Kamala Harris Erases Trump's Swing-State Lead, Turning Election into a Tight Contest

[Social Media]

 

Vice President Kamala Harris has remarkably erased Donald Trump’s lead across seven critical battleground states, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. This unexpected development underscores a significant shift in the political dynamics as Harris leverages growing enthusiasm among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, positioning herself as a formidable contender against the former president.

 

The survey reveals that Harris has secured the backing of 48% of voters, narrowly surpassing Trump, who stands at 47%. This statistical dead heat marks a more favorable standing for Harris compared to President Joe Biden, who trailed by two points before his withdrawal from the race. In pivotal states like Arizona and Nevada, Harris has overtaken Trump and has significantly widened Biden’s previous lead in Michigan. These numbers suggest Harris has the potential to reassemble the voter coalition that once propelled President Barack Obama to the White House, offering her a clearer path to victory than Biden, who struggled to galvanize the Democratic base.

 

 

Just over a week into Harris becoming the presumptive nominee, the poll provides early indications that the Democratic Party’s bold move to replace an incumbent president on the ballot is yielding the desired effect. However, the race remains fiercely competitive. Across the surveyed swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the gap between Harris and Trump is within the poll’s statistical margin of error. Harris may currently be experiencing a “honeymoon phase,” as described by Trump’s top pollster, but she faces challenges in gaining trust on critical issues such as the economy and immigration.

 

 

Nevertheless, the survey highlights a surge in enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket under Harris. Her candidacy appears to have energized key constituencies in the swing states, with more than one-third of voters indicating they are much more likely to vote now that the contest is between Trump and Harris. This sentiment is particularly strong among Black and Hispanic voters, with 49% and 44% respectively saying they are much more likely to cast ballots in November. Nearly two-thirds of Black voters reported being somewhat or much more likely to vote.

 

Kamala moves the needle. People are excited,” said Robert Banks in downtown Marietta, Georgia, where he was distributing liquor to a local business. Banks, who is 47 and Black, plans to vote for the vice president. Although he admired Biden, he felt the president’s age made him vulnerable to attacks by Trump. Banks expressed relief at having a different candidate at the top of the ticket, despite his dissatisfaction with how Biden was “forced out.” “I’m definitely not for Trump,” he said. “We can’t go through four more years of him.”

 

Harris’ appeal to Black and Hispanic voters poses a significant challenge for the Trump campaign, which has long aimed to court these groups, particularly younger men. This strategy was seen as a way for the GOP to broaden its support beyond its traditional base and compensate for a likely deficit among suburban women. However, Biden’s withdrawal has disrupted this plan. Trump has struggled to define Harris without appearing racist or sexist, risking alienation of swing-state voters. Additionally, Trump faces ongoing legal challenges, including being a convicted felon found liable for both sexual abuse and defamation, with an order to pay $83 million. Harris has capitalized on these issues by highlighting her record as a prosecutor.

 

Political operatives suggest that the new match-up could alter the electoral strategies for both parties. Harris’ candidacy has bolstered Democratic prospects in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, creating more potential paths to victory than seemed possible for the 81-year-old Biden. However, Harris must still perform well in northern industrial states. While she is ahead in Michigan and slightly ahead in Wisconsin according to the new poll, Trump maintains a lead in Pennsylvania. These factors are crucial as Harris considers her choice for a running mate, aiming to solidify her position and maximize her chances of winning the presidency.

 

Credit: Bloomberg  2024-08-01

 

 

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[Tug]

And she’s just getting started!!+ trumps going off the deep end lol 😂 you guys and gals look up the meeting/ town hall he had today with the black women's journalist group OMG did he blow it he had them so angry it sounded like they were growling yeiks!!

[candide]

No wonder MAGAs are panicking and Illisdean has disappeared! 😀

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

[Deputy7]

No worries President Trump will beat Harris by a large margin. He will then close the borders to illegals and stop these stupid wars. He is a man of Peace! Harris is Indian not Black it’s been discovered!

[candide]

21 minutes ago, Deputy7 said:

No worries President Trump will beat Harris by a large margin. He will then close the borders to illegals and stop these stupid wars. He is a man of Peace! Harris is Indian not Black it’s been discovered!

Dully noted! 😁

[Skipalongcassidy]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

And she’s just getting started!!+ trumps going off the deep end lol 😂 you guys and gals look up the meeting/ town hall he had today with the black women's journalist group OMG did he blow it he had them so angry it sounded like they were growling yeiks!!

[thaipo7]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

And she’s just getting started!!+ trumps going off the deep end lol 😂 you guys and gals look up the meeting/ town hall he had today with the black women's journalist group OMG did he blow it he had them so angry it sounded like they were growling yeiks!!

Yeah, Just getting started.  For all of you who wants to bring Communism to America are on the right path.  I notice in local advertising the same lies told in the Biden ads are being used in Harris ads.  Nothing will change this.  Just one example.  The price on insulin at $35 was started by Trump.  The government process in getting anything done is slow, especially when people are working against you.  It was finally approved and pass on Biden's shift and of course he took credit for this.  Now the ad I saw says it was Harris who capped insulin cost at $35.  So who was it?  All you have to do is look this up on the Internet.  If this has not be changed, it is there.

