Thailand must open to foreign tourism and accept some risk: PM

[wensiensheng]

40 minutes ago, sapson said:

 

 

Spot on! if they are to fully staff the hotels and bars etc for the avalanche of eager tourists they will need their return from the Issan provinces where testing has been miniscule and the vaccine roll out floundering staggered...........yep so untested unvaccinated staff to your positions in the shambox.

It’s a good point to raise in terms of how would hotels cope if there were to be a need for staff to return.

 

the staff wouldn’t arrive back untested and unvaccinated though, because residents of Thailand need to have been tested 72 hours before arrival, have had 2 jabs of sinovac or 1 AZ, or quarantine for 2 weeks.

 

but the bottle neck would be how the staff can get vaccinated given the low supplies of vaccine in Isaan. It’s possible some might go the test route, if they did, you’d have an influx of unvaccinated staff.

 

it’s not been thought through properly, but I think they will get away with it because with the small number of tourist arrivals hotels will be able to survive on skeleton staff.

[sapson]

3 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

because residents of Thailand need to have been tested 72 hours before arrival,

 

if that happens what percentage of the staff would end up in an overflowing field hospital and not serving cocktails in a five star resort!

[wensiensheng]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Didn't I read a post elsewhere that China is restricting overseas travel until 2022? The Chinese are quick to avoid a place when negative sentiment is generated, like a boat accident or 'Flight of the Gibbon' incident. I am intrigued to know where are these risk adverse Phuket tourists will hail from.... Bangkok?

I can only think that some people might want to get out of the Middle East at this time of year. But even that would be low volume, I find it a stretch to believe that the average Muslim family is going to come, grandma and all. Maybe some of the single expats?

 

elsewhere, I struggle to see any source of volume tourists. Sure, there will be some outliers who will come, there are individuals who even visit war torn areas of the world, but mainstream volume tourism, I just don’t see it.

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, sapson said:

 

if that happens what percentage of the staff would end up in an overflowing field hospital and not serving cocktails in a five star resort!

It’s absolutely a good point and one that should be cause for concern.

 

uninfected but unvaccinated people are just more fodder for the virus cannon. Even if they don’t end up in hospital, an increase in cases makes it that much harder to attract tourists.

 

a lot of recent decisions meant to facilitate the arrival of tourists, are also decisions that might end up driving them away.

[coxo]

Good decision, about time, this virus is going nowhere so time to live with it. As far as a vaccine goes',,, well it nether prevents you catching or transmitting the disease so that's a non event, all for it, open up...

[wensiensheng]

3 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

The chances of this happening are just down to math. Either a person is willing to courageously take the odds of a ~99% chance of surviving the pandemic or they aren't.

 

And those that aren't willing to assume even that amount of risk can hide away as much as possible if they want to. That's ok. But asking everyone else to accommodate that fear for a potentially indefinite amount of time is unreasonable.

 

Any of us could wake up any day and die for any reason. It's a game of probabilities. And one of the finest arts of life is managing the risk tradeoffs inherent to living.

 

Having now spent a bit of time on Thai Visa, one of the most surprising things to me is how so many of you have lived for so long and yet understand so little about life.

 

If Thailand can't/won't institute a full lockdown, then this is the right way to go.

Any thoughts on what happens if the medical system gets overwhelmed and the death rate goes to 5% because those that develop severe symptoms can’t get medical care and others sick from other illnesses, also can’t get treatment?

 

I know I’m not going to change your mind and I just pulled a 5% figure out of thin air, but I don’t think you can assume the status quo remains if medical care isn’t available.

 

it’s at least something to factor into the equation when assessing the consequences of actions.

Edited June 23, 2021 by wensiensheng

[inThailand]

Didn't he just say the other day in 120 days, in Oct? 

 

LOS = Land Of  Schizophrenia

[Xonax]

If only the Thai government had ordered vaccines in time and not refused to prohibit travelling during Songkran, Thailand would have been open for vaccinated foreign tourists already. Now we can only hope for, that the same lack of common sense will not happen again next year and every following year.

[jacko45k]

34 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Maybe some of the single expats?

Not for the usual reasons.......

[The Cipher]

15 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Any thoughts on what happens if the medical system gets overwhelmed and the death rate goes to 5% because those that develop severe symptoms can’t get medical care and others sick from other illnesses, also can’t get treatment?

 

I know I’m not going to change your mind and I just pulled a 5% figure out of thin air, but I don’t think you can assume the status quo remains if medical care isn’t available.

 

it’s at least something to factor into the equation when assessing the consequences of actions.

 

Best believe, if it's even possible to change anyone's mind on this site it's going to be mine ????.

