COVID-19: Thailand reports new daily record of 53 deaths; 4,786 new cases

[wensiensheng]

57 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Population change calculations are worth showing and are probably the correct lens to use for the macro effects of Covid, but you also have a valid point in that

my calcs don't capture direct fatality rates from the disease.

 

But although diving into further calculations is possible, it isn't really worth it with this audience. I restated my math with a hypothetical 10x deaths to the stated numbers and the result was still a clip of less than 1% of pop and a net population gain.

The cipher, I think the issue that you have is that your calculations take into account the current known facts and you express them mathematically. It’s dispassionate and does need to be done, but form far from the whole picture.

 

pure math does not take into account current known suspicions, such as long Covid and the rate of  deaths that may occur if health services are overwhelmed. There isn’t enough data yet to factor them in, but we know they are there and can suspect what impact they might have (negative).

 

and then there are future known suspicions such as future mutations. Math can’t tell you what impact future mutations might have because we don’t know what they are yet.

 

and finally there are unknown unknowns.

 

so your pure math based on current data is giving a picture, but it’s a snap shot and we have a whole movie to watch.

 

The issue of lockdown or let the virus take its course is not just a mathematical calculation of, if we lockdown, deaths are this and economic fall out is that, and if we don’t lock down, deaths are still only this many and economic fallout is reduced by that.  there is a much wider risk assessment aspect that has to be brought into play.

 

this is what I tried to put across in my previous post, perhaps badly worded.

 

I am sure that at the Fauchi like levels there are discussions taking place that go beyond just the logistics of what we currently see playing out across news reels. Sure, lockdowns have an impact in the immediate term in result of daily case numbers and financial impact, but I feel there’s a whole additional level out there, which dictates that we need to fight the virus in the here and now, so as to try and avoid a potential bigger, more desperate fight in the future. Lockdowns form part of the current fight.

 

the mathematical calculation of deaths as percentages of this and that, aren’t really a big factor, imho.

 

of course, the human suffering attached to each and every death is a totally different ball game. they are simply tragic. Keeping deaths as low as possible is the only moral thing to do and that means keeping the number of sick people to within the capacity of the health system. or, drastically increase the capacity of the health system to cope with the number of sick people.

 

thanks for your contrarian view point. I have to say it’s a little to clinical for my taste and in my opinion, too limited in scope for anything other than a current sit rep.

[wensiensheng]

24 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Kalasin: 5 yesterday 27 today. Today all schools closed. The missus blames Prayut. So do I.

THAT is certainly a rising trajectory. ????

[Puwa]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So people in this world are more than 3 times as likely to die from hunger and hunger related diseases yet in the last 18 months I have not seen it mentioned once in the main stream media.It has been said that covid restrictions would likely to increase this number.These are very sobering statistics.I wonder why we don't talk about 4.5 million kids dying of hunger and hunger related diseases?

So bottom line is that you are not happy with your own choices of news sources and the people you talk to. I would encourage you to take the initiative and improve these areas of your life.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Protest finally wins Bangkok Covid patient a bed in hospital

 

A 60-year-old Covid-19 patient decided to set up camp at Bangkok’s Nang Loeng Police Station in protest because no hospital beds were made available for her after she tested positive on Sunday.

Zendai, a group that transports Covid-19 patients to hospitals for free, posted the woman’s story on its Facebook page on Tuesday.

It said the woman, who works as a janitor in the capital, decided to move out of her home in Bang Phlat district because she did not want to infect her daughter.

As soon as the group heard of her case, it contacted Royal Rattanakosin Hotel, which has been adapted as a field hospital and found her a bed.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002635

 

--Good on this woman for having the sense of personal responsibility to want to get out of her home and avoid infecting her other family members/daughters, once she had tested positive.

 

--Bad for the Thai government and medical establishment that the current situation with 4,000 to 5,000 new cases per day has deteriorated so much that hospital beds are no longer readily available for those who are seriously ill (which apparently this woman was not).

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Inoculation has all but stagnated again.

No Vaccines maybe.

 

No, it hasn't stagnated, not at 250,000+ doses per weekday in Thailand. But that rate is less than half of what they need to be doing to reach their 70% fully vaccinated goal by the end of the year. They're falling further and further behind day by day.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Since 1 April 2021 230,438 people infected (+9 imported and +4,777 local cases)

1,929 dead +53 49,799 in care 1,911 in ICU and 556 on ventilators 2,415 discharged from care.

 

Once again, the number of new cases in the past 24 hours is about double the number of cases being cleared out of the hospital/field hospital system. A continuation at that pace is not sustainable.

