Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

If that's all you have, please ignore me. 

 

Weak

Granted.

[placeholder]

15 hours ago, Morch said:

Status Quo?

 

Jordan annexed the West Bank. The Egyptians at one point incorporated the Gaza Strip as part of the UAR. They also propped up a puppet Palestinian government, then tossed it aside. Later on, with the formation of the PLO, Egypt promised to give over control of the Gaza Strip. Never happened. As for the Egyptian military rule of the Gaza Strip being benign - amusing.

 

The main point remains - people on here go on and on about decades of Palestinians yearning for independence, freedom and sovereignty. In effect, they have exhibited less enthusiasm toward these things than could have been expected.

 

 

Yes. Jordan annexed the West Bank. And how did life change for the residents? Simply an exchange of one unelected government for another. What made a Palestinian independent state an urgent matter was the disgraceful treatment of the Palestinians by the Israelis. As I pointed out before, unlike the Israelis the Jordanians didn't destroy Palestinian villages and confiscate their land. They didn't govern Palestinians under one set of laws and Jordanians under another. They didn't make it exceedingly difficult for Palestinians to set up businesses while supporting . They didn't apply one set of rules for access to water for the Palestinians and another set for Jordanians. And so on land so forth. In fact, under the Jordanian rule, Palestinians were citizens of Jordan. So applying different laws and rules was out of the question. Under Israeli rule, citizenship isn't even on offer.

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yes. Jordan annexed the West Bank. And how did life change for the residents? Simply an exchange of one unelected government for another. What made a Palestinian independent state an urgent matter was the disgraceful treatment of the Palestinians by the Israelis. As I pointed out before, unlike the Israelis the Jordanians didn't destroy Palestinian villages and confiscate their land. They didn't govern Palestinians under one set of laws and Jordanians under another. They didn't make it exceedingly difficult for Palestinians to set up businesses while supporting . They didn't apply one set of rules for access to water for the Palestinians and another set for Jordanians. And so on land so forth. In fact, under the Jordanian rule, Palestinians were citizens of Jordan. So applying different laws and rules was out of the question. Under Israeli rule, citizenship isn't even on offer.

You said Jordan and Egypt went on with the Status Quo. Historical fact is different. You want to get into one of your usual pointless arguments, that's up to you.

 

Notice you skipped the Egypt part. Nice.

 

The fact remains that Palestinians did not feel the need to have their own state. There was no struggle or real effort to get there. Then we have loads of posts on these 'discussions' alleging Palestinians as motivated for this since 1947 or even prior.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

You said Jordan and Egypt went on with the Status Quo. Historical fact is different. You want to get into one of your usual pointless arguments, that's up to you.

 

Notice you skipped the Egypt part. Nice.

 

The fact remains that Palestinians did not feel the need to have their own state. There was no struggle or real effort to get there. Then we have loads of posts on these 'discussions' alleging Palestinians as motivated for this since 1947 or even prior.

And once again you avoid referencing the toxic conditions created by Israel that led to these horrors.

[transam]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And once again you avoid referencing the toxic conditions created by Israel that led to these horrors.

So, you would murder toddlers, old ladies etc, if you were upset about your countries problems...? 🥴

[placeholder]

32 minutes ago, transam said:

So, you would murder toddlers, old ladies etc, if you were upset about your countries problems...? 🥴

What in my statement indicates any approval of the murder of old ladies, etc?

Toxic conditions create monsters.

[Morch]

48 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And once again you avoid referencing the toxic conditions created by Israel that led to these horrors.

No, and I have enough posts under my belt on this, as you well know. What this is, is me refusing to get sucked into one of your usual pointless arguments. These usually occur when you raise a side issue, get corrected and cannot abide the fact.

 

[transam]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What in my statement indicates any approval of the murder of old ladies, etc?

Toxic conditions create monsters.

The conditions are of their own making, if they want terrorist rulers, they voted for it, and got it.

