Military exercises suggest China is getting ‘ready to launch a war against Taiwan,’ island’s foreign minister tells CNN

[Seppius]

 

Trumps thoughts about China are very interesting in this short part of his last interview

 

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6324651091112

[rabas]

12 hours ago, chacha boom said:

Here's a summary of the history of China and Taiwan over the last 1,000 years:

 

10th-13th centuries: Taiwan remains largely unexplored and underdeveloped, inhabited primarily by indigenous Austronesian peoples with minimal contact with mainland China.

 

13th century: Chinese fishermen and merchants begin to establish settlements along the coastal regions of Taiwan, but no formal government administration is set up.

 

Late 14th century: Ming dynasty establishes control over the island of Taiwan, mostly in the coastal areas.

 

1624: The Dutch East India Company establishes a trading post in southwestern Taiwan, beginning a period of Dutch colonization.

 

1662: Ming loyalist and military leader, Koxinga (Zheng Chenggong), expels the Dutch and establishes the Kingdom of Tungning, with the hope of using Taiwan as a base to launch a campaign against the Qing dynasty in mainland China.

 

1683: The Qing dynasty conquers Taiwan, incorporating it as a part of Fujian province.

 

1895: Following the First Sino-Japanese War, China cedes Taiwan to Japan as part of the Treaty of Shimonoseki.

 

1945: Japan surrenders at the end of World War II, and the Republic of China (ROC), led by Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) party, assumes control of Taiwan.

 

1949: The Chinese Civil War ends with the Communist Party of China, led by Mao Zedong, establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT retreat to Taiwan, where they establish the ROC government-in-exile.

Best summary yet against CCP claims that Taiwan 'belongs' to mainland China.  Even the Great Northern and Southern Song dynasties had little to do with Taiwan. You do know that the Qing (Manchu) are from Manchuria not China and are not ethnic Chinese like the Han. 

 

[billd766]

17 hours ago, riclag said:

Well said !  Thanks for sticking up for Earth as we know it!

If I were a teacher I would grade the 

war mongers a D-  in negotiations efforts.

And how would you grade Russia?

[John Drake]

Conditions probably favor a PRC attack on Taiwan within the next year or so. The West is caught up in Ukraine and scheduled arms deliveries to Taiwan haven't yet happened. For those of us in Thailand, it makes for serious thought. No doubt Thailand will side with China against the US. The only question is will they do it openly, as they did when they declared war as Japanese allies in World War II, or will they do it through feigned neutrality that actually favors China. Does that mean those of us from the US, UK, Australia are held as enemy aliens (first scenario) or more likely just kicked out per China's orders (second scenario)?

Edited April 16, 2023 by John Drake

[John Drake]

China threatens Filipinos working in Taiwan.

 

Quote

This, Huang said, if the Philippines cared for the 150,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Taiwan. “The Taiwan question is entirely China’s internal affair, as is the Mindanao issue to the Philippines. You will never allow any third party to meddle with resolving rebel issues in Mindanao,” Huang said on Raffy Tima's report on "24 Oras". "Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ‘Taiwan Independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the US access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs,” he added.     https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/866978/china-to-ph-oppose-taiwan-independence-than-offer-us-access-to-bases-if-you-care-for-150k-ofws/story/

 

[talahtnut]

On 4/12/2023 at 4:09 PM, placeholder said:

I guess when you aggressively act as though the South China Sea is a Chinese lake,

The Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and

a series of other international documents confirm the

historical fact that Taiwan belongs to China,

and also clearly indicate that there is no dispute in

the international community over China's territorial

sovereignty over Taiwan.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, John Drake said:

Conditions probably favor a PRC attack on Taiwan within the next year or so. The West is caught up in Ukraine and scheduled arms deliveries to Taiwan haven't yet happened. For those of us in Thailand, it makes for serious thought. No doubt Thailand will side with China against the US. The only question is will they do it openly, as they did when they declared war as Japanese allies in World War II, or will they do it through feigned neutrality that actually favors China. Does that mean those of us from the US, UK, Australia are held as enemy aliens (first scenario) or more likely just kicked out per China's orders (second scenario)?

Japan invaded Thailand and instead of Thailand fighting a hopeless battle against the Japanese, it defacto surrendered. What makes you think that China would invade Thailand? Why would Thailand cut itself off from so much trade with the West? How exactly would this "feigned neutrality" manifest itself? Kicking out Westerners? More melodrama from you.

