Thai finance ministry sees economy beating forecast due to relief measures

[webfact]

FILE PHOTO: Construction workers are seen in a building in Bangkok, Thailand March 8, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is likely to grow more than the forecast of 2.3% this year, helped by new relief measures to ease the impact of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a finance ministry official said on Friday.

 

The new measures approved earlier this week would boost economic growth by more than 1 percentage point, Kulaya Tantitemit, head of the finance ministry's fiscal policy office, told a briefing.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon, and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Martin Petty)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-05-08

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[RichardColeman]

Only way Thailand GDP will be above 2.3% is if they open fully without hoops to fully vaccinated tourists in October. And to do that they will have to confirm that by August

[Flying Saucage]

40 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Only way Thailand GDP will be above 2.3% is if they open fully without hoops to fully vaccinated tourists in October. And to do that they will have to confirm that by August

 

But, even as it is quite obvious in the meantime - from countries like Israel - that vaccinated tourists neither pose a relevant risk to others, nor are at risk themselves anymore, such a decision would require an unlikely amount of common sense from the Thai authorities. An amount of common sense which is likely out of limits for them, unfortunately. So, I don't hold my breath.

 

[Brierley]

1 minute ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

But, even as it is quite obvious in the meantime - from countries like Israel - that vaccinated tourists neither pose a relevant risk to others, nor are at risk themselves anymore, such a decision would require an unlikely amount of common sense from the Thai authorities. An amount of common sense which is likely out of limits for them, unfortunately. So, I don't hold my breath.

 

How is it obvious that vaccinated tourists don't pose a risk to others when they are still able to pass on the virus? Being vaccinated doesn't mean that you are not contagious to others, it simply means you yourself are mostly free from symptoms.

[Flying Saucage]

5 minutes ago, Brierley said:

How is it obvious that vaccinated tourists don't pose a risk to others when they are still able to pass on the virus? Being vaccinated doesn't mean that you are not contagious to others, it simply means you yourself are mostly free from symptoms.

 

It's obvious and backed by scientists. The daily number of deaths in Israel, where around 70% of the people have their jab now, is down to 0 to 1 now, despite the remaining 30% are not yet vaccinated. This is a fantastic statistics which clearly shows that vaccinated people pose no risk to others anymore, at least almost no risk.

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Flying Saucage

[Brierley]

2 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

It's obvious and backed by scientists. The daily number of deaths in Israel, where around 70% of the people have their jab now, is down to 0 to 1 now, despite the remaining 30% are not yet vaccinated. This is a fantastic statistics which clearly shows that vaccinated people pose no risk to others anymore, at least almost no risk.

 

Please provide a link to an established authoritative medical source which confirms vaccinated people are no longer contagious and cannot pass along the covid19 virus to others.

[Brierley]

The CDC says:

 

Although the risk of COVID-19 infection may be minimal to the fully vaccinated person themselves, vaccinated persons should be mindful of the very low potential risk of transmitting the virus to others if they become infected, especially if they are visiting with unvaccinated people at increased risk for severe illness ...Apr 29, 2564 BE

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html#:~:text=Although the risk of COVID,increased risk for severe illness

 

If you can't disprove that, don't post.

 

[Brierley]

3 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

OMG, I never wrote that the risk is zero, I wrote that there is almost no risk, and this exactly what your link above says: "vaccinated persons should be mindful of the very low potential risk of transmitting the virus to others".

 

Your link! If you love scaremongering and wet your pants, feel free to continue. I will follow common sense.

Risk is relative, not absolute, what is low risk for a person aged under 30 years is likely to be high risk for those over 70 years. And not all vaccines are created equal, the risk varies between different vaccines.....this may help you better understand:

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext#:~:text=Ranking by reported efficacy gives,for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.

[BoganInParasite]

Well if the forecast bar could be lowered any further....

[metisdead]

A post containing content what was copy and pasted from some site without a valid supporting link has been removed as well as the replies.  "feel free to ask Google" is not a valid link to the specific information being posted. 

[RotBenz8888]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economy is likely to grow more than the forecast of 2.3% this year, helped by new relief measures to ease the impact of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a finance ministry official said on Friday.

The TAT lunatics obviously got new jobs at the finance ministry. 

[realfunster]

2 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

It's obvious and backed by scientists. The daily number of deaths in Israel, where around 70% of the people have their jab now, is down to 0 to 1 now, despite the remaining 30% are not yet vaccinated. This is a fantastic statistics which clearly shows that vaccinated people pose no risk to others anymore, at least almost no risk.