But if you want to make excuses for a bunch of murders taking things out on civilians with their hit-and-run stuff, that is up to you, and noted. 🥴

[placnx]

15 hours ago, Morch said:

Your main point was about that Palestinian should be offered compensation. It was answered. You chose to address a related side issue mentioned instead.

 

Your generalization is cute, but not necessarily correct or germane. There were wealthy Jews living in Arab countries and there were poor ones. Given that they had to let go of property and possessions meant that they generally arrived poor. I don't think that the Palestinian refugees were overall richer, many were poor farmers.

 

If you want to push that 'colonial sponsors' nonsense, you'll have to find someone else to discuss this with.

I was responding to the claim that the expulsion of Jews from Arab/Muslim lands cancels out any obligation for Israel to compensate for around 750,000 Palestinans who fled or were expelled from Israel in the 1947-8 Nakba. Looking at official Israeli figures, the case of Algeria shows that 10000 people emigrated in 1948-58, while in the next decade, following Algerian independence, nearly the entire Jewish population of 130,000 emigrated to France, not Israel. So logically compensation for this would be a matter between France and Algeria and have no bearing on Israel's excuse for not compensating dispossed Palestinians. From the beginning compensation for Palestinians, if not repatriation, has been an issue of international concern: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_194

 

In the present situation, the veto of the US, blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza, will apparently end up having humanitarian aid being discussed and voted in the General Assembly, in the same way as happened with Russia's invasion of Ukraine where the Security Council was paralyzed by the Russian veto.

 

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

You said Jordan and Egypt went on with the Status Quo. Historical fact is different. You want to get into one of your usual pointless arguments, that's up to you.

 

Notice you skipped the Egypt part. Nice.

 

The fact remains that Palestinians did not feel the need to have their own state. There was no struggle or real effort to get there. Then we have loads of posts on these 'discussions' alleging Palestinians as motivated for this since 1947 or even prior.

How could the Palestinians have a state when they had no means to defend themselves against Israel? They could only survive with Egypt's and Jordan's protection. A two-state solution will only ever happen if Israel is forced by international opprobrium to let it happen, not by negotiations between Goliath, i.e. Israel, and David.

 

In 1967, again Palestinians were forced to flee to Jordan and cannot return to the West Bank.

[Nick Carter icp]

Just now, placnx said:

How could the Palestinians have a state when they had no means to defend themselves against Israel? They could only survive with Egypt's and Jordan's protection. A two-state solution will only ever happen if Israel is forced by international opprobrium to let it happen, not by negotiations between Goliath, i.e. Israel, and David.

 

In 1967, again Palestinians were forced to flee to Jordan and cannot return to the West Bank.

Why doesn't the rest of the World make it happen ?

[Nick Carter icp]

On 10/19/2023 at 12:27 PM, placnx said:

If there could be an analysis, most Jewish immigrants from Arab countries were poor Sephardis,

Arab immigrants from the Middle Est  to Israel left behind about 300 Billion U.S $ worth or real estate behind when they fled to Israel , which is still owed to them 

[Morch]

29 minutes ago, placnx said:

How could the Palestinians have a state when they had no means to defend themselves against Israel? They could only survive with Egypt's and Jordan's protection. A two-state solution will only ever happen if Israel is forced by international opprobrium to let it happen, not by negotiations between Goliath, i.e. Israel, and David.

 

In 1967, again Palestinians were forced to flee to Jordan and cannot return to the West Bank.

Oh, we're doing the helpless, clueless, poor Palestinians thing, again?

Nothing prevented the Palestinians from working toward setting a proper infrastructure (economical, military, political) to a future state before 1947. They did not organize in an efficient manner, they did not have a sense of unity. The Jews, on the other hand, did all that.  And even post 1948 - what prevented the Palestinians from doing so? They could have set up their country and make ready for the next round. Didn't happen either. Nor did their Arab sponsor care to support them on this level.