[tonbridgebrit]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:36 PM, placeholder said:

Well, for one thing, Taiwan Semiconductor is probably the most advanced chipmaker in the world. So keeping that capability from China is worth it. Especially given the dark turn that Chinese governance has taken with the ascent of Xi.

 

9 hours ago, rabas said:

Lets say, for argument, that Britain's survival depended on some resource from some far away friendly nation. Never mind what, such dependencies are common nowadays. Knowing this, an antagonistic  foreign power invades said friendly country to halt export of said resource to Britain, thus endangering it's survival.

Would you then send troops far away to defend Britain?

That is exactly the situation for the free world, Taiwan, and China because of Taiwan's IC manufacturing dominance, where IC technology and even IC manufacturing technology is driven by the West and the US in particular. Also note that the Taiwan strait is a massively strategic trade route for Western bound goods and resources.

An attack on Taiwan is a direct call to war and has little to do with dubious CCP claims that Taiwan historically 'belongs' to mainland China, which it doesn't.

So, we're now talking about Taiwan having technology products, or other products, valuable stuff that they export to Britain and the rest of the world ?

And, we're suppose to fight a war to defend Taiwan, to make sure our imports of whatever valuble stuff are safe ?

This is sounding like a repeat of oil in previous decades. As in, oil is valuable, we'ill fight a war to defend the oil we're importing. We're not risking our soldiers so that whatever foreigners will have whatever benefits or freedom.  And, and, is it because Ukraine has no oil, it has no valuable products, that why we're not sending our soldiers to fight and die for Ukraine ?  Is that the case ?

Look, if Taiwan did have vital technology for export, how about tell Taiwan to relocate their production centre to California ?  That way, it will be safe.  And how important is Taiwan economically to us ?  The USA, Britain, and Europe, imports massively more goods from China than from Taiwan.  Taiwan is a small fish compared to China.

How important are China's goods in America, Britain, and Europe ?  Well, let's put it this way. Put up sanctions against Russia because of Ukraine. China and India are lessening the impact of sanctions, because they're still buying Russian oil.  How about boycotting Chinese goods ?  China is, after all, buying Russian oil, China is (supposedly) the enemy.  Sanctions against China's cheap manufactured goods ?  It's laughable. Putting sanctions on Russian oil and gas is already very painful, putting sanctions on China will make it even more painfull. It's not going to happen. That's how badly China's goods are needed in America, Britain and Europe.     ????

[tonbridgebrit]

5 hours ago, talahtnut said:

The Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and

a series of other international documents confirm the

historical fact that Taiwan belongs to China,

and also clearly indicate that there is no dispute in

the international community over China's territorial

sovereignty over Taiwan.

And I add to that.
The USA has a Chinese Embassy, not a Taiwan one. And in London, there is a Chinese Embassy, no Taiwan Embassy. Therefore, I don't recognise Taiwan as a country.

Every country on earth has the freedom and option to have a Peoples' Republic of China Embassy, or, or an embassy from 'Republic of China, Taiwan' .  Very few countries choose Taiwan rather than China.

China can have only one embassy in any or all countries.  China must never have two embassies in any country in the world. There's no way I would accept two Chinese embassies in London.   ????

[tonbridgebrit]

9 hours ago, rabas said:

Best summary yet against CCP claims that Taiwan 'belongs' to mainland China.  Even the Great Northern and Southern Song dynasties had little to do with Taiwan. You do know that the Qing (Manchu) are from Manchuria not China and are not ethnic Chinese like the Han. 

 

It doesn't matter that we/you reckon that China's claim on Taiwan is reasonable or not. The important thing is this. A load of Han Chinese want to fight another load of Han Chinese. And we're going to allow our soldiers to die, just to stop Han Chinese fighting Han Chinese ?

And a load of Qing (or Ching) want to rule over a load of Han. Well, let them. Why should British or American soldiers die to save a load of Han ? Let the Han defend themselves. It's their problem, let them deal with it.  Qing against Han, Han against Han, what difference does it make ?  It's the same.

Bit like the modern-day Babylonians fighting against todays Persians. Let them do it, what's it got to do with America ?    ????

[tonbridgebrit]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Japan invaded Thailand and instead of Thailand fighting a hopeless battle against the Japanese, it defacto surrendered. What makes you think that China would invade Thailand? Why would Thailand cut itself off from so much trade with the West? How exactly would this "feigned neutrality" manifest itself? Kicking out Westerners? More melodrama from you.

