Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Your having a hard time with this aren't you. China had 125% more citizens leave China then the previous year.  How many landed in Thailand is anyone's guess. I know of 2 that left China, though Hong Ko g and have repatriated here.  They had most of there monies tied up in the US. Now they have bought a leasehold 25 million Thb home in Phuket.

I corrected my error.  See my rely to Kopitiam.

[Hawaiian]

9 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

What do you mean?  China dropped 3 places (from 4th to 7th) being largest exporter of immigrants and they still increase by more than 125%?

I went back to read the rest of the ChinaFile Infographic of February 3, 2015.  Very interesting......47% of wealthy Chinese plan on leaving the country in the next 5 years compared to the worldwide average of 29% for all countries.  It goes on to give further details.

[Gknrd]

On 9/10/2022 at 8:25 PM, Gweiloman said:

In an extremely short space of time, China has alleviated 800 million people out of poverty. What a lot of posters on this thread don’t realise (primarily because of their culture) is that China is not interested in expansion of any sort. They are merely interested in growing more prosperous, both as a nation and as individuals.

 

As to surveillance and all that jazz, the average Chinese citizen can’t be bothered. Personal liberty is a western concept and plays little to no relevance to most Asians. ID cards are mandatory in a lot of Asian countries but hardly exists in the west.

Yes, 800 million. 30 years of growth. 30 years of growth which took others 100-200 years to achieve. It was basically thrust on China and China did a great job exploiting it. But, it is over.  

This subject has been in think tank discussions for years. Nothing new here.

[Gweiloman]

9 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

I went back to read the rest of the ChinaFile Infographic of February 3, 2015.  Very interesting......47% of wealthy Chinese plan on leaving the country in the next 5 years compared to the worldwide average of 29% for all countries.  It goes on to give further details.

An article from 7 years ago, hmmm. In case you didn’t realise, the world has changed a lot since then. 
 

In any case, none of your quoted stats mean anything. For eg, a recent poll in Australia stated that 42% of Australians believe that China will invade Australia soon or sometime soon. However, China has never once indicated that it will do so and there is absolutely no reason whatsoever for China to invade Australia (wouldn’t be possible in anyway). This statistic is purely the perception of some naive and gullible Aussies.
 

I asked 3 wealthy Americans I know if they intended to leave America. All 3 confirmed that they have left and are living in Thailand. Conclusion, 100% of wealthy Americans intend to leave America. See how ridiculous your claim is?

[placnx]

On 9/10/2022 at 5:44 PM, Gweiloman said:

Pelosi said the riots in HKG were a beautiful thing to see. Did she say the same about Jan 6? Double standards, as the world has come to expect of the (Dis)United States.

Pelosi is for democracy. She admires the bravery of young HK people opposing oppressive rule BY law imposed by Beijing. Admittedly, trashing the Legislative Council was excessive, but that was but one incident in a long, mostly peaceful campaign. As for January 6th, 2021, she opposes self-described militias and hangers on invading the legislature to abort a democratic process to confirm the will of the people.

 

People who are against democracy in HK typically characterize demonstrations as "riots", which are punishable under rule BY law by prison sentences. In contrast, rule OF law protects the individual from capricious edicts of the state.

[Misty]

13 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

I went back to read the rest of the ChinaFile Infographic of February 3, 2015.  Very interesting......47% of wealthy Chinese plan on leaving the country in the next 5 years compared to the worldwide average of 29% for all countries.  It goes on to give further details.

And from a 30 Aug 2022 Financial Times article (link shared with permission): https://on.ft.com/3e8SWky

 

"Crazy rich relocations: Singapore becomes a haven for Chinese elite

Beijing’s talk of ‘going after the entrepreneurs’, its draconian Covid lockdowns and a growing hostility to China from the west all make the city-state an attractive place to reside

...Now this already crazily rich city is receiving a big new dose of money — thanks to a fresh influx of tycoons from across the South China Sea. After enduring years of political crackdowns, severe Covid lockdowns, and unease about Beijing’s global reputation, many of China’s wealthiest have been packing their suits and designer dresses. And, according to wealth management professionals in Singapore, an increasing number are booking plane tickets to the city-state. Anecdotal reports indicate that well-heeled clients have been arriving in droves at Singapore’s hotels and seaside estates..."

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/9/2022 at 11:10 AM, 2baht said:

Will we see a downsizing of their military and aggressive expansionism??? ????

If they use the age old distraction of starting a war, perhaps not.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Yes, 800 million. 30 years of growth. 30 years of growth which took others 100-200 years to achieve. It was basically thrust on China and China did a great job exploiting it. But, it is over.  

