate has been lower or stable for the last 10 days.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Danderman123

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

If the national positivity rate in Thailand was truly 12.8% in the week leading up to 1st May, the number of cases right now would not be declining, but would instead be spiking. Where random sampling figures have been listed, the positivity rate has not been that high.

 

Clearly, understanding the data is a problem. 

That depends on how much you test. Test less get less, test more get more.

 

Perhaps you should analysis the figures yourself from the data officially provided? You'll get a clearer understanding

 

 

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

If they did random testing one would have thought they would announce this is some shape or form, proactive/target testing in cluster areas is very different.

 

Effective random testing would mean going to areas with very little cases or none at all that are reported to measure whether there are any infections at all.

 

Todays overall positivity rate is 8.7%. 1773 cases found and 20,039 lab tests.

This positivity rate is close to the one published by some Hospital that performed Drive thro testing about 2 weeks ago

They said positivity was 9 % of all tests.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

"...Travellers have been advised to check before starting their journeys, because restrictions have now been imposed in 53 out of Thailand’s 77 provinces, under which everyone entering these provinces will be subject to mandatory quarantine.

 

The 53 provinces are:

• 15 provinces in the northern region, namely Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Tak, Nakhon Sawan, Nan, Phayao, Phichit, Phitsanuloke, Phetchabun, Phrae, Lamphun, Lampang, Sukhothai, Uttradit and Uthai Thani.
   
• 6 provinces in central and eastern regions, namely Chai Nat, Nakhon Nayok, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Lop Buri, Sing Buri and Suphan Buri.
   
• 20 provinces in northeastern region, namely Kalasin, Khon Kaen, Chaiyaphum, Nakhon Phanom, Nakhon Ratchasima, Bung Karn, Buri Ram, Maha Sarakham, Mukdahan, Yasothon, Roi-et, Loei, Si Sa Ket, Sakhon Nakhon, Surin, Nong Khai, Nong Bua Lamphu, Amnat Charoen, Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani.
   
• 12 provinces southern region, namely Krabi, Chumpon, Trang, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Narathiwat, Pattani, Phang-nga, Phatthalung, Ranong, Songkhla, Satun and Surat Thani."
   

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/specific-ccsa-to-be-set-up-for-bangkok-as-fight-against-covid-19-intensifies/

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/318532079765123/

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

19 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I

”Today, a total of 242 contacts were searched, and 1,231 more proactive ones were searched (pending results).
Aggressive searching, 715 more royal vehicles”

 

That looks like more than 2,000 tests, with 91 positive. But, it’s unlikely that more than 10% of all lab tests were performed in Chonburi alone. We are not getting the full picture.

 

What we do know is that the infection rate has been lower or stable for the last 10 days.

I agree, you're not getting the full picture because you are only looking at Chonburi where they have been doing proactive testing. All lab tests done there are sent to the central database and published along with the others. You need to take a look at the overall figures not just Chonburi. 

 

Rather than guess on percentages, tests etc take a look at the official data and work it out?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Meanwhile, the number of Thai provinces asking their residents to stay indoors during late night and overnight hours because of COVID, so-called "soft curfews," has risen to 28 out of 77 provinces, not including Bangkok.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/318532133098451/

 

Night-time restrictions currently imposed in 28 provinces

CENTRAL REGION

1. Chai Nat, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
2. Nakhon Pathom, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
3. Nakhon Nayok, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
4. Nonthaburi, 21.00-04.00 Hrs.
5. Pathum Thani, 21.00-04.00 Hrs.
6. Phetchaburi, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
7. Ratchaburi, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
8. Samut Prakan, 21.00-04.00 Hrs.
9. Samut Sakhon, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
10. Suphan Buri, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.