 

What you reference may apply from 1967. As to that, the basic argument remains - even without military force to match Israel's the Palestinians' best bet at the time was to go the diplomatic way. The choice made was to stick with a hopeless 'struggle' and rejectionism.

 

Israel did its share to oppress the Palestinians. That's was never denied on any of my posts. But its impossible to pin all that's bad in Palestinian past, present and future on Israel. There ought to be a measure of accountability, or at the very least, introspection.

 

The slim prospect for a two state solution seems another victim of the Hamas attack.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, transam said:

The conditions are of their own making, if they want terrorist rulers, they voted for it, and got it.

But if you want to make excuses for a bunch of murders taking things out on civilians with their hit-and-run stuff, that is up to you, and noted. 🥴

Clearly, you are laughably uninformed about the conditions created by the Israelis. What's more, such atrocities are regular features of asymmetric warfare. For example, the ANC slaughtered farm families and set opponents alight by "necklacing" them with flaming tires. According to your way of thinking, that lets apartheid in South Africa off the hook. Apparently, it was black South africans who created the conditions that led to this brutality.

Toxic conditions create opportunities for sociopaths and psychopaths to flourish. As long as the conditions persist, so will the behavior.

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Why doesn't the rest of the World make it happen ?

Same question was asked in the 1980s regarding South Africa. Reagan administration supported apartheid. US opposition is now the main obstacle for any démarche in the Security Council.

[Nick Carter icp]

2 minutes ago, placnx said:

Same question was asked in the 1980s regarding South Africa. Reagan administration supported apartheid. US opposition is now the main obstacle for any démarche in the Security Council.

The 15 members of the U.N security council all get one vote each and thus one Country alone cannot dictate to the other 14 Countries 

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Arab immigrants from the Middle Est  to Israel left behind about 300 Billion U.S $ worth or real estate behind when they fled to Israel , which is still owed to them 

You must mean Jewish immigrants, as Arabs are not allowed to immigrate to Israel. I covered that issue of Jewish people with more connections to the colonial country than Israel, that compensation would concern the country that received the people who left the Arab country in question, not necessarily Israel.

 

There are anecdotes of Jewish people making incredible claims of vast wealth, but how and when, if true, was that accumulated? Did they arrive in the vanguard of colonial powers, or were they among the majority whose ancestors lived many centuries in Arab & Muslim lands?

 

BTW Do you have a link for the $300 bn claim? That would average to about $500,000 per person! Is your number in 1948 Dollars or inflation adjusted?

[transam]

46 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Clearly, you are laughably uninformed about the conditions created by the Israelis. What's more, such atrocities are regular features of asymmetric warfare. For example, the ANC slaughtered farm families and set opponents alight by "necklacing" them with flaming tires. According to your way of thinking, that lets apartheid in South Africa off the hook. Apparently, it was black South africans who created the conditions that led to this brutality.

Toxic conditions create opportunities for sociopaths and psychopaths to flourish. As long as the conditions persist, so will the behavior.

Look, you don't Jew's, that's up to you, but don't tell me folk murder and chop up kids because of their situation, that is rollox........Stop making excuses for these terrorists, they come from the same mold as ISIS, kill anything that they don't like...........

And don't guess about me, you haven't got a clue............😒

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

You must mean Jewish immigrants, as Arabs are not allowed to immigrate to Israel. I covered that issue of Jewish people with more connections to the colonial country than Israel, that compensation would concern the country that received the people who left the Arab country in question, not necessarily Israel.

 

There are anecdotes of Jewish people making incredible claims of vast wealth, but how and when, if true, was that accumulated? Did they arrive in the vanguard of colonial powers, or were they among the majority whose ancestors lived many centuries in Arab & Muslim lands?

 

BTW Do you have a link for the $300 bn claim? That would average to about $500,000 per person! Is your number in 1948 Dollars or inflation adjusted?

