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Gloom and Doom, revisited.


swissie

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15 hours ago, swissie said:

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.


Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

 

I think you are only focusing on the vaccination rates in Europe. 

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone was vaccinated in Europe, today, and they all had 10 certificates each to prove it.  None of them will be holidaying to Thailand until around 45,500,000 Thai's have been vaccinated, twice.   

 

Currently, they have vaccinated around 2% of Thai's.  They have about another 63% still to be vaccinated.  

 

Later this month, the world will get to see Thailand's vaccination roll out capabilities, and from there, some idea of when Thailand may open the borders can be roughly predicted, and notice I used the word "may" not "will."   

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10 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I think you are only focusing on the vaccination rates in Europe. 

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone was vaccinated in Europe, today, and they all had 10 certificates each to prove it.  None of them will be holidaying to Thailand until around 45,500,000 Thai's have been vaccinated, twice.   

 

Currently, they have vaccinated around 2% of Thai's.  They have about another 63% still to be vaccinated.  

 

Later this month, the world will get to see Thailand's vaccination roll out capabilities, and from there, some idea of when Thailand may open the borders can be roughly predicted, and notice I used the word "may" not "will."   

What is the purpose of a vaccination? To prevent getting infected. Currently available vaccines are highly effective. So, for a vaccinated Tourist, it is of lesser importance if 18% or 48% of the Thai population is vaccinated or not.


Case in point: Very soon, vaccinated Europeans will be allowed to travel freely in the entire Schengen aerea. Thailand can not afford to remain a "Corona island" forever.

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23 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

This is where you are wrong.

 

The purpose of vaccination is to stop you getting very sick from covid, and therefore dying from covid. 

 

Vaccination DOES NOT stop you from catching covid and spreading covid. This is why it does not matter if YOU are vaccinated, if the population of the country your are traveling to ARE NOT vaccinated.  

 

 

Some are more effective than others.  

 

Sinovac in not the most effective.

 

 

Wrong.

 

For a vaccinated tourist, it's very important, because it means you will not be going to Thailand until at least 65% of the Thai population have be vaccinated.  

 

 

Thailand can not afford to open unsafely and become a "hub" for covid transmission.  

Your theory of how the virus spreads must be flawed.


BECAUSE: If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.


Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.


I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.

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31 minutes ago, swissie said:

Your theory of how the virus spreads must be flawed.


BECAUSE: If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.


Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.


I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.

 

It's not my theory, it's a fact.  

 

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they may be asymptomatic.  

 

When Thailand's borders will open, so you can come to Thailand, in now in the hands of the Thai's, and their vaccination program. 

 

You will know more in a few weeks of Thailand's vaccination rate capabilities, and by that, you will know roughly when you can come to Thailand.  

 

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Just now, Leaver said:

 

It's not my theory, it's a fact.  

 

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they are asymptomatic.  

 

Problem is, there is so much <deleted> covering,  no one knows what the truth is.

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3 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Problem is, there is so much <deleted> covering,  no one knows what the truth is.

 

There's also some politics involved.  

 

No government, of any country, wants to be seen on the world stage as putting their citizens at risk.  Much easier, although costly in the terms of lost tourism revenue, is to have the population vaccinated before opening borders.  

 

With the Thai government not giving any substantial financial assistance to the people, they can afford to remain closed.  

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On 6/4/2021 at 2:26 PM, Leaver said:

 

 

 

Where do you think all the demand, virtually overnight, is going to come from?  

 

Due to the high rents here, the margins are so fine that without a Pattaya back in full swing, there is no chance of viability. 

 

A commercial rental market correction will be needed, or places will just sit derelict until tourism to Pattaya is back to near pre covid, which could take years.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, Yes and yes!

 

And there you have it in a nutshell.

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I look on Baht sold regularly out of boredom and for what is around and I can still see that there are those expecting a miracle whereby they can get their investment back by the prices they are asking and thinking somebody will pay for them.

 

If it is a freehold condo or a business that is freehold property and going in a fire sale as they are desperate for money or want the minimum so they can walk away with something before the bank takes it, then fair enough. Leasehold bars etc? forget it!

 

However, what I am seeing in adverts is not reflecting that. Still people dreaming of recouping their cash.

 

I have just bought another house, in .........the UK!.......... Steady and certain.

 

No plans for anything here unless as stated above, freehold and fire sale.

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