Nikki Haley launches presidential campaign, challenging Trump for GOP nomination

[Hanaguma]

50 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

That's horrible.  So she'll only get right wing women then.

Because it is not true.  See above.  

[ozimoron]

A Washington Examiner analysis, however, quoted voices optimistic about Haley’s chances, believing she holds appeal with Republicans tired of “firebrand” candidates.

 

translation: no chance in hell of getting the GOP nomination. 

 

https://www.allsides.com/story/politics-can-nikki-haley-win-republican-presidential-nomination

Edited February 15, 2023 by ozimoron

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

This is not true.

 

Haley was governor until 2017.  As governor, she signed a law limiting abortion after 19 weeks. Which as I am sure you know is a very mainstream position on the issue. Not radical in the slightest.  

 

The measure you are talking about was passed YEARS after she left the governorship. 

My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

[ozimoron]

Nikki Haley presidential run would sink DeSantis and hand Trump victory – poll

 

As the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley prepares to announce a run for president, a new poll found that just one additional candidate in the 2024 Republican primary will be enough to split the vote and keep Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis, his only current close rival.

 

But Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, an anti-Trump conservative website, recently wrote: “Presumably the numerous candidates gearing up to run in the GOP primary understand that a fractured field benefits Donald Trump.

 

“Are we sure they understand that they’d need to coalesce around a frontrunner by February 2024 to avoid the same scenario that gave us Trump in 2016?”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/09/nikki-haley-presidential-run-ron-desantis-donald-trump-poll

 

 

[Hanaguma]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

I've done worse myself.   No problem!     But I do think she brings some good things to the table.  Executive experience from being governor, international from being at the UN, solid family background.  No hint of personal scandal (that would be refreshing). 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Hanaguma said:

I've done worse myself.   No problem!     But I do think she brings some good things to the table.  Executive experience from being governor, international from being at the UN, solid family background.  No hint of personal scandal (that would be refreshing). 

That may all be true.  But she's still going to have to contend with the abortion issue given that she wrote this:

 

"Former Governor Nikki Haley said the overturn of Roe v. Wade is a win for pro-life and puts the debate back where it belongs, at the state level.

"This is a historic win for the pro-life movement. It’s an even bigger win for the American people."

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2022/06/24/sc-political-leaders-react-roe-v-wade-overturned/7722156001/

 

That rationale didn't play well in the midterms and there's no reason to believe that it will in 2024.

[Hanaguma]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

Nikki Haley presidential run would sink DeSantis and hand Trump victory – poll

 

As the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley prepares to announce a run for president, a new poll found that just one additional candidate in the 2024 Republican primary will be enough to split the vote and keep Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis, his only current close rival.

 

But Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, an anti-Trump conservative website, recently wrote: “Presumably the numerous candidates gearing up to run in the GOP primary understand that a fractured field benefits Donald Trump.

 

“Are we sure they understand that they’d need to coalesce around a frontrunner by February 2024 to avoid the same scenario that gave us Trump in 2016?”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/09/nikki-haley-presidential-run-ron-desantis-donald-trump-poll

 

 

I don't think there will be quite as many candidates this time around.  Perhaps 7 or 8 at most.   I could see Christie, Sununu (for sure), Pompeo, perhaps Noem.  DeSantis I have mixed feelings about.  Personally I think he needs a bit more seasoning before taking his shot, but his poll numbers must be making it awful tempting...

[Hanaguma]

Just now, placeholder said:

That may all be true.  But she's still going to have to contend with the abortion issue given that she wrote this:

 

"Former Governor Nikki Haley said the overturn of Roe v. Wade is a win for pro-life and puts the debate back where it belongs, at the state level.

"This is a historic win for the pro-life movement. It’s an even bigger win for the American people."

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2022/06/24/sc-political-leaders-react-roe-v-wade-overturned/7722156001/

 

That rationale didn't play well in the midterms and there's no reason to believe that it will in 2024.

By 2024 most states will have figured out their positions on it, so there won't be the fear factor that there was last year.  Her position is relatively moderate, and if she can "out" democrats as being radical pr0-abortionists then I don't think it will matter so much.

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

I don't think there will be quite as many candidates this time around.  Perhaps 7 or 8 at most.   I could see Christie, Sununu (for sure), Pompeo, perhaps Noem.  DeSantis I have mixed feelings about.  Personally I think he needs a bit more seasoning before taking his shot, but his poll numbers must be making it awful tempting...

One of the articles I posted claimed that any more than 2 candidates would ensure Trump won, as he did last time on well below 50%. This is the major problem with first past the post voting systems. Right wingers love them but sometimes they come back to bite them.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

By 2024 most states will have figured out their positions on it, so there won't be the fear factor that there was last year.  Her position is relatively moderate, and if she can "out" democrats as being radical pr0-abortionists then I don't think it will matter so much.

