Israel is at War - General discussion (pt3)

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

He was not negotiating for peace. He was representing Hamas. There was no intent from Hamas to negotiate peace. Multiple ceasefire/truce agreements had been presented and agreed upon in principle, but then always refused by Hamas. As an integral party to the attack of October 7 and the  breaking of the truce that had in place, he had no credibility.  He was a dead man walking.

Previously he agreed to a release of hostages. Now that he's been assassinated how much chance do you give the remaining ones of being released alive?

[Yellowtail]

15 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Spare a kind thought for the Iranians who most likely assisted the Israeli agents. A large number of Iranians are not supporters of the religious regime. As we can see from the Iranians who have fled Iran for the west, they are often educated and secular, and  have no use for Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical groups. I anticipate that the Iranians will be  torturing and killing many Iranian dissidents in the weeks to come.

At one time yes, but not the ones "fleeing" to the west in the last 30-40 years. 

[rabas]

Iran issued as NOTAM restricting air traffic over Ismail Haniyeh's funeral in Tehran, which did little to comfort Ali Khamenei who kept nervously looking skyward during his eulogy. 

Edited August 1 by rabas

[Patong2021]

12 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Previously he agreed to a release of hostages. Now that he's been assassinated how much chance do you give the remaining ones of being released alive?

 

 Please provide context. When did he last agree to a release of hostages because as of 24 July 2024, 115 hostages remained in captivity in the Gaza Strip, 111 of whom had been abducted on 7 October 2023; the other four hostages having been captured earlier. All decisions on the hostages are made by Sinwar and others who are safe in Qatar. Perhaps you are unaware, but the hostages are not all held by Hamas. Multiple  groups hold the hostages.   The likelihood of  these groups releasing the hostages has always been remote. The sad reality is that the hostages were lost once several weeks passed. They are only held now for the pleasure of their captors.  

[placeholder]

20 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   If he tried a bit harder for a negotiate settlement ,  then maybe he wouldn't have been killed ?

   Haniyeh was part of a murderous war criminal gang and Israel wanted him dead , rather than talk to him 

What a brilliant negotiating tactic! If we judge that you're not trying hard enough, we'll kill you. It is to laugh.

[Nick Carter icp]

Just now, placeholder said:

What a brilliant negotiating tactic! If we judge that you're not trying hard enough, we'll kill you. It is to laugh.

 

  As a Hamas leader , he was told that he would be killed . 

He would be killed for his part in organising Oct 7 th .

He could have negotiated himself not being killed by making concessions and say , releasing the hostages and him not being killed.

  He had a death sentence anyway ,  negotiations could have lifted that death sentence 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What a brilliant negotiating tactic! If we judge that you're not trying hard enough, we'll kill you. It is to laugh.

Well, if the negotiator before me was killed for refusing to negotiate, I would be a lot more accommodating.  

[Bkk Brian]

The house of cards.....

 

https://x.com/Ostrov_A/status/1818618596538323405

 

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

  As a Hamas leader , he was told that he would be killed . 

He would be killed for his part in organising Oct 7 th .

He could have negotiated himself not being killed by making concessions and say , releasing the hostages and him not being killed.

  He had a death sentence anyway ,  negotiations could have lifted that death sentence 

Great idea. A negotiator prioritized himself over  the interests of the group he represents. This is comedy gold.

[rabas]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

What a brilliant negotiating tactic! If we judge that you're not trying hard enough, we'll kill you. It is to laugh.

 

Perhaps your confusion lies in assuming any semblance of negotiating normalcy with the top man who oversaw/ordered the most heinous, inhuman terrorist attack the world has seen in modern times, who then publicly celebrated and praised the massacre. [WATCH]. Of course he had a target on his back.

 

Do you really think anyone can hold honorable negotiations with such an animal? Why would you even appear to support him?  

 

I do wonder what will happen now with the billions he stole from his own people.  [REF]

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Perhaps your confusion lies in assuming any semblance of negotiating normalcy with the top man who oversaw/ordered the most heinous, inhuman terrorist attack the world has seen in modern times, who then publicly celebrated and praised the massacre. [WATCH]. Of course he had a target on his back.

