‘No turning back’: how the Ukraine war has profoundly changed the EU

[Chomper Higgot]

13 hours ago, retarius said:

I've learned on here that there is no point in putting forward any reasoned arguments. The vast majority of folk on here are immune to reason. They get their news from the BBC and CNN and believe it implicitly, and do no further reading around the subject. Most have lived in Thailand for years and years and can hardly speak a word of the language. Intellectual dullards, dead from the neck up.

And if your string of assumptions are as false as they are baseless, the entirety of your argument evaporates.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

18 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

100% correct.

 

Only thing certain about a war is that it does end, eventually, even if it goes on for 100 years ( Europe middle ages ).

Given that Ukraine depends entirely on western nations to continue the war, and given that western donor countries are broke, I can't see this war lasting more than one more year, or less.

Pinned.

[sirineou]

30 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given that Ukraine depends entirely on western nations to continue the war, and given that western donor countries are broke, I can't see this war lasting more than one more year, or less.

Unless saner minds prevail , which is very unlikely, unfortunately it will turn into another cold war. Ukraine will loss 1/3 of it's territory in the eastern provinces, Russia will have it's buffer  zone and none of us will live long enough to see the end of this. With plenty of pain for  everyone to go around. 

 

   Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace. By Gore vidal is an interested read though a bit dated  (2002) 

 

[sirineou]

59 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I agree that not all on here are "bad" people, but some go too far with the attacks on those that disagree with them.

All that I have met so far are fine people and would have no problem cracking a beer with any of them.

It is the anonymity of the forum that allows people to behave in ways they normally would not. Same people on FB Groups, of a few I am a member, with our name and picture , And it's a totally different environment. 

   And let's not be holier than thou we all had our moments at times. 

I once had been warned by an administrator to curve the snark , and I got all indignant,"me snark ? how dare you" ???? but in retrospect he was right and I was wrong, I do have a tendency towards a snarkiness and I try to contain it , not always success.  

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

First of all my reply started with The accusation that our side did not provide any links, yet I have provided multiple links in support of what I was saying, and your side has provided ZERO!! all I get is opinion, which like the proverbial bodily orifice we all have one.  

 

"The U.S. has already trained more than 3,100 Ukrainian troops on how to use and maintain certain weapons and other equipment, including howitzers, armored vehicles and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS. Other nations are also conducting training on the weapons they provide. Milley said the U.S. was doing this type of training prior to the Russian invasion last February"

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/16/1149372572/expanded-us-training-for-ukraine-forces-begins-in-germany

 

So anyway, It seems like I am doing all the heavy lifting why you all offer opinions. And a bit of spitting in the wind. Both unwise activities. 

History will prove who is wrong and who is right. 

 

First, I and others have been getting into back and forth debates with pro-Russian posters who ignore all requests to post credible sources for their claims.  I hadn't seen you post for a while.  I acknowledged that you posted links to sources, but these links aren't necessarily pertinent to the current situation.

 

Second, what has your source above got to do with your argument that the US somehow caused this war?  The war was well established at the time the your source.

 

Finally, what "opinions" have I posted without links that you consider in need of support?  Do you dispute that Russia invaded Ukraine?  That Ukraine has a right to choose allies?  That Russia has been motivating its neighbors to seek allies against Russian aggression?  I've already posted a link discrediting your claim about a promise of no eastern expansion of NATO, what more do you want?

Edited October 9, 2023 by heybruce

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

First, I and others have been getting into back and forth debates with pro-Russian posters who ignore all requests to post credible sources for their claims.  I hadn't seen you post for a while.  I acknowledged that you posted links to sources, but these links aren't necessarily pertinent to the current situation.

You are right , I try to avoid these type of threads, It seem to me that most pasters in these threads . regardless of the orientation have made up their minds and are simply shouting at each other. 

And most of the argument is on who is willing what, and who did what to who. 

Have the Russians done some nasty stuff? of course they have this is war, Are the Ukranians doing some nasty stuff also? 

It sounds to me like a bunch of guys arguing about yesterday's football game. 

Who is winning? who is losing? everyone is losing except  the US. The US is degrading Russian military capability on the cheap. Really cheap as far as these things go. US petrochemicals are making a killing selling natural gas  to Europe double what the Europeans  were paying to the Russians. 