What makes you think her position is relatively moderate? You think that supporting the Supreme Court decision to abolish Roe v Wade is considered moderate by the majority of Americans, particularly women? You think the horror stories about critical care being denied women because of harsh antiabortion laws are not going to surface big time during the election?

[Hanaguma]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What makes you think her position is relatively moderate? You think that supporting the Supreme Court decision to abolish Roe v Wade is considered moderate by the majority of Americans, particularly women? You think the horror stories about critical care being denied women because of harsh antiabortion laws are not going to surface big time during the election?

Her position is moderate because very few Americans either favor 100% restrictions or 100% availability.

 

A restriction at the 20 week mark, as was done in her state, is quite common.

 

Most Americans actually didn't understand either Roe v Wade, or the ramifications of it being struck down. Lots of fearmongering made low information voters assume that it meant the complete outlawing of abortion, which was not true.  So as  I said, once the details get hammered out at the state level, it will be a lot clearer. 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Her position is moderate because very few Americans either favor 100% restrictions or 100% availability.

 

A restriction at the 20 week mark, as was done in her state, is quite common.

 

Most Americans actually didn't understand either Roe v Wade, or the ramifications of it being struck down. Lots of fearmongering made low information voters assume that it meant the complete outlawing of abortion, which was not true.  So as  I said, once the details get hammered out at the state level, it will be a lot clearer. 

The GOP was heavily punished in the mid terms by suburban women who did not buy the idea that pro lifers are even close to moderate. Pro lifers are never in favor of abortion at any time, save for a small number who support it in cases of rape and incest. Abortion was the main reason for republicans losing bigly. 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

You are really living in a surreal fantasy. If Trump were to win in 2024, the world would not end. Neither would "American democracy", whatever you mean by that. Trump is term limited. His own party would react rather negatively if he were to try and keep power.  You actually believe that the country would sit back and acquiese to Emperor Donald the First?  Sorry but the system is far stronger than that. 

 

Unless you mean something else by "fatal blow to American democracy". Care to elaborate?

Trump did tried to weaken democracy during his term. He attacked the press, admired dictators, lied to the people for selfish purposes and schemed to overturn legitimate election results. Fortunately the guardrails of democracy held and institutions designed to check autocracy were intact. If he win in 2024, he will be emboldened. Will the guardrails hold the next time?  

[Hanaguma]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The GOP was heavily punished in the mid terms by suburban women who did not buy the idea that pro lifers are even close to moderate. Pro lifers are never in favor of abortion at any time, save for a small number who support it in cases of rape and incest. Abortion was the main reason for republicans losing bigly. 

I agree completely. The timing to cancel Roe was terrible, and too many eager legislators at the state level made it even worse.  But that won't be the case in 2024.  The messaging has to be much better, and also the pro life side has to pin down the pro abortion people on exactly what they are in favor of.  Because a majority of Americans DO in fact favor some restrictions. 

[Hanaguma]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

Trump did tried to weaken democracy during his term. He attacked the press, admired dictators, lied to the people for selfish purposes and schemed to overturn legitimate election results. Fortunately the guardrails of democracy held and institutions designed to check autocracy were intact. If he win in 2024, he will be emboldened. Will the guardrails hold the next time?  

...and it all failed, didn't it? That should tell you something. The Constitution is strong and has faced bigger challenges than Trump. The system of checks and balances proved tough. 

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Her position is moderate because very few Americans either favor 100% restrictions or 100% availability.

 

A restriction at the 20 week mark, as was done in her state, is quite common.

 

Most Americans actually didn't understand either Roe v Wade, or the ramifications of it being struck down. Lots of fearmongering made low information voters assume that it meant the complete outlawing of abortion, which was not true.  So as  I said, once the details get hammered out at the state level, it will be a lot clearer. 

Wishful thinking much? Any evidence that the attitudes of Americans, particularly younger Americans, who will be voting in increasing numbers, have softened their attitude about Roe v Wade? 

 

Most Americans say overturning Roe was politically motivated, NPR/Ipsos poll finds

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/22/1150628013/roe-v-wade-50-years-dobbs-ipsos-poll-abortion-legal-public-opinion-supreme-court

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

I agree completely. The timing to cancel Roe was terrible, and too many eager legislators at the state level made it even worse.  But that won't be the case in 2024.  The messaging has to be much better, and also the pro life side has to pin down the pro abortion people on exactly what they are in favor of.  Because a majority of Americans DO in fact favor some restrictions. 

Most people do in fact favor some restrictions as you say. However, I think it's fair to say most pro lifers favor no exceptions and certainly not time based exceptions. . 

[Hanaguma]

Like the article said, there is a lot of confusion among people. Only about 1 in 4 favor completely unrestricted abortion, and that number would probably fall if you drilled down a bit.  Given another year plus things hopefully will become more settled. States can have referenda, vote, whatever they want. 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

10 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

...and it all failed, didn't it? That should tell you something. The Constitution is strong and has faced bigger challenges than Trump. The system of checks and balances proved tough. 