Here :

 

 

"According to official Arab statistics, 856,000 Jews left their homes in Arab countries from 1948 until the early 1970s. Some 600,000 resettled in Israel,^[1] leaving behind property valued today at more than $300 billion.^[2][3] Jewish-owned real-estate left behind in Arab lands has been estimated at 100,000 square kilometers (four times the size of the State of Israel).^[1]"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews_Indigenous_to_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa

 

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

Oh, we're doing the helpless, clueless, poor Palestinians thing, again?

Nothing prevented the Palestinians from working toward setting a proper infrastructure (economical, military, political) to a future state before 1947. They did not organize in an efficient manner, they did not have a sense of unity. The Jews, on the other hand, did all that.  And even post 1948 - what prevented the Palestinians from doing so? They could have set up their country and make ready for the next round. Didn't happen either. Nor did their Arab sponsor care to support them on this level.

 

What you reference may apply from 1967. As to that, the basic argument remains - even without military force to match Israel's the Palestinians' best bet at the time was to go the diplomatic way. The choice made was to stick with a hopeless 'struggle' and rejectionism.

 

Israel did its share to oppress the Palestinians. That's was never denied on any of my posts. But its impossible to pin all that's bad in Palestinian past, present and future on Israel. There ought to be a measure of accountability, or at the very least, introspection.

 

The slim prospect for a two state solution seems another victim of the Hamas attack.

In the 1930s the Palestinians were disarmed by the British, while a British army officer and Christian Zionist named Orde Wingate trained Jewish commandos including Moshe Dayan into a precursor of the IDF. The program to expel the Palestinians was well-organized, and the British just wanted out in 1947. As I said before, they needed to be protected by Egypt and Jordan so a separate state was not feasible at the time.

 

As to whether the two-state solution is reborn, it depends on the Israeli ground assault and the world's perception of it.

[placnx]

31 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Here :

 

 

"According to official Arab statistics, 856,000 Jews left their homes in Arab countries from 1948 until the early 1970s. Some 600,000 resettled in Israel,^[1] leaving behind property valued today at more than $300 billion.^[2][3] Jewish-owned real-estate left behind in Arab lands has been estimated at 100,000 square kilometers (four times the size of the State of Israel).^[1]"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews_Indigenous_to_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa

 

The $300bn claim is a from a footnoted 2007 article in the Jerusalem Post. It cannot be accessed by me, but maybe by a Port subscriber if any of you subscribe. The link does say that the figures are in 2007 Dollars.

 

The group which created the link is a Zionist lobby group. Among their political activities:

"JIMENA played a key role in the unanimous passage of House Resolution 185 by the U.S. Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, February 27, 2008.[4][6] This resolution urges the President to ensure that when refugees from the Middle East are discussed in international forums, any reference to Palestinian refugees be matched by a similarly explicit reference to Jewish and other refugee populations.[7]"

[Morch]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

In the 1930s the Palestinians were disarmed by the British, while a British army officer and Christian Zionist named Orde Wingate trained Jewish commandos including Moshe Dayan into a precursor of the IDF. The program to expel the Palestinians was well-organized, and the British just wanted out in 1947. As I said before, they needed to be protected by Egypt and Jordan so a separate state was not feasible at the time.

 

As to whether the two-state solution is reborn, it depends on the Israeli ground assault and the world's perception of it.

You are getting carried away with nonsense and inaccurate historical detail.

 

The Arabs were not 'disarmed' on whim, there's some context there that you managed to avoid, naturally. That would be the so-called Arab Revolt. Wingate was as outlier, his support for the Jews generally frowned upon by fellow officers, and was eventually moved to a different position. He did great in Burma, as I recall. Painting the British Mandate as sympathetic to the Jews is misleading. The Brits played which ever side suited them, and personal preferences of higher ups were part of it as well.

 

Regardless, this would still make my point - choices, choices. It was an Arab choice to stage a futile revolt, it was an Arab choice not to form bonds that would help them in the long run. Had the Arabs chosen a path toward military and political organization, or a more unified national sense, they would have stood a better chance.

 

You simply make excuses for Palestinian bad leadership, policy and decision making.