 

The current situation? What is the current situation

Russia has invaded Ukraine for arguable reasons, and as far as I know the situation remains the same. Russians are still invading Ukraine. 

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

Second, what has your source above got to do with your argument that the US somehow caused this war?  The war was well established at the time the your source.

The invaded February 24, 2022.

Assurances against NATO expansion were given to the Russians 1990

Ten years later they reneged. 

The  Bucharest NATO summit that invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO happened in 2008

Before the invasion the US was training Ukrainians 

" Milley said the U.S. was doing this type of training prior to the Russian invasion last February" 

These and many other things happened prior to the invasion. 

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

Finally, what "opinions" have I posted without links that you consider in need of support? 

It is my opinion that Russia was forced in invading for the reasons I posted supported by links to credible sources 

 

You disagreed in many respects yet you posted no supporting evidence and links

I think it was you who said that NATO expansion was nessacery (I paraphrase) because neighboring countries were fearful of Russian invasion.  , what evidence is there  that the Russians had plans to invade European countries? 

for Christ's sake! Russia could not invade and occupy Ukraine yet it would invade and occupy European countries? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I think it was you who said that NATO expansion was nessacery (I paraphrase) because neighboring countries were fearful of Russian invasion.  , what evidence is there  that the Russians had plans to invade European countries? 

for Christ's sake! Russia could not invade and occupy Ukraine yet it would invade and occupy European countries? 

You are so right about that.

 

I fail to understand how any that saw the failure of Russia to take the capital could even imagine that Russia had the capability to invade a NATO country.

 

I guess they need a reason to continue to support this proxy war.

[heybruce]

17 minutes ago, sirineou said:

You are right , I try to avoid these type of threads, It seem to me that most pasters in these threads . regardless of the orientation have made up their minds and are simply shouting at each other. 

And most of the argument is on who is willing what, and who did what to who. 

Have the Russians done some nasty stuff? of course they have this is war, Are the Ukranians doing some nasty stuff also? 

It sounds to me like a bunch of guys arguing about yesterday's football game. 

Who is winning? who is losing? everyone is losing except  the US. The US is degrading Russian military capability on the cheap. Really cheap as far as these things go. US petrochemicals are making a killing selling natural gas  to Europe double what the Europeans  were paying to the Russians. 

 

The current situation? What is the current situation

Russia has invaded Ukraine for arguable reasons, and as far as I know the situation remains the same. Russians are still invading Ukraine. 

The invaded February 24, 2022.

Assurances against NATO expansion were given to the Russians 1990

Ten years later they reneged. 

The  Bucharest NATO summit that invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO happened in 2008

Before the invasion the US was training Ukrainians 

" Milley said the U.S. was doing this type of training prior to the Russian invasion last February" 

These and many other things happened prior to the invasion. 

It is my opinion that Russia was forced in invading for the reasons I posted supported by links to credible sources 

 

You disagreed in many respects yet you posted no supporting evidence and links

I think it was you who said that NATO expansion was nessacery (I paraphrase) because neighboring countries were fearful of Russian invasion.  , what evidence is there  that the Russians had plans to invade European countries? 

for Christ's sake! Russia could not invade and occupy Ukraine yet it would invade and occupy European countries?

Once again, I initially replied to you in response to your claim:

 

"I have methodically , advanced the theory that Russia was forced in this war by NATO expansion, that warning were given to the west that if the USA  persist in trying to bring Ukraine in it's sphere of influence."

 

Now it appears that you have changed your position to "Russia has invaded Ukraine for arguable reasons".  I suppose that's progress.

 

How has expanding NATO forced war upon Russia? 

 

You make much of the fact that in 2008 Ukraine was invited to join NATO.  You neglect the fact that as of 2022, when the invasion began, Ukraine had not joined NATO and had no timeline for doing so.  That's because the invitation to join was highly conditional and had no projected time for membership.

 

I never said that NATO expansion was necessary for Europe or NATO.  I posted that some of Russia's neighbors felt in necessary to join a defensive alliance to protect themselves from Russia.  Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are example of these countries.  Do I need to post links to sources showing Russian support for separatists in these countries?  Do you doubt that they are threatened by Russia?