And indeed, why would anybody think that China would invade Thailand ?  China invading Thailand would make no sense.  Thailand is not a part of China, it never has been. And China has never claimed that Thailand is part of China. China has no reason to invade Thailand, that's why it's not going to happen.

Now Taiwan, that's a different kettle of fish. Taiwan is part of China, or it use to be. Well, China reckons so. That's why Beijing wants Taiwan's soil. Beijing wants ownership of something that it's been claiming since, since 1949.

[talahtnut]

5 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

That's why Beijing wants Taiwan's soil. Beijing wants ownership of something that it's been claiming since, since 1949.

Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times.

The earliest references to this effect dates back to the year 230.

From the 12th century onwards, the imperial central governments

of China all set up administrative bodies to exercise jurisdiction

over Penghu and Taiwan. In 1885, the Qing court upgraded

Taiwan’s status and made Taiwan a full province, when it then

became the 20th province of China.

[heybruce]

9 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

 

So, we're now talking about Taiwan having technology products, or other products, valuable stuff that they export to Britain and the rest of the world ?

And, we're suppose to fight a war to defend Taiwan, to make sure our imports of whatever valuble stuff are safe ?

This is sounding like a repeat of oil in previous decades. As in, oil is valuable, we'ill fight a war to defend the oil we're importing. We're not risking our soldiers so that whatever foreigners will have whatever benefits or freedom.  And, and, is it because Ukraine has no oil, it has no valuable products, that why we're not sending our soldiers to fight and die for Ukraine ?  Is that the case ?

Look, if Taiwan did have vital technology for export, how about tell Taiwan to relocate their production centre to California ?  That way, it will be safe.  And how important is Taiwan economically to us ?  The USA, Britain, and Europe, imports massively more goods from China than from Taiwan.  Taiwan is a small fish compared to China.

How important are China's goods in America, Britain, and Europe ?  Well, let's put it this way. Put up sanctions against Russia because of Ukraine. China and India are lessening the impact of sanctions, because they're still buying Russian oil.  How about boycotting Chinese goods ?  China is, after all, buying Russian oil, China is (supposedly) the enemy.  Sanctions against China's cheap manufactured goods ?  It's laughable. Putting sanctions on Russian oil and gas is already very painful, putting sanctions on China will make it even more painfull. It's not going to happen. That's how badly China's goods are needed in America, Britain and Europe.     ????

"Look, if Taiwan did have vital technology for export, how about tell Taiwan to relocate their production centre to California ?  That way, it will be safe.  And how important is Taiwan economically to us ?  The USA, Britain, and Europe, imports massively more goods from China than from Taiwan.  Taiwan is a small fish compared to China."

 

You could do a little research and answer your own questions. 

 

"In dominating the fabrication of the most advanced semiconductors, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) has captured a technology that’s crucial to the cutting-edge digital devices and weapons of today and tomorrow. TSMC accounts for more than 90% of global output of these chips, according to industry estimates."  https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

 

State of the art microprocessor manufacturing plants take tens of billions of dollars and many years to build.  Once built a huge technically capable work force must be recruited and trained.  Such building is taking place in the US and Europe, but by the time it is complete the facilities in Taiwan will have had years to advance their manufacturing abilities to a new level.

 

How important is all this to the world?  Important enough to throw the entire world into a major economic depression, with anarchy and chaos breaking out around the world.  It that important enough?

[eisfeld]

13 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times.

The earliest references to this effect dates back to the year 230.

From the 12th century onwards, the imperial central governments

of China all set up administrative bodies to exercise jurisdiction

over Penghu and Taiwan. In 1885, the Qing court upgraded

Taiwan’s status and made Taiwan a full province, when it then

became the 20th province of China.

Let's pay attention to what people a few hundred years ago did and ignore what the people currently living in Taiwan want. While at it, let's recreate the Soviet Union and a few southern american countries could be declared provinces of Portugal again. Ah the good old times!

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times.

The earliest references to this effect dates back to the year 230.

From the 12th century onwards, the imperial central governments

of China all set up administrative bodies to exercise jurisdiction

over Penghu and Taiwan. In 1885, the Qing court upgraded

Taiwan’s status and made Taiwan a full province, when it then

became the 20th province of China.

Do you expect us to just take your word for it?