 

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

I dont get this constant belief in "herd immunity". Where is there just 1 shred of evidence that herd immunity works against Covid. Western governments are aiming for 100% innoculation. The herd immunity approach seems more like a willingness to give up hope for 30% of your population.

Let me explain.

 

There is a branch of medicine called “infectious diseases “. Scientists and physicians who specialize in infectious diseases have run across diseases that can be suppressed via vaccines, so they have experience in observing how many people with immunity are required to Sloan down and ultimately stop an epidemic, based on the infectious ness of the particular disease. Because Covid is new, no one knows exactly the level of herd immunity required to stop large scale transmission. But, estimates run from 70 to 85 percent.

[Danderman123]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The bottom line as I see it is people would rather discuss the 4 million deaths in 18 months of mostly old people who have live 70 plus years than the deaths of 4.5 million kids in 18 months by starvation who never got the chance to live 70 plus.I would encourage you to expand your knowledge of what's happening in the world outside of mainstream media and read the article in the link.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic

The part you don’t understand is if appropriate measures are not taken, the 4 million fatality number could increase exponentially and include many young people, as well.

[Rimmer]

Spelling police post removed

 

Off topic post removed

[Bkk Brian]

This study was carried out 1 year ago, before the new variants came along that are far more dangerous.

 

The outbreak of COVID-19 would likely have caused 40 million deaths this year in the absence of any preventative measures.

** UPDATE (24-07-2020): This research (Report 12) has now been peer reviewed and published in Science. **

 

Full peer reviewed study here https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6502/413

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Looks like the government today did not today produce my usual go-to daily graphic showing the daily numbers of self referred, outreach testing and prison cases all totaled into one chart of daily totals going back to the beginning of April... Dunno if it was an oversight, or someone decided they didn't like the way things were looking.

 

So, in the absence of that for the day, I'll offer up this one instead, a color heat map showing the provinces where the highest numbers of reported COVID cases are occurring -- nine provinces including Bangkok today with more than 100 new cases each, as shown by the reddish areas:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/354842936134037

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

And then some odds and ends:

 

Thailand had more double the number COVID deaths reported in the past 24 hours than the UK, with a similar size population, even though the UK had about four times as many new cases. That's the tale of vaccinations (in the UK) or the lack of them (in Thailand):

 

 

 

The trend line of daily cases in Bangkok is looking bad, as already reported above, today was its highest daily tally ever. Bangkok is the second line on the chart below, showing the daily numbers from the past week:

 

 

And then today's update of hospitalized cases, those in critical condition, and the subset of those on ventilators:

 

 

49,799 in various kinds of hospital/field hospital/hospitel facilities.  22,470 in regular hospitals and 27,329 in field hospital type facilities.   1,911 COVID patients in critical condition, with 556 of those on ventilators.

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/3548429

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Bangkok sets new record of 1,826 COVID-19 cases today, out of 4,786 nationwide

Infections in the capital have soared for five consecutive days. Cumulative infections, since April 1st, 2021, have increased to 230,438, including 49,799 who are still undergoing treatment in general and field hospitals. There are 1,911 severe cases and 556 of them need ventilators.

 

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/bangkok-sets-new-record-of-1826-covid-19-cases-today-out-of-4786-nationwide/

This is where it's going to go ballistic.  

The crammed public transit, buses.  

I can only hope that I'm wrong.  So far the reported cases aren't that bad, if you believe the numbers.  

[FarFlungFalang]

21 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

This study was carried out 1 year ago, before the new variants came along that are far more dangerous.

 

The outbreak of COVID-19 would likely have caused 40 million deaths this year in the absence of any preventative measures.

** UPDATE (24-07-2020): This research (Report 12) has now been peer reviewed and published in Science. **

 

Full peer reviewed study here https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6502/413

It seems they based their models on what happened in China during the pandemic,I hope the Chinese data is more reliable than their vaccine.

 

"Assuming the same availability of health care (equivalent to that provided in China) throughout the pandemic, we would expect a lower overall per-capita risk of mortality in lower-income settings owing to the younger age of the populations" 

Edited June 30, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[JAFO]

Pardon me if I missed but there used to be a breakdown on where the cases were being reported by province. Is that still be reported? I just see the total.

 

Thanks

 

 

 

 

[brewsterbudgen]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

I think you guys win. I have been bludgeoned into submission.

That tends to be how it works here!  I for one, like to read contrary views as I am openminded about what it all means and what should be done.  But the 'doom & gloom' crowd are the majority here.  Nice try!

