Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[jvs]

 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Escalation means Europe on a path to total war footing and possibility of nukes.

 

Perhaps it does but repeating myself, there is one man to blame if this happens.

 

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

China won't let Russia lose either or they know it's them next. Stalemate. No thanks.

 

There is no evidence to suggest - or reason to believe - that a Russian defeat would encourage the West to threaten China militarily.

 

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

6 million folks have died in the Congo and no one cares or comments about it  so why should I care about this sad and tragic affair in a country far away unfair as it no doubt is ?  The west walked away from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya amongst others and they will walk away from Ukraine with crocodile tears and Zelenskiy will get that ride out of Dodge in the end. 

 

I don't understand what point you are trying to make.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 FT news articles on the war are beginning to be scripted with more openness and honesty which seems a prelude to negotiations, though these will remain a slow process as Russia will be able to remain poorer for longer than Ukraine will be able to endure colder and darker. Expect a winter thaw.

 

https://archive.ph/l1AwJ

 

One Ukrainian government official described Saturday’s assault as “devastating” while another said it was likely to mean that by winter residents would be spending a vast majority of their day without electricity.

    Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press. One of the officials said 1.2GW of power generation was lost in Saturday’s bombardment alone, while infrastructure critical for transporting gas from underground storage facilities in western Ukraine was badly damaged.

    Asked what the damage would mean for the months ahead, one of the officials put it bluntly: “We should prepare for life in the cold and the dark.”

 

 

Or perhaps the FT has been reporting with honesty and openness all along.

[beautifulthailand99]

24 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Perhaps it does but repeating myself, there is one man to blame if this happens.

 

 

There is no evidence to suggest - or reason to believe - that a Russian defeat would encourage the West to threaten China militarily.

 

 

I don't understand what point you are trying to make.

 

25 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Or perhaps the FT has been reporting with honesty and openness all along.

It's a great paper and my first go to of the day with my Firefox paywall busting software , then the Telegraph , Spectator  ,Mail ,NYT and WAPO sometimes WSJ  and New Yorker with a side order of the Economist and New Statesman. Guardian is always last. Clearing house for all Ukrainian info is Reditt Ukraine/Russia report and YT Willy OAM and History Legends.

 

My point such as it is is why choose Ukraine as the hill to die on if it's about democracy and the international rules based order. We've seen the US Empire breaks those rules when it suits them and leave countries in ruins. The world is a nasty place there are numerous causes to get excited about most we choose to ignore. I wish them all the best of luck on their rocky road to nationhood and true independence. I really do - just don't see why I should pay for it. I'm on an island with nukes and a bloody great moat around it (the UK) , it's not my fight , it's not my neighbour. Selfish I know but then most people are.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

The China question.My philosophy is don't fight wars and if you must don't fight ones that you can't win or where both sides lose and overarching those is don't poke the bear as Napoleon and Hitler found out to their cost.

 

Viewed from Beijing, the defeat of Russia would risk leaving China dangerously isolated. As one Chinese diplomat puts it, sardonically, America’s proposition to Beijing could be summarised as: “Please help us to defeat your closest ally, so that we can turn on you next.” In a similar way, Putin knows that Chinese support is completely indispensable to the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

 

https://archive.ph/FkQhQ

[beautifulthailand99]

American armor turns out not to be the Wunderwaffe many thought it was. An $9 million dollar world leading tank destroyed by a $500 Russian Pirahna FPV drone.

 

https://archive.ph/vtx2q

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, rabas said:

Sigh.

 

27. You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Only post a link, the headline and three sentences from the article. Content in the public domain is limited to the same restrictions.

Sigh indeed. There is no mention of "cut and paste" in that rule.

You seem to post with obscure references and expect us to know what you are referring to. Perhaps if you do as I do and post the rule when referring to one there will be no confusion.

You had no problem posting it in response to my question, so you could have done so in your original comment.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 FT news articles on the war are beginning to be scripted with more openness and honesty which seems a prelude to negotiations, though these will remain a slow process as Russia will be able to remain poorer for longer than Ukraine will be able to endure colder and darker. Expect a winter thaw.

