Thailand records highest daily COVID-19 deaths since January

[sandyf]

49 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

No doubt those would be the ones in the villages who sometimes get cremated the same day, and those that don't rarely get anyone to check them, e.g. they died of old age, so the figures are only what the government tells them, i.e. no autopsies to find out the cause of death.

In the bigger picture the cause of death is a bit academic as there will always be differences in interpretation. The only figure that makes any sense and can be used for global comparison is the excess mortality. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=THA~GBR

 

It should be noted that the rise in Thailand in recent months is probably due to more road deaths as the figures for previous years will have been reduced by the pandemic.

 

 

[onthedarkside]

A trolling post has been removed.

 

[Cabradelmar]

When (if) the daily death number hits 250 then maybe it's the surge everyone has been predicting. Until it's just another day in this never ending pandemic

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Details from the Ministry of Public Health on today's 125 newly reported COVID deaths:

 

One German and one Finland national among them.

 

Age range 1 year to 102 years. Median age 76, meaning half the deaths were in people younger than that, and the other half older than that.

 

97  of the deaths, or 78%, were in people age 60 and above.

 

Bangkok province had the most reported deaths with 10, followed by seven in Chonburi, and five each in Roi Et, Phrae, Rayong and Nakhon Sawan.

 

MoPH also cited various health risk factors present (not causes) in those who died of COVID, with the most frequent one being kidney disease, cited among 32 of today's reported deaths.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/542989153986080

 

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

In the bigger picture the cause of death is a bit academic as there will always be differences in interpretation. The only figure that makes any sense and can be used for global comparison is the excess mortality. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=THA~GBR

 

It should be noted that the rise in Thailand in recent months is probably due to more road deaths as the figures for previous years will have been reduced by the pandemic.

 

 

With your chart being cumulative deaths giving totals only as you know. To measure the true excess deaths for that whole time period to see where they are higher or lower than you need to switch to the default log scale which is ideal for measuring rates of change, particularly rates of growth. As you can see Thailand's excess deaths are currently over the 5 year average, the UK's is under.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

Road deaths this year in Thailand are currently under their normal high yearly rates by the way

 

[candide]

3 hours ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Sigh. 

 

New Cases spiked at the beginning of April. The trend had been 22,000 - 24,000, and jumped up for a few days....... just a few days!......... to over 28,000

 

We've known for roughly 2 years that death........ if it's going to happen.......... follows infection/diagnosis by 2 to 3 weeks, on average. 

 

So it should surprise no one....... NO ONE!........ that we're seeing a small increase in deaths NOW........ (!!!)......... 2 weeks after New Cases surged for a few days!

 

What's likely, of course, is the death rate will drop back down (to the 80s and 90s) fairly quickly.......... mirroring what New Cases did two weeks ago! DUH! 

 

. 

 

Personally, I think it would be great if the news media would explain what's going on.......... (since it's been known for a long time, already! )........ rather than sensationalizing it with shouts of "New High!" (115) and "New High!" (119) and "New High!" (125)...........all of which are qualified with the disingenuous "this year" or "since January"............

 

when all of them are nowhere near the "HIGH" for the pandemic, which is in the 300s! 

 

(And I think it would be great if ASEAN NOW followed suit, by not mirroring the news media's ridiculous and inappropriate sensationalizing!

 

How about ONE THREAD about deaths going up, along with an explanation as to how this was predictable..........and probably inevitable....... as a short-term consequence of the short-lived spike in New Cases from two weeks ago! How about a thread like THAT, huh? ????????????)

 

Cheers! 

Actually, the number may well be in the 300s. 

In other countries, the number of Covid deaths and the number of excess deaths are similar, in the +/- 10% range. In Thailand, the number of excess deaths has been every month around 3 times higher than the official number of Covid deaths, which raises obvious questions.

For example, in March, the average number of excess deaths compared to the highest of the previous year (2020) was 209 per day.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Whether something has been "sensationalized" is an opinion. The fact that the new "highest " number had to be qualified with "this year" and "since January" proves they are positioning it to be "sensational." The proof is, ultimately, that the new numbers are nowhere near the "highest"---not by a long shot!

 

 

It would seem you're not bothering to read these daily threads very closely, since EVERY daily COVID update I've written here for months now has included the following paragraph:

 

"For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. "

 

I would agree that we don't often see that kind of context in the Thai media news reporting. But people reading here definitely do get it... contrary to your comments above.