[2 is 1]

21 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Looks like the government today did not today produce my usual go-to daily graphic showing the daily numbers of self referred, outreach testing and prison cases all totaled into one chart of daily totals going back to the beginning of April... Dunno if it was an oversight, or someone decided they didn't like the way things were looking.

 

So, in the absence of that for the day, I'll offer up this one instead, a color heat map showing the provinces where the highest numbers of reported COVID cases are occurring -- nine provinces including Bangkok today with more than 100 new cases each, as shown by the reddish areas:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/354842936134037

 

Even this they color sht is so wrong! If they not watch how many people live in province!

Like Samut Songkhran there is 19 case but only live 200k people! So covid is more spread there than in BKK! Mean more case / 100000 people.

Edited June 30, 2021 by 2 is 1

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, JAFO said:

Pardon me if I missed but there used to be a breakdown on where the cases were being reported by province. Is that still be reported? I just see the total.

 

Thanks

 

Another poster posted that series of graphics for today earlier in this thread.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, JAFO said:

Pardon me if I missed but there used to be a breakdown on where the cases were being reported by province. Is that still be reported? I just see the total.

 

Thanks

 

 

 

 

It's posted in this thread a few pages back.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, 2 is 1 said:

Even this they color sht is so wrong! If they not watch how many people live in province!

Like Samut Songkhran there is 19 case but only live 200k people! So covid is more spread there than in BKK!

 

Yes, those colorings are based on raw numbers of cases, not per capita numbers of cases.

 

[onthedarkside]

A post with two graphics, neither of which had the required weblinks back to their original source, has been removed.

 

[dinsdale]

29 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What makes you think I don't understand this?I understand that Boris and his expert mates sent covid infected patients into nursing homes and they still have their jobs, how they haven't been held to account for this is what I don't understand.Is that a good example of following the experts advice in action?Knowing full well that it was the elderly and frail that were most at risk they went ahead and did this causing probably the most horrific blunder in English history and here he is running around laughing doing his stupid elbow bumps when he should be hanging his head in shame.Is that what you mean by taking the appropriate measures,or would you send the poor into another lockdown and force them into starvation without so much as a blink of the eye?You are right there is so much I don't understand about the way people are behaving and think only of their own pathetically selfish survival.I'll link this article for you to read.

 

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic

Yep. I agree with most but I think lockdowns are essential, however, please allow me to borrow something. I have underlined it. Expert advice in Australia said you do not need masks when the evidence was showing you do. Australia now: You must wear masks but this is only when they are doing lockdowns or there are some cases. Of course this is not just Aus. The benefits of mask wearing was clear from the beginning. The idiots in charge, the idiot medical advisors and I must include many on here said mask wearing is not necessary.  4,000,000 dead so far because of outright stupidity and it continues. Anyway just interesting how these highly paid so-called experts can do a complete 180 like nothing happened. 

p.s. I still think it's a weaponized virus. Something I said in the very early days of this.

Edited June 30, 2021 by dinsdale

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

Even this they color sht is so wrong! If they not watch how many people live in province!

Like Samut Songkhran there is 19 case but only live 200k people! So covid is more spread there than in BKK! Mean more case / 100000 people.

 

On your point, as best as I can recall, the Thai govt and MoPH have only very rarely provided any kind of COVID data / statistics on a per capita basis. Never seen them do province by province breakdowns of cases on a per capita basis.

 

In the bigger wider world outside of Thailand, there are multiple data source you can use to see how Thailand as a whole is doing on a per capita basis on various COVID stats compared to other countries. But inside Thailand, on a province by province basis, they don't seem to want to report data that way for almost anything.

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

If you're ever having one of those days where you're thinking Thailand is really going to the %#%#%, you could always look across the pond to the Philippines to see how they're doing with COVID there... In a country that has about a 55% larger population than Thailand, we see the following results as of today's update -- about 12 times as many deaths, and 5 times as many cases:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/35484293

 

And then you pick up the newspaper, and see what their head honcho is telling the nation regarding their COVID vaccination situation, where they trail even behind lowly Thailand on a percent of population fully vaccinated basis:

 

"In his “Talk to the People” telecast Monday night, he [Duterte] said that people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19 would be arrested. ... The transcript had him saying in colorful Taglish:

 

“They are hard-headed. Don’t get me wrong. There is a crisis being faced in this country. There is a national emergency. If you don’t want to get vaccinated, I will have you arrested. And I will inject the vaccine in your butt (¡Curse!). You are pests! We are already suffering and you’re adding to the burden.

