Potential Collapse of Vital Atlantic Ocean Currents: A Looming Climate Catastrophe

[Social Media]

 

A critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents, which significantly influences global weather patterns, could face collapse as soon as the late 2030s, according to a new study. This potential planetary-scale disaster would dramatically alter weather and climate worldwide. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial component of this system, has shown signs of weakening due to rising ocean temperatures and changes in salinity caused by human-induced climate change.

 

Recent research, which has been peer-reviewed but not yet published in a journal, utilizes a state-of-the-art model to predict the timing of a potential AMOC collapse. The study estimates that the collapse could occur between 2037 and 2064, with a likelihood of it happening before 2050. René van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands and a co-author of the study, expressed deep concern: "This is really worrying. All the negative side effects of anthropogenic climate change, they will still continue to go on, like more heat waves, more droughts, more flooding. Then if you also have on top of that an AMOC collapse … the climate will become even more distorted."

 

The AMOC functions like a conveyor belt, transporting warm surface water from the southern hemisphere and the tropics to the cold North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier, sinks, and flows southward. This mechanism plays a crucial role in preventing the overheating of parts of the Southern Hemisphere and the extreme cooling of parts of the Northern Hemisphere. It also distributes nutrients vital for marine ecosystems. The collapse of the AMOC would have profound effects, leaving parts of the world unrecognizable.

 

Within decades, Arctic ice would advance southward, eventually reaching the southern coast of England after a century. Average temperatures in Europe and parts of North America, including regions of the United States, would plummet. The Amazon rainforest would experience a complete reversal of its seasonal patterns, with the current dry season becoming the rainy months and vice versa.

 

Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research, emphasized the gravity of the situation: "An AMOC collapse is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid." The Utrecht scientists' conclusions are based on advanced models and observational data from a newly identified optimal monitoring area in the South Atlantic Ocean.

 

By analyzing temperatures and ocean salinity in this region, they aimed to refine previous predictions about when the AMOC might reach its tipping point. Rahmstorf noted the significant advancements in understanding the AMOC's weakening: "Until a few years ago, we were discussing whether it would happen at all, as a kind of low-probability, high-impact risk. And now it looks a lot more likely than just a few years ago that this will happen. Now people are starting to close in on when it will happen."

 

Five years ago, Rahmstorf considered an AMOC collapse this century to be unlikely, but even a 10% risk was seen as unacceptably high given the catastrophic potential impact. "There’s now five papers, basically, that suggested it could well happen in this century, or even before the middle of the century. My overall assessment is now that the risk of us passing the tipping point in this century is probably even greater than 50%."

 

Despite rapid advancements in AMOC research and the development of predictive models, challenges remain. Current models do not fully account for the effects of melting Greenland ice, which introduces massive amounts of fresh water into the North Atlantic, disrupting the salinity-driven circulation. Rahmstorf highlighted this critical gap: "You’re already getting a huge influx of fresh water into the northern Atlantic, which is going to completely disrupt the system." This omission suggests that predictions might underestimate the speed or imminence of a potential collapse.

 

In summary, the new research underscores a dire warning about the future of the AMOC and its critical role in maintaining global climate stability. The potential collapse of this vital system, exacerbated by ongoing climate change and melting polar ice, presents a significant risk that demands urgent attention and action to mitigate its impact and prevent further environmental degradation.

 

Credit: CNN  2024-08-05

 

 

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[tpiety2]

that is quite a load of conjecture based on presupposed suppositions that are nothing more than 

what can we imagine that will get us noticed/published. imho

[AgMech Cowboy]

I remember a similar discussion in the 1990's when I still lived in the US.  It had much to do with the sediments the Gulf stream was picking up from all the sand that was being blown across the Atlantic from the Sahara and the even the Namib and Karoo deserts.  So many models and conjectures...  We should just forget about how the humans are able to adjust to changes in the climate and continue living the same way. As an example the Dutch will quit building dikes and levies and not teach anyone else to use them.

[nobodysfriend]

In Nature , everything is connected , every action provokes a reaction .

It once was a perfectly balanced ecosystem , that enabled species to survive and evolve .

In a second on the planetary time scale ( Planet is about 5 billion years old , the ' industrial revolution ' about 150 years old ) , mankind has managed to disturb that natural , life creating balance , up to a point that it cannot be repaired anymore .

Greed , violence and stupidity without the ability to foresee the consequences of its own actions has brought humanity to a point where everything suffers , people as well ...

It could have been done in a more responsible way , without the massive destruction that we witness today .

Too late now .

Intelligence was lacking , Ignorance and arrogance of the dominant species on this planet led straight to the point where we are now .

