Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The passage you quoted in your earlier post is from one contributor and is by no means the majority view - and there's is definitely pushback. Here's what one poster wrote in reply.

 

This post got 25 likes, whereas the post it was replying to got only 4 so it's clear which is the view that more of the contributors on that site favour.

That may be the case, and it's likely that contributors to a British military forum are likely to be invested in Ukraine, given they spent their military careers facing the Bear, but likes don't win wars. I suspect you know that.

 

IMO, short of some extraordinary event, or some Euro politician going baba and sending troops, the end isn't going to be in Zelensky's favour. With the extra billions they managed to rustle up by financial shennanigans, Ukraine could probably hold on for a while, but once men prefer jail to the front ( much better chance of survival ) the Euros run out of old kit to give away, and if Trump wins, what other option is there than negotiations?

[ballpoint]

A recent report in the Times on the systematic abduction and Russian indoctrination of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Ukrainian children, highlighting two boys who were lucky enough to be rescued, thanks to the Save Ukraine foundation:

 

"Like thousands of Ukrainian children, the boys were abducted to Russia — part of a programme to re-educate them and turn them into Russians.

Last year the International Criminal Court declared this a war crime, issuing arrest warrants for President Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, his children’s commissioner, who boasted of taking 720,000 Ukrainian children, including one she adopted herself."

 

Ukraine is saying "only" 20,000 have been abducted, but even one would be too many.  It's suggested that Putin is actively blocking any attempts to rescue further children, and points to another reason for abducting these kids - other than turning them into cannon fodder (as also reported in the link):

 

"He (Putin) clearly understands every child abducted is a witness to war crimes.”

 

‘They tried to make us Russians’: the children Putin stole (thetimes.com)

 

[beautifulthailand99]

BILD reporter and uber Ukrainain supporter and cheerleader reports 6 more villages lost at the front.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

https://archive.ph/ecraA

 

The Telegraph is in full on "conditional" Trump support but the pivot requires them, like Boris to maintain full on Ukraine support. I don't imagine Trump reads any of this stuff in the few moments when he can drag  himself away from re-run of his rallies on OAN wiping Big Mac juices of his breakfast bib. 

 

This provides context for the phone conversation between Donald Trump and Mr Zelensky which took place last Friday night. Despite all the bad things Mr Trump has said against Ukraine, the latest exchanges have encouraged Kyiv. The two great political showmen, first made famous by their television shows, seem to have got on well. Until now, Mr Trump has felt the need to assail any Biden-associated policy. Now Mr Biden has left the electoral scene, one hopes he may see political advantage in taking a lead to help Ukraine.

[Mavideol]

Russian commander fighting in Ukraine shot dead by his own troops, according to intercepted phone call

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russian-commander-fighting-ukraine-shot-125650646.html

[Mavideol]

Ukraine in mass drone attack on targets in Russia as Putin’s forces launch intense assaults in east

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-mass-drone-attack-targets-125615618.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ukraine-Russia latest: Kyiv launches major Crimea drone attack as Zelensky’s foreign minister arrives in China

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

[Mavideol]

they are approaching the wrong people, China will only defend Russia's interests, waste of time and energy

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba to visit China for talks in search for end to war

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/ukraines-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-093000505.html

 

[Mavideol]

still can't understand why they don't let him used the guns/missiles/planes as he wishes

 

Zelensky calls on Starmer to ‘show leadership’ and allow Ukrainian strikes on Russia

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-calls-starmer-show-leadership-112943596.html

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, ballpoint said:

A recent report in the Times on the systematic abduction and Russian indoctrination of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Ukrainian children, highlighting two boys who were lucky enough to be rescued, thanks to the Save Ukraine foundation:

 

"Like thousands of Ukrainian children, the boys were abducted to Russia — part of a programme to re-educate them and turn them into Russians.

Last year the International Criminal Court declared this a war crime, issuing arrest warrants for President Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, his children’s commissioner, who boasted of taking 720,000 Ukrainian children, including one she adopted herself."

 

Ukraine is saying "only" 20,000 have been abducted, but even one would be too many.  It's suggested that Putin is actively blocking any attempts to rescue further children, and points to another reason for abducting these kids - other than turning them into cannon fodder (as also reported in the link):

 

"He (Putin) clearly understands every child abducted is a witness to war crimes.”

 

‘They tried to make us Russians’: the children Putin stole (thetimes.com)

 

That's without the adult civilians left perishing in Russia too. 

 

7,000 Ukrainian civilians currently held in Russian-controlled prisons.

