EVs Might Not Cost A Butt Load Soon

[KhunLA]

4 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Thailand also  subsidises EV is that because they wouldn't sell without the  subsidy

I think they are just trying to get people to take a peek at them.  Get past the ignorance so many posters on AN display.

 

Brilliant marketing if you ask me, and giving us 240k baht to buy one ...

... what's not to like about that ????

[KhunLA]

16 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

MG4 starting price in the UK is £26,995
MG Mulan (Chinese name for MG4 starting price is £12,653
difference is £14,342 at Chinese prices could buy 2 and still have change
SAIC's MG brand cuts MG Mulan EV price by 17% in China
By Lei Kang/CnEVPost
SAIC Motor's MG brand yesterday announced a limited-time offer of up to 17 percent off for the compact electric crossover MG Mulan.

Between July 1 and July 31, Chinese customers who purchase the MG Mulan will receive a discount of RMB 24,000 ($3,350), bringing the starting price down to RMB 115,800 yuan.

https://cnevpost.com/2023/07/13/saic-mg-cuts-mg-mulan-price-by-17-china/

 

Convert RMB 115,800 to B578,984

Apparently it sucks living in the UK if wanting an EV ????

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

I think they are just trying to get people to take a peek at them.  Get past the ignorance so many posters on AN display.

 

Brilliant marketing if you ask me, and giving us 240k baht to buy one ...

... what's not to like about that ????

So would you buy without the B240K discount

[VocalNeal]

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I don't think they make one that crappy, or one anyone would buy.  I you want to drive sh!t, then buy sh!t.

You haven't answered the question. ???? Just posted your normal crap. How about some facts and figures.

It is attitudes like yours trying to be condescending that gives EV owners a bad name.

 

Suzuki Celerio is a perfectly good, small car perfect for short local journeys, just like any electric car. 

 

10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

If you want to drive sh!t, then buy sh!t.

Obviously a choice you have made.????

 

[vinny41]

Just now, KhunLA said:

Apparently is sucks living in the UK if wanting an EV ????

Haven't seen any MG4 in Thailand at B578,984 cheapest is B769,000

[KhunLA]

20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

So would you buy without the B240K discount

Probably not, at the time, as was quite happy with our ICE version of same, MG ZS.  

 

Hindsight, now owning ... hell yea, even though against my religion to pay more than 1M baht for 4 wheeled transport.  It's a pleasure to drive, and no longer ignorant, as in 2020, the savings over the life of the car, will literally pay for itself, and so much more.

 

So glad we waited though, as upgraded battery pack & 240k off, lowering the cost to 949k is just icing on the cake.  Having solar is a great motivator also.  Have too much excess solar, not to have an EV.

 

How do you turn down, saving at least 50k baht on your transport cost?

[KhunLA]

12 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Suzuki Celerio is a perfectly good, small car perfect for short local journeys, just like any electric car. 

I you think so, though personally, I'd spring for the extra 130k baht and get the Neta V, if just knocking around town.  Get that extra buy in cost back on petrol savings alone.

 

Choices.  Nobody forcing anyone to buy either. 

[steve187]

36 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I don't think they make one that crappy, or one anyone would buy.  If you want to drive sh!t, then buy sh!t.

 

You do get what you pay for some times.   EVs in TH are no more expensive than Japanese imports.  

 

Entry level ICEVs, made in TH ... owned a few, never again ...

... nuff said

mg zs x ice is 200,00thb cheaper tan a mg zs x ev

[sirineou]

I am for EV,, and as soon as my 2 year old ICE vehicle is old enough to be economically viable to trade or sell, I will get an EV.

Burt that's not to say that there are not some challenges to converting the transportation system in Thailand to prominently EV.

The reason being is that the electricity infustracture can not handle and EV charging in every home. And thousands of charging stations. 

 This problem might be overcome with solar charging systems at home.  

But as it is right now the transforms simply cant handle the loads nessacery for charging too many EVs in a neighborhood, and  transformers big enough to handle the load, would be to heavy for the current electric poles. 

