Paetongtarn to be Pheu Thai party’s candidate for PM

[Artisi]

8 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Indeed it would. ????

As always 

[Henryford]

35 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

As I understand it, any any opposition, be it one party or a coalition of parties would have to have 376 seats to outvote the Senate and be able to form a government. The party which is supported by, appointed by and will shortly reappoint the Senate needs 126. 

 

Not really gerrymandered, much.

 

Of course if any party or group looks like getting anywhere near 376, then the full panoply of election law and commissions will be deployed...

What would happen if Pheu got say 350 votes, a majority in the house but Prayut was voted PM as you outline above. Would he form a minority Government?

[OneMoreFarang]

10 hours ago, still kicking said:

On 2/27/2023 at 6:41 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

I think the saddest part about this is that millions of Thais will vote for her full well knowing that her criminal father will be the one who tells her what to do.

And it is obviously not only her. Wifes and children and relatives from well-known politicians get votes for being related to politician x. Qualifications? Who cares.

But then again in Thailand, and not only in Thailand, it seems in some circles it is a lot more important from which family you come and not so much about how qualified people are.

It's sad and happens all over the world.

Nonsense 

Which part is "Nonsense"?

Which of my statements is not true?

[Artisi]

32 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Which part is "Nonsense"?

Which of my statements is not true?

Don't worry too much, the poster seems to have just arrived in Thailand, that's assuming they are even here ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

[herfiehandbag]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

What would happen if Pheu got say 350 votes, a majority in the house but Prayut was voted PM as you outline above. Would he form a minority Government?

Well mathematically, Prayut would have the remaining 150 seats, plus the Senate weighing in with 250, so 400 votes to 350. Job done!

 

I would be surprised if it got that far - once Pheu Thai or any likely coalition looked like getting over 250 seats lots of carefully planted skeletons in various closets will to everyone's surprise be discovered, and the long winded process of eliminating the majority will begin. If it becomes too big a problem then party dissolution is, in extremis, the "nuclear option ".

 

Whatever, we can rest assured that there is no way short of physical defeat that this regime is going to relinquish control.

 

Might cause some trouble on the streets though!

Edited February 28, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[Eric Loh]

13 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Well mathematically, Prayut would have the remaining 150 seats, plus the Senate weighing in with 250, so 400 votes to 350. Job done!

 

Might cause some trouble on the streets though!

Prayut target 100 seats and that target is an unhill task even with the likely defections from PPRP to UTN. UTN strong chance will be in Chonburi and the South where he seem to be popular but will not be a cake walk with the traditional well entrenched Democrat, Bhumjai Thai and PPRP challenging for seats. Forget about Bangkok which has the most constituency seats  (33) as Prayut's popularity has weakened. So far only the UTN has branches and representatives in all the 77 provinces where they can field election candidates. They are spreading themselves too thin in terms of focus, resources and funds. I wouldn't be surpise that he cant even win 25 seats to be nominate as prime minister candidate. My opinion. 

[herfiehandbag]

57 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Prayut target 100 seats and that target is an unhill task even with the likely defections from PPRP to UTN. UTN strong chance will be in Chonburi and the South where he seem to be popular but will not be a cake walk with the traditional well entrenched Democrat, Bhumjai Thai and PPRP challenging for seats. Forget about Bangkok which has the most constituency seats  (33) as Prayut's popularity has weakened. So far only the UTN has branches and representatives in all the 77 provinces where they can field election candidates. They are spreading themselves too thin in terms of focus, resources and funds. I wouldn't be surpised that he cant even win 25 seats to be nominate as prime minister candidate. My opinion. 

You are a seasoned observer Eric, and your predictions and opinions are always worth considering. However, with the Senate behind him, a little help from friends in the courts and other agencies allied with the time granted by the glacial result confirmation process, he may well be able to build a coalition to get back in. After all, whereas many politicians may see such a result as an emphatic rejection, this fellow and the regime he heads up don't really care what the electorate think. A lot of effort has been expended over the last decade to construct a system which allows for and overcomes such a defeat.

Edited February 28, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[scorecard]

6 hours ago, khaowong1 said:

I was going to say, we really need a business man to run the country, but oops.  That was Thaksin.  

Who turned it into his own 'company', ordering banks to give loans to dubious borrowers and more. 

[khaowong1]

8 hours ago, scorecard said:

Who turned it into his own 'company', ordering banks to give loans to dubious borrowers and more. 

I remember.  

[zzaa09]

11 hours ago, Artisi said:

Don't worry too much, the poster seems to have just arrived in Thailand, that's assuming they are even here ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

What might be more disconcerting are the long-timers that still haven't a clue....

Never mind the idealistic newbies. 

[Henryford]

23 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Well mathematically, Prayut would have the remaining 150 seats, plus the Senate weighing in with 250, so 400 votes to 350. Job done!