NORTHERN REGION

1. Phrae, 23.00-03.00 Hrs.
2. Uthai Thani, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.

NORTHEASTERN REGION

1. Bueng Kan, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
2. Buri Ram, all day
3. Chaiyaphum, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
4. Nakhon Ratchasima, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
5. Nong Khai, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
6. Ubon Ratchathani, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.
7. Yasothon, 23.00-04.00 Hrs.

SOUTHERN REGION

1. Krabi, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
2. Pattani, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
3. Phatthalung, 22.00-03.00 Hrs.
4. Phuket, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
5. Ranong, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
6. Songkhla, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
7. Surat Thani, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.
8. Trang, 22.00-03.00 Hrs.
9. Yala, 22.00-04.00 Hrs.

https://www.tatnews.org/2021/05/night-time-restrictions-imposed-in-a-number-of-thai-provinces/

 

[Petey11]

33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

If the national positivity rate in Thailand was truly 12.8% in the week leading up to 1st May, the number of cases right now would not be declining, but would instead be spiking. Where random sampling figures have been listed, the positivity rate has not been that high.

 

Clearly, understanding the data is a problem. 
 

Here is a snippet from the Pattaya News today about testing:

 

”Today, a total of 242 contacts were searched, and 1,231 more proactive ones were searched (pending results).
Aggressive searching, 715 more royal vehicles”

 

That looks like more than 2,000 tests, with 91 positive. But, it’s unlikely that more than 10% of all lab tests were performed in Chonburi alone. We are not getting the full picture.

 

What we do know is that the infection rate has been lower or stable for the last 10 days.

Those 2000 tests are still awaiting results by the reading of it, I have read the article myself. These may take up to 4 days to feed into official figures released.

[Danderman123]

39 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

Those 2000 tests are still awaiting results by the reading of it, I have read the article myself. These may take up to 4 days to feed into official figures released.

The numbers posted are consistent with the numbers that Chonburi has posted for the last few days.

 

We are still stuck with the contradiction between claims of a high positivity rate but lowering infection rate. Something is wrong.

[Danderman123]

Rawai sea gypsies test COVID negative in mass check campaign

 

Well, here’s 260 negative Covid tests. That’s a positivity rate of 0%.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The numbers posted are consistent with the numbers that Chonburi has posted for the last few days.

 

We are still stuck with the contradiction between claims of a high positivity rate but lowering infection rate. Something is wrong.

Yes not enough testing, check the official figures instead of speculating, accurate reporting is important. From there you can see exactly what is going on. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

There was no update on the 1st May and so it looks like it was carried over to the 2nd

Edited May 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Fex Bluse]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand on Tuesday reported 1,763 new coronavirus cases and 27 deaths

 

Magic. Only country on earth where an outbreak has virtually the same number of cases each day. Amazing Thailand

[Danderman123]

And proactive testing at the Municipality School 2, Thanon Udon Thani yesterday, examined a total of 1,139 cases, including 938 Rapid Test cases, 188 PCRs, and 13 others. Found an infected person.

 

from a couple of days ago, very low infection rate. I noticed that the hospitals were reporting low patient levels.

 

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes not enough testing, check the official figures instead of speculating, accurate reporting is important. From there you can see exactly what is going on. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

There was no update on the 1st May and so it looks like it was carried over to the 2nd

Oddly, the number of detected cases is not impacted by variations in the number of tests.

[ThailandRyan]

6 hours ago, phills2k1 said:

90,000 people in Klong Tuey where they're afraid of a mass spread, yet they plan is to test only 1,000 per day.  How in the hell does that make ANY sense?

 

Unless of course they 1) don't want the numbers to jump like they know they will and 2) don't have the capacity to quarantine everyone. So of course, the virus will spread like wildfire there

 

Should be fun!

Nailed it with this post. Your right in the fact that capacity for quarantine of positive patients will be outpaced by what they have room for.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Oddly, the number of detected cases is not impacted by variations in the number of tests.

It includes all provinces where one province reports higher or lower on the day. These are the overall tests, please head to the link and analysis for yourself to confirm the numbers.