A pity ... it could have been so much better , if only there would have been a little empathy for every living thing , a respect for the balanced biosphere that finally created us , mankind .

A species bound for extinction ...

[nglodnig]

This has been predicted to happen over the last thirty years - it's always "next decade" but like tomorrow it never comes

[nobodysfriend]

8 minutes ago, nglodnig said:

This has been predicted to happen over the last thirty years - it's always "next decade" but like tomorrow it never comes

 

No , not the same ... look at the facts ...

Time is running out now ... the change is happening , just follow the news ...

[JCauto]

1 hour ago, tpiety2 said:

that is quite a load of conjecture based on presupposed suppositions that are nothing more than 

what can we imagine that will get us noticed/published. imho

 

So you're a scientist with a background in a relevant field? Highly unlikely given your inability to write a proper sentence in English. But I guess that's just a "presupposed supposition" whatever that is. Do you practice speaking gobbledegook at home by watching Trump's speeches about electric boats?

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, JCauto said:

 

So you're a scientist with a background in a relevant field? Highly unlikely given your inability to write a proper sentence in English. But I guess that's just a "presupposed supposition" whatever that is. Do you practice speaking gobbledegook at home by watching Trump's speeches about electric boats?

 

Trump! Of course! 🤣

[parallelman]

1 hour ago, nobodysfriend said:

In Nature , everything is connected , every action provokes a reaction .

It once was a perfectly balanced ecosystem , that enabled species to survive and evolve .

In a second on the planetary time scale ( Planet is about 5 billion years old , the ' industrial revolution ' about 150 years old ) , mankind has managed to disturb that natural , life creating balance , up to a point that it cannot be repaired anymore .

Greed , violence and stupidity without the ability to foresee the consequences of its own actions has brought humanity to a point where everything suffers , people as well ...

It could have been done in a more responsible way , without the massive destruction that we witness today .

Too late now .

Intelligence was lacking , Ignorance and arrogance of the dominant species on this planet led straight to the point where we are now .

A pity ... it could have been so much better , if only there would have been a little empathy for every living thing , a respect for the balanced biosphere that finally created us , mankind .

A species bound for extinction ...

The Earth's magnetic field is moving and could flip at any time and if the result is a weaker magnetic field it won't be enough protection from the Sun's Solar Wind, then it's goodbye. Every November the Earth passes through the Taurid cloud and every year there is a chance that one of the larger lumps will decend and kill us all. The Sun is not as stable as we once thought and at any time a giant CME could turn us all into fried steaks. Some star just a few light years away could go SN and that would bad news too. The universe is expanding and could end it all in a 'big rip' but then again it might just collapse and end in a 'big crunch'. The universe in violent in death but that death results in new 'life'. If we don't do the job ourselves then one of the others will.

Wonder if I have time for another cup of tea and look at that movie where the aliens invade and eat us.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, Social Media said:

Within decades, Arctic ice would advance southward, eventually reaching the southern coast of England after a century.

Apparently the earliest inhabitants of Britain crossed from Europe by walking across a frozen channel. I guess the migration will pass in the opposite direction as the few remaining inhabitants cross back to Europe on the trek to warmer climes. Perhaps humankind will end back where it came from in Africa.

Pity that EVs don't work without electricity, so they will have to walk.

 

13 hours ago, Social Media said:

Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany who was not involved in the latest research, emphasized the gravity of the situation: "An AMOC collapse is a really big danger that we should do everything we can to avoid."

No problem. They can ask Thailand to send a few boats to anchor off shore with their props sending the naughty water back in the proper direction. That'll soon have us warming up again, and then the scientists can get a few more years out of it. Never let a crisis go unused to make a bit of profit.

Edited August 5 by thaibeachlovers

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, JCauto said:

 

So you're a scientist with a background in a relevant field? Highly unlikely given your inability to write a proper sentence in English. But I guess that's just a "presupposed supposition" whatever that is. Do you practice speaking gobbledegook at home by watching Trump's speeches about electric boats?

Did you not read the rule about not attacking people for their writing?

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, nobodysfriend said:

 

No , not the same ... look at the facts ...

Time is running out now ... the change is happening , just follow the news ...

Not sure if you are serious about that, or not.

 

If you are though, what, in your opinion, would it take for us humans to actually change nature? We can't even cure cancer, so IMO we sure ain't going to be able to stop the current doing whatever currents do. Canute comes to mind.

 

IMO the biggest scam ever perpetrated by "scientists" is that they can actually change natural events, if only we do whatever they say and pay a lot more tax.

