Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Gknrd said:

I love BKK in the rainy season. The only time I come into BKK is in the rainy season because I can breath here during the rainy season.. haha...  I avoid it like the plague otherwise.

I also love MBK and Siam square. BKK is one of my favorite cities in the world, but only when it rains daily.. ... 

I know I am being selfish, but I hope the zero covid policy in China lasts for years. Keep it locked down. I am enjoying my self here more than I have in years.

Thanks Xi.

As a lifelong resident of the rainiest city in the USA, I prefer to visit right after the rainy season.  Our friends drive us all over Thailand to visit places, even places they have not been to before.   October and November has been ideal for us.

[daveAustin]

On 9/9/2022 at 6:28 AM, bkk6060 said:

All this plus, they cannot travel unless it is eseential.  I see the Chinese governemt restricitng their travel indefinitly for several reasons.  A big one being, they want to keep the money in their country and not have their people moving/buying property in other countries.

That and not wanting their citizens to die when it all kicks off.

[daveAustin]

Apologies for the overly negative tone on a people but I hope the place sinks… for the betterment of the rest of us and planet earth. If we get dragged down too, then so be it!

[ThailandRyan]

6 hours ago, chacha boom said:

All Americans are hypocrites. It's your main heritage and common denominator. I suspect that goes for you too "Hawaiian"...

Heritage, really, do you realize that all Americans are immigrants from other countries, and only the American Indians and Mexican/Spanish families of old are true Americans in the sense of the word.  The US is only 236 years old as a Nation.  So think about how many still remain loyal to there own familial traditions and cultures.  The MSM is not your friend and the information you glean from places like Wikipedia are not necessarily correct when it comes to things cultural or based upon heritage.  Calling all Americans Hypocrites is not appropriate either, maybe your view is the same as someone who has been assimilated and brainwashed.

[Baron Samedi]

3 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Undervalued stocks are cheap for various reasons.  Risk is a major factor for low values, especially for Chinese stocks.  To each his own.  At my age I don't have time to play risky games.

Fair enough ????

 

8 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

If things are so rosy in China why are so many Chinese trying to flee the country.  Those that succeed tell a different story than yours.  I just met two well educated Chinese brothers, who spoke perfect English, tell me they have no desire to ever go back.

So many? How many exactly?

 

It's not even true. There has been a clear trend of young educated Chinese people staying in their country rather than moving to the US or Europe because of the many opportunities in China in comparison to the West.

 

Things right now aren't rosy anywhere. How many Americans are "fleeing" the US and Europeans are "fleeing" Europe ? A bunch. This is just the reality of our world - people are displeased with the state of affairs where they live and want to see if the grass is greener elsewhere. So if they can afford it, they move.

 

And usually they go back home after a few years ????

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Baron Samedi said:

Fair enough ????

 

So many? How many exactly?

 

It's not even true. There has been a clear trend of young educated Chinese people staying in their country rather than moving to the US or Europe because of the many opportunities in China in comparison to the West.

 

Things right now aren't rosy anywhere. How many Americans are "fleeing" the US and Europeans are "fleeing" Europe ? A bunch. This is just the reality of our world - people are displeased with the state of affairs where they live and want to see if the grass is greener elsewhere. So if they can afford it, they move.

 

And usually they go back home after a few years ????

I wrote "trying to flee the country."

A quote from a ChinaFile article titled, Wealthy Chinese Are Fleeing the Country Like Mad........."Since 1990, China has gone from being the 4th largest exporter of immigrants to the 7th largest, an increase of more than 125%. Chinese people are immigrating in ever greater numbers, particularly the wealthy." 

If you took the time to actually do some research you would find a lot more information that validates what I have said.  But then, this is not what a Wu Mao does.

[Gweiloman]

15 hours ago, placnx said:

For a long time, the local party apparatus would have Chinese women aborted if pregnant with a second child.

Absolutely. One family, one child. Policy implemented for the greater good, to prevent over population. As a result, the country and the people prospered, as opposed to India, Africa etc. That’s what good governance is all about.

[Gweiloman]

10 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Real Hawaiians overwhelmingly voted for statehood.  Incidentally, the Hawaiians of old owned slaves.  King Kamehameha I used American advisers and American weapons to invade and conquer the islands he did not control.

Want to know how real Hawaiians feel?  My native Hawaiian relatives are proud Americans.  In fact one served as a U.S. senator.  Several are retired military veterans.