 

Do you really think anyone can hold honorable negotiations with such an animal? Why would you even appear to support him?  

 

I do wonder what will happen now with the billions he stole from his own people.  [REF]

First off, it's not even clear if Hamas in Qatar knew about the attack before hand, much less called the shots. And as for the negotiating...

 

Hamas’s Political Leaders Aren’t in Charge
The group’s leadership in exile has taken a back seat to its officials in Gaza.

https://archive.ph/OeBjs

That honor, such as it it, belongs to Yahya Sinwar, who runs things in Gaza and his defunct military chief , Muhammed Deif

 

As for Haniyeh being such an animal, which members of Hamas would you recommend for Israel to negotiate with who aren't animals? And if there aren't any such characters, why negotiate with them at all? You seem to have forgotten why Israel is negotiating with these "animals".

 

Families of Israeli hostages fearful for Gaza ceasefire deal after Hamas leader killing

Family members of Israeli hostages held in Gaza have renewed their demands for a ceasefire deal, fearing that any hope for a hostage agreement may be lost amid escalating regional tensions following the Israeli assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander.

Families blocked main roads in Tel Aviv on Thursday morning, launching nationwide rallies as the war entered its 300th day and any hope for a ceasefire in Gaza felt more distant than ever.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/08/01/families-of-israeli-hostages-fearful-for-gaza-ceasefire-deal-after-hamas-leader-killing/

 

[Bkk Brian]

On 7/31/2024 at 11:13 PM, coolcarer said:

As Blinken said. Sinwar is the one who calls the shots, not the leaders in Qatar who are doing his bidding.

Exactly, the assassination of Haniyeh was on the cards from day one as it is for all Hamas leaders. The poster your responding to is unable to make a comment unless its a criticism of Israel even when this was exactly what's needed, targeted strikes that take out the leaders and minimal civilian casualties. 

 

Indeed, Sinwar calls the shots and any ceasefire deals are done with his permission only and we know he has been holding out for months, there was no indication he was going to change his mind this time. "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the fate of the ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip is “down to one person”.

 

Sinwar, identified as the key orchestrator of the October 7 massacre in Israel, is reportedly unconcerned with his own mortality but faces increasing scrutiny over the significant suffering in Gaza. According to Burns, US intelligence believes Sinwar is hiding in the tunnels beneath Khan Younis, his birthplace in Gaza, and is the pivotal figure in deciding whether Hamas will accept a ceasefire deal.

 

Hamas has been left in "a state of shock" and there is already talk of his replacement. Difficult times still ahead.

 

"the looming succession process could be lengthy and chaotic - defined by rivalries between those keen to reach a negotiated settlement to the war and extremist elements more closely allied with Iran."

 

The current state of Hamas:

Hamas leader & deputy are dead

Most terror chiefs in Gaza were killed

Almost no ability or desire to fire rockets 

Terror tunnels turned into death traps

Daily death toll keeps rising Gaza terror base ruined

 

Some more details on his death. Quite an operation, there was no airstrike, it was a bomb planted in his room.

 

More details of how the Mossad assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh via @BarakRavid

➡️ Israeli intelligence learned which facility — and which exact room — Haniyeh stayed in during his visits to Tehran.
➡️ The bomb was planted in his room in advance.
➡️ The bomb was a high-tech device that used artificial intelligence. 
➡️ It was detonated remotely by Mossad operatives who were on Iranian soil after receiving intelligence that Haniyeh was indeed in the room.

 

Planted bomb, remote control and AI: How the Mossad killed Hamas' leader in Iran

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Exactly, the assassination of Haniyeh was on the cards from day one as it is for all Hamas leaders. The poster your responding to is unable to make a comment unless its a criticism of Israel even when this was exactly what's needed, targeted strikes that take out the leaders and minimal civilian casualties. 

 

Indeed, Sinwar calls the shots and any ceasefire deals are done with his permission only and we know he has been holding out for months, there was no indication he was going to change his mind this time. "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the fate of the ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip is “down to one person”.