 

https://archive.ph/l1AwJ

 

One Ukrainian government official described Saturday’s assault as “devastating” while another said it was likely to mean that by winter residents would be spending a vast majority of their day without electricity.

    Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press. One of the officials said 1.2GW of power generation was lost in Saturday’s bombardment alone, while infrastructure critical for transporting gas from underground storage facilities in western Ukraine was badly damaged.

    Asked what the damage would mean for the months ahead, one of the officials put it bluntly: “We should prepare for life in the cold and the dark.”

 

I'm pretty sure that I know what the average Ukrainian man is thinking as they hope to not be sent to the front, but I have zero idea of what will be in the minds of the western leaders as they survey the likely end of their proxy war on terms not of their choosing. Do they feel any guilt for all the young men that died because of them, are they concerned for the ordinary Ukrainian shivering in the dark of winter, will they ever accept that it was a bad idea, or is it all someone else's fault?

 

When it is all over, agreements signed, who is going to pay to reconstruct Ukraine? One suspects certain US corporations will be lining up, but will the taxpayers of western countries be willing? I can't see Russia or China fronting up with a concrete mixer, unless someone else pays for it.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, rabas said:

And it doesn't mean NATO, they are part of NATO.  It means we have a relationship with them like we do with other countries, where we supply weapons so they can defend themselves in the future. But it is not, if you notice, I was the one when—and you guys did report it at TIME—the one that I was saying that I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine. 

Is anyone able to translate that into understandable English? I'm not up with Biden speak.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, rabas said:

Time magazine June 4. interview with Biden:

 

1) Full transcript  [reference] 

2) Time fact check of Biden's comments [reference]

 

It's a long interview, the first 40% is on Ukraine.

 

Asked if NATO is on a slippery slope to war,

 

Biden:  "No, we're on a slippery slope for war if we don't do something about Ukraine."

 

Biden's comment on NATO and Ukraine:

 

Biden: Peace looks like making sure Russia never, never, never, never occupies Ukraine. That's what peace looks like. And it doesn't mean NATO, they are part of NATO.  It means we have a relationship with them like we do with other countries, where we supply weapons so they can defend themselves in the future. But it is not, if you notice, I was the one when—and you guys did report it at TIME—the one that I was saying that I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine. 

 

Perhaps you should take note of your own post that you so kindly gave to me

 

16 hours ago, rabas said:

Sigh.

 

27. You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Only post a link, the headline and three sentences from the article. Content in the public domain is limited to the same restrictions.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/3/2024 at 7:55 PM, NativeBob said:

PS: Shangri La in SG is indeed high quality hotel, still remember cup of coffee for $16

It is indeed a high quality hotel. I had many a lunch time meal there during my time in Singapore, but before a coffee cost $16- cost the same as any hotel in the city area. They had a very nice aviary in the coffee shop and a spiffy doorman to open the door for me.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/4/2024 at 2:47 AM, Gweiloman said:

Oh dear. It seems like the global majority has spoken. 160 nations have been invited but are any countries of significance attending?

 

 

Not exactly a new thing. The article is from 2022. The site won't let me quote the relevant headline, but it's right at the start

 

https://www.dw.com/en/oil-us-russia-whose-side-saudi-arabia-really-on/a-63416006

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The pushing of Russia into China's arms, which was never a given, will, in the annals of history be seen as the biggest foreign policy mistep of the 21st century and a further step on the road to the ruin of the west.

While I agree with you, if one has eyes to see beyond the propaganda, the west is well on the way to ruin even without a China/ Russia buddy buddy relationship.

What gender do you choose to be, and is the sky falling?

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

https://kyivindependent.com/us-embassy-in-ukraine-men-with-dual-citizenship-will-no-longer-be-able-to-leave-the-country/

 

Here is the official U.S. Government statement saying it does not have enough influence:

 

"The U.S. Embassy is limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens. If you are in Ukraine and cannot leave the country, shelter in place and obey all local orders. If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport."

