Phuket ‘Third Wave’ COVID infections breach 1,000

[Espanol]

2 hours ago, bermondburi said:

It's still better than ASQ.

 

Yes, actually that's the only reason to go to Phuket now: avoiding ASQ confinement in Bangkok.

 

Indeed lying on a beach in Phuket, walking to seaside restaurant for lunch and having a rest at the swimming pool is much better than been jailed in an expensive hotel room in Bangkok. 

And also cheaper. 

 

But only if you really must go to Thailand.

 

But going to Phuket in holidays as a real tourist nowadays is a completely stupid idea. 

 

 

[Deli]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Yes, you are correct, in that situation my personal greed would likely come first.

 

It's not the sandbox tourists that I have a problem with, it's the governments approach to dealing with the 'infected', especially those who are vaccinated.

 

A positive PCR swab in someone who's been double vaccinated will almost certainly contain very little but dead virus that's been destroyed by the vaccine produced immune reaction. Of course the only way to know if it's dead virus or viable virus is to run a series of lengthy and expensive supervised lab experiments so that's never done. Covid camp is where these people are headed, vaccine or not.

 

Aren't you paranoid ? Live with it or stay under a rock.

[oldcpu]

35 minutes ago, david555 said:

I would expect many from local Thailand would try to come work to Phuket , just as many came working for high season in pre covid times , money high needed....

That could become difficult for anyone coming to Phuket from inside Thailand given some 'hot off the press' news - where I am not sure the news is correct. Further this 'hot off the press' news could also affect any International travelers who are thinking to leave Phuket for mainland Thailand and return.  

 

However international travelers are allowed to fly in/out of Phuket (ie Sandbox is still open to International Travelers - but closed to non-essential local travelers).

 

I assume not fake news - but honestly I do not know.

 

According to the below, the Thai government is either considering, or has decided, to close Phuket's borders to people already in Thailand, to come to Phuket (if not essential).

 

I read this here: https://www.thainewsreports.com/

(and see screen capture below).  This entire situation is so dynamic, it is very difficult to stay on top.   .... I suspect we won't be able to verify this as being correct until tomorrow ????  So take this with lots of grains of salt (as I like to verify things before I post, and I have failed to verify this).

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by oldcpu

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

problem is that phuket is getting shut down.

yesterday they closed central shopping centre.

three days ago they stopped the music on the beach.

more and more places are closing down.

feels like a spat in the face.

after alll the hastle, COE, insyrance, 8000 baht tests, pre-booking, flight and  quarantine - we find ourselves in a shut down island that feels like a ghost town or

the beginning of  a horror movie.

last night i had a nightmare. i was walking on parong beach when  a huge tzunami wave came

and washed me all the way back to the beach. but there was nobody there besides me

and the sad waitress in the only open cafe where i drink my coffee every afternoon.

[oldcpu]

1 hour ago, oldcpu said:

That could become difficult for anyone coming to Phuket from inside Thailand given some 'hot off the press' news

 

...  the Thai government is either considering, or has decided, to close Phuket's borders to people already in Thailand, to come to Phuket (if not essential).

I believe this is the case and not fake news.  Phuket borders are to be closed for incoming traffic to Phuket.  Only international flights in/out, and only emergency other local transport allowed in.  Details are in Phuket Provincial Order No. 4203/2564 dated 29 July 2021 (only in Thai language thus far).

 

At least this is my understanding.

 

I could post an English language (google) translation of the Order - but it will be in the news tomorrow - and I am logging off the forum and going to bed.

Edited July 29, 2021 by oldcpu

[impulse]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

3 hours ago, impulse said:

Pretty sure you'd feel differently if your livelihood depended on opening up Thailand to tourists.  If your income and future came to a dead stop until tourism returns.  Because that's the situation that millions of Thai people find themselves in.

Yes, you are correct, in that situation my personal greed would likely come first.

You call it greed.  Millions of Thai people call it hunger and despair.  The ones that will queue up for hours to get rice with a fried egg, worth about 30 baht.