 

 

3 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

But, even as it is quite obvious in the meantime - from countries like Israel - that vaccinated tourists neither pose a relevant risk to others, nor are at risk themselves anymore,

 

Starting with the second point first, as far as I can see, Israel is opening on May 23rd to tourists from 14 selected countries. As this is a prospective measure (which by definition has not happened..,) and a matter of judgement/opinion please clarify how it is ‘quite obvious’ that vaccinated tourists pose no risk ? If that is indeed the case, why would they not be letting in vaccinated people from all countries ? Are they lacking in ‘common sense’, as you put it ?

 

I am sure you are aware of this but you are trying to compare a country with one of the first roll-outs, which started in December 2020 and which has achieved a 70% roll-out vs a 1% roll-out country.

 

The reason the death rates are low in Israel are likely to be (i) lower R rate and (ii) vaccine protection from serious illness. Just keep in mind, until about 6 weeks ago Israel (a smallish country) was running over 2.5k cases per day. Perhaps a little early to be drawing cast-iron conclusions on vaccine impacts ? 

 

IIRC Thailand is ‘hopefully’ aiming for 70% by 31/12/21. That would seem to be a more realistic target for tourism than the October timeline mentioned above, as by then the Thai population will have broad vaccine protection from infection & serious illness. Exception might be if they can sandbox Phuket (for example) although I have my doubts if that could be handled properly....

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economy is likely to grow more than the forecast of 2.3% this year, helped by new relief measures to ease the impact of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a finance ministry official said on Friday.

And we all believe the finance ministry.

[ChrisY1]

Usually a mark of growing economies is the number of cranes and new buildings and infrasructure. There are not many cranes on the skyline in BKK...

[Surelynot]

There has to be an expensive, time delayed, payback at some point, otherwise, why not provide a continuous stream of stimulus packages to the poor and middle class.

[oznomad]

[Cake Monster]

 

4 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

Usually a mark of growing economies is the number of cranes and new buildings and infrasructure. There are not many cranes on the skyline in BKK...

Have TAT staff member been seconded to the Finance Ministry now.

Even the Finance Ministry has caught the Brain Fart Syndrome.

I was always told you had to look at sales of new Fork Lift Trucks, or their Rentals, to forecast in which direction an Economy was heading.

[overherebc]

10 hours ago, Brierley said:

How is it obvious that vaccinated tourists don't pose a risk to others when they are still able to pass on the virus? Being vaccinated doesn't mean that you are not contagious to others, it simply means you yourself are mostly free from symptoms.

Or basically you will have a very good chance of not getting seriously sick from Covid.

Just a question.

If you've had the jabs and you 'somehow' get infected/tested will you still get a cardboard bed for a couple of weeks?

[Brierley]

13 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Or basically you will have a very good chance of not getting seriously sick from Covid.

Just a question.

If you've had the jabs and you 'somehow' get infected/tested will you still get a cardboard bed for a couple of weeks?

An excellent question......I don't know.

[MrJ2U]

16 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

It's obvious and backed by scientists. The daily number of deaths in Israel, where around 70% of the people have their jab now, is down to 0 to 1 now, despite the remaining 30% are not yet vaccinated. This is a fantastic statistics which clearly shows that vaccinated people pose no risk to others anymore, at least almost no risk.

 

If you get the virus from a person who's vaccinated and your not then your saying there as safe as a vaccinated person?

 

You sound like an Anutin follower.

[Soikhaonoiken]

The only hope of increasing GDP above 2.3 is to get the virus under control, but unfortunately they are not making much progress as today

[Brierley]

Posters seem almost obsessed with GDP growth figures and whether it will be 3.5%, 2.3% or 1.2%, it's only a measure of how much the economy has grown or not. There are so many components to GDP that obsessing with the headline figure is pointless. Of course there will be winners and losers every year, especially after a major economic event such as a pandemic. The realty is that if government spends enough money on economic recovery campaigns to help business and the poor, that money is included in the GDP growth figure so the economy could be seen to grow, purely by virtue of government spending!

Agriculture and capital inflows are worth watching because they are core growth numbers and they are not influenced by government spending. And when more people get vaccinated, domestic tourism will also be a factor to watch.

[Brunolem]

58 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Posters seem almost obsessed with GDP growth figures and whether it will be 3.5%, 2.3% or 1.2%, it's only a measure of how much the economy has grown or not. 

 

The realty is that if government spends enough money on economic recovery campaigns to help business and the poor, that money is included in the GDP growth figure so the economy could be seen to grow, purely by virtue of government spending!

 

 

GDP will grow...compared with 2020 when it was crashing down...but it will not grow compared with 2019, because a chunk of 15% of GDP is still missing, following the collapse of tourism.

