Many in Germany were bracing for a tough winter after Russia slashed supplies of gas

By Jenny Hill

BBC News, Wilhelmshaven

When Vladimir Putin switched off the gas taps to Europe, Germany more than most feared a winter of blackouts. Ministers scrambled to secure alternative supplies, painfully aware that a heavy dependence on Russian gas had left this industrial nation woefully exposed.

But fast forward a few months and, as lights sparkle in the Christmas markets, there is a sense of tentative optimism in the Glühwein spiced air. Germany's hastily assembled strategy to manage without Russian gas appears - for now - to be working.

"Energy security for this winter is guaranteed," the Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs in the German parliament on Wednesday morning.

Read more:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63709352

The rest of Europe is also doing quiet well for this winter:

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/

It comes at price. Over years germany and europe saved hundreds billions euro on importing russian gas.

Europe always had up to 1 year supply of gas in it's storage facilities. However, some countries in europe (like germany), have enormous storage facilities, the other have small ones, and 5 countries don't have any storage at all (they rely on gas stored in the neighbouring countries). 

Germany was forced to re-open coal and brown coal mines and power stations, as well as nuclear power stations. 

Those floating LNG terminals cost e1 bln each and their daily rental cost is e200 k (that is 73mln per year), and yet they have small capacity. Proper on land terminals take many years to construct.

With all technology involved their carbon footprint is 10x higher than piped gas (LNG has to be cooled to -160C to be safely transported in tankers).

And now europe is dependent on the USA gas, as they turn out to be the main exporter to europe, with output projected to be around 3x higher in comparison to the last year.

Prices of energy are 2x higher than a year ago. Gas is now 4x more expensive. Price of gas fall down recently as europe is almost full and tankers have to wait long to off load, so they are diverted to the other continents.

But from mid winter europe is contracting more LNG, at price 40% higher than the current ones. 

Italy is consuming now 10% less energy as the last year, as some industries were forced to scale down or close down production. Probably similar statistics in the other european countries.

Winter food production in greenhouses will suffer and europe will have to import from the South and tropical countries (that including from thailand). Again, at price, as air transport of fresh veggies is expensive.

Chain reaction of emergency buying by europe caused worldwide price hike and now poor countries have limited supplies. They were out priced. 

 

Campaign group Greenpeace has set out to investigate the environmental impact of the gas leaks at the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

Twenty-five activists are in the area off the island of Bornholm with a ship, rubber dinghies and an underwater drone, the organization announced on Thursday.

The activists want to take water and soil samples and document the damage to the seabed.

 

https://www.rawstory.com/greenpeace-to-investigate-environmental-impact-of-nord-stream-leaks/

2 hours ago, internationalism said:

Germany was forced to re-open coal and brown coal mines and power stations, as well as nuclear power stations. 

Oh the irony. I guess the greenies will be crying in their lentil soup.

 

Re opening nuclear power plants- it just gets better and better. Wonder what Merkel has to say about that?

 

PS. what happened to all that "renewable energy" certain people are always on about.

Russian pundits and apologists claiming Europe was going to freeze looking for another flawed prediction instead. We don’t need orc gas. Lol

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh the irony. I guess the greenies will be crying in their lentil soup.

 

Re opening nuclear power plants- it just gets better and better. Wonder what Merkel has to say about that?

 

PS. what happened to all that "renewable energy" certain people are always on about.

Here's what happened:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Renewable_energy_statistics

It's actually possible to look this stuff up. It took me less than half a minute to find it.

that article is just from yesterday and is somehow in different tone, that the original post.

 

"BERLIN -- Europe should be able to cope with the natural gas supply crunch in the coming months thanks to considerable reserves although the continent could face a bigger energy crisis next winter, the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

Fatih Birol said that, barring unforeseen events, “Europe will go through this winter with some economic and social headaches, bruises here and there” as a result of efforts to wean itself off Russian gas and the wider increase in energy costs resulting from the war in Ukraine.

“Next winter will be more difficult than this winter" he said."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/iea-chief-sees-energy-crunch-europe-winter-93922198

A post with an unattributed graph has been removed. 

Domestic gas consumption fell this year in Germany by 19%. Partly because of the governmental campaign to preserve energy for winter heating, partly partly because of high costs.

 

Bleak prospects for middle size industry in an article published 2 weeks ago under title "German industry stares into the abyss".

"... there's little hope that gas prices will drop back to their pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. While medium-term projections are blurry at best, most investors expect the price for natural gas to drop below €100 per MWh only by 2025, which remains five times higher than before the pandemic.

The longer prices remain high, the harder things get for German manufacturers and other energy-intensive industries. ...

Stehn concurred: "Once you come out of this winter, we think that storage tanks are going to be pretty low and Germany will find it much more difficult next year than this year to refill the storage tanks without significant Russian gas flows ..."

