Brick and mortar retail is dead

[Walker88]

I have noticed a lot of 'economic optimism' among those who have money and need to justify having money (IYKWIM). The problem is that such people become competition for real entrepreneurs who need to consider the bottom line. What often happens is the market gets over capacity, and businesses that are trying to survive actually running a business do not have a large enough customer base to survive.

 

This type of situation isn't the only thing impacting Thai business currently, but it is important. Another issue is migration of FDI to neighboring countries as PP&E in Thailand comes to the end of its useful life. Vietnam is opening its doors and offering incentives. Over the next few years, absent better leaders in Thailand who understand these trends, UE will take a hit, which has knock-off effects in consumer spending.

 

Yet another issue is that Thailand's 'economic boom' from 2011 until Covid was almost exclusively debt-fueled. Bank lending, corporate bond issuance and household debt all increased at a multiple of GDP growth. (Thailand is hardly alone in this.....from 2016 to 2020 in the US Federal National Debt grew by more than $7 trillion while GDP grew less than half that).

 

These separate issues---excess capacity, business migration, record debt levels---demand an innovative and expert response, which the current government seems incapable of delivering. There might even be brain drain if Thailand doesn't offer opportunity to its best and brightest.

 

Thais are resourceful, so decline is not guaranteed, but it will take an integrated approach to solve, which will include tax incentives, better education, going after the corruption that skews wealth and indirectly leads to over capacity, and more judicious use of credit so that the banking system doesn't become more hobbled than the last decade has made it.

 

This is more than 'brick and mortar', though the move to online shopping has added to the bad debt issue.

[splodger]

21 hours ago, jesimps said:

 

The only problem with Lazada is that they always call when I'm having my afternoon nap ????

 

Toilet 

[BangkokReady]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

So you are calling me a racist for pointing out that thais continue to build businesses next to each other to the detriment of all the businesses ? Sure like to see the logic behind that most ridiculous statement. I would not have a Thai wife, 2 half thai children and an adopted thai daughter if I was this callous racist you deem to think I am one of. By the way I too am English and proud of it - but I also see the reality of stupidly building the same shops next to each other - which you obviously do not !

That guys a complete fruit cake.  Clearly racists against non-Thais, particularly Whites.  I think he's British but non-White.  Anything negative about Thailand or Thai people and the toys go straight out of the pram.  "This happens in Western countries as well!"  "You're racist, that's why you're saying this!" "Why is this news being shared?!!"  You name it, he'll try and use it to defend Thailand from any criticism or negativity, no matter how true or mundane.  He even defended and justified a foreigner being attacked for not buying a Thai a beer.

 

I'm genuinely surprised that he can effectively say "I don't like racists" while clearly being extremely racist.

[zzaa09]

25 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

That guys a complete fruit cake.  Clearly racists against non-Thais, particularly Whites.  I think he's British but non-White.  Anything negative about Thailand or Thai people and the toys go straight out of the pram.  "This happens in Western countries as well!"  "You're racist, that's why you're saying this!" "Why is this news being shared?!!"  You name it, he'll try and use it to defend Thailand from any criticism or negativity, no matter how true or mundane.  He even defended and justified a foreigner being attacked for not buying a Thai a beer.

 

I'm genuinely surprised that he can effectively say "I don't like racists" while clearly being extremely racist.

The new manipulated woke.

[Purdey]

Not to put a cat among the pigeons but over that last few weeks I have been to Central Bangna and Mega Bangna and they were jam packed. Hard to find parking. 

It could be Had Yai has too many stores for the population size but different areas are... ah not all reacting the same. Thai just like walking and eating in air-conditioned malls.

[sleepwalker999]

Thank you for your incredibly inspiring economic insights. Central Westgate would like to completely and utterly your argument. 

On 8/25/2022 at 6:10 AM, VinnieK said:

No offence but I think politics has nothing to do with it 

Much bigger forces at play 

Online shopping, over-supply of retail outlets and the pandemic are the key factors imo 

Example...two new big home improvement centers opened this year..one in HatYai and one near Songkla..

Hint...they were not needed

As many as 2-3 dozen upmarket restos and coffee shops have opened in Songkla in the last 3 years..even during the pandemic!!!

In a town not known for sophistication

 

 

 

 

I thought you said masks were the problem?

[Lorry]

On 8/26/2022 at 5:46 PM, BangkokReady said:

That guys a complete fruit cake.  Clearly racists against non-Thais, particularly Whites.  I think he's British but non-White.  Anything negative about Thailand or Thai people and the toys go straight out of the pram.  "This happens in Western countries as well!"  "You're racist, that's why you're saying this!" "Why is this news being shared?!!"  You name it, he'll try and use it to defend Thailand from any criticism or negativity, no matter how true or mundane.  He even defended and justified a foreigner being attacked for not buying a Thai a beer.

 

I'm genuinely surprised that he can effectively say "I don't like racists" while clearly being extremely racist.

He was commenting on the sentence

"Thais ridiculous propensity to keep building the same shops next to each"

I do think that's a racist comment.  Building the same shops next to each other is very common all over Asia, and I gave already examples of the same thing in the US and in Europe.  It has nothing to do with Thais,  nor is it ridiculous. 

 

Disclaimer: I am not Hammer. I am not English. I am not Thai. I am not woke (don't even know,  what exactly that is)

[MRToMRT]

On 8/25/2022 at 6:56 AM, spidermike007 said:

While many economies around the world are doing quite well, Thailand is in the doldrums.

Virtually every country in the world that is connected to the larger global economy is looking at recession looming if not already here. Thailand is definitely not alone in this.

[MRToMRT]

On 8/25/2022 at 1:20 AM, RichardColeman said:

That and also Thais ridiculous propensity to keep building the same shops next to each other and killing all trade.

What about London? Harley Street, Bond Street, Fleet Street, Billingsgate, Hatton Garden, Saville Row, Portebello Road, Templegate. 

[Kwasaki]

On 8/27/2022 at 11:06 PM, Lorry said:

He was commenting on the sentence

"Thais ridiculous propensity to keep building the same shops next to each"

I do think that's a racist comment.  Building the same shops next to each other is very common all over Asia, and I gave already examples of the same thing in the US and in Europe.  It has nothing to do with Thais,  nor is it ridiculous. 

 

Disclaimer: I am not Hammer. I am not English. I am not Thai. I am not woke (don't even know,  what exactly that is)

It not racist to state an observation and a fact. 

To refer to it as racist make you a newbie of woke. ????

[transam]

32 minutes ago, MRToMRT said:

What about London? Harley Street, Bond Street, Fleet Street, Billingsgate, Hatton Garden, Saville Row, Portebello Road, Templegate. 

....and 221b Baker Street.....????

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, MRToMRT said:

Virtually every country in the world that is connected to the larger global economy is looking at recession looming if not already here. Thailand is definitely not alone in this.

Apples and oranges. I am talking about now. Many economies around the world have been doing very well, since the shutdowns. Thailand never really recovered. It was at least partially self inflicted, due to extreme cowardice, horrific mismanagement of the economy, and gross incompetence. 

 

We are not talking about a coming recession, which I fully agree with you on.