[tpiety2]

1 hour ago, JCauto said:

 

So you're a scientist with a background in a relevant field? Highly unlikely given your inability to write a proper sentence in English. But I guess that's just a "presupposed supposition" whatever that is. Do you practice speaking gobbledegook at home by watching Trump's speeches about electric boats?

next time I will speak slower so you might better comprehend. you must be online, try googling "presupposed suppositions".

Importance in Communication

Presuppositions play a crucial role in effective communication. They help convey background information without explicitly stating it. However, they can also lead to misunderstandings if the presupposed information is not shared by all participants.

Edited August 5 by tpiety2

[NativeBob]

11 minutes ago, tpiety2 said:

next time I will speak slower so you might better comprehend. you must be online, try googling "presupposed suppositions".

nice put. +100

[nobodysfriend]

50 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Not sure if you are serious about that, or not.

 

If you are though, what, in your opinion, would it take for us humans to actually change nature? We can't even cure cancer, so IMO we sure ain't going to be able to stop the current doing whatever currents do. Canute comes to mind.

 

IMO the biggest scam ever perpetrated by "scientists" is that they can actually change natural events, if only we do whatever they say and pay a lot more tax.

 

We cannot change Nature , but Nature can and will change us and our lifestyle . People will need to adapt to a changing environment . That will change people .

Climate change ( don't deny it , there is tons of evidence ... ) , is part of a chain reaction and not stoppable or reversible any more .

It will progress , no matter what .

Up to the human race to adapt .

But what gave us  quality of life , life in a healthy environment , will be taken away from us ... a struggle to survive will follow with overpopulation , degrading natural resources ( water , air , pollution ) etc ... it will not be a world worth living in any more .

No , sir , the point of no return has passed , cannot turn back the clock .

One more reason to try to enjoy every day , without doing something bad .

Happy to be old already . How fast these few years have passed ...

Take care , I think you are a nice person , may be politically a bit weird ... but Diversity makes it more interesting .

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, tpiety2 said:

that is quite a load of conjecture based on presupposed suppositions that are nothing more than 

what can we imagine that will get us noticed/published. imho

Another mindreader.

From the landing page of the World News Forum.

 

"Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source."

https://aseannow.com/forum/158-world-news/

 

To put it another way, put up or....

[Cryingdick]

Somewhere under a glacier in Iceland an elite team of childless cat ladies is being assembled ready to board John Kerry's carbon free jet. At the same time Greta is readying her ship to return to the high seas. I wouldn't worry too much about it. We can do this. Yes we can.

[placeholder]

14 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Somewhere under a glacier in Iceland an elite team of childless cat ladies is being assembled ready to board John Kerry's carbon free jet. At the same time Greta is readying her ship to return to the high seas. I wouldn't worry too much about it. We can do this. Yes we can.

I see you get your information from Qanon. Not surprising.

[ericthai]

12 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

 

No , not the same ... look at the facts ...

Time is running out now ... the change is happening , just follow the news ...

The weather / climate is always changing and has been for billions of years! The planet has been through 5 ice ages (without any interference from humans). 

The first one happened around 2 billion years ago. That one lasted about 300 million years.

 

The most recent one started about 2.6 million years ago, and in fact, we are still technically in it.

During an ice age temperatures will fluctuate between colder and warmer levels. Ice sheets and glaciers start to melt during the warmer phases. This is called interglacials. They will expand during colder phases which are called glacials.  Currently we are in the most recent ice age’s warm interglacial period, which began about 11,000 years ago.

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, ericthai said:

The weather / climate is always changing and has been for billions of years! The planet has been through 5 ice ages (without any interference from humans). 

The first one happened around 2 billion years ago. That one lasted about 300 million years.

 

The most recent one started about 2.6 million years ago, and in fact, we are still technically in it.

During an ice age temperatures will fluctuate between colder and warmer levels. Ice sheets and glaciers start to melt during the warmer phases. This is called interglacials. They will expand during colder phases which are called glacials.  Currently we are in the most recent ice age’s warm interglacial period, which began about 11,000 years ago

Yes the climate is always changing. But the thing is it's about rate of change. And the data is overwhelming at this point that greenhouse gases are responsible for the increased rate of change.

[nobodysfriend]

Man made climate change is happening now .

This is NOT a natural cycle .

Since the industrialization , within a merely 100 years , the climate has changed significantly .

This period is much too short to be natural .

There is tons of evidence for man made climate change .

 

I am only surprised that this evidence is constantly ignored by many posters here ...

Do you really think that the constant and increasing burning of fossil fuels and the pollution emitted by this , has no effect on the environment ?

How dumb does one need to be to deny the obvious and proven facts ?

Oh , ok , the Trump fans ... 55

[wavodavo]

20 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Poor old climate change..gets blamed for eveything. The other day I didnt make it to the toilet in time ..and had an accident in my pants .My wife blamed it on climate change!!

