How Japan succeeded in controlling Covid

[cmarshall]

How Japan succeeded in keeping its Covid death rate of 14.66 deaths per hundred thousand so low has been a mystery.  Some people suspected that the Japanese were simply under-reporting or that they benefitted from some lucky environmental factor like climate.  Japan never locked down although they did ban entry by foreigners.

 

Here is a link to an article in today's New York Times by Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani, a virologist, who advised the Japanese  government on Covid policy.  His explanation is that he and his colleagues determined as early as February, 2020 that aerosol transmission from asymptomatic carriers was the likely vector of infection.  They then decided on a novel approach to contact tracing which was retrospective contact tracing, rather than the prospective method applied elsewhere when contact tracing was attempted at all.  Instead of trying to identify all the persons who had contact with someone after he became infected, they traced back the contacts that the infected person had previously to try to identify who it was who infected him.  This was a plausible strategy only because they Japanese scientists had also figured out that most of the spread of Covid occurred indoors and was due to a limited number of superspreaders, i.e. infected persons who spread much more virus than the average infected person.  This retrospective method offered one huge advantage in that the number of contacts to be traced did not explode exponentially as happens with the prospective method to the point of overwhelming the tracing strategy altogether.  

 

To those familiar with economics this brings to mind the Pareto Rule in which 80% of an outcome is due to only 20% of the participants.  So, Warren Buffet's outstanding investment record over the decades is due to a very small number of investments that vastly outperformed while his average investments only performed to an average outcome.  Similary, Amazon has studied the returns for refunds of their products, which are a significant expense, and found them to be due to 20% of their customers.  That's why if you return their products a little too often they will close your account.

 

In addition to identifying the superspreaders Dr. Oshitani and his colleagues also recognized early that spreading occurred indoors in a limited number of settings such as restaurants, bars, gyms, etc.  The government therefore adopted and consistently promoted a message to avoid the "Three C's," i.e. closed spaces, crowded spaces, and close contact settings.  The Japanese people cooperated because they trusted their government.  

 

So, very impressive.  By contrast in 2020 medical crackpots like Drs. Tegnel and Giesecke in Sweden were putting into effect the bogus "herd-immunity" strategy of simply doing nothing.  This was a policy that lacked any basis in science and condemned vulnerable populations, such as nursing home residents, to high mortality rates since the Swedish government took no steps at all to protect them.  

 

It's hard to miss the message that both rich and poor Asian countries as a group far outperformed Europe and the US in protecting their populations.  The US count of Covid deaths per hundred thousand is currently at 264.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/japan-covid.html

[cmarshall]

*Deleted post edited out*

 

By this late date you still haven't caught on to the excess death method of estimating the true Covid death rate which fully accounts for your by now quite out-of-date objection?

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

[ezzra]

Japan and the Japanese people are  obedient and orderly society, they do what that they told for the good of the nation and society, unlike most other countries in the world where being a denier of this and that is being worn like a badge of honor and they're proud to be the thorn in the law abiding citizens backsides...

[Chomper Higgot]

29 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

I guess that is why the facts keep rolling out of all the mistakes they made with the entire approach since day 1. As well how poor vaccins have helped, or QR codes, or the majority of lockdowns.

Not to mention all damages caused, throwing developing countries 2 decades back and all the delayed healthcare, etc etc etc etc. -- Yeah I rest my case when you read back in 2-3 years.

Facts?

[Bkk Brian]

Japan did well in keeping its death rates down there is no denying that, many countries though did better, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia.

 

Japan was also very strict on its border controls and again has ramped them up last week with new entry of foreign nationals is suspended. Bars and restaurants etc all now have to close early at least in Tokyo and other area's.

 

Omicron recently hit Japan and its shooting up, deaths are following, however nowhere near previous levels. Fingers crossed for them their formula carries on producing good results.

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

Japan and the Japanese people are  obedient and orderly society, they do what that they told for the good of the nation and society, unlike most other countries in the world where being a denier of this and that is being worn like a badge of honor and they're proud to be the thorn in the law abiding citizens backsides...