So it’s acceptable for Hawaii to invade and conquer islands he did not control but not for China to invade Taiwan, an island that China has legitimate claim over.

 

What’s that word again? Oh yes, hypocrisy.

[Gweiloman]

9 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

I assume you are an a person of outstanding , high moral character, unquestionable integrity, with no hint of personal prejudices and biases.  How did you inherit such perfect genes?

Chinese parents lol

[proton]

17 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Absolutely. One family, one child. Policy implemented for the greater good, to prevent over population. As a result, the country and the people prospered, as opposed to India, Africa etc. That’s what good governance is all about.

Good governance from the CCP whose stupidity had killed tens of millions in the great leap forward, political persecutions and cultural revolution? Thanks comrade!

[Gweiloman]

6 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Apologies for the overly negative tone on a people but I hope the place sinks… for the betterment of the rest of us and planet earth. If we get dragged down too, then so be it!

Don’t be so harsh about America. The whole world hates her I know but I don’t think anyone wishes for her complete demise. She serves as a good example of what hypocrisy and bad governance looks like.

[Gweiloman]

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I believe his comment was aimed at China, but then you decided it was meant the way you decided it was..lol

Well, he did say  for the betterment of the rest of us and planet earth So that can only mean one country.

 

[Gweiloman]

15 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Independent views which look at the real information, and who do not cherry pick what they want to use in order to make a point, and then when put on the spot with the truth, changes the subject line or diverts from it completely like I have observed from a few of your posts and others.  You really do need to look from the outside instead of being told what to believe.

Ditto.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and the replies have been removed.  

 

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[Hawaiian]

3 minutes ago, metisdead said:

Off topic posts and the replies have been removed.  

 

A post in which the quoted content had been altered to change the context of the quoted content and the replies have been removed:

 

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Thank you for being a watchful moderator.

[Hawaiian]

58 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Absolutely. One family, one child. Policy implemented for the greater good, to prevent over population. As a result, the country and the people prospered, as opposed to India, Africa etc. That’s what good governance is all about.

This policy has created a nightmare for those whose births were never recorded because their parents were afraid of prosecution or infanticide by the authorities.  Some of these unfortunate people have managed to flee to the outside world to tell their story.

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, proton said:

Good governance from the CCP whose stupidity had killed tens of millions in the great leap forward, political persecutions and cultural revolution? Thanks comrade!

Yes, good governance. The CCP govt realised the mistakes made by previous leaders and altered the course of their country. In so doing, they alleviated 800 million people out of poverty (something that has never been achieved by any other country) and became the leading economic power in the world.

 

That’s good governance in anyone’s book.

[Gweiloman]

16 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

The land of hypocrites has and still is a magnet for people from all over the world to migrate to.  Can you and your American bashing friends confirm the same thing about China? 

Magnet for murderers and rapists according to your former president (or is he the current president as so many of the population thinks) as there’s virtually no law and order, guns are easily available with which to kill school children etc.

 

I know of no one with an ounce of sense that wants to go there.

[proton]

10 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Yes, good governance. The CCP govt realised the mistakes made by previous leaders and altered the course of their country. In so doing, they alleviated 800 million people out of poverty (something that has never been achieved by any other country) and became the leading economic power in the world.

 

That’s good governance in anyone’s book.

More lies, they did not take 800 million out of poverty, they just lowered the poverty level then claimed the poor were no longer poor. They invaded Tibet, invaded Vietnam then illegally took over HK. They have not learned any lessons as they still monitor and oppress their entire population who have no freedoms. Hopefully economic collapse will see off the brutal CCP dictatorship once and for all. 

[Gweiloman]

17 minutes ago, proton said:

More lies, they did not take 800 million out of poverty, they just lowered the poverty level then claimed the poor were no longer poor. They invaded Tibet, invaded Vietnam then illegally took over HK. They have not learned any lessons as they still monitor and oppress their entire population who have no freedoms. Hopefully economic collapse will see off the brutal CCP dictatorship once and for all. 

Your post is so inane that I won’t even bother to unpack it. I do suggest that you take some history lessons though.

[metisdead]

Reminder, this topic is about:

 

Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

 

Any more off topic posts and replies will be removed without notice from now. 

 

Please stay on topic. 

 

 

[Gweiloman]

54 minutes ago, metisdead said:

Reminder, this topic is about:

 

Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

 

Any more off topic posts and replies will be removed without notice from now.