 

LOL. The US is involved up to the neck in two major conflicts and it seems that in both Biden is ignored. Oh dear. Perhaps they see him as a dead duck in November.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Of course if Europe goes up in flames for the 3rd time in a 100 years you ageing expats in Thailand, egging it on from afar will be sitting pretty. All the bluster but none of the brass and the blood.

On that I agree 100%. Plenty of the armchair warriors egging on a full scale European war, but in no way being prepared to go and join in the victory parade of Ukraine in Red Square.

 

Couple of years ago there was a post from a western guy that had volunteered to join the Ukraine army. I often wonder how he is getting on, or if he is even alive, as I read this sub forum.

[beautifulthailand99]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

On that I agree 100%. Plenty of the armchair warriors egging on a full scale European war, but in no way being prepared to go and join in the victory parade of Ukraine in Red Square.

 

Couple of years ago there was a post from a western guy that had volunteered to join the Ukraine army. I often wonder how he is getting on, or if he is even alive, as I read this sub forum.

The emoji front warriors who hit and run with an anonymous pointless intervention keep up their guerilla warfare though !  I've every respect for any who do service in whatever capacity even if I think they are misguided or misused by their polticians. They have been groomed. Remember this link below  - this is when I realised the narrative we were being fed was propaganda nonsense. Which has indeed done harm to the cause they espouse. It minimised the actual threat that Russia posed and led to complacency and they were digging in building huge fortifications to hold their positions. NATO  hasn't had a near peer adversary in their history and doesn't it show. That and the military industrial complex filling their boots with overpriced near useless tech. In both the slavic personalities of Russia and Ukraine is capacity for suffering and pain and resignation to death that we just don't have anymore in the cosseted west. They are more like each other than they are with us and therin lies the hate. If "we" ever get involved with boots on the ground and  once the body bags started to pile up the anti-war movement would grow like topsy. It would be the anti-Vietnam war movement on steroids. 

 

There is talk on Willy OAM of foreign volunteers having to bribe their way out of the legion and death threats against them when they see the endemic corruption that affects their supplies. Sadly he is probably dead or realises it wasn't the battle of good vs evil he thought it was.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11824349/Russian-troops-forced-use-SHOVELS-hand-hand-combat-Ukraine.html

[kwonitoy]

 

[kwonitoy]

 

[Gweiloman]

20 hours ago, rabas said:

Sigh.

 

"Peace summit without inviting the main protagonist, in reality the only party that can materially affect the course of the war"

 

Putin was "not invited" because he repeatedly and publicly refused to attend [reference- see section Russia]. It is now reported that he also demanded China not go. This was one of his 3 demands on his recent trip to Beijing. [reference].

 

So you mean Putin wishes never ending war?

 

Sigh indeed.

 

It’s the FDFA that states that Putin has repeatedly and publicly refused to attend. That is not evidence. Russia should have been invited and if and when they refuse to attend, then the west can claim the moral high ground. In any event, the fact that Russia was not invited makes the whole event a sham and a farce and most of the global majority views it as such, in my opinion.

 

It was also reported that Putin demanded China not go. LOL. Reported in western media of course. I wonder how any intelligent individual can gobble up such nonsense and believe it to be the absolute truth. China might well send a low level delegation for appearance sakes. No high ranking official will bother with an exercise in futility.

 

 

[Gweiloman]

18 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I made an exception for you.

Was it you that said “content free micro post”? That was an absolute gem and the best take down I’ve ever read.

[Gweiloman]

16 hours ago, RayC said:

 

This amounts to saying no more than saying, "My information is better than yours" which, in absence of proof, is in itself a demonstration of bias and prejudice.

 

 

Putin's raison d'être for the 'Special Military Operation' is to 1)  cleanse Ukraine of its' Nazis 2) demilitarise Ukraine.

 

Although Nazis are small in numbers, unfortunately they (probably) exist in every country. Should we therefore accept this as a justification for an invasion?

 

In a similar vein, whilst Russia might have reasons to be concerned about any increase in Ukraine's military capabilities, does this give her the right to invade and demilitarise her neighbour?

 

The correct answer to both questions is 'No'. It really is as simple as that irrespective of where you source your data.

