Opinion: Russia's Potential For Defeat in War With Ukraine

[Social Media]

 

As Russia celebrated Victory Day on Thursday, commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, the specter of war looms large over its aggression in Ukraine. While domestically, Victory Day evokes nostalgia for past triumphs, abroad, it serves as a tool of intimidation, perpetuating the myth of Russia's invincibility. However, amidst the fervor of military displays and nationalist fervor, a crucial truth remains overlooked: Russia can lose this war.

 

Despite initial assumptions of Ukraine's imminent collapse in the face of Russian aggression, the reality paints a different picture. Over two years into the conflict, Ukraine has not only held its ground but has also demonstrated resilience against formidable odds. Yet, the prevailing belief among Russia's allies and adversaries alike persists: Russia is destined for victory.

 

However, history offers a sobering reminder that Russia's military might is not infallible. Contrary to the myth of the invincible Red Army, Russia has faced defeat in pivotal conflicts throughout its history. From the Polish-Soviet War of 1920 to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, Russia's military prowess has been tested and, at times, faltered.

 

Moreover, the Russia of today is not the Soviet Union of the past. Unlike during World War II, Ukraine now finds itself pitted against Russia, not alongside it. The absence of American economic support, akin to the vital Lend-Lease assistance during WWII, further diminishes Russia's prospects for victory.

 

As negotiations and geopolitical maneuvering unfold, the crux of the matter lies in defining the war's endgame. While Russia seeks a return to the status quo, Ukraine and its allies advocate for a permanent cessation of hostilities. The outcome of this conflict holds profound implications for the global order, with far-reaching consequences extending beyond Eastern Europe.

 

A defeated Russia offers the promise of reform and renewal, akin to historical precedents where defeat paved the way for democratic transition. By relinquishing its imperial ambitions, Russia can embark on a path towards normalcy, characterized by respect for the rule of law and democratic governance.

 

For Ukrainians, victory holds a deeper significance, symbolizing resistance against fascist aggression reminiscent of WWII. Like their European counterparts, Ukrainians commemorate Victory Day on May 8th, underscoring their sacrifices and determination to confront tyranny.

 

Ultimately, the defeat of fascism requires a united front and unwavering commitment to democratic values. Just as the Allied coalition prevailed in WWII, today's international community must stand firm against authoritarian aggression and uphold the principles of freedom and justice.

 

In the face of Russia's belligerence, the choice is clear: defeat offers the promise of a brighter future, not just for Ukraine, but for Russia itself. It is a chance to break free from the shackles of imperialism and embrace a new era of democracy and peace.

 

2024-05-09

 

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[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, Social Media said:

Despite initial assumptions of Ukraine's imminent collapse in the face of Russian aggression, the reality paints a different picture. Over two years into the conflict, Ukraine has not only held its ground but has also demonstrated resilience against formidable odds.

Is this a case of rewriting history? By what measure is Ukraine holding it's ground?

As reported on this very forum, it lost a significant chunk of land not so long ago.

It has had a few minor wins, but nothing that looks like pushing Russia out of the east or Crimea.

 

IMO the only way for Ukraine to "win" is if Gorbachev is resurrected as president, and withdraws.

 

However, as I don't have a working crystal ball, I'll have to admit that by some incredible happening Ukraine could force Russia to withdraw to pre invasion lines, though I have no idea what that happening might be.

[Gweiloman]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

 

As Russia celebrated Victory Day on Thursday, commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, the specter of war looms large over its aggression in Ukraine. While domestically, Victory Day evokes nostalgia for past triumphs, abroad, it serves as a tool of intimidation, perpetuating the myth of Russia's invincibility. However, amidst the fervor of military displays and nationalist fervor, a crucial truth remains overlooked: Russia can lose this war.

 

Despite initial assumptions of Ukraine's imminent collapse in the face of Russian aggression, the reality paints a different picture. Over two years into the conflict, Ukraine has not only held its ground but has also demonstrated resilience against formidable odds. Yet, the prevailing belief among Russia's allies and adversaries alike persists: Russia is destined for victory.

 

However, history offers a sobering reminder that Russia's military might is not infallible. Contrary to the myth of the invincible Red Army, Russia has faced defeat in pivotal conflicts throughout its history. From the Polish-Soviet War of 1920 to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, Russia's military prowess has been tested and, at times, faltered.

