Just like the flu now?

[MarkT63]

The old virus has certainly polarized opinions when discussing anything from mask wearing to restrictions all around the world.

One of the arguments we hear from one side of the fence is "it is just like the flu now".

Daily deaths are certainly down globally compared to last year so I was interested to see if this statement stands up.

Annual deaths due to flu related causes vary wildly year on year.

According to the World Health Organization, 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide. https://www.who.int/news/item/11-03-2019-who-launches-new-global-influenza-strategy.

So, in a mild year that equates to an average of 795 deaths per day and in a severe year that equates to an average of 1,781 deaths per day.

The 7-day average of COVID deaths to 10 March was 6,842, which equates to 8.6 times more deaths than a mild flu year and 3.8 times more deaths than a severe flu year.

That does not take in to account recent research, using excess deaths, that suggests actual deaths from COVID could be three times more than officially reported figures https://www.bbc.com/news/health-60690251

So, if this research is correct, that would be 25.8 times more deaths than a mild flu year and 11.5 times deaths more than a severe flu year.

So, are we at the stage where we can claim “it just like the flu now”?

Edited March 11, 2022 by MarkT63

[hughrection]

You also must add in the figures of people who died because they were unable to be admitted to hospital for other illness. Add in the many people who didn't get illnesses checked out because they were afraid to go see the doctor in a busy hospital during high numbers of infections.

I read somewhere that excess cancer deaths were up considerably during the past 2 years.

Thailand will amend their covid deaths by as much as 30% and some countries may he higher than this.

We won't know the true figures until its all over and figures are worked out. (if ever)

[internationalism]

in european countries, where elderly got free yearly flu shots, deaths are very low, around 100 per country with over 10% infected every year. Those infections are spread over 3-4 winter months, rarely coming as waves, so the health system is not overburdened.

Example with omicron, when most probably everybody will get it 9even if vaxed and boosted) and with tens dying daily, is completely different to flu. Different class of danger. Still, is't not as delta and earlier once, and there is chance for immunity, better than from vaxes

[PeachCH]

9 people in my family got infected before they have been vaccinated. 

All of them didn't have grave symptoms, was more like a cold. After 3-4 days were recovered. Despite they got infected, all of them are vaccinated by now. 

[1FinickyOne]

17 hours ago, MarkT63 said:

So, are we at the stage where we can claim “it just like the flu now”?

I don't think there is an all inclusive "we" about anything these days..

 

One Flu Over The Cuckoo's Nest

[alanrchase]

 

Death rates have decreased every year since 1950 until an increase in2019. The fine print at the top says that 2020 and newer data is a projection and does not include the impact of Covid 19. Not sure why you chose 2013 as a reference date? The dada is not much use to make any claims about the impact of Covid 19 one way or the other.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate&ved=2ahUKEwj89o-3x7_2AhVfxzgGHRm4DjkQFnoECAQQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0ImXMuUZviApkohnNLATQ7

[placeholder]

What we do know is that in countries that have excellent public health reporting excess mortality has been way up compared to pre-covid years.  These are generally wealthier nations.

 

The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts

Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8

[Foghorn]

Massachusetts over counted 4081 which now they have taken off their Covid rates , how many more over counted , all part of the hype that fueled the hysteria at the time 

[placeholder]

46 minutes ago, Foghorn said:

Massachusetts over counted 4081 which now they have taken off their Covid rates , how many more over counted , all part of the hype that fueled the hysteria at the time 

Probably not so many more...

“We are adopting the new definition because we support the need to standardize the way COVID-19-associated deaths are counted,” said DPH State Epidemiologist Dr. Catherine Brown. “Prior to the CSTE definition, states did not have a nationally recommended definition for COVID-19 deaths and, as such, have been using a variety of processes and definitions to count their deaths. In Massachusetts, our definition has consistently been broader than most other states. After a deep dive into our data and reviewing thousands of death certificates we recognize that this updated definition gives us a truer picture of mortality associated with COVID-19.”

https://www.mass.gov/news/department-of-public-health-updates-covid-19-death-definition

 

Actually, they were acting in accordance with guidelines that came in part from the CDC.

[scorecard]

You think too much.

 

Find the current health regulations for wherever you are and follow them.

[grain]

Australia's figures are wildly inaccurate. People test themselves and report positive RATs, so those figures come out that day. Then 2-3-5 days following their initial positive test they do 2nd/3rd/4th RAT and report if still positive. Those figures come out that day. If they feel sick they'll go to a hospital for a PCR test, and that positive result comes out for that day's figures. So you can have 2-3-4-5 covid statistics for 1 person. Also mischievous people have reported BS RAT positives for other people. Someone even reported the NSW health Minister as having a positive RAT. 

[Scott]

This is anecdotal, but it ripped through my community in the US and a large number of people got infected.  The vast majority were fully vaccinated and most were boosted.  None of the ones I know were hospitalized and most were quite ill for about 5 days.  