"When the Dutch East India Company arrived in Taiwan in 1624, they found no traces of any administration by the Ming Dynasty, which ruled China from 1368 through 1644. In fact, the Dutch – who had established a small fortress in the Pescadores in 1622 – were told by the Ming Tianqi Emperor that they should “go beyond our territory,” so the Dutch moved to what was then called Formosa, and ruled the island for 38 years, establishing the first administrative structure on Taiwan. Thus, it certainly was never part of the Ming Dynasty."

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/has-taiwan-always-been-part-of-china/

[talahtnut]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Do you expect us to just take your word for it?

"When the Dutch East India Company arrived in Taiwan in 1624, they found no traces of any administration by the Ming Dynasty, which ruled China from 1368 through 1644. In fact, the Dutch – who had established a small fortress in the Pescadores in 1622 – were told by the Ming Tianqi Emperor that they should “go beyond our territory,” so the Dutch moved to what was then called Formosa, and ruled the island for 38 years, establishing the first administrative structure on Taiwan. Thus, it certainly was never part of the Ming Dynasty."

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/has-taiwan-always-been-part-of-china/

You've been reading an American magazine publication,

thats the version of history you would expect:  'Pompeo

deserves thanks for countering those narratives, and

for looking at Taiwan in its own right and its own light.'

Yeah, trust Fatty Pompeo, or any member of the establishment

to propagandise anti-China sentiment. There are two classes

of people, Those that hate China, and Those that have been there.

 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

You've been reading an American magazine publication,

thats the version of history you would expect:  'Pompeo

deserves thanks for countering those narratives, and

for looking at Taiwan in its own right and its own light.'

Yeah, trust Fatty Pompeo, or any member of the establishment

to propagandise anti-China sentiment. There are two classes

of people, Those that hate China, and Those that have been there.

 

 

I cited a source with links. If you think it's not credible report it to the mods. Or you can provide your own link to a credible source. I'm certainly not going to take your word for it.

From the landing page of the World News Forum

Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source.

[tonbridgebrit]

16 hours ago, heybruce said:

"Look, if Taiwan did have vital technology for export, how about tell Taiwan to relocate their production centre to California ?  That way, it will be safe.  And how important is Taiwan economically to us ?  The USA, Britain, and Europe, imports massively more goods from China than from Taiwan.  Taiwan is a small fish compared to China."

 

You could do a little research and answer your own questions. 

 

"In dominating the fabrication of the most advanced semiconductors, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) has captured a technology that’s crucial to the cutting-edge digital devices and weapons of today and tomorrow. TSMC accounts for more than 90% of global output of these chips, according to industry estimates."  https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

 

State of the art microprocessor manufacturing plants take tens of billions of dollars and many years to build.  Once built a huge technically capable work force must be recruited and trained.  Such building is taking place in the US and Europe, but by the time it is complete the facilities in Taiwan will have had years to advance their manufacturing abilities to a new level.

 

How important is all this to the world?  Important enough to throw the entire world into a major economic depression, with anarchy and chaos breaking out around the world.  It that important enough?

I do love the bit when you write "Once built a huge technically capable work force must be recruited and trained.  Such building is taking place in the US and Europe, but by the time it is complete the facilities in Taiwan will have had years to advance their manufacturing abilities to a new level."
And "Important enough to throw the entire world into a major economic depression, with anarchy and chaos breaking out around the world."

Okay, if right now today, if TSMC was to scrap or stop any new research into developing new chips, and carry on mass producing existing chips. Well, that's certainly not going to cause anarchy and chaos over the next ten years, right ?   ????
So, if they move production to California very soon, to mass produce existing chips, and don't bother designing new chips, things are okay, right ?   ????

They must train new staff in California to mass produce the chips ?  Staff in California designing new chips ?  How about let them Chinese in Republic of China go to California, give them work permits and visas to go ?  Actually, it won't happen, why on earth would Chinese in Republic of China want to move to California ?  ????

Anyway, the entire argument of protecting TSMC because it's so valuable and important is, is silly. How about telling TSMC that they're responsible for the huge bill regarding the vast amount of US military hardware in Taiwan ?

And notice how Apple and Tesla (we're now talking about the real big boys in technology, and how much these companies are worth, and yes, they're American) both regard China as a huge market. People say that Apple has production plants in China, Beijing demands that Apple and other tech companies share their technology with China. And if they don't, Beijing will throw out such companies, and hence massively reduce the profits they make in China. Hence, Apple and Tesla fully co-operate with Beijing.    Can TSMC do the same ?    ????

