Australian Dollar is collapsing

[owl sees all]

28 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

It was.  But the bulk of Aussie net worth is tied up in residential housing.  It will be crashing at least 25% this year, and the following year when war kicks off with China, it will crash another 30-40%.

Can't the Ozzies see that the US are just using them? Not quite as bad as Europe where the US is actively shafting them. As the UK and Germany have found out; once you let the US get in, they can't easily got rid of.

 

Oz should be independently selling their fantastic commodities/produce around the world. In 'free' trade mode. They do now to an extent; but they are only scratching the surface. Oz has an abundance of gold, ores, gas, coal etc. And what do the authorities do with this export dosh? Waste in on what the Americans say they need, just to ease their paranoia..

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by owl sees all
added a '?'

[TimeMachine]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

You might care when you have no micro chips.

I'll care about some things but not the microchips. I'm an advocate of turning off the internet and dialing back tech. It's ruining humanity.

[owl sees all]

On 2/26/2023 at 9:34 AM, Adumbration said:

Less than a month ago when the AUD/USD pair was trading at circa 72c, I initiated a large postion in NYSE:SGOV purchasing with AUD through my IBKR account.

 

SGOV is currently yielding close to 5% with distributions paid montly.  When the Fed next meets that yield will go up.

 

Because my position is unhedged, in addition to my montly distributions, to date I have also made a gain of >5.5% on the collapse of the Aussie dollar.

 

If the AUD rallies against the USD in the near term, I intend to use more of my aussie dollars to buy more SGOV.

 

As the FED holds rates higher for longer I will gradually ladder some of my SGOV into NYSE:SHV.

 

I currently hold a good portion of my AUD in ASX:BIL.  It is currently yielding circa 3.6% with distributions paid monthly.  That will increase when the RBA meet on the first Tuesday of next month.  ASX:BIL responds to rate movements more rapidly than ASX:AAA because the later holds bank deposits while the former rolls over money market instruments on a day to day basis.  In a rapidly rising rate environment BIL has the slight edge on AAA. The converse will apply when rates start to fall.

Buy gold!

[Yellowtail]

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, owl sees all said:

Buy gold!

Interesting that Bitcoin is now rallying as well.  You know fiat currencies (including the USD) are really screwed when people are turning to crypto as a SAFE HAVEN....

 

Smart money knows regional banking in US still broken.  NYSE: IAT now down more than 45%.

[Artisi]

5 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Xi is meeting with Putin right now.  When war kicks off with China, Australia will be forced to join in by the US and will lose 80% of its export markets overnight.

 

Australian dollar is heading for <50C on the USD.

 

If you are curently living on the OAP from Australia you need to have your ducks in a row to ensure if you can survive when the exhange rate for AUD is 12 THB.

"when the exhange rate for AUD is 12 THB." suits me, can't get to that level soon enough.

[BananaStrong]

I have duffel bags filled with Auzzie or Aussie dollars and I want THB 1:1 if possible.

 

I have 20,000,000....

 

4:15 p.m.    We MUST, MUST, MUST meet before 4:16 or forget it!!!!  

 

snooze you loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooose

[Olmate]

6 minutes ago, BananaStrong said:

I have duffel bags filled with Auzzie or Aussie dollars and I want THB 1:1 if possible.

 

I have 20,000,000....

 

4:15 p.m.    We MUST, MUST, MUST meet before 4:16 or forget it!!!!  

 

snooze you loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooose

"Banana bender" I, m thinking! 

[Artisi]

35 minutes ago, Olmate said:

"Banana bender" I, m thinking! 

You might be (thinking), not sure about the one you responded to ????

[Adumbration]

Collapse picking up steam today.

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Collapse picking up steam today.

It's been much worse, yes? 

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Collapse picking up steam today.

I'm happy.  

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It's been much worse, yes? 

Oh this is just the start.  Wait till Australia is forced by America to join in a war with China.

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Oh this is just the start.  Wait till Australia is forced by America to join in a war with China.

The way the current administration is bending over for China I would not worry about that any time soon. 

[Adumbration]

Pause (soft pivot) by the criminals at the RBA this month.  AUD is done for.  

Edited April 8, 2023 by Adumbration

[Adumbration]

Collapse well and truly back on track today.

 

If the criminals at the RBA do not raise the cash rate next week the AUD is done for.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Adumbration

[gearbox]

15 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Collapse well and truly back on track today.

 

If the criminals at the RBA do not raise the cash rate next week the AUD is done for.

The short to medium term outlook for the economy is not so good. Oz is now pretty much a deindustrialized country with one of the dumbest populations in OECD. The growth path tried now is to flood the country with subjects mainly from the subcontinent in order to prop the housing Ponzi. This doesn't work well with the interest rates at the current levels, so expect rate cuts around the end of the year. However the weak dollar can also ramp the inflation further, so it is not obvious what is going to happen.