These people are held in dire conditions, often abused and tortured, without any means of communication. They are also trapped in a legal limbo, as international law prohibits the capture and exchange of civilians for prisoners of war.

https://kyivindependent.com/stuck-in-legal-limbo-ukrainian-civilians-endure-torture-in-russian-prisons/

[Mavideol]

choosing the wrong friends may have consequences, now live with them

 

Hungary stripped of EU meeting over Ukraine stance

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/hungary-stripped-eu-meeting-over-022846468.html

[beautifulthailand99]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

still can't understand why they don't let him used the guns/missiles/planes as he wishes

 

Zelensky calls on Starmer to ‘show leadership’ and allow Ukrainian strikes on Russia

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-calls-starmer-show-leadership-112943596.html

 

 

From my Telegraph link above.

 

When our newly-appointed Prime Minister met Mr Zelensky at the Washington summit two weeks ago, Sir Keir Starmer told him that he could use Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles for strikes inside Russia. Mr Zelensky hailed this as a great breakthrough.
The following week, however, it was countermanded. No, mumbled an embarrassed Whitehall, that was not what Sir Keir had meant. The Ukrainians were welcome to have Storm Shadows but could not aim them into Russia except right by the border. Mr Sullivan is alleged to have rung No 10 in a panic and made Sir Keir back off.

[Mavideol]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

From my Telegraph link above.

 

When our newly-appointed Prime Minister met Mr Zelensky at the Washington summit two weeks ago, Sir Keir Starmer told him that he could use Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles for strikes inside Russia. Mr Zelensky hailed this as a great breakthrough.
The following week, however, it was countermanded. No, mumbled an embarrassed Whitehall, that was not what Sir Keir had meant. The Ukrainians were welcome to have Storm Shadows but could not aim them into Russia except right by the border. Mr Sullivan is alleged to have rung No 10 in a panic and made Sir Keir back off.

maybe he didn't follow up on that, if he did why would Zelensky keep asking

[beautifulthailand99]

25 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

maybe he didn't follow up on that, if he did why would Zelensky keep asking

There's a triple lock apparently UK,France and the US. Starmer would neber go rogue against the US under any circumstances. But no harm in Zelenskiy asking , which he obvioulsy has but it's a US red line, with good reasons. Putin has threatened to supply the Houthis with advanced air to ship missiles and set the Red Sea on fire. Gas prices to the moon isn't a Democratcic election strategy but it is Trump's.

 

https://archive.ph/3O4N1

 

[Gottfrid]

On 6/18/2024 at 7:16 AM, Gweiloman said:

Nato is the dominant military alliance and yet for the past 2 years and billions of dollars spent, they are still struggling to contain the Russian army from advancing in Ukraine, an army that many western experts including many posters on here

have claimed is weak, inept, blah, blah, blah.

So, you live in the belief, that they can´t stop Russia from advancing? Have you totally missed that they are at the same time trying to avoid a 3rd world war? Do you think that might be a reason?

[frank83628]

1 minute ago, Gottfrid said:

So, you live in the belief, that they can´t stop Russia from advancing? Have you totally missed that they are at the same time trying to avoid a 3rd world war? Do you think that might be a reason?

easiest way to avoid that is go to the negotiation table.....but the US uk & nato wont

[beautifulthailand99]

19 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

they are approaching the wrong people, China will only defend Russia's interests, waste of time and energy

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba to visit China for talks in search for end to war

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/ukraines-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-093000505.html

 

 

Or alternatively Ukraine is creatively looking at ways for an "out" and realises China could be an 'honest' broker as they pretty much own Russia now. Zelenskiy have very publically touted an end to the hot war in November. The cogs are moving

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, frank83628 said:

easiest way to avoid that is go to the negotiation table.....but the US uk & nato wont

I strongly beleive we are at an inflection point where reality meets hope and reality wins. Wars are won on the battlefiled but end at the negotation table. The US has never wanted an endless war and they are looking for an off ramp. Because if you are effectively out of men,ammo and money and what does arrive is piecemeal and short and NATO won't commit to boots on the ground where can you go ?

[RayC]

1 hour ago, frank83628 said:

easiest way to avoid that is go to the negotiation table.....but the US uk & nato wont

 

I disagree. The easiest way to avoid WW3 is for Russia to withdraw unconditionally from Ukraine but, sadly, that is not going to happen.

[beautifulthailand99]

From the Pope is a Putin shill to warm welcome to a Vatican envoy and Ukraine's FM to China and Zelenskiy saying the hot war will be over by November. Can you see what it is yet ? Peace is coming and not before time. Ceasefire , armistice and a DMZ.  Zelensky is slowly changing the narrative and turning it towards the idea that the lives of soldiers are more important than territories

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/21/7466734/

 

All of us understand that we have to finish the war as soon as possible." Zelensky welcomes The Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Parolin to Kyiv. Zelensky tells him the war needs to end ASAP in order to save lives

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

From my Telegraph link above.