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by impulse

[Albert Zweistein]

9 hours ago, oldcpu said:

Sadly in life - many things are advertised that do not turn out to be what was hoped for.  There is a global pandemic raging - every international traveler should be aware of the risks.

 

The international travelers can decide on their volition as to how safe Phuket may be. If they decide not to come - so be it.  They can decide.  There is no need for the Thai government to decide for them.

 

Again - why close the Sandbox if in the most part the virus has returned not from the International travelers, but from locals residents in Thailand who brought the pandemic back to Phuket ??

Perhaps to protect them from getting infected and locked up in quarantine and spoiled their expensive vacation ? Besides it will destroy the Thai reputation.

[Boedog]

Grandmaster Prayut says if you close the sandbox we not get our brown envelopes what happens in the Sandbox stays in the Sandbox everything is ok, we have 18,000 cases a day around Thailand and who knows how high daily numbers will go but lucky for me the Sanbox is safe and other Sandboxes to follow and my re-opening plan still on schedule because just imagine how stupid l would look if this failed , l would probably lose my job haha

[DrDave]

Resort destinations such as Cancun, Cozumel, the Dominican Republic and others have been successful in opening to international tourism for quite some time now, without any of this "sandbox" nonsense. Maybe the boys in Bangkok need to pop their heads up and see how it's done elsewhere.

[CANSIAM]

What is problematic is that reading 7 sandbox have tested positive on the day 6 hotel test and 2 sandbox on the day 13 hotel test. So they are out and about for days and a week or more infectious. Obviously catching positives on arrival is a better scenario. Sandbox is a high risk scheme no doubt ! 

[steven100]

An interesting story of an American who recently went to Phuket ....

I Was One of the First Vaccinated Americans to Visit Thailand in More Than a Year — Here's What It Was Like ....

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/one-first-vaccinated-americans-visit-194933827.html

 

 

[steven100]

54 minutes ago, DrDave said:

Resort destinations such as Cancun, Cozumel, the Dominican Republic and others have been successful in opening to international tourism for quite some time now, without any of this "sandbox" nonsense. Maybe the boys in Bangkok need to pop their heads up and see how it's done elsewhere.

so Cancun, Cozumel and Dominican Republic don't have any covid at all.     lol

 

fascinating how it just disappeared ......         or maybe it's just bs i suspect.   

[DaveC]

The problem is the Sarasin bridge entry. At best there is still only random checking of all occupants of incoming vehicles.

 

On Saturday they were obsessed with checking all expats departing the island for Sandbox escapees and only Thai nationals for entry onto the island.

 

Don't be confused by the vaccination rate. They are now quoting percentages of their target. So 70% of their 70% target fully vaccinated is still only 49%, nowhere near herd immunity.  Also 90 cases per week was deemed as the upper limit for infections - currently running at 160 per week.

 

Phuket needs the international business. I fully support closing the bridge for all non essential arrivals but also reopening all commercial venues and allowing all international tourist enjoy all facilities.

Edited July 29, 2021 by DaveC

[DaveC]

This is my proposal for the bridge.

 

A large (14M * 7m) luminous sign placed on the island just over the bridge clearly stating that unless ALL occupants (except under 6 years old) meet the conditions, the vehicle will be REFUSED entry onto the island. Replaceable panels clearly stating the conditions in THAI and ENGLISH (not jinglish) .

 

Each checking officer being equipped with a check sheet for each occupant of the vehicle (registration recorded). That officer's signature of compliance on each check sheet. A CLEAR UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THEY SHOULD BE CHECKING. An video camera capable of recoding time and registration plate and these recordings being audited with the check sheets by a non government third party.

 

The reality is that Sinovac affords limited protection against the Delta strain and most Phuketians are vaccinated with Sinovac. This is no longer a half hearted issue and Phuket is entirely dependent on Tourism.

 

The problem is that the requirements are not being enforced at the bridge.

Edited July 30, 2021 by DaveC

[oldcpu]

3 hours ago, CANSIAM said:

What is problematic is that reading 7 sandbox have tested positive on the day 6 hotel test and 2 sandbox on the day 13 hotel test. So they are out and about for days and a week or more infectious. Obviously catching positives on arrival is a better scenario. Sandbox is a high risk scheme no doubt ! 