 

The right path forward is to choose the least bad option in a menu of only bad options. That choice is made based on what we know now. But the death rate is something to watch. The situation isn't static and if a course correction is necessary later, it's necessary.

[jack71]

3 hours ago, WineOh said:

5 of my family members have already had it back in the UK.

 

None of which ended up in ICU and all of which said it was just like the flu with a bit of shortness of breath.

My brother lost his sense of taste for 3 months and now it is back.

 

That's about the worst that happened.

 

 

I get it. You're the kind of guy who has an answer for everything....

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, coxo said:

Good decision, about time, this virus is going nowhere so time to live with it. As far as a vaccine goes',,, well it nether prevents you catching or transmitting the disease so that's a non event, all for it, open up...

Where did you come up with the notion that vaccines don't prevent catching covid or preventing its  transmission?

Do you believe that any effectiveness less then 100% means vaccines are useless?

[Thomas J]

LOL What bolt of lightning hit them jarring them into reality. Did they really think that Thailand could isolate itself from the rest of the world until the entire world was COVID free?  It looks like they have come to the conclusion that was obvious from the beginning. Killing the patient by strangling the economy was not a good alternative 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, WineOh said:

5 of my family members have already had it back in the UK.

 

None of which ended up in ICU and all of which said it was just like the flu with a bit of shortness of breath.

My brother lost his sense of taste for 3 months and now it is back.

 

That's about the worst that happened.

 

 

I guess the UK Public Health Services can exclusively reference your family for any and all future pandemics. That should translate into huge savings of public expenditures.

[Guderian]

He's lost the plot entirely, Nero fiddling while Rome burns comes to mind. The many families who are going to lose loved ones as a result of his crookedness and stupidity will not view this government kindly, whether they've been supporters in the past or not.

[SwampyThai]

 

"In order to do this he admitted that some risks must be taken"? The risks will taken by the fully vaccinated people travelling to a woefully low vaccinated country.

[RichardColeman]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

It was therefore necessary to re-open the country before it was completely ruined.

 

Think the guy is in for an enormous shock in the next few months when nobody comes and there are no coffers flowing in.

 

Next step will be slow reducing of tourist hoop demands out of desperation. Thailand has no great tax collecting system, and with no tax coming in, the money borrowed  is reliant on tourism to pay it back.

 

The hole in his bucket though is Thailand is going to start going on red lists with 50 dead a day

[BarraMarra]

4 hours ago, spacex said:

If you are in the unhealthiest 0.15% of the population, you are correct be worried. Better get yourself healthier.

 

"Conclusions: All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021.  That's 15 out of 10,000 ifr.  Better get healthy or keep hiding!

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

 

 

 

 

People who anti this Anti Vac should be taken inside an ICU and see what covid does. A Week before your sat with your wife having a beer,  no underlying health problems never smoked, eaten healthy then because your not  vaccinated you pop round to visit a family member who unknown to you or he / she is carrying Covid 19. lets say the Delta Indian variant. A week later your saying goodbye to him/she because unfortunately the Respiratory system has been unable to respond, due sadly to the Covid 19 that infected and destroyed there lungs. This is not a scare story this is what happens to everyone who dies from Covid 19, Every day and how quick it takes life.

[Chiang Mai Bill]

4 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

Pre covid-19 I seem to remember reading that Thailand's economy was not dependent upon the tourist dollar. What seems to have changed?

Reality?

 

I remember, 17 years ago when I first settled in Thailand, a Government minister stating that tourism only contributed an insignificant 10-12%  towards the Thai GDP. At the time I considered it a stupid comment as it seemed pretty significant to me!

 

Of course, the figures quoted are "official" income figures and have never contained the "unofficial and undeclared" money generated by tourists. Tourists are wary of using credit cards in many venues -- and many Thais only want to be paid in cash -- and of course the majority is declared for tax purposes!

 

Thai ministers are far too naive, poorly educated, and inexperienced to run an economy and have only managed to do so due to the poorly educated masses and military 'might'!

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

the PM accepted that the economy in Thailand was in a mess. 

And with the latest purchase being heralded in BP this Am, it sure as Hell is not going to get any better.

And with Government borrowing hard up against the voluntary 80 % of GDP, they will find it difficult to borrow more money on the International Markets.

Today we have the announcement of this new Transport Plane, there was a purchase of a Private Jet for Government use not so long ago.

There have been procurements of a Fleet of APC from USA, and there are 3 Submarines that need paying for, new Coastal Patrol Vessels Etc Etc Etc.

What other frivolous expenditures are in the pipeline, that the public are unaware of.

People that have Covid have to sleep in Tents because there are not enough Hospital Beds for them, but these people can be plainly seen at night sleeping in their Tents under the Glare of brand new fancy Streetlights that cost a fortune.