[tonbridgebrit]

3 hours ago, talahtnut said:

You've been reading an American magazine publication,

thats the version of history you would expect:  'Pompeo

deserves thanks for countering those narratives, and

for looking at Taiwan in its own right and its own light.'

Yeah, trust Fatty Pompeo, or any member of the establishment

to propagandise anti-China sentiment. There are two classes

of people, Those that hate China, and Those that have been there.

 "There are two classes of people, Those that hate China, and Those that have been there.  "

Well, there are those who hate China, and those who don't. What are the reasons for hating China ?

A few reasons, and most of these reasons are silly or absurd. One of them is this. China is flooding America and Europe with cheap manufactured goods. So you get silly people who don't like this, but notice how these people buy Chinese goods just like everybody else. And notice how most people don't care about how most of the stuff in their homes has been imported from China. Yes, Chinese imports flooding America. It's a repeat of the anti-Japanese sentiment in the 1980s, when Japan was flooding America with manufactured goods.

What else ?  China is still communist, and the anti-communists (and anti-socialists as well) hate China for this. It's absurd, yes China still has a red flag, but to say they're not actually communists is putting it lightly. Why hate people who wear a communist t-shirt, but they're not actually communists ?

And then there's racism. Notice how Russia has done it's stuff in Ukraine, but nobody wants America to fight Russia. But China against Taiwan, oh, people want America to go for it, yes, want to have a war against China. Why ?  Is it because the Russians are white, and Chinese are yellow ?  Chinese are coloured ?  So, if you're white, and you do stuff, well, let's not have a war.  But if you're Chinese, and you do the same stuff, well, got to have a war.   ????

In other words, the desire for war against China is not actually about protecting Chinese on some island off the coast of China. It's about hatred towards Chinese, wanting to clip China's wings.   ????

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, tonbridgebrit said:

I do love the bit when you write "Once built a huge technically capable work force must be recruited and trained.  Such building is taking place in the US and Europe, but by the time it is complete the facilities in Taiwan will have had years to advance their manufacturing abilities to a new level."
And "Important enough to throw the entire world into a major economic depression, with anarchy and chaos breaking out around the world."

Okay, if right now today, if TSMC was to scrap or stop any new research into developing new chips, and carry on mass producing existing chips. Well, that's certainly not going to cause anarchy and chaos over the next ten years, right ?   ????
So, if they move production to California very soon, to mass produce existing chips, and don't bother designing new chips, things are okay, right ?   ????

They must train new staff in California to mass produce the chips ?  Staff in California designing new chips ?  How about let them Chinese in Republic of China go to California, give them work permits and visas to go ?  Actually, it won't happen, why on earth would Chinese in Republic of China want to move to California ?  ????

Anyway, the entire argument of protecting TSMC because it's so valuable and important is, is silly. How about telling TSMC that they're responsible for the huge bill regarding the vast amount of US military hardware in Taiwan ?

And notice how Apple and Tesla (we're now talking about the real big boys in technology, and how much these companies are worth, and yes, they're American) both regard China as a huge market. People say that Apple has production plants in China, Beijing demands that Apple and other tech companies share their technology with China. And if they don't, Beijing will throw out such companies, and hence massively reduce the profits they make in China. Hence, Apple and Tesla fully co-operate with Beijing.    Can TSMC do the same ?    ????

"Okay, if right now today, if TSMC was to scrap or stop any new research into developing new chips, and carry on mass producing existing chips. Well, that's certainly not going to cause anarchy and chaos over the next ten years, right ?   ????"

 

Do you expect TSMC manufacturing to continue if there is a war between Taiwan and China?  Even if the facilities were taken intact the key workers would have left.  Manufacture of the most advanced microprocessors would end.  And yes, that would cause massive economic disruption in the very near future, and it would last for much longer than ten years. 

 

Remember the supply shortages caused by a shortage of microchips during the pandemic?  Imagine that time a hundred or more.  Manufacture of automobiles, appliances, consumer electronics, business electronics, server farms, high tech communication infrastructure, key steps in supply chains, etc. would stop.  Things would go downhill rapidly from there.

"So, if they move production to California very soon, to mass produce existing chips, and don't bother designing new chips, things are okay, right ?   ????"

 

No.  As was pointed out, it would take many years to build the facility and train the people, and it is unrealistic to expect chip technology to stand still while that is happening.  And you can't simply import people with the necessary skills (even if such rare people were willing to be come to the US or Europe).  You need talent that comes up to speed with the new facilities and has a steady stream of new workers to replace those that leave.