 

Please stay on topic. 

The property market collapse in China, although alarming (100,000 households) is actually rather insignificant in the greater scheme of things. 100k in a country like Thailand of 70 million people is a large number. In a country of 1.4 billion, not quite as large.

 

By all accounts, China might slip into a recession, just like the rest of the world. However, as the world’s largest importer of so many goods, a recession will affect many other countries that depends on China, not just Thailand. I’m sure that many business owners around the world are hoping that China will stay strong and purchase their products.

[notrub]

Dear ezzra:  Show me one capitalist country that is doing well.  The whole world is floating to yet another recession.  It is corporate GREED that brings this on.  The kind of Govt. means little.  The money market and short selling commodities are key players in those seeking profit above all else.  Inflation?  It is the energy sector driving up costs and they have trillions of $ investment to protect.  Big Oil owns virtually every Govt. in the world.  B.O. will not stop until every drop of fossil fuel is pumped and burned.  We are headed towards Autocracies worldwide, never mind the tired arguments about Communism vs Capitalism.  It is Fascism that is on our doorstep.

[Kopitiam]

3 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

"Since 1990, China has gone from being the 4th largest exporter of immigrants to the 7th largest, an increase of more than 125%. Chinese people are immigrating in ever greater numbers, particularly the wealthy."

What do you mean?  China dropped 3 places (from 4th to 7th) being largest exporter of immigrants and they still increase by more than 125%?

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, Kopitiam said:

What do you mean?  China dropped 3 places (from 4th to 7th) being largest exporter of immigrants and they still increase by more than 125%?

Your having a hard time with this aren't you. China had 125% more citizens leave China then the previous year.  How many landed in Thailand is anyone's guess. I know of 2 that left China, though Hong Ko g and have repatriated here.  They had most of there monies tied up in the US. Now they have bought a leasehold 25 million Thb home in Phuket.

[Misty]

On 9/9/2022 at 2:53 AM, webfact said:

However, the key worry is, increasingly, the danger of a growing economic downside in China where a property market valued at twice the US national debt has already fallen by 40% threatening to deepen an already existing banking crisis. 

From the FT 29 Aug  https://on.ft.com/3U2D5o4  (article link shared with permission)

 

China’s property-driven growth model is broken

Beijing should prepare for a long and difficult economic transformation

 

"China’s property-driven growth model, which has powered the global economy for at least two decades, is looking increasingly broken. ... Local government financing vehicles — the thousands of poorly-regulated funds owned by city governments all over the country — are burdened by “hidden” debts that Goldman Sachs has estimated to total Rmb53tn ($8.2tn) — or 52 per cent of gross domestic product — at the end of 2020. ..

Beijing should prepare itself for a long and difficult economic transformation that it can no longer avoid. The world should prepare itself for the end of a four-decade era of supercharged Chinese growth. ."  (my bold)

 

[Gknrd]

12 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Undervalued stocks are cheap for various reasons.  Risk is a major factor for low values, especially for Chinese stocks.  To each his own.  At my age I don't have time to play risky games.

Couldn't have said that better.  Same here.

[Gknrd]

12 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

As a lifelong resident of the rainiest city in the USA, I prefer to visit right after the rainy season.  Our friends drive us all over Thailand to visit places, even places they have not been to before.   October and November has been ideal for us.

Thailand is pretty a pretty cool place. A few years ago I bought a truck here and traveled all over.  I have asthma so I cannot live here but love visiting from time to time.

[ericthai]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:56 AM, placnx said:

There has to be a discounted price to Chinese stocks because of the absence of the rule of law. In China it's rule BY XI's law. The stocks of the education tutoring stocks were halved overnight, for example, after a government edict.

Online tutoring in China was stopped. I know a girl in China was an online tutor and now she's looking for other work as the government stopped online tutoring. Therefore the fall in the stocks.

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

What do you mean?  China dropped 3 places (from 4th to 7th) being largest exporter of immigrants and they still increase by more than 125%?

My apologies.  I mistakenly mixed up the numbers. It should have read 7th largest....to....4th largest.  Another clarification is that the article was written in 2015, so this jump occurred over a 25 year span.  The point I was trying to make is that Chinese are fleeing their country in increasing numbers.  As Xi becomes more ruthless in silencing dissent if would seem reasonable to assume the figures haven't changed much.