Thailand In Ten Years

[canuckamuck]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

An elephant sized grain of salt is oxymoronical.

Half a grain of salt would have been more cutting.

Do you help GW with his speeches?

No, I am not quite evil enough for that, but thanks for asking.

Actually, I don't even get your point, so I must be stupid too. Grain of salt: small. Elephant sized grain of salt: really big. Why would I want to say half a grain of salt when accusing a predictor of being a Texas sized BS artist?

"Take it with a grain of salt"

Generally meant to imply a certain amount of skepticism over certain advice and information.

I mistakenly believed it meant to put a low value on the information, but in actuality it means to take an antidote along with the poison to protect yourself from it.

So I mispoke and you accidently said something quite witty.

Edited July 15, 2007 by canuckamuck

[jbowman1993]

There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know.

The proverb has been traced back in English to 1546 (John Heywood)

cite

I bet you are really fun at parties.... if you get invited to any.

[canuckamuck]

Now we have created a worldwide "culture of irresponsibility." But that just might change. There may be some hope.....if Al Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize he may run for the presidency, win again, and change some things.....set a different tone worldwide.

Al Gore is your hope for the world?

Ouch!

I guess they gave arafat a Nobel Prize for being a career terrorist. Al Gore certainly might get one too. And I have no doubt Gore has a clean shot at the oval office. But to assume he is more than a PC poster boy and capable of stabilizing Earth politics is fairly starry-eyed.

[Jingthing]

I share Texas boy's overall pessimism about the future of the world. A good example of this point of view is Kurt Vonnegut's last book, A Man Without A Country. However, I seriously doubt anyone can accurately predict the specific future of Thailand in the next 10 years. I agree with the solid core of scientists who think human survival beyond 50 years is questionable, so I suggest enjoy your time now, and don't breed.

Edited July 15, 2007 by samran

[Mid]

Jingthing:

Mr Spook said your invites in the mail

thanxs for ponying up .

[opebo]

While it is true that it is hard to predict anything accurately but there are a few exceptions. I'll make the claim that we can accurately predict the demographics of Thailand (for ten years anyway), and that this will profoundly effect every aspect of the country.

Certainly demographers have been spectacularly wrong in their predictions before - we all know how they used to go on about population growth, while nowadays the birth dearth and aging population is the overriding phenomenon. And Thailand is no exception - Thais' birth rate has fallen disasterously (to an even lower level than the US, though not quite to European levels), and each succeeding generation is relatively smaller; thus this country is aging rapidly.

How does this affect the farang in Thailand? Obviously, far less young women to enter the sex business, alas. One can already see a shockingly increased median age of our working girls in Pattaya. There is no more scarce commodity in a world of declining birthrates than hot 18-21 year old poonanny.

I fear it is this demographic change even more than economic growth or puritanical governments which will destroy our fun, gentlemen (though obviously each reinforces the other).

[gwynt]

I imagine life will continue pretty much the same way it has in this wonderful country for the past 2000 years. The people will greet you with a smile and a friendly greeting. The tom yum will be spicy and filling. The bia Sing will go really well with ice cubes when you sit outside drinking it. My wife will be the most amazingly warm caring mother and partner a man could ask for, and her family will still be generous, friendly, and fun to be around.

I've never defined my existance by what the government does, or what the baht is doing. I prefer the more mundane, everyday things, and I think the silent majority on the board do as well.

Hear, Hear The sooner I can retire to the best country ever the happier I will be.

[qualtrough]

Hope you all have better luck with your predictions than Louis Lomax did:

Lomax, Louis, Thailand: The War That Is, The War That Will Be (Random House-1967)

As I recall, the basic premise of the book was that Thailand was going to be the next domino to fall after Vietnam.

Edited July 15, 2007 by qualtrough

[lazeeboy]

Hope you all have better luck with your predictions than Louis Lomax did:

Lomax, Louis, Thailand: The War That Is, The War That Will Be (Random House-1967)

As I recall, the basic premise of the book was that Thailand was going to be the next domino to fall after Vietnam.

thailand in ten years will be much the same ,the problem in the south wont be sorted ,expats will be still whinging ,many of us will be dead ,new expats will be here ,but the price of eggs will definately go up

[puipuitom]

- the power will remain with the elite. Business interests will eventually dictate the direction of government once again.