Given they were tested before departure - NEGATIVE.  They were tested on arrival - NEGATIVE.  It suggests that they caught the virus in Phuket.  They didn't bring it. 

 

Further, according to Department of Disease Control (DDC) director-general Kajornsak Kaewjaras stated " the province has succeeded in tracking down all infected visitors and preventing transmissions from spreading to communities" ... and further noted " a total of 148 cases were reported in Phuket over the past week. All were brought in from other provinces. Some are Phuket residents who worked in other at-risk provinces and returned to the province to seek medical treatment."

 

ie. it is the locals who brought the virus to Phuket.

 

My reference (and I have other references) : https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2156823/phuket-governor-orders-entire-island-sealed-off

 

Where is your reference for saying the virus was spread in Phuket from the tourists ?  Where is your reference to contact tracing that shows the foreigners brought the virus? 

 

According to the contact tracing that was done,  the subsequent cases in Phuket all originated domestically.

 

I have spent years in Thailand, and if it were possible to blame something on foreigners, I think the local Thai government would do so if it were the case.

 

Its not the case.  The international travelers to Phuket (most of whom are foreigners) are not to blame.

 

All subsequent checks and contract tracing point to the virus cases in Phuket originating from domestic transmissions.

Edited July 30, 2021 by oldcpu

[CANSIAM]

2 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Given they were tested before departure - NEGATIVE.  They were tested on arrival - NEGATIVE.  It suggests that they caught the virus in Phuket.  They didn't bring it. 

 

Further, according to Department of Disease Control (DDC) director-general Kajornsak Kaewjaras stated " the province has succeeded in tracking down all infected visitors and preventing transmissions from spreading to communities" ... and further noted " a total of 148 cases were reported in Phuket over the past week. All were brought in from other provinces. Some are Phuket residents who worked in other at-risk provinces and returned to the province to seek medical treatment."

 

ie. it is the locals who brought the virus to Phuket.

 

My reference (and I have other references) : https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2156823/phuket-governor-orders-entire-island-sealed-off

 

Where is your reference for saying the virus was spread in Phuket from the tourists ?  Where is your reference to contact tracing that shows the foreigners brought the virus? 

 

I have spent years in Thailand, and if it were possible to blame something on foreigners, I think the local Thai government would do so if it were the case.

 

Its not the case.  The international travelers to Phuket (most of whom are foreigners) are not to blame.

 

All subsequent checks and contract tracing point to the virus cases in Phuket originating from domestic transmissions.

I'm aware most cases are local, sandbox is not bullet proof either..... hope its successful, people are hungry !

[oldcpu]

2 hours ago, DaveC said:

Don't be confused by the vaccination rate. They are now quoting percentages of their target. So 70% of their 70% target fully vaccinated is still only 49%, nowhere near herd immunity.

49% from 70% of 70% ??? Where is your reference for 70% of 70% ?  

 

Yes, in Phuket 69% are fully vaccinated, and 88% vaccinated with one jab.    But that's not 70% of 70%.

 

Don't forget, the population of Phuket today is some fraction of what it was 2 years ago.  In June/July last year, there was a mass exodus of locals leaving Phuket, due to the devastated Phuket economy.  Estimates were as high as 15% leaving. Some said higher % left.  Further, there has been a steady trickle leaving Phuket since.

 

Do you live in Phuket?  Do you have contrary experience?  If so I would be curious to read of such.  I do live in Phuket and I have seen this steady trickle of people leaving from shops closed and when my wife talked to the neighbours - it was the same story. No business. Close shop. Go home up north.  

 

I venture no one knows the real population of Phuket at present, but the government estimates of 470,000 could very well be pretty close.  Certainly my view is not this 70% (??) figure ... where you used 70% of 70%.

 

Now wrt herd immunity - IMHO it is NOT going to happen in Thailand.  Nor is it going to happen in most countries in the world.  One needs vaccines with efficacies as high, if not higher than Pfizer against the alpha variant to achieve such ... and Pfizer against the delta variant does not IMHO have sufficient efficacy to achieve herd immunity. Given that it won't likely happen for Pfizer, will it ever happen with AstraZeneca or Sinovac?  IMHO it won't.  Herd immunity talk is something all politicians in every country around the world like to talk about - but I don't believe it will happen.   Sadly we need to learn to live with that fact.

