Thailand reports record high new COVID-19 cases and deaths - but even more recoveries

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, jacob29 said:

 

There are many variants, we can only extrapolate from the most up to date studies. It's completely infeasible to do comprehensive studies of every vaccine vs every variant. Vague hand waving about being less effective (which I'm sure it is to some extent, as is the case for other vaccines), is not good enough to dismiss earlier studies on efficacy.

Your opinion though not shared by the experts including Professor Ravi Gupta a clinical microbiologist who sits on the UK government’s NERVTAG committee:

 

"Delta variant is the most dangerous variant we have ever seen"

 

"The most dangerous variant with immune evasion capabilities"

 

at 3:40

https://www.channel4.com/news/delta-variant-is-the-most-dangerous-variant-we-have-ever-seen-says-professor-ravi-gupta

[jacob29]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Your opinion though not shared by the experts including Professor Ravi Gupta a clinical microbiologist who sits on the UK government’s NERVTAG committee:

 

"Delta variant is the most dangerous variant we have ever seen"

 

"The most dangerous variant with immune evasion capabilities"

First you made the claim vaccination rates are too low to make an impact on the numbers. When it's shown 60% of Bangkok residents have a first dose (with roughly half the deaths coming from Bangkok), suddenly the vaccines aren't effective and you need evidence they provide protection against Delta.

 

One does wonder why you bothered to highlight vaccination rates were low in the first place, if in your opinion they are going to be ineffective against the delta strain.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, jacob29 said:

First you made the claim vaccination rates are too low to make an impact on the numbers. When it's shown 60% of Bangkok residents have a first dose (with roughly half the deaths coming from Bangkok), suddenly the vaccines aren't effective and you need evidence they provide protection against Delta.

 

One does wonder why you bothered to highlight vaccination rates were low in the first place, if in your opinion they are going to be ineffective against the delta strain.

Simple really because you came to me saying that the numbers were misleading, they were not, they are a data point. Your theory is flawed proven with the low vaccination rates and lack of efficacy with one dose but since you ignore even the experts I'll leave you to it, not going to waste my time further with you on this.

[jacob29]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Simple really because you came to me saying that the numbers were misleading, they were not, they are a data point. Your theory is flawed proven with the low vaccination rates and lack of efficacy with one dose but since you ignore even the experts I'll leave you to it, not going to waste my time further with you on this.

This is the second time you have misquoted me, please do not do it again. I did not claim the numbers were misleading.

 

You misrepresented the numbers by suggesting they're showing a trend of increasing mortality rates for the under 60 demographic, when they don't. The monthly numbers show this very clearly. Even if we assume the vaccine is 100% ineffective, it's a red herring as your conclusion would still be wrong.

[Bkk Brian]

Great if you're a mouse apparently you want keel over and die....555 but seriously I wish them all the best with this development.

 

Two nasal spray COVID-19 vaccines under development by Thailand’s BIOTEC

Trials of this vaccine in mice show high levels of antibodies that prevent viral infection of the lungs. Two doses of the vaccine were administered to mice injected with COVID-19 and it was discovered that the mice did not die or fall sick and they ate as normal with their weight remaining stable.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/two-nasal-spray-covid-19-vaccines-under-development-by-thailands-biotec/

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[bkkcanuck8]

46 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Your opinion though not shared by the experts including Professor Ravi Gupta a clinical microbiologist who sits on the UK government’s NERVTAG committee:

 

"Delta variant is the most dangerous variant we have ever seen"

 

"The most dangerous variant with immune evasion capabilities"

 

at 3:40

https://www.channel4.com/news/delta-variant-is-the-most-dangerous-variant-we-have-ever-seen-says-professor-ravi-gupta

To be clear, the current variants currently have the same classification: "Variant of Concern".  There are not any variants that have risen to the next higher level of: "Variant of High Consequence" (none of those yet).    All these Greek Letter labelled variants are only a very small subset of the variants as viruses naturally mutate constantly.  [not much different than what happens to you vs your father generation (usually they can tell from your Y-DNA that how closely two people are related (within a still wide margin of error)... i.e. cousins vs 5th cousins (example - it is not that cut and dried)... or within the last 5000 years.  Within a few human generations there are mutations in your Y-DNA that are introduced... this is basically the same with RNA (single strand - non-living) viruses (RNA mutates faster than DNA typically). [NOTE: I would not classify my knowledge of biology to be strong, but at least my curiosity is still relatively strong for a layperson with regards to biology (I prefer other sciences, though now I wish I took more biology courses than I did)]

 

Current levels of classification that I know of are: "Variant of Interest", "Variant of Concern", and "Variant of High Consequence".  Then of course if it substantially mutates that would be considered a different strain, but doing that through "Antigenic Drift" would likely take decades on average at least. 

 

Right now, "Delta" is of concern because it is more contagious (R₀ of between 4 and 5 I believe; originally COVID-19 it had an R₀ of between 1.5 and 2.5; less than 1 and the cases will drop, more than 1 and cases will rise).  Not R₀ is affected by the measures taken to control it since you have to really track it in the wild to know how contagious it is.  The Delta variant has become the dominant strain.  That said, the vast majority of people that need to seek treatment are those that are unvaccinated (I believe I heard 99%+ of the cases now in the US are unvaccinated).   That is with the Delta being the dominant variant. 