This subject has been in think tank discussions for years. Nothing new here.

Indeed. They used exploited Chinese labour to get loads of foreign cash to build up the country. IMO the peasants have suffered much to allow a few at the top to prosper mightily at their expense.

Ask the factory workers living in barracks if it is worth it.

Ask the farmers evicted from their land so apartments for the rich could be built if they think it was worth it.

Ask the Uigers if it is worth it.

Ask the Tibetans if it is worth it.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/9/2022 at 7:53 AM, webfact said:

The key threat facing the kingdom and one that is still emerging is a deteriorating Chinese economy and the possibility of a shock wave created by a collapse of the Chinese property sector

Hopefully the pain will be felt by those at the top, as well as those at the bottom, but I fear not.

[placnx]

On 9/10/2022 at 10:48 PM, Kopitiam said:

This is from wikipedia:  Han Chinese (95 to 97%) are the predominating population of Taiwan July 2022.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan

That's true. What's happened is that migration from the mainland over several centuries led to intermarriage with indigenous people, many of whom self-identify as ethnic Chinese, as mentioned in the article which you cite. Today, ethnic Chinese people identify as Taiwanese, a political rather than ethnic question.

 

Again from the article, the people coming from China in 1945-50 are known as "waishengren", possibly 1.2 mn or 15% of the island's population at the time. Among the other 85%, the locals, was a certain number who were not happy to be under KMT management. As a result, martial law continued for many years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan).

 

 

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, Misty said:

And from a 30 Aug 2022 Financial Times article (link shared with permission): https://on.ft.com/3e8SWky

 

"Crazy rich relocations: Singapore becomes a haven for Chinese elite

Beijing’s talk of ‘going after the entrepreneurs’, its draconian Covid lockdowns and a growing hostility to China from the west all make the city-state an attractive place to reside

...Now this already crazily rich city is receiving a big new dose of money — thanks to a fresh influx of tycoons from across the South China Sea. After enduring years of political crackdowns, severe Covid lockdowns, and unease about Beijing’s global reputation, many of China’s wealthiest have been packing their suits and designer dresses. And, according to wealth management professionals in Singapore, an increasing number are booking plane tickets to the city-state. Anecdotal reports indicate that well-heeled clients have been arriving in droves at Singapore’s hotels and seaside estates..."

 

Although the ChinaFile Infographic was published in 2015, it gave projections 5 years out.  If anyone takes the time to read all of the graphs they will find that most of the information is still relevant.  The outflow migration has continued and is still quite high.

Financial Times also has several YouTube videos about China's financial woes including one about the massive debt incurred by its high speed rail system.  Something close to $1 trillion dollars.  That is USD and starting with a "T".

Still there are some that will argue that China has no serious financial problems.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about the Covid lockdown have been removed, this topic is about:

 

Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[moogradod]

On 9/10/2022 at 8:12 PM, Baron Samedi said:

....................................

3) I can't remember who said it but I agree with this. Showing your power in the 21th century will be to show that your system is able to bring prosperity to the many. People want security right now: it's a pretty clear trend.

How nice if this would be true. It will be maybe in the very long run. Centuries ahead maybe. Humanity should not give up.

 

But look at the situation today: There are many countries where they give a sh*t about prosperity of the many. Instead it is prosperity for a few and this might not be changing for quite some time.

And security might be "North Korea Style". Everything quiet and secure. But do you want to live that way ? It will be exactly the Chinese Way of the future I unfortunately suspect.

 

Because the basic understanding of compassion is lacking and it is difficult to acquire this attitude.

[Baron Samedi]

Huge rally of Chinese real estate developers on the HKSE. Why am I not surprised?

Look at that! The end of the world right before your eyes !!

As usual massive media BS ????

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Baron Samedi

[Artisi]

21 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Hopefully the pain will be felt by those at the top, as well as those at the bottom, but I fear not.

hopefully, the pain at the top far exceeds the pain at the bottom, but as you said - that's wishful thinking. 

[notrub]

Sorry about this-small thing.  Immigrants and immigration are about entering a different country or area.  Leaving are migrants who are migrating away from same.  Kind of like 'throw' and 'catch':  similar but different.  It is very confusing to think of China as 'exporting immigrants'.  Are they doing as in the UK?  Arresting 'immigrants' (refugees) and 'exporting' (deporting) them to Uganda?

[jacko45k]

On 9/14/2022 at 10:17 AM, notrub said:

Arresting 'immigrants' (refugees) and 'exporting' (deporting) them to Uganda?

Rwanda, or so they hope to.