This amounts to saying no more than saying, "My information is better than yours" which, in absence of proof, is in itself a demonstration of bias and prejudice

 

No, it just means that I have more information and therefore am in a better position to reach a better conclusion.

 

whilst Russia might have reasons to be concerned about any increase in Ukraine's military capabilities, does this give her the right to invade and demilitarise her neighbour?

 

Powerful countries don’t bother with what’s right or wrong when it comes to matters of national security. Might is right. Just look at America. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, right?

[Mavideol]

isn't France a NATO member, attack on ONE is considered an attack on ALL..... Vlad is playing with fire or is it his usual hot air balloon threat

 

Ukraine-Russia war – latest: Moscow ready to strike French troops as UK sends Kyiv 1,000 drones

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-latest-putin-035046932.html

 

 

 

[Mavideol]

and here we have another one, bla,bla,bla.... sheer desperation 555

Putin warns Russia could provide weapons to strike West

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-warns-russia-could-weapons-231407849.html

 

 

 

[Mavideol]

that's not news, we knew it for quite some time

Zelensky says China’s ‘support to Russia’ will extend war in Ukraine during surprise appearance in Asia

https://au.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-urges-asian-countries-join-070004942.html

 

[RayC]

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

This amounts to saying no more than saying, "My information is better than yours" which, in absence of proof, is in itself a demonstration of bias and prejudice

 

No, it just means that I have more information and therefore am in a better position to reach a better conclusion.

 

That is presumptive and arrogant. You have no way of knowing how much information other posters may have.

 

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

 

whilst Russia might have reasons to be concerned about any increase in Ukraine's military capabilities, does this give her the right to invade and demilitarise her neighbour?

 

Powerful countries don’t bother with what’s right or wrong when it comes to matters of national security. Might is right. Just look at America. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, right?

 

If you start with the premise that 'might is right', then just about anything can be justified. I assumed that we were discussing the more specific reasons and justification for the invasion.

 

I prefer the idiom 'two wrongs don't make a right' to 'what's good for the goose ...'

[Gweiloman]

4 hours ago, RayC said:

 

That is presumptive and arrogant. You have no way of knowing how much information other posters may have.

...'

Not at all. If you’re on the other side, any sources that you link to will be instantly shot down as propaganda or outright lies, if the link even matches AN’s standards in the first instance. This is conclusive evidence for me that those posters totally ignore any reports, articles or opinions that might show possible justification for Russia’s decision to initiate this SMO. In, the majority of posters even refuse to consider this a SMO, preferring instead to label it as an unprovoked assault, land grab etc etc. 

 

 

4 hours ago, RayC said:

 

 

If you start with the premise that 'might is right', then just about anything can be justified. I assumed that we were discussing the more specific reasons and justification for the invasion.

 

I prefer the idiom 'two wrongs don't make a right' to 'what's good for the goose ...'

 

While two wrongs don’t make a right, just calling out one side is hypocritical. I generally do not engage with hypocrites as they are among the lowest of the low. Fact that I generally respond to your posts should be proof enough that I don’t consider you in this camp.

 

 

[tgw]

47 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

the majority of posters even refuse to consider this a SMO

 

ok, let's look at this specific question of "SMO" : two questions
What is the difference between an SMO in a foreign country without its consent with the goal of overthrowing its government and a war ?

Second, by which objective criteria can we differentiate an SMO from a war ?

[kwonitoy]

 

 

[coolcarer]

12 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

 

 

Nice, I wonder if that’s some of the longer range weapons they can now use.

[GroveHillWanderer]

According to The Telegraph, the whole Russian "Victory Day" offensive on Kharkhiv has failed - and seriously backfired on them.

 

Quote

Within hours of Biden changing the policy, Ukrainian HIMARS bombarded Belgorod. As a direct consequence of the Russian offensive, more and better Ukrainian weapons are striking deeper inside Russia. 

 

And even if the Russians don’t care about capturing Kharkiv, and don’t mind getting rocketed in Belgorod – if, that is, the whole Victory Day offensive was a feint – the offensive still failed. 

 

Putin’s ‘Victory Day’ offensive in northern Ukraine has backfired spectacularly