Thai Baht set to continue strengthening as Asian economies to benefit from China’s reopening

[webfact]

 

By Thanaphum Charoensombatpanich

Thai Baht, which in October was trading at around 38 to the US Dollar has strengthened to 34 to the US$, and the Thai currency is likely to continue to see strengthening going into 2023 as the Thai economy continues to recover and China’s reopening to help sustain recessionary fears from the west.

 

The Thai Baht has benefited from the surge in domestic economy as Thailand opened its doors to foreign tourists on July 1st, 2022, and the currency has benefited from the weakening US Dollar that has seen the US Federal Reserve starting to slow the rate hikes that it has undertaken aggressively during 2022.

 

“After being lackluster in the past 2 years, the Thai Baht looks set to outperform in Asia FX in 2023 as it receives a further bump in tourist arrivals due to reopening of China’s borders,” Heng Koon How, head of market strategy at United Overseas Bank (UOB), said in a note to clients.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/47303/thai-baht-likely-to-continue-to-strengthen-as-asian-economies-could-benefit-from-chinas-reopening/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2023-01-06

 

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[whiteman]

just in time to rip off the high season's travelers 

[gt162]

Unfortunately, Thai Baht is still bulletproof.

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 1:28 AM, gt162 said:

Unfortunately, Thai Baht is still bulletproof.

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It's been vaccinated and wears a mask you see, it's perfectly safe.

[ezzra]

But how dose all that help us here where commodities and consumer products are steadily going up in price as we speak?...

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 1:47 AM, ezzra said:

But how dose all that help us here where commodities and consumer products are steadily going up in price as we speak?...

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Not much really, inflation is a different slice of the economic picture.

[mikebell]

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

[jacko45k]

  On 1/6/2023 at 2:05 AM, mikebell said:

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

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Yes, a country in crisis... and when the Chinese money pours into Thailand, you will only see a lower rate Baht for Sterling. Quite a slide since mid-December. 

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 2:05 AM, mikebell said:

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

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And nobody anywhere sees any good news on that horizon.

[ikke1959]

Good to hear and read that the Thai economy is going so well.. But in the past weeks there were several opposite articles as well.. Ok no problem as we live in a country that only produce news that will look good ... but as everyone hoorays over the strong THB there is another side and that is not inflation. Expats and retirees get salaries and pensions from their country. They will get less THB and can spend less and with the ongoing inflation and the policy for double pricing for foreigners, it is not good for the economy at all. Besides, the eport will be less too as articles are more expensive because of the THB. Result will be as the Chinese tourists don't come in the expected numbers, and other tourists don't come again because of the Covid rules again, the economy will be going down much more than they are aware of. Don't forget that airplane tickets are already much higher because of the war in Ukraine and climate and airport taxes. People will always come to Thailand, but with a too expensive THB and all other costs and regulations, people will choose a holiday destination nearby or with less paperworks

[nigelforbes]

There is an optimal desirable level of USD/THB from almost everyone's perspective , 32 keep exporters happy, makes exports attractive and prices imports sensibly. 

 

Unfortunately, expats don't see things the same way.

[ThailandRyan]

Chinese have not even started to arrive and travel en-mass yet the speculation of them doing so strengthens the baht, go figure.

[jacko45k]

  On 1/6/2023 at 3:44 AM, ThailandRyan said:

Chinese have not even started to arrive and travel en-mass yet the speculation of them doing so strengthens the baht, go figure.

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Yes... people will buy the currency based on what is  going to happen and be ahead of the movements. Although I expected the recent vaccine requirements, etc to bring the baht back a bit. Even the normally timid markets aren't believing that will happen!

[ikke1959]

  On 1/6/2023 at 3:17 AM, nigelforbes said:

There is an optimal desirable level of USD/THB from almost everyone's perspective , 32 keep exporters happy, makes exports attractive and prices imports sensibly. 

 

Unfortunately, expats don't see things the same way.

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can give an example please or explain??

 

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 4:38 AM, ikke1959 said:

can give an example please or explain??

 

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Export bills are settled in USD hence the exchange rate USD/THB is vitally important to exporters.  Too strong and nobody wants to buy, too weak and exporters can't make profit.