It would be interesting to see how this plays out.

   One thing for sure, there is an EV in everyone's near future , even those who are now totally against them, 

[KhunLA]

21 minutes ago, steve187 said:

mg zs x ice is 200,00thb cheaper tan a mg zs x ev

And ... your point.

 

Our 2020 ICE version, mid level (of 3 offered at the time) was 695k baht, and actually the entry level's price, so nice 40k baht off sale.

 

Out 2022 ZS EV was 949k, so 254k baht more.  Less than 5 yrs of petrol savings, and we'll recoup that, if we keep putting 20k kms a year on it, and petrol stays the same price.  We charge mostly with excess solar, unless O&A.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

Electricity is becoming a scarcer resource because governments and the public are baulking at new coal, gas or nuclear base-loading powere stations. Look at the resistance to Thailand trying to build new gas power plants. Renewables will keep adding peak power, but cannot supply more baseline power. As demand continues to rise, prices will continue to rise.

 

All governments tax petrol/gas and the revenues are significant contributions to revenues spent on roads and [ublic infrastructure. This revenue stream will need to be replaced as electric vehicles become increasingly mainstream and demands on domestic electric grids increases. Governments can increase vehicle registration costs or add surcharge taxes to electricity to compensate. They will do both.

 

 

You really need to get yourself acquainted with the huge advances being made in energy storage. The price of which has plummeted. what's more, presently only 4% of Thailand's power comes from renewables.

In addition, for better or worse, who or what has stopped Thailand from adding additional fossil fuel powered plants from operating?

Finally, how much of a registration fee for EV's do you think it will take to cover the costs they incur for infrastructure?

Finally, you fail to note the cost savings in health care and infrastructure damage caused by fossil fuels.

 

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The big reason that EVs are not going to sell well as second hand cars is that the cost of replacing batteries is so high. Many if not most drive second hand cars.

As has repeatedly been pointed out, apparently to no avail, EV batteries are lasting far longer than originally projected. So much so that recycling plants are operating at way under their utilization levels. Not only that, but after the rest of the vehicle is scrapped, the batteries can be used for energy storage on the grid or for private use.

[Stevemercer]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You really need to get yourself acquainted with the huge advances being made in energy storage. The price of which has plummeted. what's more, presently only 4% of Thailand's power comes from renewables.

In addition, for better or worse, who or what has stopped Thailand from adding additional fossil fuel powered plants from operating?

Finally, how much of a registration fee for EV's do you think it will take to cover the costs they incur for infrastructure?

Finally, you fail to note the cost savings in health care and infrastructure damage caused by fossil fuels.

 

I'm not arguing about the huge advances in energy storage. I also think it is a good idea to avoid new power stations using fossil fuels.

 

What I am saying is that there are no commensurate advances in the cost of generating the power to be stored. The world has been dependent on fossil fuels for nearly a century and governments won't give up the associated taxes and revenue streams. Consumers of electricity will have to pay their fair share.

 

Fuel excises were worth $3.77 billion in 2022/23 revenue to the Australian government, charged at about 48 cents per litre of petrol. Nearly half is spent on road infrastructure and the rest goes to consolidated revenue. The average cost to each household is about $1210. To replace this revenue, an additional $1210 per year could be placed on individual car registrations. Of course, this could be done gradually as electric car uptake increases and should also apply to IC cars.

 

Alternatively, governments could collect from electricity providers who will add a tarrif to electricity charges. In reality, governments will do both. They are not going to forgo revenue just because it is good for the environment.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Stevemercer said:

I'm not arguing about the huge advances in energy storage. I also think it is a good idea to avoid new power stations using fossil fuels.

 

What I am saying is that there are no commensurate advances in the cost of generating the power to be stored. The world has been dependent on fossil fuels for nearly a century and governments won't give up the associated taxes and revenue streams. Consumers of electricity will have to pay their fair share.

