10,000 cases per day by year’s end not out of the question, senior doctor says

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

A hit of less than 1/50 of pop in order to resume normal life immediately? It's not unattractive, honestly.

So using the world population of 7.8 Billion your okay with 39 million deaths.  So nice to know life is cheap for you. Gotta love bean counters and those whose life resolves around actuarial figures and only look at things in terms of numbers instead of human lives.  Sounds as if your ok with Thai's paying others a small sum when they commit murder or have an accident instead of them going to jail or prison.  Very nice.....Not.  

[Bluespunk]

1 hour ago, teacherofwoe said:

I didn't suggest that cases would stay at 10,000 per day but at that rate it would take 19 years. Obviously, they will test more and more people daily so the case numbers can go up. If there is no testing done today, how many cases will there be today? Zero.

Then again let me point out to you, that it will not take 19 years to infect the whole population if nothing is done because the cases will not remain at 10,000 the day but will continue to rise if there is nothing done to prevent further spread.

 

If  there is no testing done there will be no cases recorded however there will still be plenty of cases out there. 

 

 

[The Cipher]

I have made a mistake opening this can of worms. But here goes nothing...

 

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So using the world population of 7.8 Billion your okay with 39 million deaths.  So nice to know life is cheap for you. Gotta love bean counters and those whose life resolves around actuarial figures and only look at things in terms of numbers instead of human lives.

 

Sit down before reading this, but I'm ok with an annual hit of 1% of beginning pop (~70M). It'd be interim until vaccines arrive and, based on projected population growth rates, we'd actually see net population growth even under that worse-than-the-worst-case scenario.

 

Knock-on benefits of taking the hit? (1) No massive increase in systemic financial leverage; (2) Eases demographic pressures on aging countries (which is a major benefit for Thailand specifically, as one of the rare poor-but-aging countries); (3) Helps intergenerational wealth redistribution, which takes some pressure off the major issues that wealth inequality is causing in our society; (4) Lower pop and/or slower pop growth help in the - much more important - fight against climate change.

 

I'm of the opinion that the four points above are each more significant than Covid, but because the effects are more subtle and may come in the future, Joe Average finds them less compelling than the daily blast of case counts. Add in the emotional fear response to Covid news (as Jacko pointed out above), and it's not hard to see why no politician is going to stand up and tell a frightened population that they are going to take Covid in stride.

 

Ok that's enough for now lol. Back to the Finals ????

[ThailandRyan]

16 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

I have made a mistake opening this can of worms. But here goes nothing...

 

 

Sit down before reading this, but I'm ok with an annual hit of 1% of beginning pop (~70M). It'd be interim until vaccines arrive and, based on projected population growth rates, we'd actually see net population growth even under that worse-than-the-worst-case scenario.

 

Knock-on benefits of taking the hit? (1) No massive increase in systemic financial leverage; (2) Eases demographic pressures on aging countries (which is a major benefit for Thailand specifically, as one of the rare poor-but-aging countries); (3) Helps intergenerational wealth redistribution, which takes some pressure off the major issues that wealth inequality is causing in our society; (4) Lower pop and/or slower pop growth help in the - much more important - fight against climate change.

 

I'm of the opinion that the four points above are each more significant than Covid, but because the effects are more subtle and may come in the future, Joe Average finds them less compelling than the daily blast of case counts. Add in the emotional fear response to Covid news (as Jacko pointed out above), and it's not hard to see why no politician is going to stand up and tell a frightened population that they are going to take Covid in stride.

 

Ok that's enough for now lol. Back to the Finals ????

To some extent you make a valid point, but the reality of this is that hospitals and medical staff can not continue at the pace they are taking bodies in for treatment and this in itself creates the other issue of a monetary equation, one for treatment, and the other to pay those working, as well as funding future medical costs for those with what is being termed as long covid.  Sure the population will rebound, but the loss of human life from not only Covid itself but from those that could not receive the necessary treatment for other medical issues is a major concern.  I will agree to disagree with you, enjoy your day, and fear is not what drives my views but the reality of what the situation we are facing and which is occurring now is unprecedented in the past 100 years.  Yes history repeats itself, just like the wearing of corduroy pants and bell bottom jeans.

[phetphet]

On 7/5/2021 at 10:03 AM, internationalism said:

how well health service is prepared for that many patients

And therein lies the scary part. The health system is already struggling. If the gov't can at least speed up getting  vaccinations in people's arms, it will reduce the severity of infections and hopefully the load on the hospitals.

 

Places like India and Indonesia don't even have enough oxygen to treat patients. We don't need to see that here.

[ukrules]

On 7/6/2021 at 7:59 AM, DUNROAMIN said:

If they tested 24/7 I think already well past 10,000. We will never know real numbers.

I remember from the first half of last year when the UK said they were finding many 1000's of cases each day and doing a lot of tests but still only ramping up the eventual massive testing infrastructure that came into use.

The message communicated said that even though they are finding 1000's of cases every day they know for sure that those 1000's of cases represented only between 5% and 10% of the total number of infections.

 

So lets take 6000 per day and assume the worst, that this 6000 is only 5% of the real number of infected, when we divide and multiply that out it gives us a daily infection rate of 120,000 cases.

 

Taking the better detection rate of 10% would give us a real case number of 60,000 per day.

 

Going even further - if they were to somehow detect 20% of all cases in the country then the real number would be 30,000

 

I have no idea what the actual case detection rate as a percentage of real cases is (neither does anyone - so all anyone can do, including the Thai scientists is speculate) but the real figures are far in excess of 10,000 per day right now and probably have been for many months.

 

[Jim Morrison]

Thailand should do like Singapore just announced. they will only count deaths and not cases.

So instead of saying 6,000 "new cases" and 20 people died. Just accept everybody will get it and some will die. Take your vitamins and get on with your life..Can you imagine if Thailand reported every motorbike accident "cases" 50 people killed every day in Thailand on the road is just another day..

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Jim Morrison said:

Thailand should do like Singapore just announced. they will only count deaths and not cases.

So instead of saying 6,000 "new cases" and 20 people died. Just accept everybody will get it and some will die. Take your vitamins and get on with your life..Can you imagine if Thailand reported every motorbike accident "cases" 50 people killed every day in Thailand on the road is just another day..

61% of Singaporeans have received at least 1 vaccination about about 40% are fully vaccinated. As for what Singapore reports has no bearing on the rules they enforce. And you may believe that road accidents are contagious and can rise exponentially, but that would definitely be a minority opinion.

[mick220675]

On 7/5/2021 at 7:14 PM, Thunglom said:

just for a bit of perspective, the UK is at about 25,000 per day. With high (50%) vaccination nd they are controversially ending all restrictions on 19th July. I wonder if relatively unvaccinated Thailand will want Brits to come in when their home country is so highly infected.

 

70% of infections in BKK are now Delta variant........ this is 60% more contagious than the alpha variant. It could spread like wildfire. Only a coupe of weeks ago people on Samui were claiming 4000 was the peak. This sort of complacency is very alarming.

Don't forget the UK is currently testing a million people every day.

[Thunglom]

24 minutes ago, mick220675 said:

Don't forget the UK is currently testing a million people every day.

Testing? What do you think that'll do?

[metisdead]

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