Baht Depreciation Could Have Widespread Implications

[metisdead]

Posts containing unsourced charts have been removed.

[Henryford]

3 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Norwegian Krone maybe?

The Russian Rouble has gained 16% !!

[John Drake]

Looks like they've managed to manipulate the exchange rate for the dollar back down, while allowing the Russian ruble to continue to rise. 

[RocketDog]

On 5/2/2022 at 1:00 PM, KhunBENQ said:

I like this Dollar centric view of the world ☹️

Baht depreciation while Euro is melting like ice in the heat of the war.

I like it too.

Been converting from USD for the last three weeks. I hope it hits 35 or above.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

Looks like they've managed to manipulate the exchange rate for the dollar back down, while allowing the Russian ruble to continue to rise. 

Can see some possible BoT intervention to save the Mighty Baht. The Fed increased interest rates 50 basis points yesterday, with promises to continue hiking.  But in Thailand, the USD tanks, more so than anywhere else.  Go figure

[RocketDog]

On 5/2/2022 at 4:46 PM, Isaan sailor said:

Happy evenings, or happy endings?

Same same but different.

[starky]

Better manipulate it then....cos that never been done before.

[starky]

On 5/2/2022 at 7:46 PM, Iamfalang said:

appreciation also affects all these things, in different ways.

 

and stagnation affects things as well.

 

and the speed of the depreciation

 

and the length of the effect.

 

and relative to other countries

 

Gotta put things in perspective.  It's fine now, nothing to worry about.    Ask me again next month, and the month after, and the month after.....the world changes.   things change.  it's never exactly the same.  not exactly.

 

heard it here first:   Baht going to 50/1 USD

2035?

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Can see some possible BoT intervention to save the Mighty Baht. The Fed increased interest rates 50 basis points yesterday, with promises to continue hiking.  But in Thailand, the USD tanks, more so than anywhere else.  Go figure

The currency market doesn't always respond immediately or logically in the short term.  Besides, the USD had been on fire and is just taking a breather.  I'm confident the dollar will roar back in the medium term.  35 inside two months!

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, RocketDog said:

I like it too.

Been converting from USD for the last three weeks. I hope it hits 35 or above.

I have done the same then converted some to 2 baht and 5 baht bars.

[huangnon]

On 5/2/2022 at 1:11 PM, timendres said:

With China locked down and nearing economic pandemonium, Thailand should embrace a weaker Baht, and do its best to lock in as much export business as possible.

Hopefully, a lot of companies (and even whole manufacturing industries) will re-locate from the CCP's dystopian country and start self-sufficient businesses in their own yards.

[Isaan sailor]

US Fed just hiked interest rated 50 basis points—and the Baht rises dramatically.  World upside down here.  Fed promised more hiking throughout the year—so will the Baht keep rising with each hike?  Amazing Thailand.

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

US Fed just hiked interest rated 50 basis points—and the Baht rises dramatically.  World upside down here.  Fed promised more hiking throughout the year—so will the Baht keep rising with each hike?  Amazing Thailand.

It is hard to understand when the dollar gets given a rise in interest rates for everything under the sun that it looses ground to the Baht.....amazing, and yet when Thailand tightens its fiscal constraints the Baht rises as well....

[morrobay]

14 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is hard to understand when the dollar gets given a rise in interest rates for everything under the sun that it looses ground to the Baht.....amazing, and yet when Thailand tightens its fiscal constraints the Baht rises as well....

Easy to understand from a 5 May explanation in an English local newspaper written by a Thai that is knowledgeable.  This is for those who are in denial about manipulation to keep the baht overvalued. The bank of Thailand might have used $16.5 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the value of the baht in the last 12 months. Other wise the not almighty baht would be about 40/$

[Daithi85]

22 hours ago, John Drake said:

Looks like they've managed to manipulate the exchange rate for the dollar back down, while allowing the Russian ruble to continue to rise. 

Ohhh lord ????

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, morrobay said:

Easy to understand from a 5 May explanation in an English local newspaper written by a Thai that is knowledgeable.  This is for those who are in denial about manipulation to keep the baht overvalued. The bank of Thailand might have used $16.5 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the value of the baht in the last 12 months. Other wise the not almighty baht would be about 40/$

That is pretty much common knowledge that Central Banks of most countries manage their currency through foreign exchange intervention. Really a short-term measure to manage currency volatility which is damaging to the economy and also to help maintain economic recovery momentum. Currency volatility s the bane for all businesses and the larger economy.

[Berkshire]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

That is pretty much common knowledge that Central Banks of most countries manage their currency through foreign exchange intervention. Really a short-term measure to manage currency volatility which is damaging to the economy and also to help maintain economic recovery momentum. Currency volatility s the bane for all businesses and the larger economy.

Agree.  The Thai Central Bank is mostly about stabilizing the THB, not manipulating it one way or the other.  Too many people throw around the word "manipulation" without really understanding what they're talking about. 

[RocketDog]

19 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I have done the same then converted some to 2 baht and 5 baht bars.

Good choice.