 

And yes, GDP grows artificially thanks to government spending, as it does in the US and many other so-called developed countries.

 

It's easy, borrow or print money and give it to the masses, "et voilà" you got growth.

 

This new kind of economic system is called MMT, for Modern Monetary Theory, but often translated as Magic Money Tree...

[Brierley]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

 

GDP will grow...compared with 2020 when it was crashing down...but it will not grow compared with 2019, because a chunk of 15% of GDP is still missing, following the collapse of tourism.

 

And yes, GDP grows artificially thanks to government spending, as it does in the US and many other so-called developed countries.

 

It's easy, borrow or print money and give it to the masses, "et voilà" you got growth.

 

This new kind of economic system is called MMT, for Modern Monetary Theory, but often translated as Magic Money Tree...

The 15% that is tourism that you quoted needs closer inspection. International tourism in 2019 was equal to 11% of GDP, domestic tourism was equal to 7%. But that total of of 18% of GDP doesn't sit in the GDP table as single block with a label called tourism hanging over it. Tourism is spread across a range of Goods and Services that is equal to 18% of GDP, it is not 18% in a single block. Since the end of 2019, many of those goods and services have recovered to different degrees and other areas of the economy have compensated, exports of goods being one last month, agriculture being another. Of course many areas have not recovered and they reman in the doldrums. But it would be a big mistake to think that 2020 or 2021 GDP figures will come in at -15% (or really -18%) below 2019 figures, just because that's the total value of tourism,  they won't.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Brierley said:

The 15% that is tourism that you quoted needs closer inspection. International tourism in 2019 was equal to 11% of GDP, domestic tourism was equal to 7%. But that total of of 18% of GDP doesn't sit in the GDP table as single block with a label called tourism hanging over it. Tourism is spread across a range of Goods and Services that is equal to 18% of GDP, it is not 18% in a single block. Since the end of 2019, many of those goods and services have recovered to different degrees and other areas of the economy have compensated, exports of goods being one last month, agriculture being another. Of course many areas have not recovered and they reman in the doldrums. But it would be a big mistake to think that 2020 or 2021 GDP figures will come in at -15% (or really -18%) below 2019 figures, just because that's the total value of tourism,  they won't.

Of course GDP won't be down 15%, but this is, in large part, due to government handouts of all kinds, and not because of some "magic" recovery.

 

From what I have read, Thailand has increased it's national debt from around 40 to around 60% of GDP in one year, which is huge.

 

No wonder that GDP has not collapsed...but at what (future) price?

[metisdead]

A post with a screenshot of content copied from some site without a supporting link has been removed. 

[Brierley]

40 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Of course GDP won't be down 15%, but this is, in large part, due to government handouts of all kinds, and not because of some "magic" recovery.

 

From what I have read, Thailand has increased it's national debt from around 40 to around 60% of GDP in one year, which is huge.

 

No wonder that GDP has not collapsed...but at what (future) price?

Government debt at the turn of the century was around 58% of GDP, subsequently it has reduced but it    increased once again as a result of covid. In 2000, a large portion of that debt was foreign debt so the risk was quite high, today it's less than 2%. So for Thai government debt to be heading back towards 60% of GDP, is in itself not a big issue, arguably that debt today is less risky than it was in 2000 because 98% of it is in THB. https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/thailand

 

 

 

 

 

[BestB]

I am struggling to see the reasoning or the hope for growth while country is in not lockdown but half the business ordered closed.

 

as for relief measures, heard that before but yet to see it, just like soft loans to SME which did not get to any SME

[Brunolem]

28 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Government debt at the turn of the century was around 58% of GDP, subsequently it has reduced but it    increased once again as a result of covid. In 2000, a large portion of that debt was foreign debt so the risk was quite high, today it's less than 2%. So for Thai government debt to be heading back towards 60% of GDP, is in itself not a big issue, arguably that debt today is less risky than it was in 2000 because 98% of it is in THB. https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/thailand

 

 

 

 

 

This is not my point.

 

My point is that the forecasted GDP growth is not the result of a real and sound economic recovery, but of massive government intervention.

 

Part of the issue lies in the definition of GDP, which only takes into account the assets side of a country's balance sheet.

 

If one was to also take into account the liabilities side (debt), one would quickly discover that, for most countries there is no actual growth (increase of assets - increase of liabilities), and for many there hasn't been for years, or even decades.

[mikebell]

On 5/8/2021 at 3:24 AM, webfact said:

a finance ministry official said on Friday.

formerly working for TAT.