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-industry-europe-energy-prices-basf/

 

And today's article "Europe fears its industries will jet to the U.S. as energy costs force plant closures". 

They will be relocating to the USA, where energy is much cheaper, than in Europe. That means high unemployment and social unrest.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/25/1138573080/energy-costs-europe-us-companies-close-plants-eu-economy

 

 

6 hours ago, internationalism said:

Domestic gas consumption fell this year in Germany by 19%. Partly because of the governmental campaign to preserve energy for winter heating, partly partly because of high costs.

 

Bleak prospects for middle size industry in an article published 2 weeks ago under title "German industry stares into the abyss".

"... there's little hope that gas prices will drop back to their pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. While medium-term projections are blurry at best, most investors expect the price for natural gas to drop below €100 per MWh only by 2025, which remains five times higher than before the pandemic.

The longer prices remain high, the harder things get for German manufacturers and other energy-intensive industries. ...

Stehn concurred: "Once you come out of this winter, we think that storage tanks are going to be pretty low and Germany will find it much more difficult next year than this year to refill the storage tanks without significant Russian gas flows ..."

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-industry-europe-energy-prices-basf/

 

And today's article "Europe fears its industries will jet to the U.S. as energy costs force plant closures". 

They will be relocating to the USA, where energy is much cheaper, than in Europe. That means high unemployment and social unrest.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/25/1138573080/energy-costs-europe-us-companies-close-plants-eu-economy

 

 

You studiously avoid the effect of the boycott on russia. Its economy has contracted at a rate greater than 4% for the last 2 quarters. Many of the members of the Russian Federation refuse to support its war effort. China has warned Russia not to attempt to do to Kazakhstan what it's doing to Ukraine. 

On 11/24/2022 at 8:38 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

PS. what happened to all that "renewable energy" certain people are always on about.

Yea it's a sad fact that renewables were not expanded more and instead reliance on Russian gas continued. Germany could have been 100% renewable by now. There were too many naysayer dinosaurs and misinformation compaigns by the oil industry. Well, there is still a chance to reach that within a few years and there seems to be a commitment to get there by 2035: https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/

 

Currently Germany is approaching half of energy production from renewables and by 2030 the goal is 80%. It might become the worlds first major completely renewable energy economy.

 

And if done properly then it's even possible to achieve superabundance, lowering prices for energy greatly and allowing whole new industries: https://rethinkdisruption.com/europe-germany-can-reach-100-clean-energy-by-2035/

 

For all the bad things the war is bringing, I think one good thing that'll come out of it is that countries will finally see energy sovereignty as an important matter of national security.

 

On 11/25/2022 at 2:38 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh the irony. I guess the greenies will be crying in their lentil soup.

 

Re opening nuclear power plants- it just gets better and better. Wonder what Merkel has to say about that?

 

PS. what happened to all that "renewable energy" certain people are always on about.

Is it a plus for you that renewable energy has suffered because of this horrendous war?

 

This war is dooming the planet on many fronts, the environment, pollution and climate change initiatives to name just a few. All good?

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

You studiously avoid the effect of the boycott on russia. Its economy has contracted at a rate greater than 4% for the last 2 quarters. Many of the members of the Russian Federation refuse to support its war effort. China has warned Russia not to attempt to do to Kazakhstan what it's doing to Ukraine. 

That topic is about german gas, i have extended it to german economy which is now switched to expensive american LNG. I gave an example of an italian case and extrapolated it to the other european countries, including germany. After that i found figure for german gas consumption - appear to be 9% lower, than italian. 
 

But stretching that topic to russia, china, kazakhstan and effects of sanctions on russian economy is far fetched. 

Following thoughts are simply my opinion:

 

So the USA regime change at UA may be paying big dividends to the USA.  Add all those suggested/forced RU sanction all you NATO/UK/EU lapdogs agreed to, and the profits to USA should be rolling in for decades.

 

Y'all didn't see that coming ... OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE

Ignorance is Bliss ... for some.

 

I think a Win Win all around for USA.  Take out UA as a world arms supplier & force RU to become the boogie man ... once again ... ????

39 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Following thoughts are simply my opinion:

 

So the USA regime change at UA may be paying big dividends to the USA.  Add all those suggested/forced RU sanction all you NATO/UK/EU lapdogs agreed to, and the profits to USA should be rolling in for decades.

 

Y'all didn't see that coming ... OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE

Ignorance is Bliss ... for some.

 

I think a Win Win all around for USA.  Take out UA as a world arms supplier & force RU to become the boogie man ... once again ... ????

So the USA regime change at UA

 

Fortunately opinions and facts are not the same thing. 