[notrub]

On 9/15/2022 at 3:10 PM, jacko45k said:

Rwanda, or so they hope to.

OOPs.

 

[Hawaiian]

On 9/10/2022 at 9:41 PM, Gweiloman said:

The property market collapse in China, although alarming (100,000 households) is actually rather insignificant in the greater scheme of things. 100k in a country like Thailand of 70 million people is a large number. In a country of 1.4 billion, not quite as large.

 

By all accounts, China might slip into a recession, just like the rest of the world. However, as the world’s largest importer of so many goods, a recession will affect many other countries that depends on China, not just Thailand. I’m sure that many business owners around the world are hoping that China will stay strong and purchase their products.

China Economy reporters, Yujing Liu and Tom Hancock, have written an article for Bloomberg Businessweek (8/22/2022) about some of the problems plaguing the Chinese economy.  Much of it conflicts with what you and others have posted such as downplaying the property market collapse.  Of course, you will dismiss what they have written since it appears in a "hypocritical" American publication.

[Hawaiian]

On 9/9/2022 at 2:18 AM, fusion58 said:

That would be the greatest military blunder in the history of warfare as such an invasion would be all but strategically impossible...

 

https://youtu.be/p6sCsOdqXQw

I finally took the time to watch the video.  Let's hope Xi understands the grave risks in invading Taiwan.  The U.S. is the wild card because no one really knows how America will react.  If the U.S. get militarily involved, Japan will surely follow, and most likely the Aussies will join in.  India may take advantage of the situation and start occupying long disputed territory claimed by both countries.  Then what?

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

China Economy reporters, Yujing Liu and Tom Hancock, have written an article for Bloomberg Businessweek (8/22/2022) about some of the problems plaguing the Chinese economy.  Much of it conflicts with what you and others have posted such as downplaying the property market collapse.  Of course, you will dismiss what they have written since it appears in a "hypocritical" American publication.

The residential property market in China has not reached rigor mortis yet, but if the brilliant Xi Covid policy continues, anything is possible.

[ThailandRyan]

Sad you  @Gweiloman can't see the Chinese property market is in freefall as it collapses inward.  Good video.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DX8_MSta5vk8&ved=2ahUKEwjUsZPGnqj6AhVDJDQIHT81CCEQwqsBegQIChAF&usg=AOvVaw29SO3oeSz42pruVJP7Ztai

Edited September 22, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[Gweiloman]

12 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sad you  @Gweiloman can't see it in reality.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DX8_MSta5vk8&ved=2ahUKEwjUsZPGnqj6AhVDJDQIHT81CCEQwqsBegQIChAF&usg=AOvVaw29SO3oeSz42pruVJP7Ztai

Joe Blogs, hmmm. Tried to goggle him, no results as to his resume and expertise. I do know that he titles his videos with cheap clickbaits such as Russia economy will be wiped out for 8 years or China heading for economic collapse. Strange that no real experts share his views.

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

Joe Blogs, hmmm. Tried to goggle him, no results as to his resume and expertise. I do know that he titles his videos with cheap clickbaits such as Russia economy will be wiped out for 8 years or China heading for economic collapse. Strange that no real experts share his views.

Property downturn in China is real, however it is engineered and controlled. Xi wants to channel the investment flows from unproductive residential real estate to hard science high value added sectors.

 

The results started to surface,  this year it looks like China will overtake Germany as the second ranked car exporter by volume behind Japan. The Chinese also slowly are grabbing market share and starting to dominate the display and TV markets, threatening the market leader South Korea.

 

Thailand has nothing to fear, just a week or two the Chinese EV car giant BYD announced it is going to build a plant here, great win for Thailand.

 

https://unctad.org/news/china-rise-trade-titan

 

This year for the first time ever the combined sales of the Chinese global fortune 500 multinationals exceeded  these of every other country, including US.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Not going to bother reading one sided and propagandist stuff. Any educated and informed individual in the world today knows which is the most militarily aggressive country in the world (hint: it’s not Russia).

You truly believe yourself on this.  Your far from living in the true reality.  Chinas crippling government is also creating enough of it's own headaches based upon the Belt and Road initiative. However, some countries like Cambodia have seen the outcomes and have been scaling back on allowing China to do what it wants based upon throwing money at everyone like they have been doing.  I guess if you want to try and bribe people that works better than attacking them like Russia is doing.  Dictatorships vs. Democracies.