 

As far as I can tell the current mortality rate is 1.74% in the US.  June 1st (using the wayback machine)... [just picked a date earlier no specific reason for June 1st], the mortality rate was higher at 1.79% (which I would consider likely to be in the margin of error between the two - so my guess is the difference is not statistically significant).  I believe though the ICUs are filling up with more young people now than before (also based on reports from the US). 

 

I think most of the elevated concern is that Delta virus is more contagious -- not that it is more deadly (unless it is just more deadly because more people caught the virus).   It also seems like there is a slightly less efficacy of the vaccine (but the vaccine still works to protect you against severe COVID for the vast majority of people).   Understand though that two different efficacy numbers are very hard to compare against each other directly - or between vaccines... since they are dependent on the population sample that is/was used at the time it was measured. (the number can often be misused).

 

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

To be clear, the current variants currently have the same classification: "Variant of Concern".  There are not any variants that have risen to the next higher level of: "Variant of High Consequence" (none of those yet).    All these Greek Letter labelled variants are only a very small subset of the variants as viruses naturally mutate constantly.  [not much different than what happens to you vs your father generation (usually they can tell from your Y-DNA that how closely two people are related (within a still wide margin of error)... i.e. cousins vs 5th cousins (example - it is not that cut and dried)... or within the last 5000 years.  Within a few human generations there are mutations in your Y-DNA that are introduced... this is basically the same with RNA (single strand - non-living) viruses (RNA mutates faster than DNA typically). [NOTE: I would not classify my knowledge of biology to be strong, but at least my curiosity is still relatively strong for a layperson with regards to biology (I prefer other sciences, though now I wish I took more biology courses than I did)]

 

Current levels of classification that I know of are: "Variant of Interest", "Variant of Concern", and "Variant of High Consequence".  Then of course if it substantially mutates that would be considered a different strain, but doing that through "Antigenic Drift" would likely take decades on average at least. 

 

Right now the most "Delta" is of concern because it is more contagious (R₀ of between 4 and 5 I believe; originally COVID-19 it had an R₀ of between 1.5 and 2.5; less than 1 and the cases will drop, more than 1 and cases will rise).  Not R₀ is affected by the measures taken to control it since you have to really track it in the wild to know how contagious it is.  The Delta variant has become the dominant strain.  That said, the vast majority of people that need to seek treatment are those that are unvaccinated (I believe I heard 99%+ of the cases now in the US are unvaccinated).   That is with the Delta being the dominant variant. 

 

As far as I can tell the current mortality rate is 1.74% in the US.  June 1st (using the wayback machine)... [just picked a date earlier no specific reason for June 1st], the mortality rate was higher at 1.79% (which I would consider likely to be in the margin of error between the two - so my guess is the difference is not statistically significant).  I believe though the ICUs are filling up with more young people now than before (also based on reports from the US). 

 

I think most of the elevated concern is that Delta virus is more contagious -- not that it is more deadly (unless it is just more deadly because more people caught the virus).   It also seems like there is a slightly less efficacy of the vaccine (but the vaccine still works to protect you against severe COVID for the vast majority of people).   Understand though that two different efficacy numbers are very hard to compare against each other directly - or between vaccines... since they are dependent on the population sample that is/was used at the time it was measured. (the number can often be misused).

 

 

Yea agree with most of what you say, although there are also now real life studies that prove it is more dangerous in terms of hospitalization.

 

The latest from Scotland regardless of vaccination status.

 

"The Delta coronavirus variant, first identified in India, carries about double the risk of hospitalization compared with the Alpha variant, first identified in the U.K., according to research from Scotland released today."

 

However regards the vaccines not as good but still effective:

 

"The BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine provided 79 percent protection against infection from the Delta variant, compared with 92 percent against the Alpha variant, at least two weeks after the second dose, the study found."

 

"The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, meanwhile, offered 60 percent protection against the Delta variant compared with 73 percent for the Alpha variant."

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/delta-coronavirus-variant-doubles-risk-of-hospitalization-scottish-study/

 

 

 

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Kadilo]

3 hours ago, jacob29 said:

This is the second time you have misquoted me, please do not do it again. I did not claim the numbers were misleading.

 

You misrepresented the numbers by suggesting they're showing a trend of increasing mortality rates for the under 60 demographic, when they don't. The monthly numbers show this very clearly. Even if we assume the vaccine is 100% ineffective, it's a red herring as your conclusion would still be wrong.

Well spotted. 
 

No surprise that he never responded.  

[webfact]

Thailand reports record 21,838 new coronavirus cases and 212 deaths

 

FILE PHOTO: Health care workers move a dead body to a container after a hospital morgue overwhelmed by COVID-19 deaths begun to store bodies in refrigerated containers, as the country struggles to deal with its biggest outbreak to date, in Pathum Thani, Thailand July 31, 2021. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

Thailand on Saturday (August 7) reported 21,838 new COVID-19 cases and 212 additional deaths over the past 24 hours.

 

Full story: https://aseannow.com/topic/1226717-thailand-reports-record-21838-new-coronavirus-cases-and-212-deaths/

 

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/Admin