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Thailand reports 18,501 new COVID-19 cases, 20,606 recoveries, 229 more deaths


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Some people here are posting that the official numbers underestimate the number of infections, which is true. There isn’t enough testing ™️ .

 

but, the real question is if the number of infections is increasing or decreasing, on a daily basis.

 

My sense is, based on anecdotal evidence, that the epidemic is decreasing in intensity. 
 

What do you think?

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8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Some people here are posting that the official numbers underestimate the number of infections, which is true. There isn’t enough testing ™️ .

 

but, the real question is if the number of infections is increasing or decreasing, on a daily basis.

 

My sense is, based on anecdotal evidence, that the epidemic is decreasing in intensity. 
 

What do you think?

Impossible to tell without at the very least a 50% increase in testing plus home test kits are being being used so we don't really know about positives. It's only walkins and known clusters. Walkins have been around the same number for a while. Walkins have declined by 9 from yesterday so this isn't significant.

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The Thai authorities are almost certainly keeping the reported numbers artificially low.

 

I suspect they've reached a breaking point with the economy and need to open up the country at any cost.

 

The psuedo proof of this will be when far too many misguided tourists show up, contract the virus here and it gets picked up on their return to other countries.

 

The same thing happened year ago.

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1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Must be close to 15,000 ATK positives in the last week. Official daily infection numbers does not indicate these are ever being included. Testing remains plateaued as do infection numbers.

That depends, it is possible that those that tested positive by an antigen test are subsequently tested by PCR. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Some people here are posting that the official numbers underestimate the number of infections, which is true. There isn’t enough testing ™️ .

 

but, the real question is if the number of infections is increasing or decreasing, on a daily basis.

 

My sense is, based on anecdotal evidence, that the epidemic is decreasing in intensity. 
 

What do you think?

Good question, if the official numbers of those in ICU and on ventilators can be taken as fairly accurate then it does seem to be decreasing in intensity. I'm holding off on an official trend yet for another few days as I really don't like flatline numbers when there is also flatline testing.

 

Of course its clear in a minority of Provinces this is not the case such as Phuket and it is increasing there.

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1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

UPDATE: 18,501 confirmed cases. 2,339 probable ATK cases. 7-day testing average is 50,679.

 

Does the brown 'microscope' testing box (50,679) include any ATK tests?

 

And how many ATK tests were done to yield 2,339 potentially positives? (I assume that 64,098 is the total number of ATK tests to date, but I guess it could be for one day?)

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52 minutes ago, cormanr7 said:

That depends, it is possible that those that tested positive by an antigen test are subsequently tested by PCR. 

 

Even allowing for a % of false positives these numbers don't seem to make daily infection numbers example being the 7000 previously recorded in a single day. False negatives are also of concern.

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11 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

Does the brown 'microscope' testing box (50,679) include any ATK tests?

 

And how many ATK tests were done to yield 2,339 potentially positives? (I assume that 64,098 is the total number of ATK tests to date, but I guess it could be for one day?)

The microscope box is for daily PCR tests only. The 64,098 figure is the total antigen rapid tests "daily" figure but the caveat for that is that this also includes those sold in pharmacies etc. To get a sense of positivity rate for rapid tests then they are contained in the daily publications sometimes, here's one as an example showing 23.53%.

https://media.thaigov.go.th/uploads/public_img/source/230864.pdf

data 23 aug 7.png

 

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2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Some people here are posting that the official numbers underestimate the number of infections, which is true. There isn’t enough testing ™️ .

 

but, the real question is if the number of infections is increasing or decreasing, on a daily basis.

 

My sense is, based on anecdotal evidence, that the epidemic is decreasing in intensity. 
 

What do you think?

Whilst in Thailand I have found it best not to think too hard about what the General (and his friends) say or the numbers they produce. I cannot think around the corkscrew.

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48 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The famous Yogi Berra quip about predictions (Predictions are difficult, especially about the future) might not always hold true.

 

Given the fact it looks as if boosters---at least one and perhaps yearly---will be necessary, Covid and Thailand are unlikely to have begun their final breakup.

 

As it is, vaccine supplies on order to Thailand leave a gap from mid October until December, so a good portion of the population will remain un-vaxxed. Second, many of the vaxxes in Thailand are Sinovac, which research shows (another poster above put a very recent study) is the worst against Delta and breakthrough infections. Third, if boosters are necessary, Thailand will be standing in line again, as countries with lots of doses will take care of their own people before donating/selling to Thailand.

 

Thus, I suspect even if there is a relaxation of Covid closure measures, they will be back again by year end, and likely next year, too, as the vaxxed Thais begin to lose their immunity as the effects of administered vaxxes wane, and boosters are not yet available.

I suppose there is some good news in this as once all are vaccinated 2x (2022??) then the AZ manufacturing plant should be able to deliver enough boosters each year (6m per month is 72m per year). Assuming the AZ vaccine will be upgraded to cope with the Omega(3)IIIa (subsection 3b) version which will be the new variant of note.

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