Yes, a factor, but not the main factor which, as Dr. O<deleted>ani points out, was that the Japanese virologists were better at the science than in the West and the government listened to them.

[Jeffr2]

36 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Japan did well in keeping its death rates down there is no denying that, many countries though did better, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia.

 

Japan was also very strict on its border controls and again has ramped them up last week with new entry of foreign nationals is suspended. Bars and restaurants etc all now have to close early at least in Tokyo and other area's.

 

Omicron recently hit Japan and its shooting up, deaths are following, however nowhere near previous levels. Fingers crossed for them their formula carries on producing good results.

Oz was doing fairly well until recently.  Wow.  I like Our World in Data.  Great for comparing countries.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Edited January 25, 2022 by Jeffr2

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Oz was doing fairly well until recently.  Wow.  I like Our World in Data.  Great for comparing countries.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

It still is doing very well compared to some:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states

[Jeffr2]

Just now, placeholder said:

It still is doing very well compared to some:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states

USA #1!!!!!!!! ????

 

I think they set a global record with 1MM new cases in a day?  Terrible.

[Scott]

Unsubstantiated, misleading, troll posts and replies removed.  I do believe this topic is about the success of controlling Covid.   

 

Please stay close to the topic.  Comparisons are permitted.   

 

[Ryan754326]

Is it taboo to mention that Japan also has the lowest rate of obesity in the developed world? 

[Virt]

5 hours ago, cmarshall said:

It's hard to miss the message that both rich and poor Asian countries as a group far outperformed Europe and the US in protecting their populations.

Could you compare economics as well?

 

I know we are better off than before covid 19 here in Denmark even if we had way higher deaths per million than Asia.

 

Our national debts to GDP has not been as low since 2009.

We are having lower unemployment rates compared to 2019. 2.8% now and 3.7% in 2019.

 

We had the biggest economical growth in 27 years which is now threatened by the lack of workforce.

 

I know Sweden and Norway did good economically and USA actually did quite good too.

 

How did Asia do financially?

 

Did their lower rates of deaths come with a financial consequence for the hundred of millions of people?

[cmarshall]

10 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Is it taboo to mention that Japan also has the lowest rate of obesity in the developed world? 

Not taboo, but irrelevant without any data to support its importance.

[Virt]

3 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Is it taboo to mention that Japan also has the lowest rate of obesity in the developed world? 

That's quite amazing since i know how good karaage don and gyoza taste.

Could eat that all day long, but it would not make me lose weight ????

[cmarshall]

9 minutes ago, Virt said:

Could you compare economics as well?

 

I know we are better off than before covid 19 here in Denmark even if we had way higher deaths per million than Asia.

 

Our national debts to GDP has not been as low since 2009.

We are having lower unemployment rates compared to 2019. 2.8% now and 3.7% in 2019.

 

We had the biggest economical growth in 27 years which is now threatened by the lack of workforce.

 

I know Sweden and Norway did good economically and USA actually did quite good too.

 

How did Asia do financially?

 

Did their lower rates of deaths come with a financial consequence for the hundred of millions of people?

China reported growth of 8.1% in 2021, although it had slowed down by the fourth quarter.  That seems reasonable in view of the fact that the reduction in consumer spending on services in the US and elsewhere was accompanied by an increase in spending on goods, to the benefit of both China and US retailers like Amazon.com, etc.  Also, China managed the epidemic very well without ever having a national lockdown.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

36 minutes ago, Virt said:

Could you compare economics as well?

 

I know we are better off than before covid 19 here in Denmark even if we had way higher deaths per million than Asia.

 

Our national debts to GDP has not been as low since 2009.

We are having lower unemployment rates compared to 2019. 2.8% now and 3.7% in 2019.

 

We had the biggest economical growth in 27 years which is now threatened by the lack of workforce.

 

I know Sweden and Norway did good economically and USA actually did quite good too.

 

How did Asia do financially?

 

Did their lower rates of deaths come with a financial consequence for the hundred of millions of people?

China rocked right after the pandemic started.  The US rocked because of near zero interest rates.  And starting to tank now as they're projected to rise shortly.