[Tug]

8 minutes ago, thaipo7 said:

Yeah, Just getting started.  For all of you who wants to bring Communism to America are on the right path.  I notice in local advertising the same lies told in the Biden ads are being used in Harris ads.  Nothing will change this.  Just one example.  The price on insulin at $35 was started by Trump.  The government process in getting anything done is slow, especially when people are working against you.  It was finally approved and pass on Biden's shift and of course he took credit for this.  Now the ad I saw says it was Harris who capped insulin cost at $35.  So who was it?  All you have to do is look this up on the Internet.  If this has not be changed, it is there.

The right for Medicare to negotiate drug prices has been accomplished under this administration the vice president is part of this administration I hope that clears things up for you but I doubt it 

[Danderman123]

13 minutes ago, thaipo7 said:

 Just one example.  The price on insulin at $35 was started by Trump.  

What are you on about now?

[Danderman123]

If North Carolina is a swing state, Trump is in trouble.

[thaibeachlovers]

Who actually believes any polls this far out from the election?

[thaibeachlovers]

Trump has one major advantage over her, IMO. She's proven incompetent, while Trump has proven record of not starting a war.

[Danderman123]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Who actually believes any polls this far out from the election?

The polls today are weak predictors of the results in November.

 

But they give a snapshot of the state of the race today, when more people are paying attention to the race.

 

 

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

And she’s just getting started!!+ trumps going off the deep end lol 😂 you guys and gals look up the meeting/ town hall he had today with the black women's journalist group OMG did he blow it he had them so angry it sounded like they were growling yeiks!!

If she gets in  for the next four years America is sunk.

[Danderman123]

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Trump has one major advantage over her, IMO. She's proven incompetent, while Trump has proven record of not starting a war.

You think Trump made a competent choice in JD Vance?

[MicroB]

6 minutes ago, thaipo7 said:

Yeah, Just getting started.  For all of you who wants to bring Communism to America are on the right path.  I notice in local advertising the same lies told in the Biden ads are being used in Harris ads.  Nothing will change this.  Just one example.  The price on insulin at $35 was started by Trump.  The government process in getting anything done is slow, especially when people are working against you.  It was finally approved and pass on Biden's shift and of course he took credit for this.  Now the ad I saw says it was Harris who capped insulin cost at $35.  So who was it?  All you have to do is look this up on the Internet.  If this has not be changed, it is there.

 

Actually neither. The $35 cost was proposed by Eli Lilley who approached the CMS in 2019, after, on their own initiative, looked at setting the $35 per month fee. The  government wanted it set a bit higher, by Eli Lilley had done the groundwork to determine the level it should be set at for best return; if it went higher than $35/month, they observed patients would abanoon their insulin. It was in the drug company's interest to sell as much insulin as possible. The study happened during the Trump Administration, but it wasn't their initiative. During that period, about 1.5 million accessed insulin at $35/month. During that period, the drug company covered patient costs, so overall it was revenue neutral. Some say the $35/month in the IRA was based on an average copay, but others state it was set based on the work done between Eli Lilley and Unitedhealth.

 

Rand did the evaluation:

https://www.cms.gov/priorities/innovation/data-and-reports/2024/pdss-second-eval-rpt

 

Prior to the IRA, individual states were setting their own Copay caps, and they were all over the place. Illinois had it at $100 per month, New Mexico at $25. What the IRA did was make it mandatory for all insurance schemes to set a £35 cap.

 

What the Trump government established was a voluntary, time-limited model under the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation known as the Part D Senior Savings Model. Under this model, participating Medicare Part D prescription drug plans covered at least one of each dosage form and type of insulin product at no more than $35 per month. The model was in effect from 2021 through 2023, and less than half of all Part D plans chose to participate in each year. Its been by no means certain that the scheme would have been extended beyond 2023. It only applied to the so-called Enhanced Plans, ie those without low-income subsidies. The Biden government ensured it was no longer voluntary.

 

Controversially, the Heritage Foundation, who are making strong policy recommendations to Donald Trump, have suggested the IRA should be repealed. Some Republican Senators wanted to kill this copay cap part of the IRA. If it was Trump's idea, as he claimed, well, those Senators who voted against it, on the basis it kills market competition, could argue that Mr Trump was taking an anti-Capitalist stance. He wasn't because it wasn't his idea.

 

Drug pricing is complex. Eli Lilley's motivation might have been in part due to a desire to take market share from Novo Nordisk. Its reminiscent of the scandal years earlier when it was found the major manufacturers of glucose monitoring devices effectively controled the pharmacies that sold these to patients. I recall the FDA collated data over many years. Deregulation meant most of the big players, like Abbott, existed the market, which is now diminated by much lower cost but effective devices from Taiwan and China.

