Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold Bars?

[NoshowJones]

I am told by a family member the price of gold is a bit high just now and I should wait till after the schools go back. I am told the best time to buy is after the annual holidays, is that right? Thanks.

 

[itsari]

Gold price is looking expensive and the US dollar is looking undervalued. That's my guess .

[couchpotato]

The price of gold is determined by a myriad of worldwide factors, so if your family member can predict what the price will be after the school holidays, thats absolutely amazing.....

[Celsius]

Buy for what? Terrible investment. 

 

The money supply went up 10X in the past 10 years. Gold should be at minimum 10,000 by now if it was following this trend and what it was designed to do. Now hardly up in the past 10 years.

 

 

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

10 minutes ago, itsari said:

Gold price is looking expensive and the US dollar is looking undervalued. That's my guess .

My guess is exactly the opposite...

[NoshowJones]

22 minutes ago, couchpotato said:

The price of gold is determined by a myriad of worldwide factors, so if your family member can predict what the price will be after the school holidays, thats absolutely amazing.....

The family member is my wife's sister, she has not predicted what the price will be, I was wanting to go to the gold shop about next week but she said it is better to wait until the schools starts as the price should fall.

I am a complete novice at this. Are any posters buying gold blocks now?

[Lacessit]

38 minutes ago, Celsius said:

Buy for what? Terrible investment. 

 

The money supply went up 10X in the past 10 years. Gold should be at minimum 10,000 by now if it was following this trend and what it was designed to do. Now hardly up in the past 10 years.

 

 

 

 

In terms of the AUD, gold was 500/ounce in 1999. It's now 3000/ounce, a better capital growth than most stock markets.

Gold is not an investment, which earn income. It's a currency hedge.

As far as I am concerned, it is always a good time to buy precious metals. I have lost money in the sharemarket, never on gold, silver or platinum.

 

[itsari]

45 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

My guess is exactly the opposite...

Good luck

[BKKBike09]

1 hour ago, NoshowJones said:

 

I am told by a family member the price of gold is a bit high just now and I should wait till after the schools go back. I am told the best time to buy is after the annual holidays, is that right? Thanks.

 

If you're buying for the long-term, the short-term price fluctuations shouldn't factor into your thinking. Question is: if you buy gold now, where do you think price will be in 5 or 10 years? That said, unless you're buying a significant quantity (say USD 50K), gain (or loss) won't be "retirement here I come money", so ...

 

Personally I think gold (and, though it pains me to say it, bitcoin and ether), could well see a lot of growth over the next 2-3 years as alternatives to the USD. There's just too much debt in US / Europe fuelled by the lowest interest rates for a generation. Then throw in governments printing money for covid relief programmes. Inflation takes off so central banks try to control that by raising rates aggressively ... which then feeds back into all that debt on, say, 10-year repayment terms due 2023/2024 etc. Plus you've now got China pushing more and more direct G2G trade in yuan, circumventing the USD.

 

If you do buy some physical gold, be prepared for the disappointment that a, say, 10 baht gold bar (which will cost you about USD 10K) is underwhelmingly small.

 

[Celsius]

40 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

In terms of the AUD, gold was 500/ounce in 1999. It's now 3000/ounce, a better capital growth than most stock markets.

Gold is not an investment, which earn income. It's a currency hedge.

As far as I am concerned, it is always a good time to buy precious metals. I have lost money in the sharemarket, never on gold, silver or platinum.

 

 

It terms of AUD it is astonishing how much Australian dollar collapsed. Even if you bought a condo in Thailand you would see a better return than holding Asutralian dollars. 

[Red Phoenix]

46 minutes ago, itsari said:

Good luck

1 hour ago, itsari said:

Gold price is looking expensive and the US dollar is looking undervalued. That's my guess .

Well, good luck for you too.

Here a couple of facts that do not spell a rosy future for the US $:

- The FED printing trillions of dollars with nothing to back it up

- The BRICS countries now actively moving to get rid of the $ as international reserve-currency (which for decades did provide an unfair advantage to the US).  They are currently in the process of setting up a system that would allow them to do international trade in either a BRICS Unit or their own currencies

- Many countries at the moment silently buying gold in enormous quantities because they need a solid foundation for the value of their currency, as they are expecting the collapse of the $

And re gold:

- The gold-price has for more than 10 years now been heavily manipulated to keep the price low

- But with the demand for gold soaring both by Central banks and individuals wanting to protect the value of their currency c.q. assets, it won't take long anymore before the gold price will explode. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Red Phoenix

[owl sees all]

50 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

Well, good luck for you too.