 

From the economic analysis I've read, which is a few months old, lockdowns didn't really impact businesses badly.  Though many want you to think so.

[placeholder]

49 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Not taboo, but irrelevant without any data to support its importance.

I think it's obviously very relevant. But that makes all the more striking Australia's success at suppressing covid so long through social distancing and travel restrictions.  Even though it was late to vaccinations. Among economically developed nations, Australia has the world's 5th highest level of obesity.

Edited January 25, 2022 by placeholder

[Ryan754326]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

Not taboo, but irrelevant without any data to support its importance.

Irrelevant? The numbers have clearly shown since the very beginning that the elderly and obese (with the usual related health problems) represent the overwhelming majority of covid deaths. 
 

Why do so many people want to pretend that everyone is equally susceptible, whether they’re 25 and fit, or 85 and already living in a nursing home?

 

 

[Virt]

24 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

China rocked right after the pandemic started.  The US rocked because of near zero interest rates.  And starting to tank now as they're projected to rise shortly.

 

From the economic analysis I've read, which is a few months old, lockdowns didn't really impact businesses badly.  Though many want you to think so.

 

51 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

China reported growth of 8.1% in 2021, although it had slowed down by the fourth quarter.  That seems reasonable in view of the fact that the reduction in consumer spending on services in the US and elsewhere was accompanied by an increase in spending on goods, to the benefit of both China and US retailers like Amazon.com, etc.  Also, China managed the epidemic very well without ever having a national lockdown.

 

 

China is a bit hard to compare when it comes to success in COVID control vs economics.

 

Their released numbers of positive COVID cases are a huge joke, so we have no idea how well they managed the pandemic.

[Ryan754326]

33 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I think it's obviously very relevant. But that makes all the more striking Australia's success at suppressing covid so long through social distancing and travel restrictions.  Even though it was late to vaccinations. Among economically developed nations, Australia has the world's 5th highest level of obesity.

Can’t argue with you here. Australia did a good job of keeping things under control, but personally, it’s the last place in the world I’d have wanted to spend the last two years.

Covid has completely changed my perception of Australia. I don’t think even my fellow Canadians would have put up with that level of control over our lives. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Ryan754326

[Jeffr2]

15 minutes ago, Virt said:

 

China is a bit hard to compare when it comes to success in COVID control vs economics.

 

Their released numbers of positive COVID cases are a huge joke, so we have no idea how well they managed the pandemic.

Understood.  But if hospitals were packed and bodies stacked in trucks, we'd have seen that.  Like we saw in part of Europe, the US and here.  Never saw that in China.  I think they've gone way overboard with the lock downs, but so far, have managed to keep deaths quite low.

[cmarshall]

11 minutes ago, Virt said:

 

China is a bit hard to compare when it comes to success in COVID control vs economics.

 

Their released numbers of positive COVID cases are a huge joke, so we have no idea how well they managed the pandemic.

It's not true that we have no idea how well China managed Covid.  For example, "The Economist" maintains estimates of excess deaths that includes China.   From the table below you can see that the estimate of Covid deaths for China using the excess deaths method is much higher than the official count, as is also true for the US, but even the higher estimate puts China at a level comparable to the European countries and about half of the real US Covid death rate.

 

On the other hand, if you prefer to believe that there is no data at all for anything about China leaving only your prejudices on which to base your opinion, you are welcome to do so.  

 

 

 

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

[Jeffr2]

Seems masks are a key to controlling the spread.  Asia is OK with them, the West made it a political statement.

 

https://www.abc12.com/coronavirus/university-of-michigan-study-shows-mask-mandates-at-schools-show-lower-covid-transmission-rates/article_9dfcd525-94d5-50cb-9b00-ac1c2171d7fe.html

 

Quote

 

University of Michigan study shows mask mandates at schools show lower COVID transmission rates

 

The rate of infection reached an average of about 45 cases per 100 thousand students by late September in school districts with mask mandates.

 

Virus spread was 62% higher in school districts without mask rules- where the infection rate averaged 73 cases per 100 thousand students by late September.

