Thailand cuts 2021 GDP outlook after deadly Covid-19 wave

[webfact]

Thailand is likely to grow 4 per cent next year, supported by exports and tourism, according to Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Finance Ministry's fiscal policy office. 

PHOTO: EPA-EFE

 

Bangkok - THAILAND'S economy is set to expand more slowly than previously expected this year as the country emerges from its deadliest Covid-19 outbreak, the Finance Ministry said.

 

On Thursday (Oct 28), it lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 1 per cent expansion, from 1.3 per cent predicted in July.

 

It is the ministry's fourth revision this year after a wave of cases that began in April triggered restrictions on businesses and travel that crippled growth.

 

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Full story: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/thailand-cuts-2021-gdp-outlook-after-deadly-covid-19-wave

 

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[ExpatOilWorker]

5 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand is likely to grow 4 per cent next year, supported by exports and tourism, according to Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Finance Ministry's fiscal policy office. 

 

5 minutes ago, webfact said:

On Thursday (Oct 28), it lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 1 per cent expansion, from 1.3 per cent predicted in July.

4% or 1%??

Quality reporting!

[RichardColeman]

Be lucky to get above zero with no tourists this year (they aint coming in enough numbers to matter) and a full Q1 of tourists being knocked off last year. And before someone starts saying that Thailand has other parts of the economy, if Thailand really is 20% gdp tourism, they are starting at a -5% this year with Q1 loss before they even start any growth. Even to hit 1% they would have to have huge growth in others areas.

[mikebell]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Even to hit 1% they would have to have huge growth in others areas.

Scams, bank fraud? And that's before the Gov corruption is uncovered ten years down the line.

[realfunster]

5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

4% or 1%??

Quality reporting!

 

The linked article explains more clearly than the extract, the 4% growth quoted is for 2022, which is already a downward revision from the previous 5% estimate. You would think with a worse than expected 2021, the rebound should be higher in 2022 but obviously they suspect differently. Perhaps a realization that tourism is not coming back until at least 2nd half of 2022?

[khunpa]

Tourism = 20% of GDP

Tourism = Dead!

 

100% - 20% = 80%
 

Forecasted growth = 4%
 

So are we at 104% or -16%????

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Tourism = 20% of GDP

Tourism = Dead!

 

100% - 20% = 80%
 

Forecasted growth = 4%
 

So are we at 104% or -16%????

Thai math is different.

Last year (2020) was -20% on 2019 = 80%

+4% of 80% = 3.2% ........ so prediction for next year (2022) will be 83.2% of 2020, which is a 4% increase on 2021

 

2020 will be 4% more than 2021, or 17% less than 2019

Although personally, I think 4% is optimistic, and 2022 might be another reduction.

[Almer]

Easy to revise not so easy to predict