One step from recession: UK economy shrinks in third quarter

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Revised figures show that the British economy performed worse in the last six months than previously expected.

Revised data shows that the British economy shrank 0.1% on quarter in the three months to September 2023, following stagnation in the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics. 

Previously it was estimated that British GDP plateaued following minor growth in the second quarter. 

https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/12/22/one-step-from-recession-uk-economy-shrinks-in-third-quarter

[WhatMeWorry]

England's economy is doing much better than socialist Germany. England also is no longer under the totalitarian, globalist control of the elite in Brussels.

[Furioso]

Breaks it

[georgegeorgia]

What's the unemployment rate like in the UK?

And mortgage rates?

 

 

[Nick Carter icp]

8 minutes ago, georgegeorgia said:

What's the unemployment rate like in the UK?

And mortgage rates?

 

 

 

Info here 

 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+unemployment+rate&oq=uk+unemplyment&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgBEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg5MgkIARAAGA0YgAQyCAgCEAAYDRgeMggIAxAAGA0YHjIICAQQABgNGB4yCAgFEAAYDRgeMggIBhAAGA0YHjIICAcQABgNGB4yCAgIEAAYDRgeMggICRAAGA0YHtIBCTg2MDVqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-rates-23-12-23/

 

 

 

[soi3eddie]

50 minutes ago, georgegeorgia said:

What's the unemployment rate like in the UK?

And mortgage rates?

 

Getting an answer to this is difficult. How is unemployment counted? Simply those claiming unemployment welfare benefits? That won't show the true number as there is massive "underemployment". One crazy situation is people working limited hours so that they can claim welfare. They are in work (albeit only half time) but still receive welfare and housing payments but counted as employed and not unemployed and paying no income taxes either. One thing often heard is; "I can't work longer as I'll lose my benefits". There are also many younger people neither employed or unemployed, simply living at home with family (Not in Employement, Education or Training and sometimes referred to as NEETS). At the same time the government come out with figures saying that there have never been higher numbers in employment in the UK. Well yes, that is likely correct as immigration has swelled the population in recent years. Though, in work benefits, are handed out liberally to young families earning at the lower end of the scale. It's a sad situation for the UK economy and often desperate times for those in these situations.

From Euro news:

Economic inactivity -- those who are unemployed and not seeking work -- went up by 0.1% to 21.1% as of the end of July.12 Sept 2023

 

Mortgage rates are now down to 4% at the lowest end for those with large downpayments. Typically 5% plus is the norm and these are usually 2, 3 or 5 year deals that would revert to variable rate (or Adjustable Rate Mortgages - ARMs) and then borrowers must either re-finance or pay the higher rate. One problem in the UK at present is that many homeowners are coming to the end of short term fixed rates at less than 2% only to have to refinance at 5% or more. That's if they still qualify. This is causing large amounts of disposable income to dissapear from the economy at the same time as other bills, such as energy and insurance, have risen dramatically. Many parts of "main street" in UK towns are decimated with boarded up shops and closed businesses.

 

[HauptmannUK]

Along with my sister I own a used car dealership and Service/MoT workshop. It was founded by my grandfather in 1921. Although I spend half my time in Thailand I still keep an active interest in the business.

The used car market is always a barometer of the economy and its clear that the UK economy has been struggling for a while, but in the last few months things have taken a turn for the worse. Used car trade prices have been dropping hard for the past three months. We generally have 40 cars in stock, priced between £5k-35k.  Anything over £15k is now very hard work indeed and the value of large SUVs is dropping like falling masonry.  Small/cheap cars is really the only active part of the market and demand for sub-4k cars has rocketed.  I think interest rate increases are now feeding through to middle class families and the disposable income is just not there any more.

An additional factor is that we are still bedevilled by parts supply issues. Whether its still from Covid or from Brexit, I don't know, but we've had many repairs held up for weeks due to non-availability of parts.  Few months ago we just couldn't get clutches and the factors we use only ever seem to have half of what we order.  Its not looking good.

[BritManToo]

48 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

Many parts of "main street" in UK towns are decimated with boarded up shops and closed businesses.

More to do with greedy councils business rates plus online stores than any problems with the economy IMHO.

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3 hours ago, WhatMeWorry said:

England's economy is doing much better than socialist Germany. England also is no longer under the totalitarian, globalist control of the elite in Brussels.

Really? Not sure why you singled out England. Don't Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland Count for anything? Does the UK have as high a GDP per capita as does Germany? I couldn't find any current stats for England. I'm sure you wouldn't make such a claim without supporting evidence. Please share it with us.

As for the UK vs. Germany, you've got to be kidding. Right now, Germany is undergoing a bit a decline because many of its export markets are economically weak. It's still got a lot stronger an economy than the UK. If Germany really was socialist, that would be a great piece of evidence in support of socialism.

And it's clear when someone starts spouting words such as totalitarian and globalist re the EU, they're just demonstrating the validity of Pavlov's law.

[youreavinalaff]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

More to do with greedy councils business rates plus online stores than any problems with the economy IMHO.

In my hone town, most empty shops are now being offered as business rate free. They remain empty.

 

With the amount of Amazon,DPD and UPS vans around, plus the plethora of delivery drivers you see in unmarked vehicles delivering for Evri and Flex, I believe it is mostly online shopping that is killing the high street.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

In my hone town, most empty shops are now being offered as business rate free. They remain empty.