 

None of them described it as being like having the flu, which lasts about 5 days as well.  The biggest difference for all of them was/is the recovery time.  All of them had some sort of lingering longer term effect, mostly fatigue.   The other factor to consider is that most of us have had the flu or been around people who did.  We pretty much have an idea of how sick we will get.  With Covid, it's a bigger unknown and most of the people I know, were a lot more nervous about having Covid than they are about having the flu.  

 

Depending on lot of factors, the impact will be similar to the flu on things like the economy, but productivity may be lower for a while after.  Also, it depends on whether others in or around infected people have to quarantine.  

 

I don't think we are there quite yet.  

[Meat Pie 47]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

This is anecdotal, but it ripped through my community in the US and a large number of people got infected.  The vast majority were fully vaccinated and most were boosted.  None of the ones I know were hospitalized and most were quite ill for about 5 days.  

 

None of them described it as being like having the flu, which lasts about 5 days as well.  The biggest difference for all of them was/is the recovery time.  All of them had some sort of lingering longer term effect, mostly fatigue.   The other factor to consider is that most of us have had the flu or been around people who did.  We pretty much have an idea of how sick we will get.  With Covid, it's a bigger unknown and most of the people I know, were a lot more nervous about having Covid than they are about having the flu.  

 

Depending on lot of factors, the impact will be similar to the flu on things like the economy, but productivity may be lower for a while after.  Also, it depends on whether others in or around infected people have to quarantine.  

 

I don't think we are there quite yet.  

I am not an expert since I am not a doctor but I have never known some one died of the flu well maybe there are but I never knew one. But I have  3 friends who died of covid and 2 are still in hospital with long term covid so I agree with most of your topic

[Scott]

1 hour ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

I am not an expert since I am not a doctor but I have never known some one died of the flu well maybe there are but I never knew one. But I have  3 friends who died of covid and 2 are still in hospital with long term covid so I agree with most of your topic

The flu can be quite deadly, depending on the strain.  Like you, I don't know anyone who has died of it, but I know people who came really, really close.   Also, like you, I have had friends and family die from Covid, but it's been quite a few more than 3. 

[Scott]

A post making an unsubstantiated claim has been removed.  Please provide a citation when posting something as factual.

 

[JeffersLos]

On 3/11/2022 at 3:35 PM, MarkT63 said:

are we at the stage where we can claim “it just like the flu now”?

Flu, yes.

 

Man-Flu, no, nothing is on par with that. 

[Scott]

A post claiming that the number of covid deaths are overcounted and removed for having no link.  But here is an article on the matter:

 

The pandemic toll may be three times greater than reported. That’s a lot of lost souls.

The new study, peer-reviewed, was published Thursday in the Lancet medical journal and carried out at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The research, examining the pandemic years 2020 and 2021, found that while the official death toll worldwide was 5.94 million due to covid-19, in fact 18.2 million people might have perished in the pandemic. That estimate is similar to one reached by the Economist in ongoing research that uses different methods.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/13/covid-death-toll-worse-than-reported/

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/11/2022 at 9:35 PM, MarkT63 said:

So, are we at the stage where we can claim “it just like the flu now”?

Jury is out on that, but while the official line as gathered from the radio ads ( I don't watch local tv as IMO it's unwatchable <deleted>) is that it's still something to be feared, the reality is that it doesn't appear to be so. The death toll is announced every day and on the last day that I heard the stats 8 died, all old. They won't say if people die FROM or WITH, so I'm only guessing if I opt for WITH.

It's probably too soon to be saying it's all over bar the shouting, but if a more deadly strain appears it's probably really going to knock the economy for six, as it's getting pretty bad already, and IMO has barely begun as the knock on effects of two years of restrictions is going to make things awful for a very long time ( rather like long covid ).

[ericdk]

I am 40 years old, unvaccinated and had omicron in February.

 

It was like a cold but with flu symptoms. I would say it was 10x less bad than the flu from 2018.

 

I went for a 15km walk on day 3. 

 

Only thing was a couple of days with really bad throat pain.

 

Overall, covid-19 to me was nothing. Would not have gone to the doctor with it if I didn't know it was covid. 

[internationalism]

you were lucky, that it wasn't delta.

You are protected for sometimes. But BA 2.2 might be just around the corner and not that easy as your omicron

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/22/2022 at 12:10 AM, internationalism said:

you were lucky, that it wasn't delta.

You are protected for sometimes. But BA 2.2 might be just around the corner and not that easy as your omicron

There is always "something" just around the corner, but if there was a more deadly strain of covid yet to appear, I can't see everyone accepting a return to lockdowns like at the beginning. There have already been several major anti covid mandate "demonstrations" around the world, and IMO people have had enough of them.

[Scott]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

There is always "something" just around the corner, but if there was a more deadly strain of covid yet to appear, I can't see everyone accepting a return to lockdowns like at the beginning. There have already been several major anti covid mandate "demonstrations" around the world, and IMO people have had enough of them.

Unless something extremely lethal comes along, I doubt that a return to lockdowns would be necessary.   We have a lot better understanding of this virus and how it works.  We have at least a roadmap and recipe of vaccines that work on the virus.  We also have a good heads up on what antiviral medications work. 