 

Sinwar, identified as the key orchestrator of the October 7 massacre in Israel, is reportedly unconcerned with his own mortality but faces increasing scrutiny over the significant suffering in Gaza. According to Burns, US intelligence believes Sinwar is hiding in the tunnels beneath Khan Younis, his birthplace in Gaza, and is the pivotal figure in deciding whether Hamas will accept a ceasefire deal.

 

Hamas has been left in "a state of shock" and there is already talk of his replacement. Difficult times still ahead.

 

"the looming succession process could be lengthy and chaotic - defined by rivalries between those keen to reach a negotiated settlement to the war and extremist elements more closely allied with Iran."

 

The current state of Hamas:

Hamas leader & deputy are dead

Most terror chiefs in Gaza were killed

Almost no ability or desire to fire rockets 

Terror tunnels turned into death traps

Daily death toll keeps rising Gaza terror base ruined

 

Some more details on his death. Quite an operation, there was no airstrike, it was a bomb planted in his room.

 

More details of how the Mossad assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh via @BarakRavid

➡️ Israeli intelligence learned which facility — and which exact room — Haniyeh stayed in during his visits to Tehran.
➡️ The bomb was planted in his room in advance.
➡️ The bomb was a high-tech device that used artificial intelligence. 
➡️ It was detonated remotely by Mossad operatives who were on Iranian soil after receiving intelligence that Haniyeh was indeed in the room.

 

Planted bomb, remote control and AI: How the Mossad killed Hamas' leader in Iran

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad

 

Even if it was in the cards for all Hamas leaders, why assassinate a member of the negotiating team now? Ya think that's going to help get the hostages back? 

"The tough question facing mediators and observers: How can talks continue if one side kills the main negotiator for the other side?"

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2024/0801/hamas-assassination-gaza-cease-fire-negotiations

[Bkk Brian]

Israel Has Nearly Wiped Out Hamas' Military Leadership

Estimates pulled from sources from the Israeli military suggest up to 80 percent of the senior leadership of Hamas' armed faction have been taken out, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.

Israel has taken out up to four of every five senior Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades commanders, Ozcelik said, plus an estimated 15,000-20,000 trained Hamas fighters.

The Israeli military says it is committed to tearing apart Hamas' chain of command, destroying its infrastructure—such as the miles of underground tunnels snaking under Gazan cities—and killing Hamas operatives.

Experts say taking out the group's leadership is a tactic designed to grind down Hamas until the organization is unable to function effectively, ultimately forcing it to agree to unfavorable ceasefire terms and return the remaining hostages.

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-hamas-commanders-killed-gaza-strip-1933104

[Bkk Brian]

Two names as cropping up as likely replacements.

 

Khaled Mashaal, a senior Hamas political leader in exile, is expected to be chosen as the terror group’s leader to replace Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Iran early this morning, Hamas sources tell the Reuters news agency, echoing reports and estimations cited by Hebrew media.

Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya, who is based in Qatar and has headed Hamas negotiators in indirect Gaza truce talks with Israel, has also been a possibility for the leadership as he is a favorite of Iran and its allies in the region, the report says.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/who-will-replace-haniyeh-as-hamas-chief-reports-name-khaled-mashaal-as-frontrunner/

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

When did he last agree to a release of hostages because as of 24 July 2024,

The last time some were released, obviously.

 

IMO the rest will not survive.

[placeholder]

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

Hamas has been left in "a state of shock" and there is already talk of his replacement. Difficult times still ahead.

 

Link to a great article You must have missed this part:

 

"CIA Director Bill Burns said recently that tensions have emerged among some senior Hamas commanders who have been urging the group's leadership to show more flexibility in negotiations and to accept a hostage-ceasefire deal.
However, anger over the death of Haniyeh - and the January assassination of his deputy Saleh al-Arouri - likely puts the hardliners in pole position."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce98regp6y1o

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Israel Has Nearly Wiped Out Hamas' Military Leadership

Estimates pulled from sources from the Israeli military suggest up to 80 percent of the senior leadership of Hamas' armed faction have been taken out, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.

Israel has taken out up to four of every five senior Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades commanders, Ozcelik said, plus an estimated 15,000-20,000 trained Hamas fighters.