 

Fuel excises were worth $3.77 billion in 2022/23 revenue to the Australian government, charged at about 48 cents per litre of petrol. Nearly half is spent on road infrastructure and the rest goes to consolidated revenue. The average cost to each household is about $1210. To replace this revenue, an additional $1210 per year could be placed on individual car registrations. Of course, this could be done gradually as electric car uptake increases and should also apply to IC cars.

 

Alternatively, governments could collect from electricity providers who will add a tarrif to electricity charges. In reality, governments will do both. They are not going to forgo revenue just because it is good for the environment.

 

 

 

First off, it's false that "there are no commensurate advances in the cost of generating the power to be stored."

Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of power. In fact, in most cases it's cheaper to replace an existing coal-powered plant with solar or wind than just to keep that coal-powered plant running. The cost of solar keeps on declining as photovoltaics become both more efficient and cheaper to manufacture. And the cost of storage is declining precipitously.

So, let's say that it's a wash as far as taxes are concerned. Renewables are still cheaper. And getting even cheaper. In addition, air pollution exacts huge costs as regards human health and damage to infrastructure.

 

[Stevemercer]

Dear placeholder

 

We will have to agree to disagree. Renewables don't make the cut for baseloading power (60%) because the wind does not always blow, the sun does not always shine, rivers do not always flow, hydro dams sometimes freeze or are drought affected etc. Renewables will always be used for peak loading (40%) where they will also command the highest return on electricity prices. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

11 hours ago, sirineou said:

The reason being is that the electricity infustracture can not handle and EV charging in every home.

Do you mind if I charge my phone at your house?

Maybe you do, but if I still did it, you wouldn't be able to spot it in your electricity bill.

How about 10 phones? 

No, let's make it 100 phones charging at your house. Each phone only charges for 1 hour/day, so on average 4 phones are charging at any given time. Your meter and main breaker board can easily handle it. 1,000 phones are probably also doable. 

Assuming you are using 800 kWh/month, 1 phone at your house is the equivalent to 62,500 EVs added to the Thai power grid.

 

[placeholder]

32 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

Dear placeholder

 

We will have to agree to disagree. Renewables don't make the cut for baseloading power (60%) because the wind does not always blow, the sun does not always shine, rivers do not always flow, hydro dams sometimes freeze or are drought affected etc. Renewables will always be used for peak loading (40%) where they will also command the highest return on electricity prices. 

False. As I pointed out, storage costs have declined precipitously. As this study from M.I.T. 3 years ago concluded, for 100% renewables, storage costs would have to fall to $5 per kwh of capacity. But to get to 95% renewables, storage the cost of renewables would have to fall below $150 per kwh. Guess what? That goal has been met and surpassed. Iron flow batteries and zinc oxide batteries, to name just a few have done just that. Even lithium ion batteries are now below that level, but their storage capacity is basically good for only 6 hours. Other flow batteries are now good for 100 hours.

How Inexpensive Must Energy Storage Be for Utilities to Switch to 100 Percent Renewables? MIT researchers list the energy storage technologies that could enable a 100 percent renewable grid

https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-energy-storage-would-have-to-cost-for-a-renewable-grid

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9

 

[placeholder]

16 hours ago, sirineou said:

I am for EV,, and as soon as my 2 year old ICE vehicle is old enough to be economically viable to trade or sell, I will get an EV.

Burt that's not to say that there are not some challenges to converting the transportation system in Thailand to prominently EV.

The reason being is that the electricity infustracture can not handle and EV charging in every home. And thousands of charging stations. 

 This problem might be overcome with solar charging systems at home.  

But as it is right now the transforms simply cant handle the loads nessacery for charging too many EVs in a neighborhood, and  transformers big enough to handle the load, would be to heavy for the current electric poles. 

It would be interesting to see how this plays out.

   One thing for sure, there is an EV in everyone's near future , even those who are now totally against them, 

Well, if in fact, EVs are universally adopted you'd have a better point. But, in fact, it will happen over time and there's no reason to think that the Thailand can't add more capacity to its electric grid.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Do you mind if I charge my phone at your house?