 

Regarding the rest:  Taiwan is buying the military hardware it is using to defend itself, it isn't a gift from the US.  And if Apple and Tesla are building or importing anything that violates US laws against providing material useful for the Chinese military or internal repression then they are violating sanction laws and should be prosecuted.

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, tonbridgebrit said:

 "There are two classes of people, Those that hate China, and Those that have been there.  "

Well, there are those who hate China, and those who don't. What are the reasons for hating China ?

A few reasons, and most of these reasons are silly or absurd. One of them is this. China is flooding America and Europe with cheap manufactured goods. So you get silly people who don't like this, but notice how these people buy Chinese goods just like everybody else. And notice how most people don't care about how most of the stuff in their homes has been imported from China. Yes, Chinese imports flooding America. It's a repeat of the anti-Japanese sentiment in the 1980s, when Japan was flooding America with manufactured goods.

What else ?  China is still communist, and the anti-communists (and anti-socialists as well) hate China for this. It's absurd, yes China still has a red flag, but to say they're not actually communists is putting it lightly. Why hate people who wear a communist t-shirt, but they're not actually communists ?

And then there's racism. Notice how Russia has done it's stuff in Ukraine, but nobody wants America to fight Russia. But China against Taiwan, oh, people want America to go for it, yes, want to have a war against China. Why ?  Is it because the Russians are white, and Chinese are yellow ?  Chinese are coloured ?  So, if you're white, and you do stuff, well, let's not have a war.  But if you're Chinese, and you do the same stuff, well, got to have a war.   ????

In other words, the desire for war against China is not actually about protecting Chinese on some island off the coast of China. It's about hatred towards Chinese, wanting to clip China's wings.   ????

"In other words, the desire for war against China is not actually about protecting Chinese on some island off the coast of China. It's about hatred towards Chinese, wanting to clip China's wings."

 

Now your being childish.  The desire is to prevent war with China and allow the people of Taiwan to choose their own government.  The fact that Taiwan has become a critical piece of the modern world economy gives this desire great urgency.

[tonbridgebrit]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

"Okay, if right now today, if TSMC was to scrap or stop any new research into developing new chips, and carry on mass producing existing chips. Well, that's certainly not going to cause anarchy and chaos over the next ten years, right ?   ????"

 

Do you expect TSMC manufacturing to continue if there is a war between Taiwan and China?  Even if the facilities were taken intact the key workers would have left.  Manufacture of the most advanced microprocessors would end.  And yes, that would cause massive economic disruption in the very near future, and it would last for much longer than ten years. 

 

Remember the supply shortages caused by a shortage of microchips during the pandemic?  Imagine that time a hundred or more.  Manufacture of automobiles, appliances, consumer electronics, business electronics, server farms, high tech communication infrastructure, key steps in supply chains, etc. would stop.  Things would go downhill rapidly from there.

"So, if they move production to California very soon, to mass produce existing chips, and don't bother designing new chips, things are okay, right ?   ????"

 

No.  As was pointed out, it would take many years to build the facility and train the people, and it is unrealistic to expect chip technology to stand still while that is happening.  And you can't simply import people with the necessary skills (even if such rare people were willing to be come to the US or Europe).  You need talent that comes up to speed with the new facilities and has a steady stream of new workers to replace those that leave.

 

Regarding the rest:  Taiwan is buying the military hardware it is using to defend itself, it isn't a gift from the US.  And if Apple and Tesla are building or importing anything that violates US laws against providing material useful for the Chinese military or internal repression then they are violating sanction laws and should be prosecuted.

This issue is not going away, is it ?    ????

"Do you expect TSMC manufacturing to continue if there is a war between Taiwan and China? "   You're correct, war between China and Taiwan will stop production and/or Taiwan's exports of these chips.  Yes, China might sink the ships exporting the chips, US and Taiwan defense systems will not be able to protect the ships.  And we're getting scared, because the world might collapse into anarchy because these chips are not leaving Taiwan ?   ????
By the way, will the US government block cheap Chinese goods entering America, bearing in mind that US soldiers will be firing their bullets at Chinese soldiers ? I reckon the US government will block Chinese goods. Yes, this will lead to anarchy in America. If Chinese goods are prevented from entering America, well, Walmart will have very little to sell in just a few months. Americans will panic.

