Foreign tourism is Thailand’s only hope in 2023 as exports dim with hard times seen in key markets

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, cardinalblue said:

The baht is weak at 36 but RT airfare for next year is 2 -3 times of a pre covid ticket so coming to thailand for $2-3k a RT ticket worth it? 
 

any cost savings disappear in international airfare….

Agreed.  And airlines make it tougher on both frequent and occasional flyers by reducing point values on many international flights.  I just returned from R-T to NYC to find reduction points—from previous trips 19,000 points to about 6500 points this time—less incentive to fly international.

[Ratchsima]

18 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? 

 

There are enough numbers of rich Thai to sustain the name brand luxury goods bususiness and they are even growing and expanding.

 

Every weekend , Did you even see long queue in front of Hermes , LV , Channel in Siam Paragon , Icon Siam , Emporium , or even Hermes At Central Phuket.??

If not you are blind.?

 

You are just not in this circle and keep imagining things.

 

[NeoDinosaw]

On 11/28/2022 at 5:53 PM, shackleton said:

They want to make their minds up on what type of tourist they to attract to Thailand 

One minute it's Families who will spend a lot of money on hotels travelling sight seeing restaurants and so on 

Or is it young people who want to spend their time in clubs bars  drinking until the early hours of morning and chasing the young girls ???????? 

I  think they want both !

[spidermike007]

16 hours ago, Elkski said:

We got under 800 rt la BKK recently. 1 stop Japan.  ANA via United.  However Delta and many were charging high fares and all over the place.  In 6 years and 12 trips I have never flown non stop.  don't really see many of those flights from the West coast or they are to HISO for me.  Hotels seemed to be charging 2019 prices.   Rising COVID cases are a concern for travel for sure could mess up a visit. 

Im feeling the 8% + drop in USD to bht.  It was 38.4 I saw once but now like 35.8 for every 1000$ that's  less 8 massages or most of a  fun night out lost.  

And why are hotels getting away with their felonious behavior? Because weak Americans are paying whatever they are asking! If people just said no, this is ridiculous, proves would drop. A friend was quoted $900 a nite in a Four Seasons hotel she has paid $350 for, for 8 years now. Inflation in the US is stupid. Another friend who has a place in Monaco and London, said he recently visited NY, and LA, and could not believe how expensive things were. Far higher than in Monaco.

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, Ratchsima said:

There are enough numbers of rich Thai to sustain the name brand luxury goods bususiness and they are even growing and expanding.

 

Every weekend , Did you even see long queue in front of Hermes , LV , Channel in Siam Paragon , Icon Siam , Emporium , or even Hermes At Central Phuket.??

If not you are blind.?

 

You are just not in this circle and keep imagining things.

 

Sorry, I am clinically blind. I miss these things. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by spidermike007

[NeoDinosaw]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:19 AM, BritScot said:

I found it a pain and after 8 years at the house I built and with a yellow property book in my name having to report like someone on parole never mind the annual duplication of paper work with stupid photos of the family standing outside the house and sitting on the bed. Compare that to the UK.... chalk and cheese.

Perhaps the UK needs to adopt some of Thailand's procedures

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Sorry, I am clinically blind. I miss these things. 

The majority in those lines are only looking loos. They never buy just look and take photos for their social media posts to act like they have. I see this whenever we shop at Gucci, Prada, or LV.  Michael Korrs is what they can afford not the high end.

[Cake Monster]

On 11/29/2022 at 9:33 AM, nigelforbes said:

The total value of all expat financial activity in Thailand has been estimated to be  equal to less than 4% of GDP, that includes all the 800K baht in the bank and average spending at that level. That means if every expat in the country left tomorrow, Thai GDP would shrink by only 4%. Adding new visa's aint going to do the trick, no matter how highly expats regard themselves and their spending power.

Very true !

Expat money in Thailand is but a pimple on an Elephants rear end.

The True GDP drivers are Exports, Manufacturing, Agri and Tourism

All of which are due for a slide in 2023 / 4

[nigelforbes]

13 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Very true !

Expat money in Thailand is but a pimple on an Elephants rear end.

The True GDP drivers are Exports, Manufacturing, Agri and Tourism

All of which are due for a slide in 2023 / 4

And put so eloquently too, a pimple on an elephants rear end. ????