 

You present NATO expansion as if it resulted from a recruiting drive by NATO.  It didn't.  NATO doesn't recruit members, other countries lobby long and hard to join NATO.  The only country that "recruits" for NATO (inadvertently) is Russia.  NATO's most recent expansion is evidence of that.  Do I need to post links showing that Finland joined NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine?

 

"Assurances against NATO expansion were given to the Russians 1990"

 

I provided a source showing that was not true.  Here it is again:  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

 

Yet you repeat the lie.  Where is your source showing it is true?

 

You provided unconvincing and in one case untrue reasons why you think Russia was forced to start this war.  I've refuted them.  You have not provided any valid arguments against what I have posted. 

[sirineou]

5 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Now it appears that you have changed your position to "Russia has invaded Ukraine for arguable reasons".  I suppose that's progress.

Regardless of what reasons  you or I claim reasonable minds should always

 

the the claims are arguable, otherwise we would not be arguing.   

9 minutes ago, heybruce said:

You make much of the fact that in 2008 Ukraine was invited to join NATO.  You neglect the fact that as of 2022, when the invasion began, Ukraine had not joined NATO and had no timeline for doing so. 

No one , including me claims that Ukraine was a member of NATO when the invasion took place . or that it is now. 

But the US was training Ukrainian troops, what do you think the US was training Ukrainians for. the merits of personal hygiene? 

"

Ukraine holds military drills with U.S. forces, NATO allies

Reuters

September 20, 2021  5:59 PM

" 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-holds-military-drills-with-us-forces-nato-allies-2021-09-20/#:~:text=YAVORIV%2C Ukraine%2C Sept 20 (,drills that alarmed the West.  

 

25 minutes ago, heybruce said:

I provided a source showing that was not true.  Here it is again:  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

"Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major and Woerner

On the 12 December 2017 the National Security Archive at George Washington University posted online 30 declassified US, Soviet, German, British and French documents revealing a torrent of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991. Some of the documents have been publicly available for several years, others have been revealed as a result of Freedom of Information requests for the study. See the briefing here."

"US Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on 9 February 1990 was only part of a cascade of similar assurances."

https://natowatch.org/newsbriefs/2018/how-gorbachev-was-misled-over-assurances-against-nato-expansion

 

 

"Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu)."

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

 

Link to declassified  documents below, please see section 8

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16112-document-01-u-s-embassy-bonn-confidential-cable

 

[heybruce]

42 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Regardless of what reasons  you or I claim reasonable minds should always

 

the the claims are arguable, otherwise we would not be arguing.   

No one , including me claims that Ukraine was a member of NATO when the invasion took place . or that it is now. 

But the US was training Ukrainian troops, what do you think the US was training Ukrainians for. the merits of personal hygiene? 

"

Ukraine holds military drills with U.S. forces, NATO allies

Reuters

September 20, 2021  5:59 PM

" 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-holds-military-drills-with-us-forces-nato-allies-2021-09-20/#:~:text=YAVORIV%2C Ukraine%2C Sept 20 (,drills that alarmed the West.  

 

"Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major and Woerner

On the 12 December 2017 the National Security Archive at George Washington University posted online 30 declassified US, Soviet, German, British and French documents revealing a torrent of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991. Some of the documents have been publicly available for several years, others have been revealed as a result of Freedom of Information requests for the study. See the briefing here."

"US Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on 9 February 1990 was only part of a cascade of similar assurances."

https://natowatch.org/newsbriefs/2018/how-gorbachev-was-misled-over-assurances-against-nato-expansion

 

 

"Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu)."

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

 

Link to declassified  documents below, please see section 8

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16112-document-01-u-s-embassy-bonn-confidential-cable

 

The US was training soldiers in Ukraine after 2014 because Ukraine feared further Russian aggression.  Do you think the US was training these soldiers so they could invade Russia? 

 

Regarding your "proof" of western assurance, you bring up things said during negotiations.  Many things are said, retracted, contradicted, repeated, etc. during negotiations.  What matters is the final signed agreement.  There was never an agreement that NATO would not expand.