-Thailand will have fallen behind Vietnam in international trade and will be struggling to regain its Asian tiger status.

-Tourism will have shifted to primarily Asian customers, China, Korea, Russia, and Japan. Thailand will become a destination for the elite traveler. Sorry cheap Charlie, Cambodia is calling.

-Education will improve through the globalization of information.

What do you say?

With direct food business experience with Thailand and other SE Asian countries, I can look to the threads and opportunities:

- The elite doesnot give a ###### for the poorer country fellowmen. Not in the past, not now not in the future. Own interest only.

- China is developping so quick and taking over so much business, I fear for Thailand. My soya sauces, mango slices, lychee, bamboo shoots, baby corn, instant noodles, rice vermicelli is already switched from TH to CN

- The own daily desission making in China is acceptable, the Thais wait till the Imperial Whisdom, the All-Knowing BOZZ says to the left or to the right. Result: China is already packing while the Thais wait, till the BOZZ has time to think it over.

- Zero interest and understanding for the whishes of the foreign customer, while the Chinese and Vietnamese always try to find a way to solve. Thai: FOB and when THEY want, never when the oversees customer needs. Thai export manager already visiting food fairs in Germany, France and UK, but never allowed to go downtown to see shops with his/her own eyses. BOZZ goes shopping, manager stays at the fair.

- Vietnam gets often the children of the fugatives back to start a busness.They know the Western style perfect. "I worked at Wal-mart, Aldi etc, during holidays, be sure I know their thinking and needs ! ".

- Thais have no ideas about their own possibilities. Education is: follow the teacher, as he is AND older AND your master, so ALWAYS knows better. For over 13 years I donot dsee any progress in questioning ANY situation, find on own ititiative a better way. Always: follow the BOZZ / foreign customer. "What do you want", but NEVER: "This we can do also, and better ! ". As a German friend says: A Toyota bus arrives at our factory, with a Toyota car before and behind, full with Japanese, with Japanese ingredients, Japanese packing materials and Japanese machinery to tell till details how to make. Breath in from the left, breath out from the right, and NO THAI comes at the idea it can go the other way too.

- When the Burmese Junta leaves, and tourism goes open to Myanmar, Thailand will loose here dramatically.

Imagine: Take all Chinese, Japanese, Farangs and Sikhs away from Thailand. What is left then ???

YES, I see Thailand being overrun in 10-15 years by the Chinese for nearly all, the Vietnamese with same agricultural possibilities but better utilisation, Cambodia with low wage low education jobs incl sex tourism, and Myanmar with nicer tourist attractions.

[TBWG]

Hi

Predictions ... I can't help thinking of the foreign office expert in the UK who anticipated an inflow of 6-7,000 migrants from some new entrant to the EU.

At the last count it was 350,000 they were aware of, plus god knows how many more illegals!

S'pose the point I am getting at is that even a so called "expert" looking at a narrow time frame on a specific problem can make a monumental balls of it.

He's probaly relaxing now contemplating a 30 year super annuated bliss, whilst wearing his rose tinted specs

TBWG

[LaoPo]

With direct food business experience with Thailand and other SE Asian countries, I can look to the threads and opportunities:

- The elite doesnot give a ###### for the poorer country fellowmen. Not in the past, not now not in the future. Own interest only.

- China is developping so quick and taking over so much business, I fear for Thailand. My soya sauces, mango slices, lychee, bamboo shoots, baby corn, instant noodles, rice vermicelli is already switched from TH to CN

- The own daily desission making in China is acceptable, the Thais wait till the Imperial Whisdom, the All-Knowing BOZZ says to the left or to the right. Result: China is already packing while the Thais wait, till the BOZZ has time to think it over.