 

Moreover, the Russia of today is not the Soviet Union of the past. Unlike during World War II, Ukraine now finds itself pitted against Russia, not alongside it. The absence of American economic support, akin to the vital Lend-Lease assistance during WWII, further diminishes Russia's prospects for victory.

 

As negotiations and geopolitical maneuvering unfold, the crux of the matter lies in defining the war's endgame. While Russia seeks a return to the status quo, Ukraine and its allies advocate for a permanent cessation of hostilities. The outcome of this conflict holds profound implications for the global order, with far-reaching consequences extending beyond Eastern Europe.

 

A defeated Russia offers the promise of reform and renewal, akin to historical precedents where defeat paved the way for democratic transition. By relinquishing its imperial ambitions, Russia can embark on a path towards normalcy, characterized by respect for the rule of law and democratic governance.

 

For Ukrainians, victory holds a deeper significance, symbolizing resistance against fascist aggression reminiscent of WWII. Like their European counterparts, Ukrainians commemorate Victory Day on May 8th, underscoring their sacrifices and determination to confront tyranny.

 

Ultimately, the defeat of fascism requires a united front and unwavering commitment to democratic values. Just as the Allied coalition prevailed in WWII, today's international community must stand firm against authoritarian aggression and uphold the principles of freedom and justice.

 

In the face of Russia's belligerence, the choice is clear: defeat offers the promise of a brighter future, not just for Ukraine, but for Russia itself. It is a chance to break free from the shackles of imperialism and embrace a new era of democracy and peace.

 

2024-05-09

 

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What an absolute piece of rubbish. It is obviously written by a western journalist, from the viewpoint of the west. They still don’t get it. 
 

Russia will absolutely win because they are well on the way to achieving their stated objectives; protecting the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine and the de-militarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine, not some made up land grab narrative pushed by the west.

 

A defeated Russia offers the promise of reform and renewal, akin to historical precedents where defeat paved the way for democratic transition. By relinquishing its imperial ambitions, Russia can embark on a path towards normalcy, characterized by respect for the rule of law and democratic governance.

As usual, a call for regime change, just because a sovereign nation has different systems. Who the f are these people that they think they have the right to decide for others what’s good for them? The usual hubris that the global majority is starting to reject. Take 2 ends of the spectrum; the US and China. Guess in which country, the population is happier?

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1288231.shtml

 

Reports such as this highlight why more and more countries are moving towards multipolarism where countries exhibit mutual respect, instead of trying to intimidate and dominate others. A very good example is how Hungary and Serbia welcomed the Chinese president with open arms as China is all about common prosperity and win-win for all, not the zero sum game that some western countries espouse. .

[transam]

2 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

What an absolute piece of rubbish. It is obviously written by a western journalist, from the viewpoint of the west. They still don’t get it. 
 

Russia will absolutely win because they are well on the way to achieving their stated objectives; protecting the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine and the de-militarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine, not some made up land grab narrative pushed by the west.

 

A defeated Russia offers the promise of reform and renewal, akin to historical precedents where defeat paved the way for democratic transition. By relinquishing its imperial ambitions, Russia can embark on a path towards normalcy, characterized by respect for the rule of law and democratic governance.

As usual, a call for regime change, just because a sovereign nation has different systems. Who the f are these people that they think they have the right to decide for others what’s good for them? The usual hubris that the global majority is starting to reject. Take 2 ends of the spectrum; the US and China. Guess in which country, the population is happier?

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1288231.shtml

 

Reports such as this highlight why more and more countries are moving towards multipolarism where countries exhibit mutual respect, instead of trying to intimidate and dominate others. A very good example is how Hungary and Serbia welcomed the Chinese president with open arms as China is all about common prosperity and win-win for all, not the zero sum game that some western countries espouse. .

Well, we can't have communist writers here just for you...........

[Gweiloman]

11 minutes ago, transam said:

Well, we can't have communist writers here just for you...........

Sorry to say this but this shows how ignorant you are about life. I’m willing to bet that you have never been to Russia or China (correct me if I’m wrong) and thus, have no idea about life in those countries. Commenting about something you have no knowledge about is akin to opining about EVs when you have never even sat in one.

 

I have lived in Europe and visited other western countries more times than you can count. I’ve also lived in Hkg, visited China and Russia multiple times. My observations are that people are no more or no less happy of their political system as compared to another country. What’s important is what their government is doing for them and as I have linked, the Chinese people are among the happiest in the world. British? Even my daughters couldn’t wait to get out and have been for the past year with no plans to return soon.