I'm going for one and two baht plain jewelry myself. Easier to monetize all over the Kingdom (or to dazzle some local beauties into being nice to me????).

 

Paper sucks. Fiat always ends badly sooner or later. NFTs will too IMO.

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

That is pretty much common knowledge that Central Banks of most countries manage their currency through foreign exchange intervention. Really a short-term measure to manage currency volatility which is damaging to the economy and also to help maintain economic recovery momentum. Currency volatility s the bane for all businesses and the larger economy.

But it is only "managed" in one direction  : keeping it overvalued. Regarding economic recovery since exports which includes tourism is the main economy driver it would seem 40/$ would be better than 34/$.  The person who wrote this article has a PhD in economics so maybe you should read it. How many different ways do ya all in the river here have for manipulation, support,manage,maintain stability,bla bla bla

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts and the replies have been removed.

[Eric Loh]

24 minutes ago, morrobay said:

But it is only "managed" in one direction  : keeping it overvalued. Regarding economic recovery since exports which includes tourism is the main economy driver it would seem 40/$ would be better than 34/$.  The person who wrote this article has a PhD in economics so maybe you should read it. How many different ways do ya all in the river here have for manipulation, support,manage,maintain stability,bla bla bla

Don't think the Baht need to intervene to keep it overvalued as the rising FED rate and rising yields offer a safe haven for investors. The strong USD only benefit tourists from USA. Other currencies to Baht have remained relatively benigned. Managing the currency by intervening to smooth out currency volatility is different from currency manupulation. Perhaps you can link the article for me to expand my knowledge. 

[morrobay]

The article is by Chartchai Parasuk regarding Thai interest rate policy from a 5 May local newspaper. I'm sure you can find it

 

[morrobay]

45 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Don't think the Baht need to intervene to keep it overvalued as the rising FED rate and rising yields offer a safe haven for investors

Typo . You meant BOT need not intervene to keep it overvalued. Well yes the Bank of Thailand has intervened by buying $16 billion worth of baht. You need to check your economic logic here: With the FED raising interest rates investeors both Thai and foreign will take their investments out of Thailand and into US investments. This devaluing the baht. 

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

The article is by Chartchai Parasuk regarding Thai interest rate policy from a 5 May local newspaper. I'm sure you can find it

 

I did read that article.  The author was mostly pushing for the BOT to follow the US Fed and raise interest rates.  I hope you're not agreeing with his sentiment as higher interest rates in Thailand would strengthen the THB.  The BOT mostly intervenes to prevent wild fluctuations in the currency market.  The fact that the USD has been strengthening against the THB for the better part of a year surely means that the BOT isn't trying to keep the THB artificially strong.  Otherwise the USD would still be at 30.  His suggestion that the USD could be at 40 without intervention is purely conjecture, based on Japan's numbers.  If the Thai government was seriously into manipulating its currency, I would imagine it would make more sense to artificially weaken the THB, not strengthen it.  China for years was guilty of this.  Anyways, I still see the USD making gains over the next few months.  But nothing keeps going up forever.     

Edited May 6, 2022 by Berkshire

[morrobay]

7 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

 If the Thai government was seriously into manipulating its currency, I would imagine it would make more sense to artificially weaken the THB, 

Is that why the BoT used

$16 billion of foreign currency reserves in the past 12 months to buy baht in order to artificially strengthen it ?  See article.

 

[salavan]

It won't decline as much as the £

£dips

£slides

£plummets

£crashes 

Micky mouse currency

[Isaan sailor]

On 5/5/2022 at 3:14 AM, Isaan sailor said:

US Fed just hiked interest rated 50 basis points—and the Baht rises dramatically.  World upside down here.  Fed promised more hiking throughout the year—so will the Baht keep rising with each hike?  Amazing Thailand.

I will add that the USD just hit a 20-year high on the basket of currencies used for comparison.  Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near what we see here in Thailand.  Someone’s keeping a lid on the USD in Thailand.

[morrobay]

8 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

I will add that the USD just hit a 20-year high on the basket of currencies used for comparison.  Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near what we see here in Thailand.  Someone’s keeping a lid on the USD in Thailand.

We will see how that works out for them. Read the article. Hello 1997

[DezLez]

11 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Read the article. Hello

I did not realize that the “Hello” magazine was such a great a source of financial information!

[jwest10]

On 5/2/2022 at 11:23 AM, RichardColeman said:

Please do something , the £ just hovering about 43 is nonsense for attracting tourism.

Hi Richard
Yes noticed this evening 6th May the exchange rate is 42.33 and the title of this about depreciation of the Baht but  remember before this Covit it went down to 38 and yes of course one gets the currency manipulators.
It is very difficult when many have a Thai family and yes of course we provide in the main much of the financial assistance and of course the prices going up and also those on frozen pensions.
One can only do ones best and take it day by day but it is getting increasingly difficult indeed with funds running low.
Also many have no homes or families back in ole blighty.
Not just in Thailand but ex-pats in other countries where people have gone to live with their loved one and yes indeed many who get this barbaric and most discriminatory policy of a frozen state pension.
There are those who lie about their residence but again not many have got pots of gold!!!