A concern is that he had been so inept and obvious in its motivations to stay in power - did it in a half assed way -  but STILL a big chunk of the population support him. Odd this human nature thing. 

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Like the article said, there is a lot of confusion among people. Only about 1 in 4 favor completely unrestricted abortion, and that number would probably fall if you drilled down a bit.  Given another year plus things hopefully will become more settled. States can have referenda, vote, whatever they want. 

Logically, I'd say that the number favoring unrestricted abortion is rising with more liberal attitudes in society and especially because religiosity is falling in the US. 

[Eric Loh]

24 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

...and it all failed, didn't it? That should tell you something. The Constitution is strong and has faced bigger challenges than Trump. The system of checks and balances proved tough. 

To be clear of Trump's damages to the constitution and democracy and will do that again if he win in 2024. Trump threatened the very existence of the constitutional democracy with his election subversion, delayed the transfer of power for weeks and refusing to acknowledge defeat. The country can't risk another attempts to attack democracy by Trump ever again. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Eric Loh
wrong word

[Hanaguma]

6 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

To be clear of Trump's damages to the constitution and democracy and will do that again if he win in 2024. Trump threatened the very existence of the constitutional democracy with his election subversion, delayed the transfer of power for weeks and refusing to acknowledge defeat. The country can't risk another attempts to attack democracy by Trump ever again. 

...except that it didn't. The inauguration took place as scheduled, Congress ratified the vote in a timely manner. The courts rightly threw out his challenges. 

 

How was the transfer of power delayed? 

 

Refusing to acknowledge defeat is standard in politics on both sides. 

[Old Croc]

8 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

I like Nikki- she has a compelling story, but still Mike Pompeo has the best CV for the job so far:

 

Military veteran, Harvard law, successful businessman, Member of Congress, CIA Director, Secretary of State.

 

What's not to love about the guy?

Pompeo violated ethics rules, State Dept. watchdog finds | The Hill

[expat_4_life]

8 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

I like Nikki- she has a compelling story, but still Mike Pompeo has the best CV for the job so far:

 

Military veteran, Harvard law, successful businessman, Member of Congress, CIA Director, Secretary of State.

 

What's not to love about the guy?

Only thing I can say about Nikki is I don't know much about her.

Pompeo on the surface does have an impressive resume - but he's a hard no for me due to his scheming to have Julian Assange kidnapped or assassinated.

https://news.yahoo.com/kidnapping-assassination-and-a-london-shoot-out-inside-the-ci-as-secret-war-plans-against-wiki-leaks-090057786.html

Edited February 15, 2023 by expat_4_life

[billd766]

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Too far from the grifter to be nominated.

To close to the grifter to win in the general. 

 

Next ...

Good for her.

 

The more that stand against him the greater chance that he will self destruct and hopefully take the whole gop down with him.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Her position is moderate because very few Americans either favor 100% restrictions or 100% availability.

 

A restriction at the 20 week mark, as was done in her state, is quite common.

 

Most Americans actually didn't understand either Roe v Wade, or the ramifications of it being struck down. Lots of fearmongering made low information voters assume that it meant the complete outlawing of abortion, which was not true.  So as  I said, once the details get hammered out at the state level, it will be a lot clearer. 

What details are being hammered out? I don't see much evidence of that. And I doubt there will be given the fanatical anti-abortion stance of large numbers of Republican voters. The same cruel laws that condemn women with failed pregnancies to endure unnecessary suffering for a feature of these laws... Not a bug.

She's going to have a hard time defending that.

Edited February 15, 2023 by placeholder

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Curious, who would be on your short list of acceptable candidates for the GOP? 

 

If/when Joe gets underbussed, I could tolerate Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Wes Moore...

Only one I know enough to care about would be De Santis, and the fact Trump is trying to sabotage him leads me to believe he has a good chance.

 

As for Haley, so insignificant that I wonder if she even has a base.

[Eric Loh]

Kind of own goal when she called for competency test for politicians over 75. Will anger Trump as well as the older Republican voters. 

https://original.newsbreak.com/@eden-reports-1601258/2926594267089-they-re-too-old-gop-challenger-takes-a-swipe-at-biden-trump-with-call-for-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75

[bamnutsak]

MTG wieghed in...

 

 

[Credo]

3 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Kind of own goal when she called for competency test for politicians over 75. Will anger Trump as well as the older Republican voters. 

https://original.newsbreak.com/@eden-reports-1601258/2926594267089-they-re-too-old-gop-challenger-takes-a-swipe-at-biden-trump-with-call-for-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75

I think competency should be lowered to anyone over 26 and should include a full psychological work up, and it should be done before they get their name on any ballot.