 

And in that regard, right now:

 

--COVID intubations at 867 have now reached 74% of their all-time peak of 1,172 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

--serious COVID hospitalizations at 2,062 have now reached 37% of their all-time peak of 5,626 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

--And current COVID deaths at 125 per day have now reached 40% of their all-time peak of 312 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

The other difference being, the current numbers are on their way up, and are expected to continue rising in the weeks ahead as the expected surge of Songkran holiday cases and resulting illnesses and deaths work their way thru the system.

 

The MoPH has said they could expect 50,000 cases per day and more than 250 deaths per day in the coming weeks... We'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

 

It's also worth noting that the supposedly mild Omicron variant actually led to MORE overall COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. at its peak at the beginning of this year compared to the peak of the Delta variant last fall... (Thailand, unfortunately, does not publicly report that same kind of data.}

 

And that's because while Omicron's symptoms may generally be milder, it also tends to infect many more people, a share of whom still get sick and die.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

[mrfill]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

While I find the listed case numbers as very worrisome and from a lack of testing, the deaths keep climbing upwards.  A few studies and reports indicate the lag time average from being infected to death.  Attached below is just one of the articles I found.  With knowing what the numbers are now and then extrapolating out we may well see over 200 or so deaths a day in the not to distant future.  Many of those have been vaccinated with the initial two doses and never boosted.  Boosters do give a fighting chance for not dying.  Those who wish to say that they would rather stay unvaccinated as the vaccines are untested need to think about there "My natural immunities are better than a vaccine" view.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext

 

https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/

 

From an article in The Lancet dated March 2020 - over 2 years ago and 9 months before any vaccine was available - detailing the effects at the time for the dominant variant. Since then we have had many, many more, each with differing effects. Omicron, for example, does not follow this schedule at all. Most people feel rough for a couple of days and after a week are perfectly ok. My 99 year old mother caught covid (omicron) while in hospital. She had no symptoms at all and 'recovered' in a week.

[timkeen08]

5 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Spot on! Positive test results are roughly 1 out of 2, meaning tests, esp. PCR tests, are only conducted if someone seeks medical attention due to more serious symptoms.

I'm in the hospital today for PreOp and scheduled for surgery tomorrow on L3,4,5,6,7,&8.  I was given a PCR test and my wife was given an ATK Test because she's staying with me for the total six days in hospital.  They sure are giving people PCR tests besides those having COVID.  we quarantined ourselves at home for a week before today so we would not test positive.  Half way through PreOp we got a call today that my surgeon just tested positive.  Everything rescheduled and quarantined at home again and another PCR test.  So there os no "only".  So many dangerous generalizations made on AN.  I sure can't believe you.

[delh]

Does anyone have detailed info on the deaths, IE, breakdown on age grous, pre-existing conditions etc?

[Dialemco]

We are going to have to live with the Viras to obtain herd immunity and concentrate in vaccination. Lock downs and restrictions just don't work

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, Dialemco said:

We are going to have to live with the Viras to obtain herd immunity and concentrate in vaccination. Lock downs and restrictions just don't work

 

1. Who, other than adult entertainment venues, is "locked down" in Thailand right now? Most of the country is open and operating more or less normally, except for the lack of the past normal numbers of foreign tourists.

 

2. A study just earlier this week found that so-called "herd immunity" just isn't going to happen with the Omicron variant because it's too easily spread/ too infectious, and that places that even had up to 80% past exposure and immunization didn't see dramatic declines in cases.

 

 

 

[anchadian]

A further report of how a holiday to Thailand turns into a living nightmare:

 

Banged up in paradise: how our dream holiday to Thailand ended before it began

 

Testing positive for Covid on arrival in Bangkok condemned Abigail Flanagan to nine nights in a ‘hospitel’ overlooking an eight-lane ring road

‘The man test negative, but you positive,” the hotel concierge explained gently, over the phone. “Please stay in room. The doctor will call tomorrow.”

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/banged-up-in-paradise-how-our-dream-holiday-to-thailand-ended-before-it-began-fttgqtmtr

[simola]

How many people died from heart attacks, strokes and cancer everyday?

[worrab]

The case numbers are still creeping down from 194 yesterday.

 

Health officials on Saturday (April 16) reported 171 new COVID-19 cases in Prachuap Khiri Khan province, of which 50 cases were found in Hua Hin.

Elsewhere in the province, 15 cases were found in Pranburi, 21 cases in Sam Roi Yot, 8 cases in Kuiburi, 4 cases in Thap Sakae, 17 cases in Bang Saphan, 4 cases in Bang Saphan Noi, and 52 cases in Mueang Prachuap Khiri Khan.

No new COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the province today.

