Thailand among emerging economies most vulnerable to Delta variant – JPMorgan analysis

[webfact]

FILE PHOTO: A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Economies of Thailand, Philippines, Peru, Colombia and South Africa are among the most vulnerable to the COVID-19 Delta variant within emerging markets, mostly due to low vaccination rates, a JPMorgan analysis found on Thursday.

 

The analysis looks at spread of the virus' Delta variant versus the pace of vaccination, which in some countries is not accelerating enough to offset higher rates of transmission.

 

Even if the Delta variant is shown to result in lower hospitalization and death rates, the report said, pressure on healthcare systems and a higher absolute number of deaths could occur, likely raising pressure on some governments to extend or re-impose mobility restrictions.

 

A separate note from Oxford Economics showed strong economic activity rebounds in Latin America on the back of gains in mobility.

 

(Graphic: Journey to the new normal, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/ygdvzzandvw/2021-07-08_12h39_39.png)

 

 

The JPMorgan analysis said vaccination thresholds for getting mobility back to normal vary by country, so the results are best taken as relative performance from country to country.

 

"The model estimates suggest that the Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, and Colombia face the longest journeys back to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, while Singapore, Turkey, India and Brazil have the shortest journeys."

 

In Latin America, authorities have been less likely to re-impose or lengthen mobility restrictions, the report said.

 

"While the region has shown surprising resilience in the face of the virus and other headwinds, downside risks to growth could still manifest through the impact of worsening public health on confidence even if the uptrend in mobility remains in place."

 

(Reporting by Rodrigo Camposl Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-07-09

 

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[NCC1701A]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

"The model estimates suggest that the Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, and Colombia face the longest journeys back to pre-pandemic levels of mobility,

when the J.P. Morgan banksters take notice that means they are getting ready to carve the place up. 

let's see were the exchange rate is 6 months from now. 

and real estate prices. 

 

Thailand's Mafia state is no match for J.P. Morgan. 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

The stark reality is that even if there is a short complete lockdown (which Thailand as a developing nation can't afford) it will only slow transmission until the inevitable reopening, and it only works in tandem with an effective and rapid vaccination strategy (Thailand's is a well documented shambles). The Uk has been locked down for months, is approaching herd immunity, and still has 20,000 cases per day! See Israel too (with Pfizer). Thailand has no choice other than to live with it. Partial lockdowns will achieve nothing, and a months long total lockdown would destroy the country.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Economies of Thailand, Philippines, Peru, Colombia and South Africa are among the most vulnerable to the COVID-19 Delta variant within emerging markets, mostly due to low vaccination rates, a JPMorgan analysis found on Thursday.

Prayut won't like that one bit.. 

[chalawaan]

Covid nearly toppled the markets during the initial panic,

 

I am heavily invested in a bear ETF now in anticipation of future variants creating a cycle of global chaos, and luminaries such as Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry have been warning since January that the everything bubble is now the largest in human history.

 

For the well-positioned "fearful" it will soon finally be time to get "greedy".

 

Also, thank you, Mr. Buffet, your advice has never failed -no matter how much the bubble bulls bellow, they always end up as bear-steak.

 

Very interestingly, significant billionaires have already piled into emerging markets. 

 

China's Ali Baba ticker: BABA has seen a lot of smart US money this year already. 

 

Tempting as that play is, I can't risk Xi doing something stupid again, they can, with billions of discretionary dollars to punt.

[LazySlipper]

Since when is Thailand an emerging economy?

 

The same was said about China (emerging economy) a few years back... China is dispensed of controlling their emissions and watching their pollution of our planet...

 

Is China still considered an emerging economy considering that they own more greenback in their reserves than any other nation in the world except maybe the US itself?

Edited July 9, 2021 by LazySlipper

[Justgrazing]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

while Singapore, Turkey, India and Brazil have the shortest journeys."

They'll be delighted then they got the shortest route back to Brazilians of dollars .. 

 

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, and Colombia face the longest journeys back to pre-pandemic levels

Coffee , Coke , Safari's , Somtam and tarts are not saviours on the big road to post apocalypse Nirvana then .. 

[chalawaan]

5 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

The stark reality is that even if there is a short complete lockdown (which Thailand as a developing nation can't afford) it will only slow transmission until the inevitable reopening, and it only works in tandem with an effective and rapid vaccination strategy (Thailand's is a well documented shambles). The Uk has been locked down for months, is approaching herd immunity, and still has 20,000 cases per day! See Israel too (with Pfizer). Thailand has no choice other than to live with it. Partial lockdowns will achieve nothing, and a months long total lockdown would destroy the country.

I don't disagree with anything you have said, but OTOH how will they realistically "live with it" and not destroy the economy anyway? 

 

If any nation realistically could live with it, they would.

 

It is just not an option, when the healthcare system collapses, it's basically a war zone without the shooting. 

