Thailand with a falling baht caught in stagflation spiral with high inflation and low GDP growth

[ThailandRyan]

55 minutes ago, Daithi85 said:

I wonder how that will effect a country like cambodia,the strength of the dollar will surely put alot of Europeans off going anywhere where dollar is used I would think.

Looks like a field day for Americans in Cambodia is kicking off.

[Isaan sailor]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Getting close as it is now

Looks like a race to the bottom.  Did the tanking Euro bring the USD down from 36 today?  Or did the tanking USD bring the Euro down?

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Looks like a race to the bottom.  Did the tanking Euro bring the USD down from 36 today?  Or did the tanking USD bring the Euro down?

USD dropped back to 35.95 per $1 just at bank closing time, and of course it is a Friday.  Lets see what Monday brings and then Tuesday.

[BayArea]

10 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

All these reports seem to infer that tourism *is* quite important to Thailands economy after many years of politicians telling everyone it is not

You have Thai apologists as well on this forum who refused to acknowledged tourism is 20% or more of the GNP even with numerous articles stating it plain and simple. 

[placnx]

19 hours ago, Daithi85 said:

Euros getting smashed and will continue to do so I think. Some experts are predicting 1 euro to 90 cents USD. 

It's certainly not over yet. The US is way ahead of EU in raising rates. EU is constrained by its weak members such as Italy, not to mention the issue of Russia cutting off Europe's gas!

[Daithi85]

13 minutes ago, placnx said:

It's certainly not over yet. The US is way ahead of EU in raising rates. EU is constrained by its weak members such as Italy, not to mention the issue of Russia cutting off Europe's gas!

With Europe about to raise interest rates I wonder will make any difference. Like u say russia is a huge problem. 

[placeholder]

On 7/8/2022 at 12:07 PM, vandeventer said:

The only good currency is the Russian but this won't last and America is already in a recession but don't want to admit it. But when you are feeling bad just lesion to this good old song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TBqhGEU4FA&list=RDMM&index=4

 

US Job Gains Top Estimates; Jobless Rate Holds at 3.6%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/us-job-gains-top-estimates-unemployment-rate-holds-at-3-6

[placeholder]

On 7/8/2022 at 12:47 PM, vandeventer said:

Prices are only going one way, and that's up with this President that blames everyone but himself. He's not in charge and never has been. America is circling the drain and the greenies are happy.

Thanks for the rant. I guess it's just a coincidence that prices are going up all over the world? And i'm sure you've done a careful analysis to compare how inflation is doing in the USA vs other developed nations. Can you share with us the results of your research?

 

And what's your evidence that fossil fuel extraction in the US has been hurt by green policies?

 

U.S. Oil Exports Soar as World Works to Replace Russian Supplies

The U.S. exported the most oil and petroleum products in history last week as countries across the world work to replace Russian supplies in the wake of the war in Ukraine.   

Exports of U.S. crude and petroleum products surged to a weekly record of 10.6 million barrels a day during the week ending April 15, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The country’s exports also outweighed its imports by the most ever in government data going back to 1990.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/u-s-oil-exports-soar-as-world-works-to-replace-russian-supplies

[ThailandRyan]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-what-is-stagflation-definition-world-bank/#:~:text=Does stagflation cause recession%3F,can make recessions more likely.

 

Does stagflation cause recession? Stagflation does not necessarily involve a recession - two quarters of negative economic growth. But the way central banks respond to periods of stagflation can make recessions more likely.Jun 13, 2022

[Baron Samedi]

Just like every other country with a corrupted system, high inequalities and an aging population. Look at the rest of the world.

[placeholder]

On 7/8/2022 at 4:56 PM, Dogmatix said:

The Thai current account held up well during COVID but now it is slipping away and they don't mention anything about the capital account side but there are definitely net outflows.  Let's hope it doesn't get to the 1997 situation. 

 

Amidst all this some idiot suggests destroying the slowly recovering tourism industry by imposing dual pricing on hotels.  Most tourists are not American or from HK and they are all suffering from falling exchange rates.  

Can the govt impose it? I just thought it was a typical clueless suggestion.

[jacko45k]

On 7/8/2022 at 11:24 PM, BayArea said:

You have Thai apologists as well on this forum who refused to acknowledged tourism is 20% or more of the GNP even with numerous articles stating it plain and simple. 

Because it isn't.......12% might be more accurate..... not certain where it exactly is now post Covid,  but I suspect a little lower. Don't have to be an apologist to get ones numbers right. 

[BayArea]

37 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Because it isn't.......12% might be more accurate..... not certain where it exactly is now post Covid,  but I suspect a little lower. Don't have to be an apologist to get ones numbers right. 

Even with this latest article stating in black and white whether its post pandemic or not is irrelevant because they the press are telling you what it is at this moment.  you're one of the apologists on this forum I'm referring to and you don't even realize it. 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Because it isn't.......12% might be more accurate..... not certain where it exactly is now post Covid,  but I suspect a little lower. Don't have to be an apologist to get ones numbers right. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1143467/thailand-share-of-tourism-to-gdp/

[placeholder]

Just now, placeholder said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1143467/thailand-share-of-tourism-to-gdp/

 

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1143467/thailand-share-of-tourism-to-gdp/

Nice graph, but then we know why the 2020 stats were low as far as the GDP, There was little to no tourism in the country.

[placeholder]

28 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Nice graph, but then we know why the 2020 stats were low as far as the GDP, There was little to no tourism in the country.

My post was in response to the varying claims of how much of Thai GDP tourism was responsible for. Not to establish that 2020 was a bad year for tourism.

[Lacrimas]

Here we go again.. the baht has been overvalued for years and now that it has again a resemblance of a real rate the crows are coming announcing the default of Thai economy. The USD is just strong, compare the Baht to all the other currencies and you will see nothing much has changed. 

[whiteman]

The sky is falling but the Thai Bhat is not run 4 the hills

[ThailandRyan]

The $1 has gained a little this morning.

 

Watching this mornings Business report they stated that the Baht will loose more ground to the USD and the gold prices will drop further downward on Wednesday and Thursday.  With that said I can see the market ebbing and flowing.  Gold speculation this morning also was made that prices would be heading downward as well.  Over the weekend, on Sunday, I watched as the gold shops in Bang Phli were crowded with people selling ornaments and such.  I wonder what Yaowarat Rd Gold Shops looked like in China town this weekend if there was some kind of sell off happening. 

[jacko45k]

21 hours ago, BayArea said:

Even with this latest article stating in black and white whether its post pandemic or not is irrelevant because they the press are telling you what it is at this moment.  you're one of the apologists on this forum I'm referring to and you don't even realize it. 

It is not about me....it is about you putting forward false numbers. So many seem to overestimate their own worth to Thailand. 

[BayArea]

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

It is not about me....it is about you putting forward false numbers. So many seem to overestimate their own worth to Thailand. 

False numbers? Lol!! See the graph above for reference dear sir.

Btw, your statement about the overestimation of my " worth" to Thailand is simply ridiculous. For some apparent reason you're set against the actual numbers on how much tourism plays an essential role in Thailand overall GNP. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by BayArea

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, BayArea said:

False numbers? Lol!! See the graph above for reference dear sir.

Not one of those bar charts shows 20% OR MORE as you claimed... 

There are many sources quote even less than those bar charts....  I simply believe too many folks think of Thailand as a one trick pony, which is far from the reality.