 

With the amount of Amazon,DPD and UPS vans around, plus the plethora of delivery drivers you see in unmarked vehicles delivering for Evri and Flex, I believe it is mostly online shopping that is killing the high street.

 

 

I guess with the UK being a lot smaller geographically than the US and a lot more densely populated, Amazon would be even more competitive there. 

[youreavinalaff]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I guess with the UK being a lot smaller geographically than the US and a lot more densely populated, Amazon would be even more competitive there. 

TEMU seems to be doing well too. I know a couple of Evri drivers. They say their deliveries are often 50% from Temu

[TroubleandGrumpy]

The biggest drains on economic productivity are becomming far too large and unaffordable. Those two main draws are social welfare and public servants.  Basically they are all the people that got paid during Covid, when many of the productive members of society lost their jobs/business. There are too many unproductive people in UK and most other western countries, and they are growing in numbers every year.  The fact is that many illegals also go to those countries, not for the opportunity to work, but for the social welfare benefits they can get. But the bigger problem is all the people who believe that the Govt owes them a living. As USSR and all the other failed Socialist countries find out - it does not work in the end. 

[youreavinalaff]

18 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

The biggest drains on economic productivity are becomming far too large and unaffordable. Those two main draws are social welfare and public servants.  Basically they are all the people that got paid during Covid, when many of the productive members of society lost their jobs/business. There are too many unproductive people in UK and most other western countries, and they are growing in numbers every year.  The fact is that many illegals also go to those countries, not for the opportunity to work, but for the social welfare benefits they can get. But the bigger problem is all the people who believe that the Govt owes them a living. As USSR and all the other failed Socialist countries find out - it does not work in the end. 

Illegals don't get benefits 

[lungbing]

So  illegals pay for their hotels and food do they?

[youreavinalaff]

17 minutes ago, lungbing said:

So  illegals pay for their hotels and food do they?

You seem to be confusing illegal immigrants and asylum seekers and even then they are not on benefits.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

The biggest drains on economic productivity are becomming far too large and unaffordable. Those two main draws are social welfare and public servants.  Basically they are all the people that got paid during Covid, when many of the productive members of society lost their jobs/business. There are too many unproductive people in UK and most other western countries, and they are growing in numbers every year.  The fact is that many illegals also go to those countries, not for the opportunity to work, but for the social welfare benefits they can get. But the bigger problem is all the people who believe that the Govt owes them a living. As USSR and all the other failed Socialist countries find out - it does not work in the end. 

Thank you for the global generalizations. Always so useful and enlightening especially when unbacked by evidence. But since this thread is about the UK let's take a look at a couple of graphs. The first one shows the rise in social spending from 2000.  The second one shows the rise in GDP from 2000. The third one shows the rise in the median age of people in the UK from 2000. And the fourth the rise in population from.

So while social expenditures has increased by about 57% since 2020, GDP has increased by about 42%. What's more the median age in the UK has increased by almost 3 years. So more expenditure on care of the elderly is required. In addition the population of the UK has risen by  about 14%

In short, it looks like the rise in social spending is more or less balanced by these other 3 trends.

 

Public sector expenditure on social protection in the United Kingdom from 1999/00 to 2022/23

https://www.statista.com/statistics/298481/social-protection-spending-uk/

 

Gross domestic product of the United Kingdom from 1948 to 2022

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/

.

 

Median age of the population of the United Kingdom from 2001 to 2021

 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281288/median-age-of-the-population-of-the-uk/#:~:text=In 2021%2C the median age,median age remained at 40.

 

Population of Great Britain from 1971 to 2021

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1390180/great-britain-population/

 

[stratocaster]

I saw your first graph on Sky news. Interestingly they superimposed the 2012/13 forecast which should have seen a rise from 315.6 to 346.5 in 22/23.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

16 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

Illegals don't get benefits 

You serious?? Mate - under the UN Human Rights Convention all signatories must provide 'aid and assistance' to all 'refugees' (illegals) claiming to be refugees - while their claims (and years of appeals) are undertaken.  Once approved or allowed, they have a short waiting period (each country different) before they qualify for social welfare benefits. Very few get rejected and deported  - many 'rejected' ones just disappear.  It is an 'industry' mate - some say it is an invasion.  

[PJ71]

They should just Nuke the UK ( little India ).

[youreavinalaff]

5 hours ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

You serious?? Mate - under the UN Human Rights Convention all signatories must provide 'aid and assistance' to all 'refugees' (illegals) claiming to be refugees - while their claims (and years of appeals) are undertaken.  Once approved or allowed, they have a short waiting period (each country different) before they qualify for social welfare benefits. Very few get rejected and deported  - many 'rejected' ones just disappear.  It is an 'industry' mate - some say it is an invasion.  

You are mixing it up. You clearly don't know the difference between " illegals", "refugees" and " asylum seekers".

[TroubleandGrumpy]

18 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

You are mixing it up. You clearly don't know the difference between " illegals", "refugees" and " asylum seekers".

90% of 'refugees' and 'asylum seekers' are illegals claiming to be refugees or asylum seekers.

 

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18 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

90% of 'refugees' and 'asylum seekers' are illegals claiming to be refugees or asylum seekers.

 

Got some evidence to share with the rest of us that this is the case in the UK?