[Desire2016]

It's all about money from the PM down, 

He stated that Thailand should take some risks OMG, with only 3%of the population vaxanated its the foolish tourist that are taking the risk, I live in Phuket for 17 years ran successful businesses (not bars) sold out 5 yrs ago best move I did 

[Skeptic7]

Such a novel idea. Some of us been saying this since Day 1. Should have come to this conclusion a year ago.

 

Every aspect of the game of life involves elements of risk. Nothing is risk free...pre, post or during the pandemic. Life goes on...always has and always will...and it should. No guarantees and always risky. Live life to it's fullest...don't let life (and government) live you! 

 

Open it up! Let's get back to a modicum of normalcy. 

[klauskunkel]

Quote

Thailand must open to foreign tourism and accept some risk: PM

Thank you. You have done enough. Now go away.

[Dogmatix]

I know he believes this will boost his popularity enough to call an early election but he needs to wake up and smell the coffee instead of spouting nonsense.  

 

The beta and delta variants are taking hold in Thailand and the beta will be the dominant strain in Bangkok and other parts of the country within a few short weeks.  The delta has the ability to ramp up cases to a multiple of current daily cases within a month.  That could take Thailand well over 8,000 cases a day.  With only 3,000 cases a day hospitals are already overwhelmed and patients will start dying at home or in front of hospitals waiting for beds.  So get your skates on little man and start preparing to help your people for once.  

[Chiang Mai Bill]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I guess the UK Public Health Services can exclusively reference your family for any and all future pandemics. That should translate into huge savings of public expenditures.

Yes, I too am enormously relieved to read WineHo's illuminating comments! In fact the whole world -- especially those in India and Brazil -- and the relatives of the 3,900,000 who have died throughout the world from WineHo's "light case of flue" will be . . . consoled to hear his views!

 

I expect officials from the WHO and major medical publications will already be approaching him for his -- and his family's -- 'experience'!

[ehs818]

In my experience, people (tourists) do not plan to visit active pandemic hot spots or war zones. You choose your definition for what is which and where. But if seems to me that if you want to attract vaccinated tourists, you should first use the lock down time that you have created to actually vaccinate the people who are in those areas where tourists will go so that no one passes along the virus. We are burning precious time here and also usually the left hand knows nothing about what the right hand is doing.

[Dogmatix]

Mor Prom today shows that only 118,000 vaccinations were given yesterday vs the target of 300,000 a day.  And now they need to reduce the gap between AZ shots and revaccinated all the people including medical staff who were vaccinated with overpriced Chinese gunk and have no protection against the beta and delta variants. 

 

The PM has a great deal of work to do before anyone will want to come to a reopened country.

[ericdiam]

Some risk I agree. But sure not in the status the country now is.

Nearly none fully vaccinated people which is a real must with the varriants!!

Daily shortage of vaccines! 

Daily more new infected! 

Hospitals now already full! 

That not a taking a risk. That putting millions in danger of illness and deaths 

[head bender]

• They still don't understand no one is going to come until they open up locally. Westerners are not going anywhere until the economy ie bars and other fun things to do are up and running.

[wensiensheng]

43 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Best believe, if it's even possible to change anyone's mind on this site it's going to be mine ????.

 

The right path forward is to choose the least bad option in a menu of only bad options. That choice is made based on what we know now. But the death rate is something to watch. The situation isn't static and if a course correction is necessary later, it's necessary.

I see.

 

I’m just thinking about the UK as an example. They had a particularly botched response to Covid and reached a point of 60,000 daily cases and a high of 1,800 deaths in one day. 
 

the UK is about the same population as Thailand and I think most would say that’s it’s state medical care exceeds that available in Thailand, both in terms of capacity and overall quality (given regional variations in Thailand). Thailand is currently dealing with the same variant prevalent (alpha) in the UK earlier this year. So it’s not beyond the realm of possibilities that Thailand could reach a similar situation.

 

Are those in government who are endorsing a weakening of the current Thai Covid response, prepared to own their decisions if deaths are 1800 a day, instead of 50 a day. I wonder?

 

the issue of course,  is that if daily cases and deaths reach a level that are just too much to bear, it’s too late. The range of policy options open at that point are really just two, both of which the UK government implemented. A harsh house lockdown for multiple months, and a huge vaccination drive.

 

Our own Brewsterbudgen on this forum will say that a house lockdown is not feasible in Thailand, and the Thai governments vaccination drive is currently a shambles.

 

so, the above is, I feel,  something to consider when modeling is done on the various scenarios that might play out. I wish I could say that I’m sure the Thai government is doing analytical work and modeling before reaching decisions, and not just flying by the seat of its pants. But I can’t.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2021 by wensiensheng