- Zero interest and understanding for the whishes of the foreign customer, while the Chinese and Vietnamese always try to find a way to solve. Thai: FOB and when THEY want, never when the oversees customer needs. Thai export manager already visiting food fairs in Germany, France and UK, but never allowed to go downtown to see shops with his/her own eyses. BOZZ goes shopping, manager stays at the fair.

- Vietnam gets often the children of the fugatives back to start a busness.They know the Western style perfect. "I worked at Wal-mart, Aldi etc, during holidays, be sure I know their thinking and needs ! ".

- Thais have no ideas about their own possibilities. Education is: follow the teacher, as he is AND older AND your master, so ALWAYS knows better. For over 13 years I donot dsee any progress in questioning ANY situation, find on own ititiative a better way. Always: follow the BOZZ / foreign customer. "What do you want", but NEVER: "This we can do also, and better ! ". As a German friend says: A Toyota bus arrives at our factory, with a Toyota car before and behind, full with Japanese, with Japanese ingredients, Japanese packing materials and Japanese machinery to tell till details how to make. Breath in from the left, breath out from the right, and NO THAI comes at the idea it can go the other way too.

- When the Burmese Junta leaves, and tourism goes open to Myanmar, Thailand will loose here dramatically.

Imagine: Take all Chinese, Japanese, Farangs and Sikhs away from Thailand. What is left then ???

YES, I see Thailand being overrun in 10-15 years by the Chinese for nearly all, the Vietnamese with same agricultural possibilities but better utilisation, Cambodia with low wage low education jobs incl sex tourism, and Myanmar with nicer tourist attractions.

I fully agree.

It's the enormous gap and differences between cultures [between Thai and Japanese, Vietnamese, Chinese], smartness, initiative and intelligence, apart from hard work....very hard work.

But....Thailand will stay a fun-country for a long time; not the business center in the Far East.

Both Singapore and Hong Kong business are run by Chinese....Thailand too [not even talking about China here] , but there is a difference: The former are not interested in -economic & political- power, just money.

The Thai Chinese are interested in money AND power....read: protect their influence, power and money.

Understandable from their point of view, but in the end....not very clever since sooner or later the masses will turn against them; just a matter of time.

LaoPo

[chinthee]

If you can forgive the obvious grammatical challenges of an English as a 2nd language writer, Thai trader service is very much right on.

I won't go into a litany of reasons why Thailand will be increasingly regionally marginalized in the coming years (you can read that on the economy threads on tv), but I will state that I love Thailand and believe it will still be a very nice place to live for years to come.

However, it will be no place for movers and shakers. For the hunters, it will rather be a place of repose to regain strength when hunting and killing elsewhere in Asia. For the elderly, with means, it will continue to offer an ideal place to play out the final years, unless things get ugly from the the country's reduced role in Asia-Pac and the world, lower year-on-year GDP growth rate, etc., which could result in increasing crime.

For everyone else, not so much....

[lannarebirth]

If you can forgive the obvious grammatical challenges of an English as a 2nd language writer, Thai trader service is very much right on.

I won't go into a litany of reasons why Thailand will be increasingly regionally marginalized in the coming years (you can read that on the economy threads on tv), but I will state that I love Thailand and believe it will still be a very nice place to live for years to come.

However, it will be no place for movers and shakers. For the hunters, it will rather be a place of repose to regain strength when hunting and killing elsewhere in Asia. For the elderly, with means, it will continue to offer an ideal place to play out the final years, unless things get ugly from the the country's reduced role in Asia-Pac and the world, lower year-on-year GDP growth rate, etc., which could result in increasing crime.

For everyone else, not so much....

I generally agree with his assessment but perhaps not for the food industry. Personally, I just couldn't imagine buying foodstuffs in any quantity from China. They'd sell you flour and call it baby formula to make an extra few Yuan. Wouldn't matter a bit to them if your baby died.

As for the OP, I think Thailand's middle class will be larger, with greater gap between richest and poorest. I think the poor will be less and less farmers but more urbanized poor. I believe computerization will help to make the government a bit more efficient. I think people will begin to qyuestion "puyai" culture.