 

I would be surprised if it got that far - once Pheu Thai or any likely coalition looked like getting over 250 seats lots of carefully planted skeletons in various closets will to everyone's surprise be discovered, and the long winded process of eliminating the majority will begin. If it becomes too big a problem then party dissolution is, in extremis, the "nuclear option ".

 

Whatever, we can rest assured that there is no way short of physical defeat that this regime is going to relinquish control.

 

Might cause some trouble on the streets though!

So the Senate counts as seats in the Government? I assumed the Government was run by the majority Party in the lower house (as in most countries). Again i don't understand it.

[herfiehandbag]

22 minutes ago, Henryford said:

So the Senate counts as seats in the Government? I assumed the Government was run by the majority Party in the lower house (as in most countries). Again i don't understand it.

The government which emerged from the 2014 coup was acutely aware of two things. Firstly their coup was the third "Army led intervention" to remove a Thaksin led (in person or by proxy) government in the first fourteen years of the current century, and public acceptance of such coups was waning. Secondly, as soon as the opportunity was offered after a coup or other "intervention" the people immediately re-elected a "Thaksin" government. He was, over a sustained period the repeated and clear choice of the Thai people. A choice which represented a rejection of and existential threat to the power and wealth cabal of the various interest groups which had previously governed the country, principal amongst these groups was the military hierarchy.

 

So something had to be done. The solution - a new constitution under which a 250 member appointed Senate votes along with a 500 member elected Parliament, to select the Prime Minister who then forms the cabinet. The appointed Senate is effectively controlled by the military, indeed it is largely drawn from the military hierarchy or their nominees.

 

This means that the arithmetic to which I referred means that for a government opposed to the current regime to come to power, they would have to muster 376 votes in the combined houses - not impossible, but given that the Senate is "spoken for", it would require an absolute landslide majority in the elected Parliament.

 

By this means the regime expected to be able to stay in power indefinitely, yet maintain the facade of "democratic elections".

 

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, herfiehandbag said:

The government which emerged from the 2014 coup was acutely aware of two things. Firstly their coup was the third "Army led intervention" to remove a Thaksin led (in person or by proxy) government in the first fourteen years of the current century, and public acceptance of such coups was waning. Secondly, as soon as the opportunity was offered after a coup or other "intervention" the people immediately re-elected a "Thaksin" government. He was, over a sustained period the repeated and clear choice of the Thai people. A choice which represented a rejection of and existential threat to the power and wealth cabal of the various interest groups which had previously governed the country, principal amongst these groups was the military hierarchy.

 

So something had to be done. The solution - a new constitution under which a 250 member appointed Senate votes along with a 500 member elected Parliament, to select the Prime Minister who then forms the cabinet. The appointed Senate is effectively controlled by the military, indeed it is largely drawn from the military hierarchy or their nominees.

 

This means that the arithmetic to which I referred means that for a government opposed to the current regime to come to power, they would have to muster 376 votes in the combined houses - not impossible, but given that the Senate is "spoken for", it would require an absolute landslide majority in the elected Parliament.

 

By this means the regime expected to be able to stay in power indefinitely, yet maintain the facade of "democratic elections".

 

Yes, expect more of the same well into the future - unless there is a major intervention and then expect more of the same well into the future.

[zzaa09]

6 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The government which emerged from the 2014 coup was acutely aware of two things. Firstly their coup was the third "Army led intervention" to remove a Thaksin led (in person or by proxy) government in the first fourteen years of the current century, and public acceptance of such coups was waning. Secondly, as soon as the opportunity was offered after a coup or other "intervention" the people immediately re-elected a "Thaksin" government. He was, over a sustained period the repeated and clear choice of the Thai people. A choice which represented a rejection of and existential threat to the power and wealth cabal of the various interest groups which had previously governed the country, principal amongst these groups was the military hierarchy.

 

So something had to be done. The solution - a new constitution under which a 250 member appointed Senate votes along with a 500 member elected Parliament, to select the Prime Minister who then forms the cabinet. The appointed Senate is effectively controlled by the military, indeed it is largely drawn from the military hierarchy or their nominees.

 

This means that the arithmetic to which I referred means that for a government opposed to the current regime to come to power, they would have to muster 376 votes in the combined houses - not impossible, but given that the Senate is "spoken for", it would require an absolute landslide majority in the elected Parliament.

 

By this means the regime expected to be able to stay in power indefinitely, yet maintain the facade of "democratic elections".

 

Less we forget or ignore the realities that all of these unsavoury and dubious activities are required to be signed off on, permitted and blessed by a supreme influential entity. 

[zzaa09]

5 hours ago, Artisi said:

Yes, expect more of the same well into the future - unless there is a major intervention and then expect more of the same well into the future.

The only practical intervention might be a full on people's rebellion. 

Though......don't hold your breath.