 

 

[TropicalGuy]

56 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Irrelevant? The numbers have clearly shown since the very beginning that the elderly and obese (with the usual related health problems) represent the overwhelming majority of covid deaths. 
 

Why do so many people want to pretend that everyone is equally susceptible, whether they’re 25 and fit, or 85 and already living in a nursing home?

 

 

Obesity a massive epidemic in the West, overloads Hospitals with these and other self-abusers ( Alcohol, Drugs, Smoking) and results in high levels of Diabetes & Liver / Heart Disease; big time Unfitness, which Covid thrives on …hardly Irrelevant.

[TropicalGuy]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Japan did well in keeping its death rates down there is no denying that, many countries though did better, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia.

 

Japan was also very strict on its border controls and again has ramped them up last week with new entry of foreign nationals is suspended. Bars and restaurants etc all now have to close early at least in Tokyo and other area's.

 

Omicron recently hit Japan and its shooting up, deaths are following, however nowhere near previous levels. Fingers crossed for them their formula carries on producing good results.

Those much smaller Asian countries  did very well. Japan the only large country to manage it well. Australia & NZ became dystopian “ zero Covid” nightmares, too high a price…..NZ could easily have duplicated Japan, being an island  nation too, but no, western socialist Nannie’s know best…..

[TropicalGuy]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Not taboo, but irrelevant without any data to support its importance.

No “data” required to know its bloody cold on Everest ;  same with Obesity Unfitness / Covid obvious causality……

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, TropicalGuy said:

Those much smaller Asian countries  did very well. Japan the only large country to manage it well. Australia & NZ became dystopian “ zero Covid” nightmares, too high a price…..NZ could easily have duplicated Japan, being an island  nation too, but no, western socialist Nannie’s know best…..

Japan had and continues with some pretty extreme measures

 

Nightmare': Workers, students decry Japan virus entry ban

The 30-year-old is one of more than 370,000 people left in limbo by Japan's coronavirus border rules, which bar almost all new arrivals and are the strictest in the G7. Even as other countries with tough virus restrictions like Australia reopen, Japan still bans tourists and business visitors as well as new foreign workers, students and their dependents.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220125-nightmare-workers-students-decry-japan-virus-entry-ban

 

New entry of foreign nationals
As emergency precautionary measure from a preventive perspective, new entry of foreign nationals is suspended. This measure will remain in effect at least until the end of February.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html

[cmarshall]

16 minutes ago, TropicalGuy said:

No “data” required to know its bloody cold on Everest ;  same with Obesity Unfitness / Covid obvious causality……

Far too simplistic.  According to the Global Obesity Observatory, the US is the 14th most obese nation, but the first thirteen are Pacific island nations with tiny populations.  So, among highly populous nations the US is the most obese.  That might possibly explain the very high rate of US Covid deaths per hundred thousand at 264, but for the fact that Australia and New Zealand are not far behind the US in obesity (18th and 19th respectively,) but they had far lower Covid death rates than the US at 12 and 1 per hundred thousand respectively.  

 

https://data.worldobesity.org/rankings/

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, Ryan754326 said:

Irrelevant? The numbers have clearly shown since the very beginning that the elderly and obese (with the usual related health problems) represent the overwhelming majority of covid deaths. 
 

Why do so many people want to pretend that everyone is equally susceptible, whether they’re 25 and fit, or 85 and already living in a nursing home?

 

 

Regardless of any health issue the single biggest factor determining probability of dying from COVID is vaccination status.

 

If you are 25 and fit, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

If you are 85 and living in a nursing home, you are dramatically less likely to die from COVID if you are vaccinated v unvaccinated.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

4 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Obesity a massive epidemic in the West, overloads Hospitals with these and other self-abusers ( Alcohol, Drugs, Smoking) and results in high levels of Diabetes & Liver / Heart Disease; big time Unfitness, which Covid thrives on …hardly Irrelevant.

Again, regardless of any other underlying health condition those who are vaccinated are dramatically less likely to be made seriously I’ll, hospitalized or killed by COVID.

 

.