SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Despite people thinking that life is stable and rational, nature has other plans. IMO chaos is more normal.

Sooo, if it does take over the whole planet, that's just the way the cookie crumbles. For all our vaunted science, we don't have many answers, and despite all the vaccine mandates, if nature decides we must lump it, that is our fate.

 

IMO if the Swedish way had been done by all countries, we'd be over it by now. IMO trying to eradicate it was misguided and just postponed a situation such as we are in in NZ now. 18 months with hardly any cases and now it's apparently taking over the country, despite high vaccination rates.

I'm not so sure.... 

 

The criticism thrown at the UK is that they didn’t do enough to mitigate the spread... the result was Alpha variant. The Criticism thrown at South America is similar. The same criticism is being thrown at the African nations although its been difficult for them to get hold of the vaccines. 

 

When nothing is done to mitigate spread the virus eventually evolves into a variant of concern, when will it evolve into a variant of high consequence? and will that happen regardless of what we do? is that only a matter of time? if its only a matter of time will slowing it down be sufficient to allow time for research into better treatment, better vaccines ?????..... Can millions of lives be saved with continued vaccinations ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Virt]

36 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Have your colleagues and friends suffering from long covid been vaccinated? Have they recovered?

3 of them were vaccinated, and still suffers from long covid. 

1 of them had gotten smell back, but not taste after a few months.

 

Vaccines only lowers the chance of getting long covid.

[Thunglom]

25 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Excellent reply.

Pity that your reference to many being double vaxxed had nothing to do with what I wrote.

What you wrote has nothing to do with anything -

You made an oblique reference to Sweden - the implication being they somehow did something different, when in actual fact they ended up towing the line.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Thunglom

[Chomper Higgot]

52 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Stopping all air travel for everyone would slow all diseases down.

If people can't move around, neither can disease.

Given that it’s already spread globally, stopping all air travel would have near zero impact on its spread.

[Virt]

54 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Live the rest of your life cowering in a corner if you want.

It's not for me.

 

At age 65 I doubt I've got more than 5 years left.

I don't have any worries about long-term problems, I won't be here to see them.

Not hunkering down and will still continue with travel plans this x mas/new years eve, even if omicron is on the lose.

 

I just take precautions and hope my vaccinations will do what they are supposed to do if I'm unlucky and get the virus.

 

We can't keep living in a world with lockdowns, but we can at least receive the vaccines, so we have a better chance of things returning to normal again.

 

Sad to hear you only think you have 5 years left.

70 is way to early to die.

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

Precisely the point scientists make about Omicron's apparent mildness in SA due to prior immunity. They in fact use the UK example where Delta looks milder because of prior immunity and vaccines (Delta right).  Delta (the virus) was not milder in the UK, the UK was better protected.

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338765030313984

 

 

Here is a graphic of that wall of immunity in the UK:

 

"What we’re holding out hope for is that England’s 'immunity wall' will hold up well, and that the share of cases ending up in hospital or worse will be kept low. Exactly how low will be critical."

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427353117986829

 

[Chomper Higgot]

33 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here is a graphic of that wall of immunity in the UK:

 

"What we’re holding out hope for is that England’s 'immunity wall' will hold up well, and that the share of cases ending up in hospital or worse will be kept low. Exactly how low will be critical."

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427353117986829

 

It’s not just hospital cases.

The rate at which infections are increasing is also a threat to other essential services where high numbers of staff off sick will have an impact.

[fjb 24]

7 hours ago, rabas said:

It depends very much on what is meant by mild.

a) Omicron itself is an intrinsically milder virus?  Or

b) cases in SA are mild relative to SA's previous waves.

 

Very different scenarios. Scientists and SA officials lean towards b while cautioning about assuming a. The primary reason is that after three prior waves, roughly 72% in Gauteng have had Covid and many are vaccinated including 50+% of older people, shifting most cases to lower ages.

 

But because Omicron easily cuts through existing immunity (Delta can't) many cases have some existing immunity in addition to being younger.  Younger cases with existing immunity surely mean milder cases. There is no reason to assume the Omicron strain is significantly weaker. 

 

South Africa’s high level of infections could be masking how severe Omicron is

Interesting what this Madhi postulates (vaccine expert Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand,) he said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalizations and severe illness.

Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 months of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer. UK's Boris J is placing his hopes on 3rd shot booster injections (untested, no safety data). Perhaps UK's predicament (After accomplishing one of the quickest and most universal vaccination drives, the U.K. now has more cases than it did during last winter's wave when nobody was vaccinated.) can be attributed to the under performing experimental jabs, especially AZ's poor VE when R-SA unvaxxed and naturally immune are the ticket now.

I see some European countries are now seeing omicron infections primarily in the vaccinated, notably Denmark.