Maybe you do, but if I still did it, you wouldn't be able to spot it in your electricity bill.

How about 10 phones? 

No, let's make it 100 phones charging at your house. Each phone only charges for 1 hour/day, so on average 4 phones are charging at any given time. Your meter and main breaker board can easily handle it. 1,000 phones are probably also doable. 

Assuming you are using 800 kWh/month, 1 phone at your house is the equivalent to 62,500 EVs added to the Thai power grid.

 

Are these figures based on all EVs charging at the same time and at the time when demand is highest?

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Are these figures based on all EVs charging at the same time and at the time when demand is highest?

Nope, evenly distributed.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Why do people still post the same repetitive false narrative.  New (LFP) batteries won't need replacing for 20+ years, if ever:

 

LOL, my previous car was 10 years old when I bought it and I had it for 20 years. If I knew I'd have to replace the batteries during that time I would not buy one.

The one before that was already 20 years old when I bought it and I had it for 20 years.

You write like someone that has no problem buying a new car, so what would you know about having to buy old cars?

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, KhunLA said:

So glad we waited though, as upgraded battery pack & 240k off, lowering the cost to 949k is just icing on the cake.  Having solar is a great motivator also.  Have too much excess solar, not to have an EV.

 

How do you turn down, saving at least 50k baht on your transport cost?

You are obviously rich. Apparently you have no idea how poor people have to live.

I could turn down a 50k saving easily given the cost even at that price is unaffordable.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, sirineou said:

I am for EV,, and as soon as my 2 year old ICE vehicle is old enough to be economically viable to trade or sell, I will get an EV.

Burt that's not to say that there are not some challenges to converting the transportation system in Thailand to prominently EV.

The reason being is that the electricity infustracture can not handle and EV charging in every home. And thousands of charging stations. 

 This problem might be overcome with solar charging systems at home.  

But as it is right now the transforms simply cant handle the loads nessacery for charging too many EVs in a neighborhood, and  transformers big enough to handle the load, would be to heavy for the current electric poles. 

It would be interesting to see how this plays out.

   One thing for sure, there is an EV in everyone's near future , even those who are now totally against them, 

I'm not against EVs at all, but they are too expensive new, batteries are too expensive to replace and they don't have sufficient range if driving long distances.

Solve the battery problem and fix it so one can recharge ( or replace batteries on a slide out / slide in basis ) in less than 15 minutes and no q for a charging point, and I would think differently, as long as they were equivalent price second hand.

[sirineou]

7 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Do you mind if I charge my phone at your house?

Maybe you do, but if I still did it, you wouldn't be able to spot it in your electricity bill.

How about 10 phones? 

No, let's make it 100 phones charging at your house. Each phone only charges for 1 hour/day, so on average 4 phones are charging at any given time. Your meter and main breaker board can easily handle it. 1,000 phones are probably also doable. 

Assuming you are using 800 kWh/month, 1 phone at your house is the equivalent to 62,500 EVs added to the Thai power grid.

 

I am not an expert in that subject all the information I have concerning this is second hand and it could be that I am wrong.This might be something that "Crossy, " who knows a bit more about this than I ever would ,might want to wade in . 

What I know is that the opinion I heard is that the Transformers heat up during the day and are designed to cool down during the night, if we suddenly have a lot of demand during the night from charging EVs transformers cant cool down and are more likely to blow, In the US along there are 180 million transformers that might need to be replaced , in addition the light poles that support these transformers might also need to be replaced or modified to support the larger and heavier transformers, 

Since this is not going to happen any time soon , municipalities in the US control how many chargers can be added in every street by the issuing of charger permits.  To upgrade the grid thorough 2030   in the US it is estimated that it would cost tens of billions of dollars, 

I am not saying that is not doable , but it would be a challenge,  

That's in the US, have you ever looked at the electrical infustracture in Thailand? I am sure you have.

 

Credit for the above info to the  theoretical physicist, Sabine Hossenfelder

 

[KhunLA]

36 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You are obviously rich. Apparently you have no idea how poor people have to live.