Here a couple of facts that do not spell a rosy future for the US $:

- The FED printing trillions of dollars with nothing to back it up

- The BRICS countries now actively moving to get rid of the $ as international reserve-currency (providing an unfair advantage to the US).  They are currently in the process of setting up a system that would allow them to do international trade in either a BRICS Unit or their own currencies

- Many countries at the moment silently buying gold in enormous quantities because they need a solid foundation for the value of their currency, as they are expecting the collapse of the $

And re gold:

- The gold-price has for more than 10 years now been heavily manipulated to keep the price low

- But with the demand for gold soaring both by Central banks and individuals wanting to protect the value of their currency c.q. assets, it won't take long anymore before the gold price will explode. 

I agree to a point.

 

A look around at world affairs gives an indication of the lessening influence of the Dollar.US. Seems to me that rather than have a complete colaspe of the dollar; entities in the west would rather see WW111.

 

As for gold. I have also read that countries are buying gold; but who and from who? For us - no less important than countries - we should be looking at something that is tradable/barterable if belief in all FIATS goes belly up. Which could happen when/if the $ goes. Banks would not even be open and ATMs would soon be emptied; and not refilled. Transfers from one currency to another will not be possible.

Then people could be reluctant to take any sort of money for their goods or services, and gold (and perhaps silver) will once again be the saviour. So! I suggest getting one gram pieces or gold chains, where the links can be easily snipped off, to buy a durian or a can of petrol.

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by owl sees all

[CharlieKo]

24 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

I suggest getting one gram pieces or gold chains, where the links can be easily snipped off, to buy a durian or a can of petrol.

That is a really bad idea considering you pay more for jewellery, compared to baht bricks. The OP would be better buying small bricks of less that 1 baht weight. though 1 baht bricks are an ideal size. Take a look at Aurora website.      

[jaideedave]

2 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

The family member is my wife's sister, she has not predicted what the price will be, I was wanting to go to the gold shop about next week but she said it is better to wait until the schools starts as the price should fall.

I am a complete novice at this. Are any posters buying gold blocks now?

I intend to purchase some gold bars and have been advised that when schools resume is when a lot of families sell gold for childrens/school expenses and historically pulls the price down.

I'm in no rush and willing to wait a month or so and then re-evaluate.If indeed it does happen I will buy.

On my 1st visit to LOS it was circa 4300 baht/baht.

At one time I was sporting a 3 baht chain around my neck.I can't imagine surviving a night on the town with that these days.

[Lemsta69]

1 hour ago, Celsius said:

It terms of AUD it is astonishing how much Australian dollar collapsed.

It's not called the Pacific Peso for nothing! ????

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

The family member is my wife's sister, she has not predicted what the price will be, I was wanting to go to the gold shop about next week but she said it is better to wait until the schools starts as the price should fall.

I am a complete novice at this. Are any posters buying gold blocks now?

I bought a large quantity of tong teng in January.  I buy the one baht ingots because they are much easier to store and can be cashed individually if you just need 30K or so in baht.  I have already made over 10% on that investment.  

 

I will not tell you whether you should buy now or not....but what I can explain to you is why the wife's sister thinks the price will come down when school starts back up.

 

The reason is that many workaday Thais pawn their gold to the government pawn shop to get the cash to pay for their kids back to school expenses.

 

If you pay close attention just before the kids go back you will see huge lines down the street outside these pawn shops.

 

I remember the first time I saw this decades ago in Cherng Talay in Phuket.  Literally hundreds of people queing out the front door and down the footpath.  I had no idea what the business was until I asked a nearby food vendor.  It was the government pawn shop.

[Adumbration]

26 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

 1 baht bricks are an ideal size. Take a look at Aurora website.      

Yes they are.  All of my gold is comprised of 1 baht ingots.

[AndyFoxy]

There is a reason central banks and countries have been buying a lot of gold recently. I also have.

[couchpotato]

1 hour ago, jaideedave said:

I intend to purchase some gold bars and have been advised that when schools resume is when a lot of families sell gold for childrens/school expenses and historically pulls the price down.

I'm in no rush and willing to wait a month or so and then re-evaluate.If indeed it does happen I will buy.

On my 1st visit to LOS it was circa 4300 baht/baht.

At one time I was sporting a 3 baht chain around my neck.I can't imagine surviving a night on the town with that these days.

Thai gold doesn't go up or down because of selling for school expenses . It is tied to the world gold price. Who advised you on this?  How can people be so naive.