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[Scott]

6 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Interesting what this Madhi postulates (vaccine expert Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand,) he said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalizations and severe illness.

Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 moths of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer. UK's Boris J is placing his hopes on 3rd shot booster injections (untested, no safety data). Perhaps UK's predicament can be attributed to the under performing experimental jabs, especially AZ's poor VE when R-SA unvaxxed and naturally immune are the ticket now.

I see some European countries are now seeing omicron infections primarily in the vaccinated, notably Denmark.

There is nothing to suggest that natural immunity is better than immunity provided by vaccines.  There is also nothing to indicate that antibodies last longer with natural immunity.  

 

It's somewhat misleading to compare the situation in South Africa to the UK without mentioning some of the factors that are in play. 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

27 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Interesting what this Madhi postulates (vaccine expert Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand,) he said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalizations and severe illness.

Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 months of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer. UK's Boris J is placing his hopes on 3rd shot booster injections (untested, no safety data). Perhaps UK's predicament (After accomplishing one of the quickest and most universal vaccination drives, the U.K. now has more cases than it did during last winter's wave when nobody was vaccinated.) can be attributed to the under performing experimental jabs, especially AZ's poor VE when R-SA unvaxxed and naturally immune are the ticket now.

I see some European countries are now seeing omicron infections primarily in the vaccinated, notably Denmark.

Without any consideration of what might account for the differing infection rates between SA and the UK, you jump to conclusions that, by chance, align with the points of view you have previously expressed.

 

There is nothing on the comparison between the UK and SA that makes ‘a good case for natural immunity’.

By example, it’s summertime in SA and winter in the UK, a seasonal difference that is accompanied by significant changes in how people spend there day, in doors or out and about in fresh air.

 

And once again we see the Strawman, and frankly intellectually dishonest, argument regarding the vaccines in terms of the new strain of the virus.

 

The vaccines administered where designed to combat earlier variants of the virus, not the new variant.

 

As for your ‘possible deleterious effects’, present your evidence, or accept you are making a baseless assertion.

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[ThailandPermanent]

What's the chance that Thailand bans travel from the UK, given the surge in omicron? 

(Crystal ball stuff, but perhaps there was some hinting from the TAT/government...wishful thinking though)

I'm desperate to spend Christmas in the UK with my aging parents, but have to also think about what happens if I get stranded there

[fjb 24]

28 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The vaccines administered where designed to combat earlier variants of the virus, not the new variant

Could be why Denmark at ~77% fully vaccinated are getting hammered again, the covid vaccines will set you free....just not the mediocre leaky vaccines currently in use...

Hows that for strawman/baseless assertions. Probably just flu season kicking off.

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[fjb 24]

54 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Without any consideration of what might account for the differing infection rates between SA and the UK, you jump to conclusions that, by chance, align with the points of view you have previously expressed

you need to learn how to read and acknowledge the message's intent and then refrain from gaslighting when you don't like and cannot accept the truth. Your game is getting old.

 

^{Interesting what this Madhi postulates (vaccine expert Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand,) he said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalizations and severe illness.}

^{Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 months of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer. UK's Boris J is placing his hopes on 3rd shot booster injections (untested, no safety data). Perhaps UK's predicament (After accomplishing one of the quickest and most universal vaccination drives, the U.K. now has more cases than it did during last winter's wave when nobody was vaccinated.) can be attributed to the under performing experimental jabs, especially AZ's poor VE when R-SA unvaxxed and naturally immune are the ticket now.}

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[fjb 24]

35 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The vaccines administered where designed to combat earlier variants of the virus, not the new variant

Countries with highest prevalence of omicron variant have a fraction of infections of countries with little or no omicron, ie, Suisse, have a look, but delta or another variant.. If you want anybody to believe anything you claim you need to show some proof of your feeble gaslighting attempts.

[Chomper Higgot]

36 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Could be why Denmark at ~77% fully vaccinated are getting hammered again, the covid vaccines will set you free....just not the mediocre leaky vaccines currently in use...

Hows that for strawman/baseless assertions. Probably just flu season kicking off.

So now you are repeating the strawman argument that the vaccines designed for earlier variants (for which they dramatically reduced infections, serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths).

Edited December 15, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[Chomper Higgot]

32 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

you need to learn how to read and acknowledge the message's intent and then refrain from gaslighting when you don't like and cannot accept the truth. Your game is getting old.

 

^{Interesting what this Madhi postulates (vaccine expert Shabir Madhi of the University of the Witwatersrand,) he said emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalizations and severe illness.}

^{Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 months of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer. UK's Boris J is placing his hopes on 3rd shot booster injections (untested, no safety data). Perhaps UK's predicament (After accomplishing one of the quickest and most universal vaccination drives, the U.K. now has more cases than it did during last winter's wave when nobody was vaccinated.) can be attributed to the under performing experimental jabs, especially AZ's poor VE when R-SA unvaxxed and naturally immune are the ticket now.}

Again, misrepresentation of facts.