 

“So all you Filipinos listening, watch out! Don’t force my hand into it… I have a strong arm for that. Nobody likes it. But if you won’t get vaccinated, leave the Philippines. Go to India or somewhere – to America. But as long as you are here and you are a human being that can carry the virus, get yourself vaccinated!”

 

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2021/06/24/2107666/allow-time-lag-after-duterte-outburst

 

Just to try to keep things in perspective, a bit...  ????

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

That tends to be how it works here!  I for one, like to read contrary views as I am openminded about what it all means and what should be done.  But the 'doom & gloom' crowd are the majority here.  Nice try!

Name calling tends to bring out the worst in people and you would get far better responses if you stuck with the known science. The "doom and gloom" crowd as you call them just happen to be by far the majority of all health experts in Thailand and Internationally. We are following the science, what are you following?

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Yep. I agree with most but I think lockdowns are essential, however, please allow me to borrow something. I have underlined it. Expert advice in Australia said you do not need masks when the evidence was showing you do. Australia now: You must wear masks but this is only when they are doing lockdowns or there are some cases. Of course this is not just Aus. The benefits of mask wearing was clear from the beginning. The idiots in charge, the idiot medical advisors and I must include many on here said mask wearing is not necessary.  4,000,000 dead so far because of outright stupidity and it continues. Anyway just interesting how these highly paid so-called experts can do a complete 180 like nothing happened. 

p.s. I still think it's a weaponized virus. Something I said in the very early days of this.

I saw today on the ABC they did a little blurb on wether masks work they showed the different types and how to wear them and take them off then they showed a digital representation of and experiment with rats in two separated compartments one with a surgical mask and one without a surgical mask the they had infected rats in one side and virus free rats on the other,they said 30% infection was counted on the rats without the mask and 25% infection with the mask.The rats had less severe infections with the mask in place.They didn't say if there was any airflow simulating breathing they didn't show the actual set up yet they concluded that masks were effective based on the results.As I have found with my real life smoke cloud test the air one breathes out just exits the mask around the edges So in the rat trial without airflow 25% of the rats got infected so for me the efficacy of masks is still up for debate.The air we breath has to go out and come back in one way or another otherwise we would suffocate.The question is how much virus is in the air.Surely it would be simple enough to capture so of the air on a swab and do a PCR test on it to see if they get a positive or negative result.Either they are to stupid to do this or they have done it and didn't like what they saw, because if that sort of test was negative I would be waving it around for all to see.   

Edited June 30, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[impulse]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Kalasin: 5 yesterday 27 today. Today all schools closed. The missus blames Prayut. So do I.

THAT is certainly a rising trajectory.

 

But is that rise because of more cases, or just more testing?  Did the Kalasin area increase testing when they found some more beds, or more test kits?

[impulse]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand had more double the number COVID deaths reported in the past 24 hours than the UK, with a similar size population, even though the UK had about four times as many new cases. That's the tale of vaccinations (in the UK) or the lack of them (in Thailand):

 

The number that's missing is how many were tested in the UK and Thailand, which would yield the percentage of people testing positive.  Thailand's true infection number could be an order of magnitude higher if they didn't stop testing in areas where they're running out of beds.  Or maybe not, but when hospitals announce they're stopping tests because they don't have bed space for the positives, that's the equivalent of sticking their heads in the sand. 

 

The difference in death rate may also be tied to the availability of quality care in the respective countries, as well as vaccination rates.

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

That tends to be how it works here!  I for one, like to read contrary views as I am openminded about what it all means and what should be done.  But the 'doom & gloom' crowd are the majority here.  Nice try!

Doom and gloom crowd to some, realistic assessors of facts to others.

 

it’s all about perception.

[brewsterbudgen]

32 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Name calling tends to bring out the worst in people and you would get far better responses if you stuck with the known science. The "doom and gloom" crowd as you call them just happen to be by far the majority of all health experts in Thailand and Internationally. We are following the science, what are you following?

I'm following the posts on this Forum, which I think is just about people's opinions and not scientific facts.  I started as an ill-informed "lockdown-denier" and partly changed my opinion based on many well argued, logical posts on this Forum.  I'd say now, I'm still a partial lockdown-sceptic, and I think much of what The Cipher has posted (I think he's new) makes a lot of sense.  The name-calling (which thankfully is fairly minimal, although I've had a few aimed at me) is on both sides, with "Covid-denier" being one of the most common epithets bandied around rather liberally!