 

And no, once again - the two state solution took a hit with the Hamas attack. If you feel that views on Israeli views on the two-state solution will remain the same after that, you live in la la land. Think USA post 9/11.

[placnx]

45 minutes ago, Morch said:

You are getting carried away with nonsense and inaccurate historical detail.

 

The Arabs were not 'disarmed' on whim, there's some context there that you managed to avoid, naturally. That would be the so-called Arab Revolt. Wingate was as outlier, his support for the Jews generally frowned upon by fellow officers, and was eventually moved to a different position. He did great in Burma, as I recall. Painting the British Mandate as sympathetic to the Jews is misleading. The Brits played which ever side suited them, and personal preferences of higher ups were part of it as well.

 

Regardless, this would still make my point - choices, choices. It was an Arab choice to stage a futile revolt, it was an Arab choice not to form bonds that would help them in the long run. Had the Arabs chosen a path toward military and political organization, or a more unified national sense, they would have stood a better chance.

 

You simply make excuses for Palestinian bad leadership, policy and decision making.

 

And no, once again - the two state solution took a hit with the Hamas attack. If you feel that views on Israeli views on the two-state solution will remain the same after Rethat, you live in la la land. Think USA post 9/11.

No, the Arab Revolt was against the Ottoman Empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Revolt The hope was to establish an Arab state "from Aleppo to Aden" in Yemen.

 

You mean this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936–1939_Arab_revolt_in_Palestine This was in opposition to Jewish immigration that had grown under the British mandate from 57,000 to 320,000 in 1935.

 

Regarding Wingate, here's an article about him from Times of Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/75-years-after-his-death-why-orde-wingate-remains-a-hero-in-israel/

 

The Arab Revolt was resistance against occupation. The link about Wingate contains the section "Palestine and the Special Night Squads" which mentions the horrible abuses, but the following link contains more detail: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Night_Squads

 

Without studying history, it's difficult to understand why Palestinians speak with such hysteria when interviewed by BBC, etc.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

No, the Arab Revolt was against the Ottoman Empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Revolt The hope was to establish an Arab state "from Aleppo to Aden" in Yemen.

 

You mean this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936–1939_Arab_revolt_in_Palestine This was in opposition to Jewish immigration that had grown under the British mandate from 57,000 to 320,000 in 1935.

 

Regarding Wingate, here's an article about him from Times of Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/75-years-after-his-death-why-orde-wingate-remains-a-hero-in-israel/

 

The Arab Revolt was resistance against occupation. The link about Wingate contains the section "Palestine and the Special Night Squads" which mentions the horrible abuses, but the following link contains more detail: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Night_Squads

 

Without studying history, it's difficult to understand why Palestinians speak with such hysteria when interviewed by BBC, etc.

 

"No"? Nitpicking becomes you. You know very well what I meant.

Your links do not really counter the essence of my post.

 

 

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

5 hours ago, placnx said:

No, the Arab Revolt was against the Ottoman Empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Revolt The hope was to establish an Arab state "from Aleppo to Aden" in Yemen.

 

You mean this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936–1939_Arab_revolt_in_Palestine This was in opposition to Jewish immigration that had grown under the British mandate from 57,000 to 320,000 in 1935.

 

Regarding Wingate, here's an article about him from Times of Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/75-years-after-his-death-why-orde-wingate-remains-a-hero-in-israel/

 

The Arab Revolt was resistance against occupation. The link about Wingate contains the section "Palestine and the Special Night Squads" which mentions the horrible abuses, but the following link contains more detail: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Night_Squads

 

Without studying history, it's difficult to understand why Palestinians speak with such hysteria when interviewed by BBC, etc.

 

"No"? Nitpicking becomes you. You know very well what I meant.

Your links do not really counter the essence of my post.

The point of evoking the principal Arab Revolt against the Ottomans was that there were serious political aspirations of Arab nationalism, which you may know were thwarted by the British et al in betrayal of promises made in return for their service against the Ottomans.