Edited July 15, 2007 by lannarebirth

[bingobongo]

in 10 years Thailand will remain a third world dictatorship where the poor will remain poor and the rich will continue to subjugate the uneducated and destitute.....welcome to your police state

it will however remain a playground for foreigners with money and a haven for those trying to run away from themselves either through identity crisis or midlife crisis

Edited July 15, 2007 by bingobongo

[khunmarc]

Recently I began assisting someone in the groundwork of what will be a major investment of both time and money. This project will not likely be profitable for many years. This has started me to imagine what Thailand might be like ten years from now.

I am certainly just a punter, but I can still make a guess. Here is what I think will happen; barring any major shift in world politics or in Thai philosophy.

-Mainstream Media will remain the pawn of government, but underground media and upstart media will begin to take prominence.

-Government will continue to approximate a democratic system but the power will remain with the elite. Business interests will eventually dictate the direction of government once again.

-The gap between upper and lower class will widen, with no substantial changes in middle class.

-Thailand will have fallen behind Vietnam in international trade and will be struggling to regain its Asian tiger status.

-Tourism will have shifted to primarily Asian customers, China, Korea, Russia, and Japan. Thailand will become a destination for the elite traveler. Sorry cheap Charlie, Cambodia is calling.

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish. What is left will become something more corporate and organized (out of the pan and into the fire).

-The southern conflict will continue despite various attempts to settle the dispute. Some regions will be handed special status (self governance) in an attempt to reduce the violence.

-Education will improve through the globalization of information.

This is just an opinion. I put it here so I could hear your opinions.

Maybe Thailand is heading for a renaissance or perhaps a crushing dictatorship.

What do you say?

some good possibilities there...

but one you miss is thailand maybe burried under garbage is high on my list since they keep assuming plastic goes away the same way bananna leaves do

pollution ,industrial,noise car fumes will be even worst then now and they talking about going nuclear !!!! Thailand could become a nuclear by-products free market in a hurry

I can see tourism moving to other area with the ever climbing visa cost to go to the LOS unfortunatly the back packers usually spend their little cash closer to the base then the high end suitcases packers

the southern troubles will have long moved outside of their home area to the rest of Thailand therefore keeping the military closer to power

corruption will still be florishing as a main income source for the powers at be...

your prediction about the sex trade ...... I have to laugh about that one LOL

as long as there is men in Thailand it will only get bigger

education.... same thing there as long as you can sleep or buy your grade you will get graduates that dont know anything but I guess this just tie in with corruption

Democracy as we understand it in the West will never happen in a society that obey to a class system

food for tought I hope eh

[RagingBrit]

OK, this is very interesting. To try and predict what it is going to be like in Thailand ten years ahead, lets take a peek of what life here was like for farangs ten years ago, using my experiences.

Thai people used to stare and point at farangs as if they just landed from the planet Venus, even in the towns.

My cost of living expenses for myself & including family, doing well at 8000 baht per month. These days even by cutting down, spend 24000 baht per month.

Ten years ago opportunities for cheap sex everywhere. Many Thai brothel houses in villages and in the main towns. Hardly any restrictions on bar/club closing times, girls could pose and dance in the nud_e, drinks average 40 to 60 baht. Aids was rife, dropping like flies.

I agree with canuckamuck regarding the sex industry. I think the government will try and attract what they consider to be elite tourists, probably meaning elderly Americans who play golf, go on expensive tours and go to bed at 9.00pm. The sex industry will become more commercialised, almost clinical falling under the cloaks of big companies, mainly catering for rich Japanese and far eastern businessmen, pushing out the cheap bars & massage parlours.

Makros was the main shopping supermarket chain for farangs. Having a Makro card was almost as posh as owning an American Express card.

More choice of foods and International goods in the stores these days. Ten years ago could not find in Thailand, Cadburys chocolate, HP sauce, cheese a rarity, bread only served in certain stores.

One night in hospital ten years ago, average for minor ailment about 700 baht in a good hospital. These days can cost up to 5000 baht.

Beggars practically on every street corner, especially in the main towns. Farangs would often be followed in the street by a string of beggars holding out their hands or trying to sell them things.