 

https://www.huahintoday.com/hua-hin-news/april-16-prachuap-reports-171-new-covid-19-cases-50-in-hua-hin/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, delh said:

Does anyone have detailed info on the deaths, IE, breakdown on age grous, pre-existing conditions etc?

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

FDA authorizes COVID breath test for emergency use

 

"The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday authorized for emergency use the first COVID-19 test based on breath samples, a system that looks for chemical signatures of infection and can provide a result in about 3 minutes.

...

In its announcement yesterday, the FDA said the device, from Texas-based InspectIR, is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage and is designed for use in settings such as doctor's offices, hospitals, and testing sites. Testing is done by qualified, trained operators under the supervision of licensed healthcare providers.

...

The FDA said a large study found 91.2% sensitivity [the percent of positive samples the test correctly identified] and 99.3% specificity [the percent of negative samples the test correctly identified] for the test. A follow-up study that focused the Omicron variant found similar sensitivity results."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/fda-authorizes-covid-breath-test-emergency-use

 

 

No mention made in the FDA's announcement of just how much these little machines are going to be priced at...

 

But the announcement did say... InspectIR expects to be able to produce approximately 100 instruments per week, which can each be used to evaluate approximately 160 samples per day.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

More from Johns Hopkins on why so-called "herd immunity" is likely never to happen with COVID in its current form:

 

"CUMULATIVE INFECTIONS As of mid-November 2021—prior to the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2—about 44% of the global population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once, according to a report published last week in The Lancet.

 

However, the cumulative proportion of the population ever infected varied widely between countries and territories, with 40 countries having rates higher than 70% and 39 countries with rates lower than 20%.

 

Notably, the effective reproduction number was not associated with these rates, even when total immunity levels were 80%, showing that there is no clear herd immunity threshold at this time."

 

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---April-14--2022.html

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, Cabradelmar said:

When (if) the daily death number hits 250 then maybe it's the surge everyone has been predicting. Until it's just another day in this never ending pandemic

Your comment above reminds me about the story, by way of a COVID analogy, about putting a live frog in a pot of water, and turning on the stove to cook.

 

The frog doesn't notice anything's amiss as the water gradually keeps getting warmer and then hotter and hotter... Until by the time the frog notices, it's already too late and the frog is dead and cooked.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

FWIW, I saw various social media videos in the past two days of younger Thais out partying at big Songkran gatherings... And in the videos I saw, pretty much no one was wearing face masks as they all crammed in together in close quarters in the various venues.

 

They, being late teens and 20 somethings, might not be at great health risk should they contract COVID. But the same can't be said of their parents and grandparents when they later go home and gather with family members for Songkran.

 

To me, at least, under the circumstances, it seems like pretty thoughtless behavior.

 

 

[keithkarmann]

10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Walked over to the local Lotus last night to pick up a few items, traffic on Rama 4 at 8 pm was pretty steady as folks were returning from wherever.  Walked inside the store and it was fairly busy, along with many hacking and coughing.  We turned right around and walked back out and to the local 7-11.  People are out and about just like prior to covid when they were sick and were not wearing a mask, at least now they are wearing a mask which will contain the majority of the spread, that is until they take it off to wipe there nose and face right after they have their coughing and sneezing attack and then spit the phlegm out onto the pavement.....

I banned spitting anywhere inside our house boundary. Discusting habit only carried out by lesser inteligent people (in my opinion).

[ThailandGuy]

I do not understand why Thailand has such a high deathrate on such low covid cases a day.  We did not have that much people die of covid when we had about 90.000 news cases a day.  Why does this happen in Thailand?

[unblocktheplanet]

It seems "govt's" strategy is to weed off the old & the vulnerable. Tell me I'm wrong.

[ThailandRyan]

39 minutes ago, keithkarmann said:

I banned spitting anywhere inside our house boundary. Discusting habit only carried out by lesser inteligent people (in my opinion).

Same goes for the Snot Rockets I see Thai moto tax8s drivers shooting into the gutters.

[CygnusX1]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Boosters do give a fighting chance for not dying.

It’s not the bubonic plague! A calmer comment would have been along the lines of boosters greatly reducing the already small chance of dying. I wish everyone in Thailand had 3 shots of a quality vaccine, and have even controversially suggested in a previous post that Thai citizens be financially rewarded for so doing.

[riparian]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

FDA authorizes COVID breath test for emergency use

 

"The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday authorized for emergency use the first COVID-19 test based on breath samples, a system that looks for chemical signatures of infection and can provide a result in about 3 minutes.

...