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The majority in those lines are only looking loos. They never buy just look and take photos for their social media posts to act like they have. I see this whenever we shop at Gucci, Prada, or LV.  Michael Korrs is what they can afford not the high end.

Likely spot on. The designer boutiques here are for show. Many of these high end lines have multiple boutiques around the world which lose money. No doubt few here make a profit. 

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Likely spot on. The designer boutiques here are for show. Many of these high end lines have multiple boutiques around the world which lose money. No doubt few here make a profit. 

Exactly, and when they ask the salesman/sales lady the price you know that is a true sign they can not afford it.  As the old adage goes "If you have to ask the price, then you really can not afford it".  There is no haggling on prices, and as we have seen and paid for items, the prices have increased quite a bit I noticed from the last purchase made to the current purchase made, which makes it a deal for reselling and making money if you want to play that game by buying the items that are limited.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/walterloeb/2022/02/21/luxury-brand-prices-rise-sharply--will-it-cut-demand/

the increases  are between 6% and 7%, Purse Bop estimates the increase is about 4% for lower priced bags but 15%-18% for higher priced purses.

 

So as I said if you have to ask the price you can not afford it and the looky loos just want to look like they are Hi-So.  The Korean Shoppers come to spend money as do the Indians, so when you see them in one of the Hi-end shops you know they are buying. I have never observed a Thai buying anything in the shops, many have fake bags and the staff just rolls there eyes when they come in acting like they are Hi-So.

Edited November 30, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

I  think they want both !

And from anywhere!

[bangon04]

China will save us....... one way or the other.....

[BritScot]

7 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

Perhaps the UK needs to adopt some of Thailand's procedures

I think the uk isn't perfect. Legal immigrants are treated like human beings and set paths are available for all plus you are not required to report or have 6 vehicles full of police and immigration police turn up at your door at 8am to check you live at the same address you have lived at for 8 years, have a property book for. There is a big however, I'm very envious of thailand on how they deal with illegal immigrants and have been known to just take someone to the border and send them on their way.

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Exactly, and when they ask the salesman/sales lady the price you know that is a true sign they can not afford it.  As the old adage goes "If you have to ask the price, then you really can not afford it".  There is no haggling on prices, and as we have seen and paid for items, the prices have increased quite a bit I noticed from the last purchase made to the current purchase made, which makes it a deal for reselling and making money if you want to play that game by buying the items that are limited.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/walterloeb/2022/02/21/luxury-brand-prices-rise-sharply--will-it-cut-demand/

the increases  are between 6% and 7%, Purse Bop estimates the increase is about 4% for lower priced bags but 15%-18% for higher priced purses.

 

So as I said if you have to ask the price you can not afford it and the looky loos just want to look like they are Hi-So.  The Korean Shoppers come to spend money as do the Indians, so when you see them in one of the Hi-end shops you know they are buying. I have never observed a Thai buying anything in the shops, many have fake bags and the staff just rolls there eyes when they come in acting like they are Hi-So.

The Koreans can buy the same bag in Seoul for $4,500, that is available here for $12,000. And the Indians that can afford these bags, fly to Singapore and buy them for 65% less. Very few buy luxury goods here. 

[GinBoy2]

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The Koreans can buy the same bag in Seoul for $4,500, that is available here for $12,000. And the Indians that can afford these bags, fly to Singapore and buy them for 65% less. Very few buy luxury goods here. 

I never found Thailand cheap for any luxury goods regardless of the FX.

 

My wife just flew back to Thailand for a vacation, and took with her two Gucci bags for friends. Both of which cost 50% of what it would have cost them in Siam Paragon.

 

Now they can parade around displaying their Gucci on the cheap!

 

.....although it's not cheap it's all insane, never quite got the female obsession with bags

[kinyara]

The 24 million non-Chinese element of that tourist forecast for 2023 equates to 83% of non-Chinese tourists achieved in 2019, against the current and anticipated global economic backdrop going into next year that seems simply too optimistic. I'd be surprised if tourist numbers which have been increasing 100k a month in the last 3 months to circa 1.5 million November will be strong enough to even hit the required 2 million a month by Jan/Feb before starting to decline. The first monthly drop and when and at what level it occurs will be the key barometer for 2023.  The changing mix already being experienced will also factor in regardless of the numbers.

 

Glad I don't have an account with Siam Commercial Bank if this is the quality of output of their Economic Intelligence Center.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by kinyara
edit