Still could see many Thais riding bicycles and many of those annoying pedal rickshaws as a main mode of local transport.

Surprisingly, land and property prices plus rents outside of main Bangkok & Phuket haven't increased much in the last ten years.

Driving standards in Thailand although still every man for himself on the roads, has improved much over the years.

Annualizing what has changed in Thailand within the last ten years, the biggest problems facing foreign residents in the next ten years will be tightening up of visa regulations due to undesirables coming in and out of the Kingdom on visa runs and inflationary, cost of living maybe increasing by 33%, especially going to hit hard those already living here who haven't or are not planning for the future.

Thanks canuckamuck, great post.

Edited July 15, 2007 by RagingBrit

[Johpa]

JR Texas, can you please post your verified prediction accuracy rate for the last 30 years? I know you wont. So I am looking for my handy elephant sized grain of salt after reading your predictions.

I see you are from Texas, land of tall tales.

Did you advise Bush on his wonderful Iraq war predictions too?

What a dumb comment.

You do realize that Texas has over 20 million people, many of which are not inbred rednecks, but intelligent professionals, artists, and industrialists?

I believe the more correct formulation of the sentence above should be:

You do realize that Texas has over 20 million people, a few of which are not inbred rednecks, but intelligent professionals, artists, and industrialists?

[puipuitom]

I generally agree with his assessment but perhaps not for the food industry. Personally, I just couldn't imagine buying foodstuffs in any quantity from China. They'd sell you flour and call it baby formula to make an extra few Yuan. Wouldn't matter a bit to them if your baby died.

Domestic: I agree. Export: not by far !

CIQ ( Chinese Institute of Quality) inspects EVERY outgoing shipment from Mainland China. I even had problems getting out an industrial food pack with only a code printed on, so no "best before / expiry date".

As soon as was found out some rice products had 6 out of 10,000 grains GMO rice, the Chinese stopped ALL EXPORTS of rice products. You think Thailand would ever do that, with whatever product for whatever reason ?

There IS even no outgoing inspection in TH. DEP is only to INCREASE exports, never to guard for right quality

Yes, out of 600,000 containers arriving in Rotterdam alone from China per year some could hold bad products.

And when rubbish supplied Chinese government is harsh. Swindled in huge scale, you can be sentenced to death in China. And be carried out ! (Mr. Zheng Xiaoyu)

Ever heard a big shot in Thailand is brought into court ? There are several Thai companies I donot accept for any product as supplier, because their highest boss is no more as a crook

From Thailand: leaking drink cans: 6 containers. Confirmed by Thai Embassy in Netherlands. Destructed.

Mango slices: sour. Could throw away 300 crt

Sauces bottles: less content as promised, confirmed and declared. Even additives not declared at all and above max level EU ( saccharine instead of sugar)

Lychees: last year's crop at least, so brown fruits. Happily my Thai sourcing manager was warned in time by an former colleague.

Coconut milk: wrong ingredient declaration. Production date instead of best before date. Container back to TH, but Thai staff who organised that, was fired the next day.

Coconut milk powder: same: very "creative" additives declaration even allergene sulphite "forgotten" (so: re-labelling as below max level )

Canned sardines: falsified EU approval number, so no import possible into EU

Baby corn: crop over one year ago, so less yellow colour

Rice vermicelli: allergene sulphite "forgotten ", so destruction

Grinded red chili paste: wrong preservatives, so destruction

Fruit juice: 25 % fruit on the label, but in reality NO FRUIT PART IN AT ALL.

Fish sauce for fraudulous histamine level ( max: 200ppm allowed, on docs 170, reality above 350 )

Ever heard of a Thai company paying a (part of) the damage claim ? I am since 1976 in the food business, also from Thailand. Started in 1995 my own company, but till now ... NONE.

From China: product not good? We wil replace for the price you can sell in the market the -according your opinion- sub-standard product.

I see one after the other customer of mine asking for Chinese products.

[chinthee]

Thai trade service again brings a real world perspective to this issue. The Chinese will do anything to comply with any country import standard. There is no way, in any way, for the Thais to compete with the aggresiveness we see from China...period.