 

Just ask the folks here on AN. How many would like to return to their home countries?

[transam]

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Sorry to say this but this shows how ignorant you are about life. I’m willing to bet that you have never been to Russia or China (correct me if I’m wrong) and thus, have no idea about life in those countries. Commenting about something you have no knowledge about is akin to opining about EVs when you have never even sat in one.

 

I have lived in Europe and visited other western countries more times than you can count. I’ve also lived in Hkg, visited China and Russia multiple times. My observations are that people are no more or no less happy of their political system as compared to another country. What’s important is what their government is doing for them and as I have linked, the Chinese people are among the happiest in the world. British? Even my daughters couldn’t wait to get out and have been for the past year with no plans to return soon.

 

Just ask the folks here on AN. How many would like to return to their home countries?

I gave you a laugh.......Plus, I don't like "Red's"...........😒

[Jingthing]

The Russian openly slated goal is to eliminate Ukraine.

[jas007]

The original story is pure BS. Fake News. Then again, I suppose some delusional people might actually believe it.  

 

Ukraine is out of men. Most have already been killed. A victory for Ukraine is no longer possible. They’ll be lucky to achieve anything but an unconditional surrender.  As for Russia, they’re taking their time. A war of attrition, as they say. They’re now in war mode and have an Army of almost a million men.  Neither Ukraine nor NATO could succeed in a ground war. The US certainly doesn’t have that type of military at this point, and NATO members could field only a small number of troops. And you don’t do that overnight.

Edited May 9 by jas007

[Gweiloman]

6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The Russian openly slated goal is to eliminate Ukraine.

Total nonsense.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Just ask the folks here on AN. How many would like to return to their home countries?

I agree. I never wanted to leave Thailand and had I been able to get my pension there would still be living in LOS and a lot happier.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Total nonsense.

Some posters apparently believe propaganda.

Heard so many times on here that if Russia wins in Ukraine they will be invading Europe. What a load of tosh.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, jas007 said:

The original story is pure BS. Fake News. Then again, I suppose some delusional people might actually believe it.  

 

Ukraine is out of men. Most have already been killed. A victory for Ukraine is no longer possible. They’ll be lucky to achieve anything but an unconditional surrender.  As for Russia, they’re taking their time. A war of attrition, as they say. They’re now in war mode and have an Army of almost a million men.  Neither Ukraine nor NATO could succeed in a ground war. The US certainly doesn’t have that type of military at this point, and NATO members could field only a small number of troops. And you don’t do that overnight.

I disagree only that "most have already been killed". Plenty that ran away to other countries than stay and die in Zelensky's war.

[jas007]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I disagree only that "most have already been killed". Plenty that ran away to other countries than stay and die in Zelensky's war.

Let’s say that most of the available men have already been eliminated.  Apparently, Ukraine would like to get their hands on those that aren’t in the country any more, but  how that’s going, I’m not sure. 

[transam]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I disagree only that "most have already been killed". Plenty that ran away to other countries than stay and die in Zelensky's war.

It's not Zelensky's war, it is Putin's war against Ukraine.......🙄

Please get your facts right before you post.......

 

 

[Jingthing]

24 minutes ago, transam said:

It's not Zelensky's war, it is Putin's war against Ukraine.......🙄

Please get your facts right before you post.......

 

 

That's what Kremlin propaganda repeaters do.

 

 

[Jingthing]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Some posters apparently believe propaganda.

Heard so many times on here that if Russia wins in Ukraine they will be invading Europe. What a load of tosh.

A load of truth more like. Ukraine is Europe.

[johng]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Ukraine is Europe.

 

If Ukraine is Europe then Shirley Russia is too ?

and both soon will be welcomed with open arms into the

European Union and NATO  😋

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, johng said:

 

If Ukraine is Europe then Shirley Russia is too ?

and both soon will be welcomed with open arms into the

European Union and NATO  😋

Look at a map. 

 

Next

....

[johng]

57 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Look at a map. 

 

Next

....

Yes please do look at the map

https://geology.com/world/europe-satellite-image.shtml

 

 

The Largest Country: Russia

Russia is the largest and most populous country in the continent, covering 39% of the land area in the Europe continent. Russia is also the largest country in the world.

 

Next .....