 

The vaccination programs have dramatically reduced infections, serious illness, hospitalizations, and deaths.

 

A new variant comes along for which the vaccines where not designed.

 

The Uk’s vaccination program has been a very clear success, it has done what it was designed to do.

[Chomper Higgot]

24 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Countries with highest prevalence of omicron variant have a fraction of infections of countries with little or no omicron, ie, Suisse, have a look, but delta or another variant.. If you want anybody to believe anything you claim you need to show some proof of your feeble gaslighting attempts.

Show some proof then.

 

 

[fjb 24]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

proof

Here, as I said previously, read my postings, check the links, and stop gaslighting, you are embarrassing yourself.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Here, as I said previously, read my postings, check the links, and stop gaslighting, you are embarrassing yourself.

I, and others, have pointed out the logical fallacies in your arguments, comments I have made that directly address the arguments you made.

 

Your failure to address those logical fallacies is in no sense an embarrassment to me.

[fjb 24]

21 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Show some proof then

SA has 100% omicron cases now and <.3 of new covid case infections of DK where < .5% of covid infections are omicron. Similar scenario in UK with about double infection rate of SA and <2% omicron case rates.

It's obvious the vaccines are suck-holing with delta infection in Europe and many other locations and SA may just be gaing traction with NI against the weaker omicron. But, you despise me for sharing my thoughts here when you share nothing but criticism and gaslight everything you don't like. You need to get a life.

There, say your sorry and that you have manged to learn something.

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[fjb 24]

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

logical fallacies

Show some proof then.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

SA has 100% omicron cases now and <.3 of new covid case infections of DK where < .5% of covid infections are omicron. Similar scenario in UK with about double infection rate of SA and <2% omicron case rates. There, say your sorry and that you have manged to learn something.

Again you completely ignore significant factors that are in play.

 

It’s summer in SA, it’s winter in the UK and Denmark - As has been explained to you.

 

Additionally, testing and reporting regimes between these nations are different.

 

You are comparing ‘apples and oranges’ then predictably concluding on an answer that fits the narrative of your posting history.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, fjb 24 said:

Show some proof then.

See post above.

[fjb 24]

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

summer in SA

Summer, winter, yeah and so? But, then we factor in NI, omicron, and....anything else? I'd say we need vaccines that work in winter & summer, like the all season variety.

Whatever time you get up in the morning will need to be a lot earlier to get me.

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[TropicalGuy]

On 12/5/2021 at 11:12 AM, Scouse123 said:

+1

 

Not even voting on this.

 

Nonsense poll when nobody knows anything of substance about the variant-------and that includes the experts!

Yeah we do ……decent articles and videos every day…..with booster, it’s  no more dangerous than Delta. ….Perspective: 0.03% pop. Covid Death Rate, around 90% estimated as very old /very unfit/ unvaxxed

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Summer, winter, yeah and so? But, then we factor in NI, omicron, and....anything else?

The summer winter comparison problem in your argument is ‘summer in SA v Winter in UK/Denmark’.

 

Have another go.

[Chomper Higgot]

6 minutes ago, TropicalGuy said:

Yeah we do ……decent articles and videos every day…..with booster, it’s  no more dangerous than Delta. ….Perspective: 0.03% pop. Covid Death Rate, around 90% estimated as very old /very unfit/ unvaxxed

The data on Omicron is being compiled and is at best only a few weeks old.

 

Hiw dangerous’ it is to an individual is only part of the equation, also to be considered is how fast it is spreading and the rate that it is putting people into hospital or otherwise rendering them unfit for work or in need of medical support.

[rabas]

2 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

Although UK vaccination rate is  2.7 times that of S Africa, new (7 day/M)  UK covid infections and deaths are double and quadruple that of S Africa making a good case for the benefits of natural immunity coupled with waning abysmal performance after 3 months of the vaccines including AZ and mRNA varieties. Looks like SA is in better shape than the UK due to the possible deleterious effects of poor efficacy and performance of AZ, moderna and pfizer.

It's too early to generalize about Omicron, especially since deaths lag by weeks. Using reliable data, the following graphs blow a big hole in your anti vaccine argument. Vaccines completely invert death to case ratios between the UK and SA. 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Edited December 15, 2021 by rabas

[fjb 24]

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Denmark

Covid/vaccines

[Scott]

Keep it civil and stop with personal commentary about other posters.  

 

Please remember that when talking about vaccination rates, we are talking about people eligible for a vaccine.  Depending on where you live, there are large sections of the population that remain unvaccinated and can't yet be vaccinated.