[lannarebirth]

IEver heard of a Thai company paying a (part of) the damage claim ? I am since 1976 in the food business, also from Thailand. Started in 1995 my own company, but till now ... NONE.

From China: product not good? We wil replace for the price you can sell in the market the -according your opinion- sub-standard product.

I see one after the other customer of mine asking for Chinese products.

I can't defend Thai business practices, quality control measures or government oversight (or lack thereof). I was just taken aback by your belief that China wasn't at least as bad .

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/18/business...973&ei=5070

[solo siam]

Thai trade service again brings a real world perspective to this issue. The Chinese will do anything to comply with any country import standard. There is no way, in any way, for the Thais to compete with the aggresiveness we see from China...period.

So why are there some really big problems with the Chinese exporting Chalk as Milk Powder and numerous other problems, Saying you will comply and actually getting those involved to comply are very different things. Thailand on the whole has a very good record for providing REAL food, supplying foodstuffs worldwide to many different economies - I can see Thailand EASILY competing with China.

I can easily see the USA or others limiting imports from China, which leaves a massive gap for a similar economy (with a significantly better reputation in the field) to pick up the slack.

[chinthee]

Thai trade service again brings a real world perspective to this issue. The Chinese will do anything to comply with any country import standard. There is no way, in any way, for the Thais to compete with the aggresiveness we see from China...period.

So why are there some really big problems with the Chinese exporting Chalk as Milk Powder and numerous other problems, Saying you will comply and actually getting those involved to comply are very different things. Thailand on the whole has a very good record for providing REAL food, supplying foodstuffs worldwide to many different economies - I can see Thailand EASILY competing with China.

I can easily see the USA or others limiting imports from China, which leaves a massive gap for a similar economy (with a significantly better reputation in the field) to pick up the slack.

Thailand has no chance and no face whatsoever against the Chinese juggarnaut export engine. Whatever problems exist with poison in toothpaste or whatever will be vastly overshadowed by the overwhelming power of the Chinese/American export machine. I don't have the figures, but someone does on tv, and any "good record" Thailand has on exporting anything will be trampled by the Chinese monster. Does anyone doubt this?

[PeaceBlondie]

As a fellow Texan , I agree with a tiny portion of what Dr. Dr. JR Texas claims, but from what I read, his first premise is a balloon that bepo has already popped. There is no population explosion in Thailand; it is imploding, and nobody's paying attention. A demographical Thailand with 20% elderly Thais needing care from children who don't exist, an economy that will not expand unless they allow all the Laotians, Burmese and Khmers to do the work, an educational system that couldn't train workers for the 21st century....wait a minute, I sound too negative. Well, sometimes I can believe that we're on the eve of destruction. I see Thailand in year 2560 as being a constitutional monarchy run by the elite, and lots of Thai families still riding motorcycles bareheaded, but smiling and enjoying tropical life. I see an expatriate population of people on suitable retirement incomes and leuk krung and third generation fourth-krung. I see people still eating delicious, spicy, beautiful Thai food.

[Jingthing]

Jingthing:

Mr Spook said your invites in the mail

thanxs for ponying up .

OK, this guy says human extinction within 100 years. Sounds a bit optimistic. We'll all be dead by then, so again, enjoy. Just trying to add some perspective to this Thailand in 10 years pipe smoking.

http://dc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/114245/index.php

"Human extinction within 100 years warns scientist"

A top New Zealand researcher has used a prestigious award ceremony in Christchurch to warn that humans face extinction by the end of the century. "After 40 years, I'm part of a huge community of scientists who have become alarmed with our discovery, that we know from our knowledge of the ancient past, that if we continue our present growth path, we are facing extinction," Barrett said. "Not in millions of years, or even millennia, but by the end of this century."

[solo siam]

Thai trade service again brings a real world perspective to this issue. The Chinese will do anything to comply with any country import standard. There is no way, in any way, for the Thais to compete with the aggresiveness we see from China...period.