I could turn down a 50k saving easily given the cost even at that price is unaffordable.

Far from rich, just comfy.  That's what happens when you work, plan a retirement and use common sense.  

 

Luckily no major health issues along the way.

[KhunLA]

41 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL, my previous car was 10 years old when I bought it and I had it for 20 years. If I knew I'd have to replace the batteries during that time I would not buy one.

The one before that was already 20 years old when I bought it and I had it for 20 years.

You write like someone that has no problem buying a new car, so what would you know about having to buy old cars?

I know plenty about buying old cars.  That's what you buy till you can buy new ones:

https://aseannow.com/topic/1303105-what-about-your-first-few-years-of-mechanisedmotorised-transport/#comment-18270550

 

[sirineou]

46 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm not against EVs at all, but they are too expensive new, batteries are too expensive to replace and they don't have sufficient range if driving long distances.

Solve the battery problem and fix it so one can recharge ( or replace batteries on a slide out / slide in basis ) in less than 15 minutes and no q for a charging point, and I would think differently, as long as they were equivalent price second hand.

I am with you on this except the cost, which is also coming down quickly. 

To buy an EV comparable to the ICE vehicle I now own it would not cost much more , if not the same. The price of the BYD Atto3 is 1.2 million baht , which is in line with comparable spec vehicles IMO. 

 But you are absolutely right in everything  else.  Butteries are too expensive to replace right now. Most EV batteries will last between 15-20 years or 100,000 to 200,000 miles before they need to be replaced, but remember that the batteries will not be replaced right now but in 15-20 years . What would be the cost of batteries , given innovation and scale of economies in 15-20 years? 

  Range anxiety is a concern. At this point if we were to have an EV, it would have to be a second vehicle, we like to take long road trips , and with an EV such trips would be impossible without extensive planning. Pesonaly, I am way to lazy , and unwilling for such charging planning and time allocation. As many people are. 

  Toyota and others claim to have in the pipeline (2027) solid state batteries with 1.000 km range and 10 min. charging time. I am sure other will not be too far behind , That's only 4 years away, which by the way would be about the time I would be ready to trade my relatively new vehicle. 

So let's wait and see. 

But given that 90% (perhaps more) of my driving is around town , perhaps I will buy an inexpensive EV, before then , just for that purpose.  

  

[KhunLA]

8 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 But you are absolutely right in averting else.  Butteries are too expensive to replace right now. Most EV batteries will last between 15-20 years or 100,000 to 200,000 miles before they need to be replaced, but remember that the batteries will not be replaced eight now but in 15-20 years . What would be the cost of batteries , given innovation and scale of economies in 15-20 years? 

And some folks think the 2500 cycles is conservative and quote 10k.  That's a stretch.

 

And they don't need replacement, just hold 80% of original capacity.  Most if having a problem, with cells/module, simply replace the cell/module that at bad, not the whole pack.

[sirineou]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

 

estimates vary widely 

The information I used concerning battery longevity was from Forbes magazine dated October 2022, 

"Experts say an EV battery should last for at least 10-20 years "

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2022/10/13/by-the-numbers-how-long-should-an-electric-cars-battery-last/?sh=2433df972cc3

 

The miles range was from a previous 2021 estimate and might have ben dated. 

I am interested to know, What is your source? 

[thaibeachlovers]

14 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I am with you on this except the cost, which is also coming down quickly. 

To buy an EV comparable to the ICE vehicle I now own it would not cost much more , if not the same. The price of the BYD Atto3 is 1.2 million baht , which is in line with comparable spec vehicles IMO. 

 

Thanks for that post.

Doesn't matter how cheap a new car is given most in NZ drive second hand cars, many thousands of which are over 10 year old imported Japanese cars. I drive one myself.

Many cars are for sale on the side of the road for between $3,000 and $5,000 NZ $. Unless EVs can be bought at that price without costly battery changes IMO they ain't going to become very common.

Without a doubt, road user charges will be brought in if they became more common on the road, so they won't be cheaper to drive.