"it would take many years to build the facility and train the people, and it is unrealistic to expect chip technology to stand still while that is happening. "
How long does the following gradual process take ?  Put some of the production machinery that's in Taiwan onto ships, ships sail to California, machinery is unloaded onto California. Put machinery into factories in California.  And put some into Texas as well.  Do it gradually, might take a whole year to transfer the whole lot to America.  And once the process is done, hey presto, problem with Taiwan is over and done with. No more worrying about how China attacking Taiwan will trigger World War Three. Planet earth will still have the computer chips, because it's being made in America.
And if the Chinese in Republic of China don't want to move to California, well, bump up their salaries, that will make them move. There's already a load of Chinese in California, they're in America if they can get a higher salary.   ????

Unrealistic for chip technology to stand still for a few years ?  You're correct. Why is TSMC pouring lots of money, for wages given to staff, who carry out research and development on new chip technology ?  Simple. Because all the time, other companies (yes, some are US companies, some are British) are carrying out their own development into new chip technology. If TSMC was stop research into new stuff, well, competitors and rivals all over the world will have the same stuff as TSMC in a few years time.  This will collapse the profits made by TSMC.  But do we really care ?  Who cares if the chips are from TSMC or whatever rival ?  We're fighting a war so that TSMC can carry on making whatever profit from these chips ?  We don't want it's rivals having a lead ?

And you're right about Taiwan's military hardware. Taiwan pays money to US defense contractors for those combat jets, missiles, etc.  American tax-payers are not paying for Taiwan's defence. Same as South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc.  Defence contractors make a generous profit. Sell to Taiwan or sell to the US government for America's defence. Maybe defense contractors lobby the US government to continue the present situation.    ????

Edited April 18, 2023 by tonbridgebrit

[tonbridgebrit]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

"In other words, the desire for war against China is not actually about protecting Chinese on some island off the coast of China. It's about hatred towards Chinese, wanting to clip China's wings."

 

Now your being childish.  The desire is to prevent war with China and allow the people of Taiwan to choose their own government.  The fact that Taiwan has become a critical piece of the modern world economy gives this desire great urgency.

"allow the people of Taiwan to choose their own government. "  Yes, that sounds good, but is that the real goal of Washington ?  It was the goal for the people of Kuwait, Nicaragua, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc, it was the goal to allow these people to have the government they actually want ?   ????

That's what war is about ?
 
And Republic of China is critical and vital for the modern world economy ?  Well, Peoples' Republic of China is certainly vital for todays world economy.  Stopping Peoples' Republic of China exporting it's goods will destroy the world economy.   ????

[heybruce]

30 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

This issue is not going away, is it ?    ????

"Do you expect TSMC manufacturing to continue if there is a war between Taiwan and China? "   You're correct, war between China and Taiwan will stop production and/or Taiwan's exports of these chips.  Yes, China might sink the ships exporting the chips, US and Taiwan defense systems will not be able to protect the ships.  And we're getting scared, because the world might collapse into anarchy because these chips are not leaving Taiwan ?   ????
By the way, will the US government block cheap Chinese goods entering America, bearing in mind that US soldiers will be firing their bullets at Chinese soldiers ? I reckon the US government will block Chinese goods. Yes, this will lead to anarchy in America. If Chinese goods are prevented from entering America, well, Walmart will have very little to sell in just a few months. Americans will panic.

"it would take many years to build the facility and train the people, and it is unrealistic to expect chip technology to stand still while that is happening. "
How long does the following gradual process take ?  Put some of the production machinery that's in Taiwan onto ships, ships sail to California, machinery is unloaded onto California. Put machinery into factories in California.  And put some into Texas as well.  Do it gradually, might take a whole year to transfer the whole lot to America.  And once the process is done, hey presto, problem with Taiwan is over and done with. No more worrying about how China attacking Taiwan will trigger World War Three. Planet earth will still have the computer chips, because it's being made in America.
And if the Chinese in Republic of China don't want to move to California, well, bump up their salaries, that will make them move. There's already a load of Chinese in California, they're in America if they can get a higher salary.   ????

Unrealistic for chip technology to stand still for a few years ?  You're correct. Why is TSMC pouring lots of money, for wages given to staff, who carry out research and development on new chip technology ?  Simple. Because all the time, other companies (yes, some are US companies, some are British) are carrying out their own development into new chip technology. If TSMC was stop research into new stuff, well, competitors and rivals all over the world will have the same stuff as TSMC in a few years time.  This will collapse the profits made by TSMC.  But do we really care ?  Who cares if the chips are from TSMC or whatever rival ?  We're fighting a war so that TSMC can carry on making whatever profit from these chips ?  We don't want it's rivals having a lead ?