Edited April 26, 2023 by gearbox

[gearbox]

On 3/20/2023 at 5:40 PM, Adumbration said:

Oh this is just the start.  Wait till Australia is forced by America to join in a war with China.

This may be closer than many think...

 

https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war

 

If this happens expect the Aussie to test sub 15 baht per dollar.

[ozz1]

It just got a boost because interest rates were raised again so all you pessimistic people should really chill out and stop guessing what's going to happen

[Artisi]

On 4/27/2023 at 12:52 AM, gearbox said:

This may be closer than many think...

 

https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war

 

If this happens expect the Aussie to test sub 15 baht per dollar.

15 to dollar, I wish - I've got Bht I want to repatriate. 

[Olmate]

[Adumbration]

I am using this short lived rally in the AUD to buy more SGOV.

 

The Fed will raise again next week and the AUD will then continue its downward slide.

 

I have already posted this numerous times but I will again:

 

There is not a single time in all recorded economic history where inflation was brought under control until the cash rate was raised to at least the CPI print.

 

After a year of non-stop interest rates hikes inflation in Australia is still running at 7%.

 

It follows that inflation is not going away until the RBA raises the cash rate to at least 7%.  

 

I have also stated numerous times that in my opinion inflation will cool just a little moving in to the tail end of this year but will then pulse up much higher in 2025 when there is a huge spike in food prices.

 

Inflation is going to be much higher and stay for much longer than anyone in government, banking or the MSM currently expects.

 

And of course, when conflict in the South China Sea commences the AUD is absolutely toast and so is Australian residential property.

[Olmate]

13 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I am using this short lived rally in the AUD to buy more SGOV.

 

The Fed will raise again next week and the AUD will then continue its downward slide.

 

I have already posted this numerous times but I will again:

 

There is not a single time in all recorded economic history where inflation was brought under control until the cash rate was raised to at least the CPI print.

 

After a year of non-stop interest rates hikes inflation in Australia is still running at 7%.

 

It follows that inflation is not going away until the RBA raises the cash rate to at least 7%.  

 

I have also stated numerous times that in my opinion inflation will cool just a little moving in to the tail end of this year but will then pulse up much higher in 2025 when there is a huge spike in food prices.

 

Inflation is going to be much higher and stay for much longer than anyone in government, banking or the MSM currently expects.

 

And of course, when conflict in the South China Sea commences the AUD is absolutely toast and so is Australian residential property.

And your moving back to Patong????????????!! 

[Yellowtail]

30 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I am using this short lived rally in the AUD to buy more SGOV.

 

The Fed will raise again next week and the AUD will then continue its downward slide.

 

I have already posted this numerous times but I will again:

 

There is not a single time in all recorded economic history where inflation was brought under control until the cash rate was raised to at least the CPI print.

 

After a year of non-stop interest rates hikes inflation in Australia is still running at 7%.

 

It follows that inflation is not going away until the RBA raises the cash rate to at least 7%.  

 

I have also stated numerous times that in my opinion inflation will cool just a little moving in to the tail end of this year but will then pulse up much higher in 2025 when there is a huge spike in food prices.

 

Inflation is going to be much higher and stay for much longer than anyone in government, banking or the MSM currently expects.

 

And of course, when conflict in the South China Sea commences the AUD is absolutely toast and so is Australian residential property.

4% is not going to do anything. 

 

[Yellowtail]

I though this was interesting...

 

[Lacessit]

On 1/26/2023 at 6:19 PM, Adumbration said:

 

GF shagged me stupid this morning.

 

 

Thank you for defining this thread.

[ozimoron]

AUDUSD looks like it has a head and shoulders on the daily chart. That would imply a move below 62 to test the previous low.

[Lacessit]

13 hours ago, Adumbration said:

 

And of course, when conflict in the South China Sea commences the AUD is absolutely toast and so is Australian residential property.

The probability of that is extremely low.

Look at a map, it is a simple matter for either the US or India to entirely choke off trade and the flow of goods in the Malacca Strait. Or mine China's ports. It would destroy the Chinese economy, the Chinese know it. They are ten years away from getting a supply chain via Russia.

Sure, there will be some sabre rattling. That's all it will amount to.

[Lacessit]

On 4/8/2023 at 11:03 PM, Adumbration said:

Pause (soft pivot) by the criminals at the RBA this month.  AUD is done for.  

Wrong again.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-02/philip-lowe-rba-board-dinner-interest-rates/102294090

[Red Phoenix]

Yes, from a high of 25,65 THB on July 28 last year the AUD has now fallen to 22,71 THB.

That's almost 13%...