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, johng said:

Yes please do look at the map

https://geology.com/world/europe-satellite-image.shtml

 

 

The Largest Country: Russia

Russia is the largest and most populous country in the continent, covering 39% of the land area in the Europe continent. Russia is also the largest country in the world.

 

Next .....

Sleazy of you to not show the full map of Russia.

 

Anyway there is more to this than geography.

 

Japan is a western country.

 

Russia definitely isn't.

Edited May 10 by Jingthing

[johng]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Sleazy of you to not show the full map of Russia.

 

No sleazy of you not to admit your "mistake"

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, johng said:

No sleazy of you not to admit your "mistake"

Not a mistake.

The vast majority of Russia is in ASIA.

[johng]

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_Russia

 

The Russian Federation, commonly known as Russia, is the most extensive country in the world, covering 17,075,400 square kilometres (6,592,800 sq mi), more than an eighth of the Earth's land area.[1] Russia is a transcontinental country extending across the whole of northern Asia and 40% of Europe; it spans 11 time zones and incorporates a great range of environments and landforms. With 143 million people, Russia is the ninth most populated country. Russia has the world's largest mineral and energy resources, has the world's largest forest reserves, and its lakes contain approximately one-quarter of the Earth's fresh liquid water.

[Gweiloman]

59 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Sleazy of you to not show the full map of Russia.

 

Anyway there is more to this than geography.

 

Japan is a western country.

 

Russia definitely isn't.

Desperation is not a pretty sight. Ask any Japanese (and I know lots, having worked for the largest Japanese firm in its industry) if they consider themselves western and they will look at you as if you have lost your marbles, which in this case, is most probably true. Know the meaning of gaijin?

[Gweiloman]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

That's what Kremlin propaganda repeaters do.

 

 

Let’s listen to what a former US Ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock Jr. has to say about the reasons and consequences of the current conflict.

 

https://youtu.be/moEDnjH0sWU?si=tUoUz7zyFMchGjxm

 

Very informative, unless he is branded a Russian apologist by the usual suspects. Otherwise, they might learn something truthful for a change.

 

 

[retarius]

Wars can be won and lost in a heart beat by some chance happening, so while everything looks great for Russia (and I certainly hope they win), some chance happening like Putin getting assassinated, or removed from office by all those anxious Russians who hate him (but incomprehensibly keep voting for him), or more likely, by some sort of weather-related incident that floods Russia and causes it to sink. 

Just remember in the war between Syracuse (the one in Sicily, not in upstate NY) and Athens....the Athenians were on the brink of defeat when at the last gasp, they managed to bribe a Syracusean porter to open the back gate to the castle, thereby letting the Athenians rush in and win. 

[Danderman123]

If Russia loses, their collapse would be a surprise, similar to the Russian army collapsing in WWI.

 

Ukraine seems to be fighting a war of attrition, happy to generate loads of Russian casualties, and using drones to destroy Russian infrastructure. 

 

Russia is happy to oblige by conducting mini human wave attacks, sending in small formations that suffer heavy losses. It's possible that manpower losses may eventually shut down Russia's ability to launch attacks.

[Danderman123]

The Russian air defense network seems to be collapsing. Russia is big, so even if their airspace is undefended, there's a lot of targets left. Unclear if Ukraine has the drones necessary to win the war.

[Celsius]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:42 AM, Gweiloman said:

A very good example is how Hungary and Serbia welcomed the Chinese president with open arms as China is all about common prosperity and win-win for all, not the zero sum game that some western countries espouse.

 

Wow.... clueless.....completely clueless....

 

As a Serb with plenty of friends back in Belgrade we absolutely and definitely do not fancy Chinese....Russians even less so.

 

Every single one of my friends is either in USA (even after NATO bombed us), UK, Australia, Canada (like myself) even Japan and Dubai. Russians, Chinese, Serbs don't get along at all, never did, never will.

 

Russian draft dodgers in Serbia are not welcome at all.

Edited May 19 by Celsius

[beautifulthailand99]

On 5/10/2024 at 8:34 AM, johng said:

 

If Ukraine is Europe then Shirley Russia is too ?

and both soon will be welcomed with open arms into the

European Union and NATO  😋

My favourite contradiction of this war and there are many is - "Ukraine needs to join NATO so that article 5 applies and Russia will not dare attack it then ... but if Russia wins in Ukraine they won't stop and will attack NATO next".