[ThailandRyan]

  On 1/6/2023 at 4:10 AM, jacko45k said:

Yes... people will buy the currency based on what is  going to happen and be ahead of the movements. Although I expected the recent vaccine requirements, etc to bring the baht back a bit. Even the normally timid markets aren't believing that will happen!

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Looks like 32 thb to $1 USD will be coming sooner rather than later....glad I already transfered my money for my kitchen remodeling and they are doing the work now.

[ikke1959]

  On 1/6/2023 at 5:05 AM, nigelforbes said:

Export bills are settled in USD hence the exchange rate USD/THB is vitally important to exporters.  Too strong and nobody wants to buy, too weak and exporters can't make profit.

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so if I have to pay 10.000 THB in USD I pay for a rate at 36 totally 277 USD and with a rate of 34  totally 294 USD.. exporter is happy but not me. Be honest in THB you calculate with THB to USD and not USD to THB.....

[engamann]

Just the junta boys that need a strong baht for the rest of the coorupt money them have stold from the Thai people the last 9 years and now gonna send it out of the country before loose the power inn May.

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 6:21 AM, ikke1959 said:

so if I have to pay 10.000 THB in USD I pay for a rate at 36 totally 277 USD and with a rate of 34  totally 294 USD.. exporter is happy but not me. Be honest in THB you calculate with THB to USD and not USD to THB.....

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I don't understand what you wrote or intended in the second part of that.

 

The Thai exporter markets their product in Baht but the transaction is settled in USD. As you say, if the ex. rate is one way, one person wins, if it's the other they lose, there is therefore an optimum rate where both parties are happy, that was the point I tried to make in my original post. The only thing that's missing is the fact that the Thai exporter has to sell the USD he has earned from the sale, back to the BOT where the currency is added to foreign currency reserves. The rate on that exchange has to be favorable to the exporter.

 

On the other side of the coin, imports are also paid for in USD, oil is a prime example. USD at 38 makes oil very very expensive, at 29 it's dirt cheap but that rate kills Thai exporters. Once again, there's an optimal exchange rate that satisfies all parties.

[thailand49]

All I know when a leader says the baht too weak it gets stronger.

Then you got Baht is too strong then it gets weaker.

Thai economist 101????

[ikke1959]

  On 1/6/2023 at 7:04 AM, nigelforbes said:

I don't understand what you wrote or intended in the second part of that.

 

The Thai exporter markets their product in Baht but the transaction is settled in USD. As you say, if the ex. rate is one way, one person wins, if it's the other they lose, there is therefore an optimum rate where both parties are happy, that was the point I tried to make in my original post. The only thing that's missing is the fact that the Thai exporter has to sell the USD he has earned from the sale, back to the BOT where the currency is added to foreign currency reserves. The rate on that exchange has to be favorable to the exporter.

 

On the other side of the coin, imports are also paid for in USD, oil is a prime example. USD at 38 makes oil very very expensive, at 29 it's dirt cheap but that rate kills Thai exporters. Once again, there's an optimal exchange rate that satisfies all parties.

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ifyou are an exporter you receive USD and you have to change them in THB and with a strong THB you get less almost every day.. you don't understand that? And I as an importer of your Thai goods have to pay more USD for the same product... Who is benefitting? tell me please. I don't tralk about big international businesses and the oil and energy business... That is totally different.. No I just talk about a Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller for example...As an importer I go and look cheaper options maybe different countries who can deliver the same for less..Nobody is benefitting of a too expensive currency.. Result is that prices only are going up and result in devaluation of the currency..Than all parties are satisfied..At this moment not many people are satisfied with the overvalued THB 

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 9:07 AM, ikke1959 said:

ifyou are an exporter you receive USD and you have to change them in THB and with a strong THB you get less almost every day.. you don't understand that? And I as an importer of your Thai goods have to pay more USD for the same product... Who is benefitting? tell me please. I don't tralk about big international businesses and the oil and energy business... That is totally different.. No I just talk about a Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller for example...As an importer I go and look cheaper options maybe different countries who can deliver the same for less..Nobody is benefitting of a too expensive currency.. Result is that prices only are going up and result in devaluation of the currency..Than all parties are satisfied..At this moment not many people are satisfied with the overvalued THB 

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Importers can buy from whoever they chose, if they don't like the price they go elsewhere because once the deal is done, they have to pay.