 

Vaccinated tourists will not come if they are treated like the dozen who flew into Phuket with the infected person, and that in itself shows just how useless and off-putting the ridiculous hoop-jumping paper-chasing non-sense travel to this benighted nation has become.

 

[chalawaan]

26 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

They'll be delighted then they got the shortest route back to Brazilians of dollars .. 

 

Coffee , Coke , Safari's , Somtam and tarts are not saviours on the big road to post apocalypse Nirvana then .. 

Yes, it is telling that these countries all share either extremely corrupt or authoritarian governments, some have both, and the least fortunate have off the scale crime levels even before the pandemic. Namely: South Africa, Brazil, Philippines, and Colombia.

Unfortunately, I expect relatively safe Thailand to succumb to similar levels of crime as the disillusionment and desperation become permanent. As much as most decent folks would wish for it, the elites and their cosy corrupt army security blanket are going nowhere any time soon.

[Srikcir]

Just curious.

There's Alpha, Beta and Delta variants - 1st, 2nd and 4th letters in the Greek alphabet.

But what happened to Gamma, 3rd letter?

[chalawaan]

1 hour ago, LazySlipper said:

Since when is Thailand an emerging economy?

 

The same was said about China (emerging economy) a few years back... China is dispensed of controlling their emissions and watching their pollution of our planet...

 

Is China still considered an emerging economy considering that they own more greenback in their reserves than any other nation in the world except maybe the US itself?

Yes. Because when China achieves parity with developed economies it will become one.

China talks a good game, and indeed, its transformation in parts is stunning and impressive.

Until recently 2018 I visited China frequently and can confirm that the boondocks are in many cases much less developed than many in South East Asia. Thailand has some of the world's cleanest, safest, and organized slums. And I'm not being facetious, it's largely the gracious "accept your lot" nature of Thai culture and religion that allows for this.

China's slums and backwater towns are medieval by comparison. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by chalawaan

[chalawaan]

13 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Just curious.

There's Alpha, Beta and Delta variants - 1st, 2nd and 4th letters in the Greek alphabet.

But what happened to Gamma, 3rd letter?

its probably a really rude word in some language somewhere they have a lot of covid, but that's just an entertaining and wild Friday afternoon guess.

[wprime]

6 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

The stark reality is that even if there is a short complete lockdown (which Thailand as a developing nation can't afford) it will only slow transmission until the inevitable reopening, and it only works in tandem with an effective and rapid vaccination strategy (Thailand's is a well documented shambles). The Uk has been locked down for months, is approaching herd immunity, and still has 20,000 cases per day! See Israel too (with Pfizer). Thailand has no choice other than to live with it. Partial lockdowns will achieve nothing, and a months long total lockdown would destroy the country.

Lockdowns are only economically justifiable if you can eliminate the virus. That's no longer possible for Thailand unless neighbouring countries eliminate it which is not going to happen.

 

Partial lockdowns do have the humanitarian benefit of slowing the demand on hospitals allowing more people to be treated saving lives. The economic damage would probably cost more lives in the long run though.

[spidermike007]

Delta or not, the economy here is in the toilet. Nobody knows exactly how much exports have dropped. I have heard official figures which claim it is up 13%. Total lies. Up over what? Last year? 

 

And unofficial figures which state exports are down by nearly 80%.

 

The hurt will be felt for many years to come. Possibly worse than 1997. We are witnessing official sabotage and mass destruction of the economy and the tourism industry. 

 

The public is angry. All credibility is lost. A reckoning is coming. Just wait. 

[inThailand]

The GDP back to pre pandemic date looks very optimistic for LOS. Add a year or more if they get a real vaccine in people's arms soon?

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Just curious.

There's Alpha, Beta and Delta variants - 1st, 2nd and 4th letters in the Greek alphabet.

But what happened to Gamma, 3rd letter?

Brazil variant is Gamma....designated Jan 2021

[Sticky Rice Balls]

21 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

The stark reality is that even if there is a short complete lockdown (which Thailand as a developing nation can't afford) it will only slow transmission until the inevitable reopening, and it only works in tandem with an effective and rapid vaccination strategy (Thailand's is a well documented shambles). The Uk has been locked down for months, is approaching herd immunity, and still has 20,000 cases per day! See Israel too (with Pfizer). Thailand has no choice other than to live with it. Partial lockdowns will achieve nothing, and a months long total lockdown would destroy the country.

(squints)

[Sticky Rice Balls]

23 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

when the J.P. Morgan banksters take notice that means they are getting ready to carve the place up. 

let's see were the exchange rate is 6 months from now. 

and real estate prices. 

 

Thailand's Mafia state is no match for J.P. Morgan. 

My lawyer agreed....When EF Hutton speaks..people listen... JP Morgan from the gong show?

555

[Sticky Rice Balls]

Is the teflon baht starting to show cracks--pain is a motivator no matter who you are.....