Edited July 30, 2021 by oldcpu

[oldcpu]

7 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Perhaps to protect them from getting infected and locked up in quarantine and spoiled their expensive vacation ? Besides it will destroy the Thai reputation.

Many other resorts world wide have opened to tourists despite the virus raging in their resorts.  I have not read of one whose reputation was "destroyed".  So why should Phuket's be destroyed?

 

Despite Phuket having 50 new virus cases today, on a per capita basis,  Phuket is still one of the Thailand provinces with the least # of cases on a per capita basis. ... and I would agree (I think) that is somewhat sad to read.

 

Having typed that, I believe there are far more undetected cases in Phuket. There is NOT enough testing going on. The International Travelers are tested 4 to 5 times PER PERSON with tests associated with the Sandbox.  But the local Phuket residents?  Until recently there were about 200 tests per day in July (not counting tests of International Travellers).  I saw one day with 500 tests in July and the rest of the days 200 or so (I don't know the # of tests the past few days).   But 200 tests per day FOR THE ENTIRE population, with a population > 470,000 people is basically almost NO tests.   Rather it is very limited targeted "AFTER THE FACT" tests based on contact tracing.  There could be unknown hidden clusters of cases in Phuket festering, and more testing is desperately needed to obtain a better assessment of the pandemic spread, so to give the government better information to support good decision making.

 

To me it only makes sense, in a 'sandbox' (ie a 'test environment') to obtain as much information as possible as to how the 'test environment' is going.  And to get that better information, more testing of the local population is needed.  All IMHO of course.

Edited July 30, 2021 by oldcpu

[DaveC]

"Yes, in Phuket 69% are fully vaccinated, and 88% vaccinated with one jab.    But that's not 70% of 70%."

 

Oldcpu - It appears you have fallen right into the trap that I was talking about. This is the reference for the latest figures - 

https://web.facebook.com/83ssj/posts/4350111255050866?_rdc=1&_rdr

 

318,046 of the TARGET 466,587 = 68%. The target is 70% so 68% * 70% = 47.6%. The target is not the total population as you infer.

 

I added a little because obviously there were a few (not many in the last 2 weeks)

 

Yes I am a long time resident of Phuket and I am not a doctor but it was openly discussed that 70% of the population was the target.

 

[oldcpu]

1 hour ago, DaveC said:

Oldcpu - It appears you have fallen right into the trap that I was talking about. This is the reference for the latest figures - 

https://web.facebook.com/83ssj/posts/4350111255050866?_rdc=1&_rdr

 

318,046 of the TARGET 466,587 = 68%. The target is 70% so 68% * 70% = 47.6%. The target is not the total population as you infer.

Hi DaveC.  Yes - I look at those charts and I look at others every day.

 

That chart does NOT show that the Target of 466,687 is 70% of the Phuket population.  Rather my understanding is the 466,687 is the estimated population eligible to be vaccinated - and further even that 466,687 could be an over statement.  For certain 466,687 did NOT register for vaccination in Phuket - the numbers who registered are far less.

 

Where is your reference that 70% of Phuket population equals 466,687 ??

 

I repeat, I don't think anyone knows the actual population of Phuket at present. For certain there are hardly any tourists present (10,000 international travelers arriving in Phuket is a drop in the bucket compared to the past). And likely over 15% of the locals left Phuket in June/July last year alone, and a steady trickle of locals continued to leave Phuket after that.

 

I seriously doubt Phuket has 466,587 divided by 0.70 = 666,553 people - but if you have a reference to show that is the actual number of locals in Phuket at present time, I would be most interested to read that.

 

As a long time resident of Phuket, you surely must know of the massive exodus of people who left the island.  One only has to drive down the streets (almost anywhere in Phuket) or walk in the typically crowded tourist areas of Phuket, to see - there are no tourists and less locals.