 

Not nitpicking, but replying to one of your arguments - that people were politically indifferent, so no need for a state of their own. Palestinians were not indifferent then and are not now.

 

Also the Wiki on the 1936-39 Arab Revolt in Palestine shows that the Palestinians attempted to resist Jewish colonisation, but were unable to sustain their struggle in the face of brutal suppression by Wingate's forces in particular.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, placnx said:

In 1967, again Palestinians were forced to flee to Jordan and cannot return to the West Bank.

Which is why the Egyptian president has opted to not let Gazans flee to the Sinai. He said in his speech that if he did, the resistance would move to the Sinai and israel would then be attacking Egypt.

He has a valid point, unfortunately.

He also said that israel could resettle non Hamas Gazans in the israeli Negev desert, but IMO that will never happen as israel wants Palestinians gone, not relocated but still in israel.

 

Apparently there are about 3 million Palestinians in Jordan, so israel may find itself fighting on yet another front, as they are plenty riled about Gaza, just as in Algeria, India, Iraq, Indonesia etc.

 

Seems to me that israelis may find themselves at risk in many parts of the world now. They may solve the "Gaza" problem, but have a much larger problem worldwide.

Muslims are everywhere, and are not ignoring it.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, placnx said:

The point of evoking the principal Arab Revolt against the Ottomans was that there were serious political aspirations of Arab nationalism, which you may know were thwarted by the British et al in betrayal of promises made in return for their service against the Ottomans.

 

Not nitpicking, but replying to one of your arguments - that people were politically indifferent, so no need for a state of their own. Palestinians were not indifferent then and are not now.

 

Also the Wiki on the 1936-39 Arab Revolt in Palestine shows that the Palestinians attempted to resist Jewish colonisation, but were unable to sustain their struggle in the face of brutal suppression by Wingate's forces in particular.

Many blame America for the current debacle, but IMO it was created by the British, with their support of the zionists. Had the British not run away in the face of zionist terrorism and abandoned the Palestinians the story may have been very different. For starters I understand the British were supportive of TransJordan.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan–United_Kingdom_relations

During the Arab–Israeli War of 1948, Britain secretly favored a total Jordanian invasion of West Bank hoping to wipe out the possible creation of a Palestinian state led by Amin al-Husseini. The invasion was a success which and secured British influence within Transjordan.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, Morch said:

The fact remains that Palestinians did not feel the need to have their own state. There was no struggle or real effort to get there. Then we have loads of posts on these 'discussions' alleging Palestinians as motivated for this since 1947 or even prior.

That's your opinion and not supported by history. They certainly did want a state of their own.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan–United_Kingdom_relations

During the Arab–Israeli War of 1948, Britain secretly favored a total Jordanian invasion of West Bank hoping to wipe out the possible creation of a Palestinian state led by Amin al-Husseini. The invasion was a success which and secured British influence within Transjordan.

[Jingthing]

30 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Many blame America for the current debacle, but IMO it was created by the British, with their support of the zionists. Had the British not run away in the face of zionist terrorism and abandoned the Palestinians the story may have been very different. For starters I understand the British were supportive of TransJordan.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan–United_Kingdom_relations

During the Arab–Israeli War of 1948, Britain secretly favored a total Jordanian invasion of West Bank hoping to wipe out the possible creation of a Palestinian state led by Amin al-Husseini. The invasion was a success which and secured British influence within Transjordan.

I noticed that you don't capitalize Israel or Zionist but that you do capitalize Palestinian. Can you explain your disrespect for the world's one Jewish state (when there are so many Islamic ones) and the world's only liberation / political movement of self determination for the Jewish people? Do you not recognize Israel's right to exist? I've already gleaned that you're no fan of Israel defending itself from terrorists.

[thaibeachlovers]

Certain posters should understand that I have put them on ignore, not necessarily because of this topic, and do not see their posts, so they should not expect a response if they quote me.