So why are there some really big problems with the Chinese exporting Chalk as Milk Powder and numerous other problems, Saying you will comply and actually getting those involved to comply are very different things. Thailand on the whole has a very good record for providing REAL food, supplying foodstuffs worldwide to many different economies - I can see Thailand EASILY competing with China.

I can easily see the USA or others limiting imports from China, which leaves a massive gap for a similar economy (with a significantly better reputation in the field) to pick up the slack.

Thailand has no chance and no face whatsoever against the Chinese juggarnaut export engine. Whatever problems exist with poison in toothpaste or whatever will be vastly overshadowed by the overwhelming power of the Chinese/American export machine. I don't have the figures, but someone does on tv, and any "good record" Thailand has on exporting anything will be trampled by the Chinese monster. Does anyone doubt this?

Yes I doubt this....

China is already facing problems with its factory workers salaries (or the fact that a lot of employees are enslaved etc..) and its eco-friendliness.

Also I don't see the competition myself seeing as the countries export COMPLETELY different things (I don't see China suddenly exporting Thai rice, Rubber, Pineapple, Fish Prawns, Precious stones etc..) - China just doesn't have the climate or geographical environment to compete with many of the Thai exports. China would struggle to compete with Thailand even in the automotive sector, and TBH there's not a lot to be gained from moving production to China*.

Thailand is one of the worlds TOP 5 exporters of raw foodstuffs, Farm goods (especially thos ethat only survive in a particular climate) are not easy to ramp up on production, additionally Thailand has a VERY GOOD reputation for the taste of their food, and quality etc... China certainly does not.

* You may site Chinese consumption as one reason, but the same time that Chinese consumptin of pickup trucks hits a massive high, they are probably already paying their workers way too much to remain comptetitive in the aforementioned production of said good.

[chinthee]

edited

Edited July 15, 2007 by chinthee

[Thehedonist]

-The current sex trade as it looks today will almost vanish.

I knew that would seem the most unlikely, But I see the low end sea side-tourists being forced out by better resorts. It seems a bit silly to continue to use top dollar real estate for low profit exchanges. It could be that the sexpats simply get pushed to new areas and continue as always. But I think spots like Pattaya will increase development until known as "Little Russia by the Sea". Then the mob will handle the dating arrangements.

The reason I think that lower end tourists will disappear is because new areas are opening all the time in other countries, whereas in Thailand the industry is more mature with bigger players. I think budget travelers will simply choose to try new places, while hotels here compete for bigger fish. Maybe upcountry will remain affordable, but not the coast.

Pattaya has a certain reputation and justifyably so, that will be extremely hard for it ever to shake off, Pattaya is not and will not be anytime in the near future a holiday destination for families, i've lived here for over 4 years and lets be honest the beaches are shlt and the sex industry is in your face where ever you go.

There are so much cheap accomodation available in Pattaya, cheap food and drink, that i can not see the lower end tourists or foreigners ever leaving. While Sihanoukville maybe might become a viable alternative in years to come for certain people, Pattaya will still be their choice for years to come.

JR Texas: Very interesting question...........my job is to "predict the future." That is what I do for a living and have done so for over 30 years (for governments, NGOs, academic institutions). Here is what my crystal ball tells me:

Population growth coupled with the mechanization and centralization of the economy (and the collapse of the global economy starting in USA and spreading to China) will create havoc in Thailand.

The gap between rich and poor will widen. The labor supply problem (too many people and too few quality jobs) will increase in magnitude.

Global warming and water/electrical shortages will also have a negative impact.

Terrorism will increase and become far more violent than it is today. Instability in the south will grow and threaten the entire southern region of Thailand--including Phuket, Bangkok, and Pattaya-Jomtien. The real estate market will collapse.

All of the above will cause massive social chaos and instability. The government will try to keep the system afloat using the mainstream mass media and schools, but will fail (at some point, people who tell lies are no longer listened to).

Eventually, the general public will reach the conclusion that they have been fed a bunch of BS and will take action. This will, in part, involve a rising tide of xenophobia (the result of scapegoating as the govt. will try to blame foreigners for Thailand's problems).