 

"There is an ongoing historical debate over comments that Western leaders, including Baker, made during post-Cold War negotiations, and whether what they said amounted to assurances that NATO would refrain from welcoming in countries closer to modern-day Russia. 

But NATO as an organization made no such pledge, and the formal agreement signed at the end of those negotiations said nothing about the alliance not expanding eastward."  https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/

 

Some of Russia's neighbors want to join NATO because Russia threatens its neighbors.  If Russia would stop threatening its neighbors, NATO expansion would stop.  However this would prevent Putin from expanding the Russian empire.  He doesn't want that to happen.

Edited October 9, 2023 by heybruce

[JonnyF]

It certainly seems the war in Ukraine is creating a lot of issues for the powerhouse EU economy, Germany.

 

It would seem that the migration and energy policies are not as popular amongst the electorate as certain left wing political groups would have us believe. I wonder how long they can afford to continue with this madness. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67049498

 

[sirineou]

1 hour ago, heybruce said:

The US was training soldiers in Ukraine after 2014 because Ukraine feared further Russian aggression.  Do you think the US was training these soldiers so they could invade Russia? 

We are getting nowhere with this ?

[Eric Loh]

56 minutes ago, sirineou said:

We are getting nowhere with this ?

Let's go back to the basic as defined by Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter that prohibits the threat and use of force and calls on all Members to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of other States. 

[sirineou]

13 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Let's go back to the basic as defined by Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter that prohibits the threat and use of force and calls on all Members to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of other States. 

 

IMO it is a very nice Article and wish all countries in the world lived by it, as I am sure you do also . I also like rainbows, Unicorns and long walks by the beach. 

No sure how this affects what I have said, concerning the reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. 

[placeholder]

17 hours ago, sirineou said:

 

"Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu)."

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

 

Did NATO Promise Not To Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

 

[sirineou]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Did NATO Promise Not To Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

 

First of all , you are all fixating on the wrong thing, which is part of the reason why I try to stay away from threads such as this. Whether there was a promise or not, does not change the reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine .

It is simply a deflection to take us down a different path. 

 

Everyone in opposition to the assertion that promises of no NATO expansion produces the article you have posted, but if you look at the date of the article you will see that it was published in Non. 6th 2014  where the documents concerning NATO expansion promises were declassified December 12, 2017 . 

The statement made by Dietrich Genscher  in coordination with Helmut Kohl, and by James Baker  are part of the public record..

Was there a treaty? of course there was not, otherwise we would not be having this conversation, But that is not what I said, I sad "reasurances" 

IMO enough said about this , at least by me. 

 

 

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

 

IMO it is a very nice Article and wish all countries in the world lived by it, as I am sure you do also . I also like rainbows, Unicorns and long walks by the beach. 

No sure how this affects what I have said, concerning the reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. 

What you posted regarding the reasons Russia invaded Ukraine was nonsense.  Russia has been threatening, invading or co-opting corrupt leaders along its borders since shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union, all in an attempt to recreate the Russian empire as it existed under the USSR. 

 

That was the reason for the invasion of Ukraine.  That and a need for Putin to create an external enemy to distract the Russian people from the stagnant economy and corrupt government he was leading.

[sirineou]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

What you posted regarding the reasons Russia invaded Ukraine was nonsense.  Russia has been threatening, invading or co-opting corrupt leaders along its borders since shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union, all in an attempt to recreate the Russian empire as it existed under the USSR. 

That is your opinion,

But I never called your opinion nonsense 

Which an other reason why I stay our of these threads.

 

[heybruce]

6 hours ago, sirineou said:

That is your opinion,

But I never called your opinion nonsense 

Which an other reason why I stay our of these threads.

 

Let's try it this way:

 

Ukraine wanted to join a defensive alliance that only took military action if one of its members were attacked.

 

How did this justify Russia invading Ukraine?

 

The only answer I can think of is that Putin wanted to expand the Russian empire and saw Ukraine joining NATO as an impediment to that expansion.  That's why Putin's invasion has caused so many nations to urgently seek membership in NATO.

 

Countries join defensive alliances in hopes of avoiding war.  Putin opposes defensive alliances because he sees aggression and war as a means to accomplish his ends.

 

Yet you insist the defensive alliance is somehow responsible for Russia invading Ukraine.