[Red Phoenix]

3 hours ago, Red Phoenix said:

- The FED printing trillions of dollars with nothing to back it up

And here an additional reason why people and institutions are fleeing from the US $

Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/02/half-of-americas-banks-are-already-insolvent-credit-crunch/

[Red Phoenix]

Yes it is now a good time to buy gold bars.

Attached below the link to an article written by Michael SNYDER which is indirectly related to the topic in this thread (the link being that a pending crash of the financial system will have people looking for ways of protecting their wealth).

https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/the-banking-collapse-of-2023-is-now?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

Here the intro to the article:

~ Collectively, the three big banks that have collapsed in 2023 had more assets than all 25 banks that collapsed in 2008 did.  Unfortunately, the banking collapse of 2023 is far from over. 

And here the concluding paragraphs of the - interesting - article

~ We really are on the verge of the largest commercial real estate crash in all of U.S. history.

And as mountains of commercial real estate loans go bad, a lot more banks will start to go under.

The “too big to fail” banks will scoop up those that they like, while others are simply liquidated and go out of existence.

Ultimately, I believe that we are going to see a wave of consolidation in the banking industry like we never have before.

We are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis.  Much worse is yet to come.

It is going to take a while for all the dominoes to fall, but each time another one tumbles over it will be a sign that the clock is ticking and that time is running out for the U.S. financial system.

[NoshowJones]

On 5/3/2023 at 4:56 PM, Adumbration said:

Yes they are.  All of my gold is comprised of 1 baht ingots.

Being ready to buy 1Baht Ingots soon, say 200,000Baht worth, how much can I expect to pay in commission? I just want to make sure no one takes advantage, I also want to pay through my Bangkok bank app, hopefully I will buy from an Aurora shop in China town.

[proton]

8 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Being ready to buy 1Baht Ingots soon, say 200,000Baht worth, how much can I expect to pay in commission? I just want to make sure no one takes advantage, I also want to pay through my Bangkok bank app, hopefully I will buy from an Aurora shop in China town.

I would think Hua Seng Heng would be less commission

[GameMaster]

Buy Alibaba stock. That's the real gold right now.

 

 

[Buffy Frobisher]

24 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Being ready to buy 1Baht Ingots soon, say 200,000Baht worth, how much can I expect to pay in commission? I just want to make sure no one takes advantage, I also want to pay through my Bangkok bank app, hopefully I will buy from an Aurora shop in China town.

I agree with @Proton. Hua Seng Heng is by far the best for commissions, at least for 99.9% gold which I've been buying from them for years. And be sure to get physical gold and stash it safely in a vault, not paper receipts which they also offer. At some point demand will outstrip supply if there's a failure of the $, and those holding paper will have a huge headache.

[KhunLA]

If you're going to hold long term, not sure there is really a bad time to buy gold.

 

Sort of follows oil, without the extreme, political peaks & valleys.

[save the frogs]

Is the return on investment of gold over-hyped?

 

Also, don't you need to physically store the gold and isn't it subject to possible theft? 

 

 

[NoshowJones]

1 hour ago, Buffy Frobisher said:

I agree with @Proton. Hua Seng Heng is by far the best for commissions, at least for 99.9% gold which I've been buying from them for years. And be sure to get physical gold and stash it safely in a vault, not paper receipts which they also offer. At some point demand will outstrip supply if there's a failure of the $, and those holding paper will have a huge headache.

So I should avoid 96.9%? now I'm getting confused.

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

Being ready to buy 1Baht Ingots soon, say 200,000Baht worth, how much can I expect to pay in commission? I just want to make sure no one takes advantage, I also want to pay through my Bangkok bank app, hopefully I will buy from an Aurora shop in China town.

200K won't buy a lot.  6 ingots and change.  I pay spot going in and spot less 100 baht going out.

 

I use a small shop in the biggest town near to my village.

 

Beware some (most) gold shops will lie to you if in a tourist area.  One scam is that they claim that the 1 baht ingots are priced as jewellery not gold bars.

 

When I purchase I always take a video and request written and signed receipt from the shop.

 

96.5 baht is Thai gold.  You can buy and sell it fine here but it is very difficult to sell outside of Thailand.  If you think you want to export the bars out to another country in the future you should buy 99.9.  It is difficult to buy unless you head to Bangkok.

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

Is the return on investment of gold over-hyped?

 

Also, don't you need to physically store the gold and isn't it subject to possible theft? 

 

 

Time is the issue with all investment classes.  I bought more gold in January of this year and I have already made 10% on that investment.

 

But whether it is the right time to buy more right now I am not so sure.

 

If the Thai ingot price gets to 33500 in the next week or so, I actually might sell.

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Adumbration