 

When our newly-appointed Prime Minister met Mr Zelensky at the Washington summit two weeks ago, Sir Keir Starmer told him that he could use Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles for strikes inside Russia. Mr Zelensky hailed this as a great breakthrough.
The following week, however, it was countermanded. No, mumbled an embarrassed Whitehall, that was not what Sir Keir had meant. The Ukrainians were welcome to have Storm Shadows but could not aim them into Russia except right by the border. Mr Sullivan is alleged to have rung No 10 in a panic and made Sir Keir back off.

Some of us noted that Starmer is likely an <deleted> a while back, and seems we were right. Any embarrassment by Starmer is IMO of his own making.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

So, you live in the belief, that they can´t stop Russia from advancing? Have you totally missed that they are at the same time trying to avoid a 3rd world war? Do you think that might be a reason?

So what? The situation is what it is and whatever the reason for not stopping Russia advancing is irrelevant to facts on the ground. Excuses don't win battles.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Or alternatively Ukraine is creatively looking at ways for an "out" and realises China could be an 'honest' broker as they pretty much own Russia now. Zelenskiy have very publically touted an end to the hot war in November. The cogs are moving

That could change if Zelensky thinks Harris might win. I doubt she will have a different policy to Biden.

If that happens it will be bad luck for the Ukrainians that will die in the war.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

https://archive.ph/ecraA

 

The Telegraph is in full on "conditional" Trump support but the pivot requires them, like Boris to maintain full on Ukraine support. I don't imagine Trump reads any of this stuff in the few moments when he can drag  himself away from re-run of his rallies on OAN wiping Big Mac juices of his breakfast bib. 

 

This provides context for the phone conversation between Donald Trump and Mr Zelensky which took place last Friday night. Despite all the bad things Mr Trump has said against Ukraine, the latest exchanges have encouraged Kyiv. The two great political showmen, first made famous by their television shows, seem to have got on well. Until now, Mr Trump has felt the need to assail any Biden-associated policy. Now Mr Biden has left the electoral scene, one hopes he may see political advantage in taking a lead to help Ukraine.

Good post, but a shame you let your personal opinion of Trump taint it.

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That could change if Zelensky thinks Harris might win. I doubt she will have a different policy to Biden.

If that happens it will be bad luck for the Ukrainians that will die in the war.

I don't think ot matters much who wins now if you are out of men , the ammo and kit had dried up as donor nations have run out of stuff in storage or want what's left for themselves.Whilst western private arms industry can't reestablish long mothballed production lines (certainly in the case of artillery) or scale up in any meaningful time scale then we are entering the end game. If Biden's smart he will nudge Zelenkiy to the finishing line before elections in the US so he can claim that victory for the Dems rather than let Trump have it soon after if he wins.

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Good post, but a shame you let your personal opinion of Trump taint it.

 

Thanks ! Though I suspect that's what he looks like in the morning after a fitful night dreaming of being King of the World.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

BILD reporter and uber Ukrainain supporter and cheerleader reports 6 more villages lost at the front.

 

 

What some armchair warriors may not understand is that as well as bullets an army needs morale. Funny thing morale- it's not something that can be supplied like canned food, it's not something physical like a rifle, but it's as essential to win a war as either canned food or rifles. Good leaders like Napoleon knew how to instill good morale, but even he was unable to stop it vanishing like frost in the sun when events go against the troops.

One thing likely to go against good morale is when one's side starts to lose. Seems that Ukraine is in that situation now, and no amount of Zelensky in his cosplay soldier's suit on tv is going to revive it, IMO.

 

On the other hand, winning is excellent for instilling morale and that is on the Russian side.

[beautifulthailand99]

 

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I don't think ot matters much who wins now if you are out of men , the ammo and kit had dried up as donor nations have run out of stuff in storage or want what's left for themselves.Whilst western private arms industry can't reestablish long mothballed production lines (certainly in the case of artillery) or scale up in any meaningful time scale then we are entering the end game. If Biden's smart he will nudge Zelenkiy to the finishing line before elections in the US so he can claim that victory for the Dems rather than let Trump have it soon after if he wins.

I agree with that, but we are talking about Zelensky here, and IMO he knows his fate once it's over, and like a certain other leader prolonging a war to stay in power, he may choose to lose more of his own than capitulate.

Of course that is only my opinion.

[beautifulthailand99]

 

NOELREPORTS  telling the truth -  NAFO may turn on their own soon for sowing the seeds of defeatism.