The Israeli military says it is committed to tearing apart Hamas' chain of command, destroying its infrastructure—such as the miles of underground tunnels snaking under Gazan cities—and killing Hamas operatives.

Experts say taking out the group's leadership is a tactic designed to grind down Hamas until the organization is unable to function effectively, ultimately forcing it to agree to unfavorable ceasefire terms and return the remaining hostages.

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-hamas-commanders-killed-gaza-strip-1933104

Israel has been making all kinds of claims about the success of its war against Hamas. It's 9 months of fighting now and still no end in sight. And that end looks more remote than ever:

Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza
Israel’s military leadership wants a cease-fire with Hamas in case a bigger war breaks out in Lebanon, security officials say. It has also concluded that a truce would be the swiftest way to free hostages.

https://archive.ph/Xt8k0

[Bkk Brian]

Great article from a US general who visited Gaza. "one thing is certain—the IDF’s motivation, professionalism and commitment to upholding the laws of armed conflict while mitigating the loss of life to civilians."

 

On The Ground In Gaza: The Reality Of Israel’s Military Operations

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2024/07/31/on-the-ground-in-gaza-the-reality-of-israels-military-operations/

 

[Yellowtail]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Even if it was in the cards for all Hamas leaders, why assassinate a member of the negotiating team now? Ya think that's going to help get the hostages back? 

 

Because anyone paying attention know that Hamas only understands overwhelming force. Hamas knows that the left/press carrying their water has always worked in the past to get Israel to surrender, but I think with the assassination, there are less hopeful of that happening this time. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Link to a great article You must have missed this part:

 

"CIA Director Bill Burns said recently that tensions have emerged among some senior Hamas commanders who have been urging the group's leadership to show more flexibility in negotiations and to accept a hostage-ceasefire deal.
However, anger over the death of Haniyeh - and the January assassination of his deputy Saleh al-Arouri - likely puts the hardliners in pole position."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce98regp6y1o

That's a hoot

[coolcarer]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Israel has been making all kinds of claims about the success of its war against Hamas. It's 9 months of fighting now and still no end in sight. And that end looks more remote than ever:

Israeli Generals, Low on Munitions, Want a Truce in Gaza
Israel’s military leadership wants a cease-fire with Hamas in case a bigger war breaks out in Lebanon, security officials say. It has also concluded that a truce would be the swiftest way to free hostages.

https://archive.ph/Xt8k0

You are funny. They must keep finding more ammo daily....lol. Just struke the terrorists in one of their favourite hideouts again.

 

IDF: Fighter jets strike group of Hamas operatives hiding in Gaza City school

A group of Hamas operatives gathered at a school in Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighborhood were struck by a fighter jet a short while ago, the military says.
According to the IDF, Hamas was using the Dalal School as a hideout for operatives and commanders, and it had planned attacks against Israel from the site.
The IDF says it carried out “many steps” to mitigate harm to civilians, including using aerial surveillance and precision munitions.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-fighter-jets-strike-group-of-hamas-operatives-hiding-in-gaza-city-school/

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Great article from a US general who visited Gaza. "one thing is certain—the IDF’s motivation, professionalism and commitment to upholding the laws of armed conflict while mitigating the loss of life to civilians."

 

On The Ground In Gaza: The Reality Of Israel’s Military Operations

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2024/07/31/on-the-ground-in-gaza-the-reality-of-israels-military-operations/

 

His characterization of the IDF's record on enforcement of justice shows where he's coming from:

 

"In those cases where there are questions of misconduct or errors in the application of military force, these issues are investigated by a judicial arm of the IDF. In fact, such investigations are currently underway in Israel by a judicial arm that is separate from the military chain of command, causing widespread debates across the Jewish nation. Legal action is imminent."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2024/07/31/on-the-ground-in-gaza-what-i-saw-of-israels-military-operations/

The IDF's record in investigating soldiers accused of crimes is notoriously bad.

 

How Israel's military investigates itself in cases of possible wrongdoing

After years of collecting evidence to assist the IDF in its investigations, though, Michaeli says B'Tselem rarely saw any of its cases move past the initial investigative stage. "We did that for many years and ultimately reached the conclusion that it was pointless," says Michaeli, "that regardless of what we did, there was always the same result: no accountability."...