 

I do not for one second believe there are 666,000 people in Phuket.   Do you really believe that # of people in Phuket, based on what you have seen the past year, compared to pre-COVID years, as a long time resident to Phuket?

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by oldcpu

[DaveC]

Quote: "Hi DaveC.  Yes - I look at those charts and I look at others every day.

 

That chart does NOT show that the Target of 466,687 is 70% of the Phuket population.  Rather my understanding is the 466,687 is the estimated population eligible to be vaccinated - and further even that 466,687 could be an over statement.  For certain 466,687 did NOT register for vaccination in Phuket - the numbers who registered are far less.

 

Where is your reference that 70% of Phuket population equals 466,687 ??"

 

Reply

"

Phuket has vaccinated 50% of the provincial population out of its target of 70% of people on the resort island.

Narong Woonciew, Phuket governor, thanked local dwellers for their cooperation in helping the province get this far.

According to the Phuket sandbox plan to reopen tourism, the province needs to vaccinate at least 466,587 people, or 70% of the provincial population, equivalent to 933,174 doses. The resort island is set to reopen for foreign tourists from July 1."

 

Phuket closes on jab target (bangkokpost.com)

 

 

[oldcpu]

14 minutes ago, DaveC said:

Phuket has vaccinated 50% of the provincial population out of its target of 70% of people on the resort island.

Narong Woonciew, Phuket governor, thanked local dwellers for their cooperation in helping the province get this far.

According to the Phuket sandbox plan to reopen tourism, the province needs to vaccinate at least 466,587 people, or 70% of the provincial population, equivalent to 933,174 doses. The resort island is set to reopen for foreign tourists from July 1."

 

Phuket closes on jab target (bangkokpost.com)

 

 

Hi DaveC

 

Thanks for the reference, which I note supports your view.

 

Honestly  - I don't believe the numbers reflecting the population which are used are correct.

 

According to a wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phuket_Province) on Phuket the population in 2019 was 419,582 people.  Further the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Thailand]Another wiki says the same lower number. 

 

Further, here are estimates on Phuket's population:  https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/phuket-population

 

None of them are 666,000.

 

I don't believe the population increased from 419,582 to 666,000 during a global pandemic when likely greater than 15% of the locals left the province, nor based on what I have seen with my own eyes.

 

I acknowledge your reference, but based on my own research, I have to say that Bangkok Post article likely misquoted the Thai official IMHO.  I believe that the Bangkok Post article was mistaken/incorrect, as the number 666,000 for a Phuket population contradicts all other estimates of the Phuket population.

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by oldcpu

[DaveC]

 

19 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Hi DaveC

 

Thanks for the reference, which I note supports your view.

 

Honestly  - I don't believe the numbers reflecting the population which are used are correct.

I don't know that the population figures you quote include itinerants living on the island. 

 

I do know that the Phuket News has highlighted the figures I mention and I would be very surprised if 446,000 out of 466,000 eligible had already registered.

Edited July 30, 2021 by DaveC

[Albert Zweistein]

15 hours ago, oldcpu said:

Many other resorts world wide have opened to tourists despite the virus raging in their resorts.  I have not read of one whose reputation was "destroyed".  So why should Phuket's be destroyed?

 

Despite Phuket having 50 new virus cases today, on a per capita basis,  Phuket is still one of the Thailand provinces with the least # of cases on a per capita basis. ... and I would agree (I think) that is somewhat sad to read.

 

Having typed that, I believe there are far more undetected cases in Phuket. There is NOT enough testing going on. The International Travelers are tested 4 to 5 times PER PERSON with tests associated with the Sandbox.  But the local Phuket residents?  Until recently there were about 200 tests per day in July (not counting tests of International Travellers).  I saw one day with 500 tests in July and the rest of the days 200 or so (I don't know the # of tests the past few days).   But 200 tests per day FOR THE ENTIRE population, with a population > 470,000 people is basically almost NO tests.   Rather it is very limited targeted "AFTER THE FACT" tests based on contact tracing.  There could be unknown hidden clusters of cases in Phuket festering, and more testing is desperately needed to obtain a better assessment of the pandemic spread, so to give the government better information to support good decision making.