 

https://eu.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/11/indiana-senators-todd-young-mike-braun-voted-to-kill-insulin-price-cap/65397783007/

[Skeptic7]

It's over. Harris will be the next POTUS and Defendant Trump will be the next convict/inmate. 

[MicroB]

31 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

If she gets in  for the next four years America is sunk.

 

And sunk if he gets in. You lot are stuck it seems.

 

Of course, you have 33 senatorial seats up for grabs. That also affcts the path the US takes.

 

 

 

I can't explain Trump's behaviour at 1:23. During a little interlude when he's complaining about microphones, when the interviewer, whom his clearly disliked turns away, he grabs her bottle and clearly closes the top extra tight, forcefully, before replacing it, hoping no one noticed. Why would he do that? He had his own bottle of water on his right.

 

Edit: The Germaphobe thought it was his water, and drank it.

 

[susanlea]

 

Great answer. This pathetic leftist woman asking questions with no manners should be ashamed of herself.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

You think Trump made a competent choice in JD Vance?

I have no idea. Never heard of him till he was trotted out.

 

Get back to us when the VP choice actually wins an election. Harris didn't have a single primary victory but Biden still got elected.

[thaibeachlovers]

58 minutes ago, MicroB said:

And sunk if he gets in. You lot are stuck it seems.

IMO it doesn't matter who gets in as neither actually runs the country. That's pretty obvious with Biden as he was not up to that for at least a year, but someone was.

[thaipo7]

4 hours ago, Tug said:

And she’s just getting started!!+ trumps going off the deep end lol 😂 you guys and gals look up the meeting/ town hall he had today with the black women's journalist group OMG did he blow it he had them so angry it sounded like they were growling yeiks!!

Don't count your chicken yet.  Some of those eggs are cracked like your thinking.

Despite Publicly Hyping Kamala Harris, Democrats Are Singing a Different Tune in Private: Report

The Democrats and their allies in the media may be singing Kamala Harris’s praises in public, but don’t be fooled.  As it turns out, they don’t like old “Laughin’ Kamala” any more than the rest of us.  In fact, a new report revealed Harris’ allies are singing an altogether different, much less optimistic, tune in private.  According to The Hill, Democrats are especially worried that Harris may be unable to connect with the white working-class and union voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  President Joe Biden was able to connect with such voters in 2020. The three states were absolutely key to Biden’s electoral victory.

But now, having jumped into the race with only a few months left to go, Harris is working from behind.  It may be too late, some Democrats believe, for her to make up enough ground to win the election.  Others are willing to admit the obvious — a cackling, California communist doesn’t exactly appeal to voters in more moderate states.  “Everything I’ve always heard is she doesn’t have that many relationships in Pennsylvania, and she hasn’t established any kind of identity here. Obviously, it’s a very big difference with Joe Biden.”  Other Democrats told The Hill they know from Harris’s previously failed efforts in the 2020 DNC primaries that she is an awful campaigner.  “We need to be very clear-eyed, and it’s going to be brutally tough,” one Democrat reportedly told The Hill.

Trump’s victory may be far from locked in at this point, but having an opponent like Kamala Harris representing the opposition sure does help his chances.  And now you don’t just have to take this writer’s word for it — Democrats are saying the same thing behind the scenes.

[susanlea]

2 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

when Trumpo was ahead many here said they mean nothing

Trump is ahead of Harris despite all the liars on here claiming otherwise.

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, susanlea said:

 

Great answer. This pathetic leftist woman asking questions with no manners should be ashamed of herself.

the medi can say and act as hostile and rude as they want it comes to Trump, but the minute he calls them out they scream n cry that he's 'attacking the press'

[susanlea]

6 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

the medi can say and act as hostile and rude as they want it comes to Trump, but the minute he calls them out they scream n cry that he's 'attacking the press'

Trump is a legend.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Who actually believes any polls this far out from the election?

You, if they are telling you what you want to hear.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You think Trump made a competent choice in JD Vance?

It seems Trump himself is having second thoughts, he threw Vance under the bus in his disastrous interview with the Black Journalist Association.

 

Let me get this on record.

 

I said at moment President Biden withdrew from the contest and VO Harris stepped in, Vance is now on replacement watch.

 

With each tick of the clock he’s looking more and more like a guy heading for the door.

 

If the polls get worse for Trump he’ll turn on Vance, it’s his MO.

 

 

[susanlea]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You, if they are telling you what you want to hear.

I do so do the betting companies.

[susanlea]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

It seems Trump himself is having second thoughts, he threw Vance under the bus in his disastrous interview with the Black Journalist Association.

 

Let me get this in record.

 

I said at moment President Biden withdrew from the contest and VO Harris stepped in, Vance is now on replacement watch.

 

With each tick of the clock he’s looking more and more like a guy heading for the door.

 

If the polls get worse for Trump he’ll turn on Vance, it’s his MO.

False claims. He said Vance was good.

 

Why are you lying again?

[Hanaguma]

Back to the topic at hand- according to Real Clear Politics, Trump still has a 2 point lead overall, in their average of all polls. Plus leads in 6 of the 7 battleground states- Michigan being the only one where Harris leads.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/