"We reached the conclusion that continuing to refer cases to the Israeli investigative bodies is not only counterproductive because it does not obtain any real accountability, but it also gives the veneer of a functioning system," she says.

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/15/1250417719/israel-military-idf-investigations-icc

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

You are funny. They must keep finding more ammo daily....lol. Just struke the terrorists in one of their favourite hideouts again.

 

IDF: Fighter jets strike group of Hamas operatives hiding in Gaza City school

A group of Hamas operatives gathered at a school in Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighborhood were struck by a fighter jet a short while ago, the military says.
According to the IDF, Hamas was using the Dalal School as a hideout for operatives and commanders, and it had planned attacks against Israel from the site.
The IDF says it carried out “many steps” to mitigate harm to civilians, including using aerial surveillance and precision munitions.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-fighter-jets-strike-group-of-hamas-operatives-hiding-in-gaza-city-school/

They've also sharply curtailed their military operations.

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Great article from a US general who visited Gaza. "one thing is certain—the IDF’s motivation, professionalism and commitment to upholding the laws of armed conflict while mitigating the loss of life to civilians."

 

On The Ground In Gaza: The Reality Of Israel’s Military Operations

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2024/07/31/on-the-ground-in-gaza-the-reality-of-israels-military-operations/

 

Also recommended by John Spencer

 

Israel has not created a gold standard in civilian harm mitigation in war. That implies there is a standard in civilian casualties in war that is acceptable or not acceptable; that zero civilian deaths in war is remotely possible and should be the goal; that there is a set civilian-to-combatant ratio in war no matter the context or tactics of the enemy. But all available evidence shows that Israel has followed the laws of war, legal obligations, best practices in civilian harm mitigation and still found a way to reduce civilian casualties to historically low levels.

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-has-created-new-standard-urban-warfare-why-will-no-one-admit-it-opinion-1883286

[coolcarer]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

They've also sharply curtailed their military operations.

The US only held back 2000 pound bombs and have resumed all other military supplies.  You got a link that supplies are still low? That article of yours is a month old.

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

The house of cards.....

 

https://x.com/Ostrov_A/status/1818618596538323405

 

Those decks of cards were made famous during the 2nd Iraq War. I can't believe that you would actually offer that as some kind of evidence of real progress.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Those decks of cards were made famous during the 2nd Iraq War. I can't believe that you would actually offer that as some kind of evidence of real progress.

You're right, the left flushed Iraq, Viet Nam and most recently Afghanistan down the toilet. Now they're working on Israel. 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Those decks of cards were made famous during the 2nd Iraq War. I can't believe that you would actually offer that as some kind of evidence of real progress.

This is not the Iraq war though. That house of cards reflects facts of who has been killed. 

 

58 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Israel Has Nearly Wiped Out Hamas' Military Leadership

Estimates pulled from sources from the Israeli military suggest up to 80 percent of the senior leadership of Hamas' armed faction have been taken out, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.

Israel has taken out up to four of every five senior Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades commanders, Ozcelik said, plus an estimated 15,000-20,000 trained Hamas fighters.

The Israeli military says it is committed to tearing apart Hamas' chain of command, destroying its infrastructure—such as the miles of underground tunnels snaking under Gazan cities—and killing Hamas operatives.

Experts say taking out the group's leadership is a tactic designed to grind down Hamas until the organization is unable to function effectively, ultimately forcing it to agree to unfavorable ceasefire terms and return the remaining hostages.

https://www.newsweek.com/israel-hamas-commanders-killed-gaza-strip-1933104

 

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, coolcarer said:

The US only held back 2000 pound bombs and have resumed all other military supplies.  You got a link that supplies are still low? That article of yours is a month old.

First off, you think that full resupply can happen in a month? 

And there's this:

Israel’s military, worn down by Gaza, looks warily toward war in Lebanon
As Israel trades threats with Hezbollah, there are fears that the military is overstretched and its resources depleted after nine months of war against Hamas.

https://archive.ph/IC5qb#selection-515.0-519.158