 

To me it only makes sense, in a 'sandbox' (ie a 'test environment') to obtain as much information as possible as to how the 'test environment' is going.  And to get that better information, more testing of the local population is needed.  All IMHO of course.

I would appreciate very much if you could name me the resorts you know where the virus is raging while open to tourist and their locations.

[DaveC]

When Phuket opened on July 1, the infection rate was quite low but lack of adequate control at the bridge meant that the Delta variant has entered the island in a big way with little protection to the majority of locals who were vaccinated with Sinovac.

 

To close the bridge off now to all but essential services is like closing the gate after the horse has bolted, This may cause further damage to the Island's reputation as essentially, it prevents international tourists from re-entering the island after any excursions. Only this week it was announced that they could visit other defined Provinces after 7 days.

[oldcpu]

5 hours ago, DaveC said:

To close the bridge off now to all but essential services is like closing the gate after the horse has bolted, This may cause further damage to the Island's reputation as essentially, it prevents international tourists from re-entering the island after any excursions. Only this week it was announced that they could visit other defined Provinces after 7 days.

I fully agree the checks at the bridge could have been better.  I believe I posted an experience about the bridge crossing sometime back along these lines (if one goes back far enough in the forum posts).

 

I would agree that closing the bridge earlier would have reduced the flow of infected domestic residents to Thailand entering Phuket.  The same would be true for air/boat traffic, although I believe the bridge was likely the main issue. 

 

I don't thou think that means the bridge should not be closed off now to all but essential.  If the bridge is not closed off now, I believe there will be a constant stream of new infections into Phuket, and not matter what measures Phuket would take internally, new cases would be constantly re-introduced, as long as the pandemic rages in Thailand outside of Phuket.   The bridge needs to be closed now IMHO (to all but essential) and Phuket needs to try and sort the pandemic that is rapidly developing internally.

 

For some time I've asked myself why this happened, and I suspect it was because the situation changed quicker than the policies could adapt to.  When the 'sandbox' was designed, after weeks (months ? ) of discussion,  Thailand only had small # of infections per-capita (and also small in absolute terms) relative to the rest of the world.  However by the time the Sandbox was opened, the situation had changed.  Thailand had a full scale pandemic raging and rapidly developing, and the rules that had been thought out and debated to apply to International travelers (for entering Phuket) were inexplicably not applied to non-essential domestic travelers entering Phuket (to adapt to the developing situation).  There was a failure to adapt there.  

Edited July 31, 2021 by oldcpu

[DaveC]

11 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I don't thou think that means the bridge should not be closed off now to all but essential.  If the bridge is not closed off now, I believe there will be a constant stream of new infections into Phuket, and not matter what measures Phuket would take internally, new cases would be constantly re-introduced, as long as the pandemic rages in Thailand outside of Phuket.   The bridge needs to be closed now IMHO (to all but essential) and Phuket needs to try and sort the pandemic that is rapidly developing internally.

 

Yes, you are correct however my concern is that the International initiative may bear the brunt of the consequences when the blame game commences.

 

My personal solution is to ban ALL arrivals by road and sea except for deliveries, medical personnel and sandbox participants (subject to the already published requirements).

 

Attempt to stimulate the economy by allowing FULL resumption of ALL commercial activities. Give the Phuket people some hope instead of trying to kill them with over governance. Eliminate all post arrival harassment of Internationals including SHA+, quarantine and periodic checking after they have cleared Customs.

 

[DaveC]

At this stage, Delta is rampant as in most other places in the world and most governments are reacting accordingly.

 

My own attitude is that this is no longer in the hands of the government unless you are a marxist.

 

 

 

[Stargeezr]

Phuket should stay open, but isolated from mainland Thailand.

  The 2 unvaccinated children who came with their mother, were not

from Thailand. They were tested positive, then their mother tested

positive. Did the poster earlier, forget this little fact?

Geezer

[DaveC]

It is absolutely sad that Phuket Sandbox has failed. 
As an Expat we all hoped that this would kickstart the Phuket economy. For what ever reason this has been made a real meal of !!
Maybe the Governments of this world learn that over governing is not the solution.