[metisdead]

Off topic deflection posts and replies have been removed.  This topic is about:

 

Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

Edited September 23, 2022 by metisdead

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

I wonder which one of us is living in reality and which one of us has his head buried in the sand. Are you not seeing what is happening in Thailand world around us? Soaring prices due to US led sanctions on Russia. Europe falling apart. Global South and Latin America leaning completely towards China. Solomon Islands has already cast their hand; matter of time before the rest of the Pacific Islanders follow suit. A NATO country even wants to join the SCO.

 

Democracies lol. You really think the collective west is a properly functioning democracy? Almost 50% of the American population can’t say who is their president (it’s not the orange one who can ‘think’ things into being so). The EU is planning to strip veto powers from some of their own members without having a vote on it. Look at the protests happening all over Europe due to rising costs of living. 
 

Look at how Biden, who called Saudi a pariah state and ‘promised’ to bring MBS to justice, now bending the knee to him. And Olaf is following in his footsteps lol. The world order is changing, like it or not. Or you can continue living in the alternate reality of the QAnon one where he thinks his 11,000 sq ft apartment is 3 times it’s real size lol

So the soaring prices are all because of the sanctions and have nothing to do with the 2 plus years the global economy has been suffering due to the pandemic and supply chain issues?  Your again believing your own propaganda.  Prices in Thailand are rising not because of the sanctions on Russia or China or N. Korea, prices here are rising just like all around the world.  Food prices here are increasing because there are more costs associated with growing crops and also because of the weather changes.  The real-estate market here is also continuing to bang-on with more and more building as Thailand believes folks will come and buy it.  Look at the new LTR Visa class and you can see how they are hoping it lifts the economy here.  The USD to Thb has nothing to do with anything except the fact that the US is doing something about inflation or trying to by raising interest rates, while in Thailand the BOT is scared to do the same.  The issues are global and not just because of one country as you seem to believe.  Never said I supported the Orange one or the current one in the WH.  You seem to believe in conspiracy theories of which I base my views on reality and view all news sources giving each one a middle of the road view which I verify looking elsewhere as well.  You want to believe one side it appears.  Be my guest, I however will stay in the middle area which I call the Gray Area and watch as China creates more anger amongst is people and Russia does the same.  Thailand has already turned the country backwards 20 years in my view.

[Gweiloman]

33 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So the soaring prices are all because of the sanctions and have nothing to do with the 2 plus years the global economy has been suffering due to the pandemic and supply chain issues?  Your again believing your own propaganda.  Prices in Thailand are rising not because of the sanctions on Russia or China or N. Korea, prices here are rising just like all around the world.  Food prices here are increasing because there are more costs associated with growing crops and also because of the weather changes.  The real-estate market here is also continuing to bang-on with more and more building as Thailand believes folks will come and buy it.  Look at the new LTR Visa class and you can see how they are hoping it lifts the economy here.  The USD to Thb has nothing to do with anything except the fact that the US is doing something about inflation or trying to by raising interest rates, while in Thailand the BOT is scared to do the same.  The issues are global and not just because of one country as you seem to believe.  Never said I supported the Orange one or the current one in the WH.  You seem to believe in conspiracy theories of which I base my views on reality and view all news sources giving each one a middle of the road view which I verify looking elsewhere as well.  You want to believe one side it appears.  Be my guest, I however will stay in the middle area which I call the Gray Area and watch as China creates more anger amongst is people and Russia does the same.  Thailand has already turned the country backwards 20 years in my view.

If you can’t see that rising prices are a result of soaring energy (fuel, oil, gas, electricity) costs which are primarily due to the sanctions on Russia, then there isn’t much point in discussing global economies with you. 
 

A property crisis in China and possible recession is worrying for Thailand as this will have an effect on her exports and FDI’s. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that China will emerge stronger than any other country as they have the intelligence, skills and manpower sorely lacking in many other parts of the world.

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

If you can’t see that rising prices are a result of soaring energy (fuel, oil, gas, electricity) costs which are primarily due to the sanctions on Russia, then there isn’t much point in discussing global economies with you. 
 

A property crisis in China and possible recession is worrying for Thailand as this will have an effect on her exports and FDI’s. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that China will emerge stronger than any other country as they have the intelligence, skills and manpower sorely lacking in many other parts of the world.

To this we will agree to disagree. End of....

[Hawaiian]

29 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

To this we will agree to disagree. End of....

I agree with you.  There are multiple reasons for worldwide inflation, including rising prices in Thailand. Supply chain issues caused by the pandemic created shortages which resulted in steep rises in the commodity markets.  The invasion of Ukraine which interrupted grain and fertilizer shipments also caused more  shortages and inflation.  There were already shortages before sanctions by the West.  They only created more shortages.  Simply put, there is no one single cause for this inflation.

Caveat:  Never argue with people that are always right even when they are wrong.