 

BUT, the Thai exporter can sit on their USD for years if need be, or they can now chose to invest the USD overseas before repatriating it. Many now will sit on the USD/invest it, until the rate swings into their favour once again. BOT changed those rules specifically to help prevent the Baht from strengthening too much, previously, exporters had to exchange it into THB within one year and couldn't invest overseas. But let's be clear, Thai exports average around USD 24 billion every month, we're not talking about "Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller", we're talking a much much larger scale.

[ikke1959]

  On 1/6/2023 at 9:21 AM, nigelforbes said:

Importers can buy from whoever they chose, if they don't like the price they go elsewhere because once the deal is done, they have to pay.

 

BUT, the Thai exporter can sit on their USD for years if need be, or they can now chose to invest the USD overseas before repatriating it. Many now will sit on the USD/invest it, until the rate swings into their favour once again. BOT changed those rules specifically to help prevent the Baht from strengthening too much, previously, exporters had to exchange it into THB within one year and couldn't invest overseas. But let's be clear, Thai exports average around USD 24 billion every month, we're not talking about "Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller", we're talking a much much larger scale.

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your country, your view, your opninion.... The big money will be always in benefit...But how about expats and retirees who get less money to spend every month.. They contribute more than the internationals who only benefit the rich and super rich...But again your country.. And a lot of people know that superrich and rich are changing their THB in USD because when the THB will collapse they will profit again.. Everybody happy

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 9:26 AM, ikke1959 said:

your country, your view, your opninion.... The big money will be always in benefit...But how about expats and retirees who get less money to spend every month.. They contribute more than the internationals who only benefit the rich and super rich...But again your country.. And a lot of people know that superrich and rich are changing their THB in USD because when the THB will collapse they will profit again.. Everybody happy

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You're a funny guy!

 

Pre-1997, THB was pegged to USD at 25, after the crash it sank to 50. In early 2000, Bangkok was only a fraction of what it is today, the transformation has been amazing to witness. Currency collapse? Quite the opposite! I expect to see THB/USD back at 25 within 10 years, all things being equal and so do the markets.

 

Yes of course there are issues with foreign pensioners and expats but those things are hardly Thailand's concern. And of course there are issues with the uber rich, most countries have similar. 

[RichardColeman]

  On 1/6/2023 at 2:05 AM, mikebell said:

Meanwhile the UK pound continues to plummet.

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Depending on the baht / pound, I tend to send 59-62,000 a month (baht rate dependant) , I think I can absorb some fluctuation.  However, If my usual amount start getting iffy, then alot here are going to be 7/11 all their meals and living in a one room / 1 toilet apartment !  But I guess that dodgy room here is better than the cardboard box back home

[Mac Mickmanus]

  On 1/6/2023 at 1:38 PM, RichardColeman said:

Depending on the baht / pound, I tend to send 59-62,000 a month (baht rate dependant) , I think I can absorb some fluctuation.  However, If my usual amount start getting iffy, then alot here are going to be 7/11 all their meals and living in a one room / 1 toilet apartment !  But I guess that dodgy room here is better than the cardboard box back home

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Rental rates in the UK are increasing 

[The Theory]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:46 AM, webfact said:

in October was trading at around 38 to the US Dollar

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Still that is the true rate. 
 

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:46 AM, webfact said:

Thai economy continues to recover and China’s reopening to help sustain recessionary fears from the west.

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Really !!! ????????

[nigelforbes]

  On 1/6/2023 at 2:28 PM, The Theory said:

Still that is the true rate. 
 

Really !!! ????????

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Perhaps on your planet but not here on Earth.

[Purdey]

Seems that punters could buy US dollars and wait for the baht to weaken again. 

However, the continued reliance by Thailand on tourism is not the way forward. 

 

[hotchilli]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:46 AM, webfact said:

Thai Baht, which in October was trading at around 38 to the US Dollar has strengthened to 34 to the US$, and the Thai currency is likely to continue to see strengthening going into 2023 as the Thai economy continues to recover and China’s reopening to help sustain recessionary fears from the west.

Expand  

The teflon coated baht...