I think german renewable are put on hold. They are reopening some 20 coal power stations. There is one case where they are going to destroy wind farm in order to expand nearby coal mine. 
Re-opening them is cheaper than doing facilities from scratch. 
Even doing proper on land LNG terminal takes on average 10 years and huge investment. That provisional LNG terminals done in record 200 days are very expensive to build and expensive to maintain. 
Being a pioneer in some field means  they are risking taking unknown problems.
They have closed down labour intensive coal mines to have cheap russian gas, with just investment in 2 nord streams with low operation costs. Still, one pipe of  nord stream 2 can be readily opened on germany technical approval. Apparently it wasnt blown up by those, who earlier threathen to shut it by any means. 

But political orders from brussel and from washington prevent it. At least for now. 
But they might take a stance against that orders, when there would be change of political leadership in germany. 
The usa for now is pushing down european economy to make  fast profits and also increase their own competitive edge. But how far they can go, as europe is their biggest political and military ally. 
And how strong will be europe's pushback against the usa dictate. 

8 minutes ago, internationalism said:

I think german renewable are put on hold. They are reopening some 20 coal power stations. There is one case where they are going to destroy wind farm in order to expand nearby coal mine. 
Re-opening them is cheaper than doing facilities from scratch. 
Being a pioneer in some field means  they are risking taking unknown problems. They have closed down labour intensive coal mines to have cheap russian gas, with just investment in 2 nord streams with low operation costs. Still, one pipe of  nord stream 2 can be readily opened on germany technical approval. Apparently it wasnt blown up by those, who earlier threathen to shut it by any means. 

But political orders from brussel and from washington prevent it. At least for now. 
But they might take a stance against that orders, when there would be change of political leadership in germany. 

No, reopening them isn't cheaper than doing facilties from scratch. It's just faster to reactivate existent facilities than to build new ones . Even before the price in the spike of coal, when coal and gas were inexpensive, building a new solar or wind facility was as cheap as or cheaper than just running an existing coal plant. This is based on the levelized cost of energy. That is what would the average cost of energy be over the lifetime of  a facility when all costs are factored in.  Now, of course, given the high cost of coal and gas, there's no contest. 

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

No, reopening them isn't cheaper than doing facilties from scratch. It's just faster to reactivate existent facilities than to build new ones . Even before the price in the spike of coal, when coal and gas were inexpensive, building a new solar or wind facility was as cheap as or cheaper than just running an existing coal plant. This is based on the levelized cost of energy. That is what would the average cost of energy be over the lifetime of  a facility when all costs are factored in.  Now, of course, given the high cost of coal and gas, there's no contest. 

https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/

Yet now they are reopening 20 coal power stations and mines, demolishing wind farm to make space for them. 
That means they are limiting their budget for renewables. 
Problem is, that there is not sunshine     winter time for half year, that's when energy is the most needed. 
Wind doesnt blow all the time. 
And droughts, as this year case in europe, makes hydropower stations unusable. 
Electric energy cant be stored, has to be made constantly. 
When there is no surplus of energy, as now in germany, they are going for sure solution of reopening mothballed facilities and they would last for many years. 
That is clear change of their energy policies. They are taking many factors in consideration. 

5 minutes ago, internationalism said:

Yet now they are reopening 20 coal power stations and mines, demolishing wind farm to make space for them. 
That means they are limiting their budget for renewables. 
Problem is, that there is not sunshine     winter time for half year, that's when energy is the most needed. 
Wind doesnt blow all the time. 
And droughts, as this year case in europe, makes hydropower stations unusable. 
Electric energy cant be stored, has to be made constantly. 
When there is no surplus of energy, as now in germany, they are going for sure solution of reopening mothballed facilities and they would last for many years. 
That is clear change of their energy policies. They are taking many factors in consideration. 

Mostly, you're just repeating the cliches of renewable opponents. And you're citing one special case of a solar energy facility being torn down. They are not taking many factors into consideration. It's the Ukraine war that's driving this policy. In fact, because of the Ukraine war Germany has upped the amount of renewables it's planning for the future.

Stop making things up.

On 11/25/2022 at 2:38 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh the irony. I guess the greenies will be crying in their lentil soup.

 

Re opening nuclear power plants- it just gets better and better. Wonder what Merkel has to say about that?

 

PS. what happened to all that "renewable energy" certain people are always on about.

That"s fake news, no Nuclear Power Plants are reopened. The last three running Plants have got an extension to operate till April next year only.

57 minutes ago, UWEB said:

That"s fake news, no Nuclear Power Plants are reopened. The last three running Plants have got an extension to operate till April next year only.

Take it up with internationalism. He was the one that made that claim. I was just commenting on it.

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Take it up with internationalism. He was the one that made that claim. I was just commenting on it.