Elderly expats will eventually be seen as a "burden" and the grandfathered laws will be abrogated (in effect, a purge will take place).

Sorry for the bad news......but the trends are already there. I have seen nothing over the past 30 years that would lead me to a different conclusion. So, enjoy things now.......

To the Great jr, the skeptic Septic, your posts crack me up ! any predictions for the rest of the world ?

You remind me of the weather men in the UK, that said we will all fry this summer,back early in the year (global warming) and most of Northern UK, has been under water ! all predictions for the future total bo..icks !

Well we are all in your hands are we not ? what country will GBJ Want to invade next ?

But I have taken on board what you said, and will continue to build my Ark on my modest 2500 acres down in deepest Dorset, Just a cabbage patch for you of course, and put on two Thai girls from Pattaya for good measure !

I forgot also, I must get in as many tips to Patters as I can, as the sex industry, is soon to close !

[puipuitom]

Thai trade service again brings a real world perspective to this issue. The Chinese will do anything to comply with any country import standard. There is no way, in any way, for the Thais to compete with the aggresiveness we see from China...period.

To give you an idea: Many Thai food suppliers stil donot fulfill ingredient declaration as requested by EU law (1984), donot have HACCP - certification ( since 1994 ! ) , forget BRC-IFS. Three Chinese export boards are already enlisted in the official EU discussions for new food regulations and adaptions.

In 1999 Thaland lost their GSP- import duty preferences into the EU, because ... their Ministry of Commerce didnot apply for renual ( too busy with new job at WTO ? )

So why are there some really big problems with the Chinese exporting Chalk as Milk Powder and numerous other problems, Saying you will comply and actually getting those involved to comply are very different things. Thailand on the whole has a very good record for providing REAL food, supplying foodstuffs worldwide to many different economies - I can see Thailand EASILY competing with China.

I can easily see the USA or others limiting imports from China, which leaves a massive gap for a similar economy (with a significantly better reputation in the field) to pick up the slack.

COMPLETELY AGREED !

Thailand has no chance and no face whatsoever against the Chinese juggarnaut export engine. Whatever problems exist with poison in toothpaste or whatever will be vastly overshadowed by the overwhelming power of the Chinese/American export machine. I don't have the figures, but someone does on tv, and any "good record" Thailand has on exporting anything will be trampled by the Chinese monster. Does anyone doubt this?

To buy or not to buy has NOTHING to do with the size of the country where the company is situated, but the performance, quality and price of the product ( service) offered. And a LOT improves with only: they need THIS, but I only have THAT, so how to fnd a way, both can live with.

My story is, so many Thais are educated with: the elder knows always better, never own thinking and improving, but " follow the BOZZ" or the elder, UNCTAD ( under no circumstance take any decission) as when wrong or cost money "you loose face', so better do nothing as no chance to loose face (only the order or the customer )

for instance: customer asks for 15 oz can, standard 20 oz. Chinese sales staff: can we make it ? Yes, so we accept order but only: 3 containers minimum. Thai sales staff: is it standard ? No ! Solly , no have". As dare not to disturb The BOZZ.

Yes, when the Chinese "make S h t" they do it well. Their jump in output went too fast and with too many products. Their Quality Assurance (QA) is not so well developped YET. see: "The state just doesn’t have the expertise to keep up with these things.”

The problems with Thai products are often solvable one-way-or-another at reasonable costs and done by the importer / customer as the incoming merchandise arrives just-not-in-time, so in a hurry to use. Nobody hears of that.

AND there are very good Thai suppliers too, I even can trust blindfolded. ( Still: quality report + 2 samples to test )

Last-but-not-least: every importer has also his responsabilities. Sorry, but distributing chalk powder being milk powder says also something about the qulaity assurance consiousness of importer himself. And a nation-wide recall says someting about the traceability performance of batch codes of that importer.

something like: close your eyes, donot spend much money on QA and God bless us all.

[chinthee]

Yes, Thai Trade Service. Where have you been? Do you live in Thailand? It's good to have someone like you here on the board.