 

We also know what mitigation steps we need to take to protect ourselves and those around us.   We have a pretty good idea of what we have to do to avoid lockdowns.  

[soi3eddie]

I got Covid-19 in Pattaya about 27th February. Symptoms came on 2 days later when in Hua Hin. Shivers, runny nose and coughing. Tested positive on ATK on 3rd March. By 5th March was only coughing and no other symptoms. Never get Flu or Colds in normal years. This was mild. Did not stop me swimming, walking and Hiking before testing positive.

 

My parents aged 81 and 83 also got it about same time. As did my mother's sister in-law aged 78yrs. All in same household in the UK. All triple jabbed. None hospitalized. They were all recovered within 5-7 days.   

 

And the world still shuts down for this? Less bad than the flu in our experience. We were all fatigued though.

 

[ericdk]

It was a bad flu in the beginning.

 

Now it's like a bad cold.

 

It was never bad enough to shut down society for and take away our rights.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, ericdk said:

It was never bad enough to shut down society for and take away our rights.

 

What exact "rights" of yours were taken away?  And when was "society" shut down?

 

Did drinking alcohol in a pub or restaurant somehow become a "right" somewhere along the way? Is it enshrined in the Thai constitution somewhere that I've missed?

 

Or are you not happy about having to wear a face mask when outside in public to protect yourself and others around you from a virus that can put people in the hospital and kill them?  Did you lose your "right" to endanger others?

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/23/2022 at 5:07 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

What exact "rights" of yours were taken away?  And when was "society" shut down?

 

Did drinking alcohol in a pub or restaurant somehow become a "right" somewhere along the way? Is it enshrined in the Thai constitution somewhere that I've missed?

 

Or are you not happy about having to wear a face mask when outside in public to protect yourself and others around you from a virus that can put people in the hospital and kill them?  Did you lose your "right" to endanger others?

 

I'll say the same thing as I said 2 years ago. Those that are scared of the virus can protect themselves, and the rest of us can get on with living our lives. Personal responsibility, not society wide dictats.

 

Had I waited a couple months longer I'd not even have needed to get vaccinated at all as apparently ( unless they change their mind ) the government is abandoning the vaccine passport which was necessary to go into many places and there never was a mandate to get vaccinated in NZ, so no restrictions on the unvaccinated once that happens. I guess I won't need a booster now.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'll say the same thing as I said 2 years ago. Those that are scared of the virus can protect themselves, and the rest of us can get on with living our lives. Personal responsibility, not society wide dictats.

 Except your version of "personal responsibility" is IRRESPONSIBILITY when you deliberately take actions, contrary to public health guidance, that may endanger others in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that has officially killed more than 6 million and continues to kill 25,000 or so people worldwide per week at present.

 

[Atlantis]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Except your version of "personal responsibility" is IRRESPONSIBILITY when you deliberately take actions, contrary to public health guidance, that may endanger others in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that has officially killed more than 6 million and continues to kill 25,000 or so people worldwide per week at present.

 

What don't you (and others) still not get about this? There is no black and white, zero and one, off and on, risk and no risk when it comes to this pandemic. I'm pretty sure you know this.

Then why on earth insist it is MY responsibility to do everything that YOU feel I ought to do when YOU have multiple ways of minimizing YOUR OWN risks?

Has anyone on this thread or anyone else on this board advocated for their "rights" to walk up close to you and cough in your face without consequence? Or advocated taking away your rights to vaccines? Or compel you to spend extended times in crowded spaces?

If you want close to zero risk, please go and live in a trailer in the middle of nowhere. No human contact = no virus = you're safe. Take as many boosters prior to living like hermit if you so choose. But wait wait, what's that you say? It's not fair that you have to do all this? Why should you have to do all this?

Well....welcome back to real society where shades of grey exist, where there is no one-off switch for Covid-19 risk, where individual's circumstances vary, where one-size-does-not-fit-all, where public health guidance is exactly that. Guidance. Partly because the people who wrote it recognize variation exists, exceptions are understandable, and individual citizens can and do exercise caution in their own ways.

[impulse]

On 3/22/2022 at 2:18 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

There is always "something" just around the corner, but if there was a more deadly strain of covid yet to appear, I can't see everyone accepting a return to lockdowns like at the beginning. There have already been several major anti covid mandate "demonstrations" around the world, and IMO people have had enough of them.

Don't forget that Johns Hopkins study that concluded the lockdowns only reduced deaths by 0.2%.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

53 minutes ago, Atlantis said:

Then why on earth insist it is MY responsibility to do everything that YOU feel I ought to do when YOU have multiple ways of minimizing YOUR OWN risks?

Because in a better world where people actually feel some sense of responsibility to those around them, you would NOT deliberately be doing things that would expose yourself and others to getting sick, and I would be doing the same.

 

Your version is kinda like saying, if you don't want someone to cough in your face, then don't come in the room or don't come close to anyone else...  How about instead, everyone covering their mouth and nose before they cough/sneeze... as a matter of politeness and consideration to others.  That's the analogy with COVID.

 

But hey, maybe you're the "cough in your face" type?