You accepted it as a fact so you own it.

6 hours ago, internationalism said:

Yet now they are reopening 20 coal power stations and mines, demolishing wind farm to make space for them. 
That means they are limiting their budget for renewables. 
Problem is, that there is not sunshine     winter time for half year, that's when energy is the most needed. 
Wind doesnt blow all the time. 
And droughts, as this year case in europe, makes hydropower stations unusable. 
Electric energy cant be stored, has to be made constantly

So much wrong in this...

 

1. There is *one* *mine* which will be slightly expanded. You made it sound like they are flattening a wind farm to put there 20 coal power plants which is nonsense. A total of 8 wind turbines are dismantled. But guess what? They are building even more wind turbines elsewhere and solar on top. Much more. 500MW more. And do you think the dismantled turbines will be just thrown into a bin? No, they will of course re-use them elsewhere so in reality they are just moved. First part of moving is dismantling but people for some reason like to stop the thought there.

 

2. They are not limiting their budget for renewables due to that. How is that connected and clearly it's wrong (see 1.).

 

3. Even in Winter there is sunshine. Germany is not northern Sweden or something.

 

4. Wind doesn't blow all the time? Well duh. But it blows often enough and they build these farms in places which have wind currents most of the time due to natural temperature differentials. And if you build enough wind farms in different places you are pretty much guaranteed to have wind at all times.

 

5. Most hydropower stations last summer were running just fine. Glaciers still melt in summer. Also they are used for...

 

6. Energy storage. It's a real thing and actually trivial.

 

 

Running your whole economy on renewables takes a bit of engineering and planning. I know a certain country that is actually pretty decent at engineering and has a sizeable wind turbine and solar industry. Hm what was their name again? Ah yes, Germany ????

Fake news really, they filled up the reserves with Russian gas. Winter 2023/24 is gonna be the cruncher.  

20 minutes ago, nausea said:

Fake news really, they filled up the reserves with Russian gas. Winter 2023/24 is gonna be the cruncher.  

Which part of it is fake news then? 

 

Norway, Western Europe's largest petroleum producer, this year boosted its gas exports to take advantage of record prices and help Europe replace some of the volumes lost when Russia curbed supplies.

"Norway delivers as much gas as possible to Germany," Stoere told a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

 

Germany also receives natural gas via pipelines from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium. Over the weekend, Germany expects to sign contracts for the delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United Arab Emirates.

 

France's energy regulator CRE said natural gas exports to Germany could start in October. Construction on one of Germany's new LNG terminals is also set to begin this week.

 

 

BERLIN, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Germany is building up its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities and its terminals will be able to supply European neighbours as well from 2023, said Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a trip to Athens on Thursday.

 

 

Germany will begin operation of two temporary terminals for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by early 2023

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Which part of it is fake news then? 

We'll see, winter 2022/23. I have no axe to grind here. I'm from the UK, it's in my interest to believe your stuff. Personally, I would hope for the best and plan for the worst. LNG is gonna deindustrialise Europe, you can't pay 4 times the price for energy and keep your competitive advantage. As for Olaf Scholz and the rest, if you believe what these guys say, I have a bridge to sell you. 555.

10 minutes ago, nausea said:

We'll see, winter 2022/23. I have no axe to grind here. I'm from the UK, it's in my interest to believe your stuff. Personally, I would hope for the best and plan for the worst. LNG is gonna deindustrialise Europe, you can't pay 4 times the price for energy and keep your competitive advantage. As for Olaf Scholz and the rest, if you believe what these guys say, I have a bridge to sell you. 555.

Its not my stuff, its facts, you can see we'll see for just about any future event in the world, very weak response. In future quote my full post and don't take it out of context as it contained the links to directly dispute your unfounded claim.

20 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Germany will begin operation of two temporary terminals for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by early 2023

That beside the one well functional terminal in Hamburg - not really for LNG but not so small - Papa Scholz sold to Onkel Xi at his recent 11-hours state visit to Peking.  

Germany has allocated 200bln on renewables, plus 70bln for LNG, coal mines etc.

 

I think those 8bln spend by Norwey went to Baltic Pipeline. Norway has already made an additional 40bln sale in 2022 (in comparison to 2021) and likely to increase every year.

 

So there are losers, like germany, and winners, like norway.

 

"European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel.

The 792-billion-euro total compares with 706 billion euros in Bruegel’s last assessment in November, as countries continue through winter to face the fallout from Russia cutting off most of its gas deliveries to Europe in 2022.

Germany topped the spending chart, allocating nearly 270 billion euros – a sum that eclipsed all other countries. Britain, Italy and France were the next highest, although each spent less than 150 billion euros"

https://tienphongnews.com/europes-spend-on-energy-crisis-nears-800-billion-euros-302403.html