And you're right about Taiwan's military hardware. Taiwan pays money to US defense contractors for those combat jets, missiles, etc.  American tax-payers are not paying for Taiwan's defence. Same as South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc.  Defence contractors make a generous profit. Sell to Taiwan or sell to the US government for America's defence. Maybe defense contractors lobby the US government to continue the present situation.    ????

Yes, the world economy is critically dependent on microprocessors and losing them would have unimaginably bad consequences.

 

No, buying or stealing TSMC's equipment is not an option, and it's not a simple matter of bringing it across the ocean and setting it up.  Educate yourself on the subject.

 

Defense contractors are private businesses that are expected to make a profit for their shareholders.  Just like all other private businesses.  That's the US system, and it has worked better than alternatives.

 

 

[heybruce]

20 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

"allow the people of Taiwan to choose their own government. "  Yes, that sounds good, but is that the real goal of Washington ?  It was the goal for the people of Kuwait, Nicaragua, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc, it was the goal to allow these people to have the government they actually want ?   ????

That's what war is about ?
 
And Republic of China is critical and vital for the modern world economy ?  Well, Peoples' Republic of China is certainly vital for todays world economy.  Stopping Peoples' Republic of China exporting it's goods will destroy the world economy.   ????

Actually the goal in all the conflicts you mentioned was to allow the people to choose their own governments, except for Vietnam and Nicaragua.  Those two were when the Soviet Union and the US were applying a "with us or against us" approach to world affairs, with very bad results.

 

Yes, China is vital to the world economy.  That's another reason why war is a bad idea.  That's why China should not attempt to retake Taiwan by force.  If China can convince the people of Taiwan they will be better off under Xi's rule then that's what should happen.  I think that's unlikely to happen.

[JonnyF]

On 4/12/2023 at 3:15 PM, Seppius said:

Joe Biden has again said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, in his most explicit statement so far on the issue.

I'm pretty sure the Chinese will have looked at US intervention overseas in recent decades and concluded that they have little to worry about. As soon as the going gets tough, or domestic political issues take precedence, or it is simply dragging on too long, the US will withdraw their troops. Having seen how Biden handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan, they'll be hoping he's still around when that takes place (however unlikely) so they can keep all the US military hardware and the technology that comes with it.

 

China is in it for the long haul and has little to fear from temporary military commitments from the US. 

[placeholder]

34 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

I'm pretty sure the Chinese will have looked at US intervention overseas in recent decades and concluded that they have little to worry about. As soon as the going gets tough, or domestic political issues take precedence, or it is simply dragging on too long, the US will withdraw their troops. Having seen how Biden handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan, they'll be hoping he's still around when that takes place (however unlikely) so they can keep all the US military hardware and the technology that comes with it.

 

China is in it for the long haul and has little to fear from temporary military commitments from the US. 

It was the Trump administration that negotiated the week-kneed agreement under which the US was required to pull out of Afghanistan. If anyone sent a message to the world, it was them.

[JonnyF]

27 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It was the Trump administration that negotiated the week-kneed agreement under which the US was required to pull out of Afghanistan. If anyone sent a message to the world, it was them.

Biden oversaw the chaos that was the actual withdrawal as you well know.

 

But anyway, I have no desire to have this diverted into yet another Trump thread. The fact remains they withdrew and the country collapsed into mayhem.

 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-asia/afghanistan/report-afghanistan/

 

China will be well aware of the US lack of success/staying power when it enters conflict overseas. They will be very confident of a repeat performance so a bit of hot air from Biden won't exactly have them quaking in their boots.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Biden oversaw the chaos that was the actual withdrawal as you well know.

 

But anyway, I have no desire to have this diverted into yet another Trump thread. The fact remains they withdrew and the country collapsed into mayhem.

 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-asia/afghanistan/report-afghanistan/

 

China will be well aware of the US lack of success/staying power when it enters conflict overseas. They will be very confident of a repeat performance so a bit of hot air from Biden won't exactly have them quaking in their boots.

The Chinese won't be the first to underestimate Biden's resolve. Just ask the Russians.

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The Chinese won't be the first to underestimate Biden's resolve. Just ask the Russians.

Yes, the Russians were clearly terrified of Biden as well, hence their decision to invade Ukraine ????.