In its announcement yesterday, the FDA said the device, from Texas-based InspectIR, is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage and is designed for use in settings such as doctor's offices, hospitals, and testing sites. Testing is done by qualified, trained operators under the supervision of licensed healthcare providers.

...

The FDA said a large study found 91.2% sensitivity [the percent of positive samples the test correctly identified] and 99.3% specificity [the percent of negative samples the test correctly identified] for the test. A follow-up study that focused the Omicron variant found similar sensitivity results."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/fda-authorizes-covid-breath-test-emergency-use

 

 

No mention made in the FDA's announcement of just how much these little machines are going to be priced at...

 

But the announcement did say... InspectIR expects to be able to produce approximately 100 instruments per week, which can each be used to evaluate approximately 160 samples per day.

 

Whatever happened to the Covid sniffing dogs?

 

[ThailandRyan]

41 minutes ago, CygnusX1 said:

It’s not the bubonic plague! A calmer comment would have been along the lines of boosters greatly reducing the already small chance of dying. I wish everyone in Thailand had 3 shots of a quality vaccine, and have even controversially suggested in a previous post that Thai citizens be financially rewarded for so doing.

Please do not clip a piece of any of my posts to make a point which could be seen as changing the meaning of the post and which is against forum rules.

 

Nobody claimed it was the bubonic plaque, that was the early used rhetoric by those wanting to make a comparison between the two, but no one here has said such things.  Calmer comments, are you trying to say that my comment was not PC in your book.  Does what you wrote and what I wrote mean the same things?, of course they do, so then why should I candy coat my words to conform to what others would like to hear.  A quality vaccine is also something that those folks who believe only those MRNA vaccines are those that do work, sorry to burst your bubble but not only do those vaccines work but so do the adenovirus vaccines, sure they may not match up, but everyone's body reacts differently to a vaccine and some can not have one or the other.  No one should be financially rewarded for taking a vaccine, and all vaccines should be free no matter what and should have been made readily available instead of the way Thailand played with people lives.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, riparian said:

 

Whatever happened to the Covid sniffing dogs?

 

They ended up becoming house pets........oh the sarcasm

[WEBBYB808]

I see.  Its open the door starting Oct 2021 and let more and more tourist in.  The country needs the money, vs the highest  ever death toll thats now the daily average  of deaths.  Whats the worse that could happen?  One more death doesnt seem to be one death too many attitude.   It could have been prevented  if the country had just waited a little longer.  Now, other nations  and countries are locking down and recording  higher  than average numbers.  By all means open when the time is right, but not for the sake of pleasure  and money before life.

[KanchanaburiGuy]

1 hour ago, ThailandGuy said:

I do not understand why Thailand has such a high deathrate on such low covid cases a day.  We did not have that much people die of covid when we had about 90.000 news cases a day.  Why does this happen in Thailand?

It isn't high. 

 

Across the course of the illness worldwide, about 1.2-1.4% of cases result in death. Thailand is something like 0.6.%

 

Even if you look at the current published numbers......... which really ISN'T the way it should be done(!).......... there are roughly 20,000 New Cases and 125 New Deaths. Since 1% of 20,000 is 200, that means the "New Deaths" come in at LESS THAN 1% or about........... 0.625%  !!! 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

If you look down the worldometers chart of Countries, you'll see a listing for total infections detected for each Country. If you move the decimal from the end of that number two places to the left, you'll see what a 1% benchmark would be for that country. This can then be quickly and easily compared to the Country's death totals, listed 2 columns to the right. 

 

This is an extremely quick and easy way to see how different Countries are performing compared to a 1% benchmark. 

 

Some Countries have done extremely well, showing only 0.2% death rates, or less. Some have done exceedingly poorly, showing 4-6% death rates! 

 

Thailand's reported results cannot be considered anything less than VERY GOOD....... at a rate of something like 0.6% !!! 

 

.

 

Now, I admit, there's a lot of cynicism about these numbers, not just for Thailand, but for literally every place on the planet! I don't think there's a single place on the planet the cynics would say has it right! NOT ONE! ????????????

 

The thing is, though, these same cynics can provide absolutely nothing  in the way of better answers! Oh, they might throw out WAGs (Wild-Arsed-Guesses) like "The real number is 5x or 10x that!" But, when queried, you'll find that they've got absolutely zero factual basis for such a claim! 

 

So, ultimately, when we've only got ONE set of numbers to work with, wantonly throwing those numbers aside in support of completely unsupported WAG cynicism......... I think would be extremely silly!

 

So, until we've got some OTHER numbers to work with........ numbers proven  to be more reliable than these.......... all we can do........... is go with what we've got! (And that's what I've chosen to do!) 

 

Cheers!