No , not the same ... look at the facts ...

Time is running out now ... the change is happening , just follow the news ...

 

[parallelman]

8 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Man made climate change is happening now .

This is NOT a natural cycle .

Since the industrialization , within a merely 100 years , the climate has changed significantly .

This period is much too short to be natural .

There is tons of evidence for man made climate change .

 

I am only surprised that this evidence is constantly ignored by many posters here ...

Do you really think that the constant and increasing burning of fossil fuels and the pollution emitted by this , has no effect on the environment ?

How dumb does one need to be to deny the obvious and proven facts ?

Oh , ok , the Trump fans ... 55

And what do you suggest as a solution? I am not denier but...the reason is that to many people there is no absolute model that does the prediction correctly. There is not just one global warming model but several because no one model can handle all the beginning scenario assumptions of how a Weather Cell will recact under various conditions.

For example, the differential equation that concern the amount of radiation absorbed by the Earth against the amount of same radiated back into space. May sound simple and direct but far from it. Does every part of the Earth receive the same amount of energy? Just think of Day & Night, the energy absorbed will be different. Ah, but that will average out as the Earth rotates. Nope, because some weather conditions will have changed which will then affect the amount of radiation reflected back into space. Then scientists have to decide what lattitude should be taken as a starting point/assumption. Some models start with the equatorial portions but others don't. This is only the start and there are already an increase in the number of models. (For example, the lattitude models of Budyko and Sellers start with the assumption that the temperature is is uinform/constant around a given lattitude and then double integrated to find the overall area temperature distribution. This model assumes that Earth is a perfect sphere...which in reality it is not. Earth is an oblate spheroid.) So what you end up with is an overal average estimate with error margins, which is some cases can be significant. All of this if about one item, Blackbody raditaion. 

And we haven't even mentioned CO₂. We need CO₂ to keep the surface of the Earth warm so we can surive but of course the question is now, at what concentration CO₂ will make the surface too warm. CO₂ doesn't come from space (although some does escape Earth through chemical reaction at high altitudes) and this is where a lot of controversy comes in. Like the raditaion models, there are several for CO₂ and again many assumptions, averaging etc. Then H₂O_, CH₄ etc with more assumptions, equations and averaging. This can be all very confusing to us laypeople who don't necessarily deny global warming but find it too complicated. Artificial satellites, specific to this problem, will give us better determinations but this, in relative terms, has only just begun.

Okay, one solution would be that people give up their private mode of motorised transport (combustion) or maybe rationed to some limit of travel each week. Everbody going electric will not, at this time, solve the problem because the grid would have to produce increased output and enough of the necessary 'non-fossil fuel' energy plants would take time to be built and meet demand. But even if we did all go for EV's would that be enough? During the construction of EV's there are some waste products that are harmful to the environment and there would have to be increased mining for the materials required. More eco systems would have to be sacrificed for the Human need. And don't forget, we are a financial society...all based on money. To make large changes to our lives quickly, could mean financial collapse for those who depend our choices. Thailand for example. How long is it going to take to replace all the 'fossil fuel' aicraft with alternatives? If the current number of aircraft were to be cut by say, 10% at regular intervals I don't think TAT would be very pleased. Yes there needs to be change but it has to be gradual, maybe over years...oh wait, we don't have that long, do we.

 

[placeholder]

13 minutes ago, parallelman said:

And what do you suggest as a solution? I am not denier but...the reason is that to many people there is no absolute model that does the prediction correctly. There is not just one global warming model but several because no one model can handle all the beginning scenario assumptions of how a Weather Cell will recact under various conditions.

For example, the differential equation that concern the amount of radiation absorbed by the Earth against the amount of same radiated back into space. May sound simple and direct but far from it. Does every part of the Earth receive the same amount of energy? Just think of Day & Night, the energy absorbed will be different. Ah, but that will average out as the Earth rotates. Nope, because some weather conditions will have changed which will then affect the amount of radiation reflected back into space. Then scientists have to decide what lattitude should be taken as a starting point/assumption. Some models start with the equatorial portions but others don't. This is only the start and there are already an increase in the number of models. (For example, the lattitude models of Budyko and Sellers start with the assumption that the temperature is is uinform/constant around a given lattitude and then double integrated to find the overall area temperature distribution. This model assumes that Earth is a perfect sphere...which in reality it is not. Earth is an oblate spheroid.) So what you end up with is an overal average estimate with error margins, which is some cases can be significant. All of this if about one item, Blackbody raditaion. 

And we haven't even mentioned CO₂. We need CO₂ to keep the surface of the Earth warm so we can surive but of course the question is now, at what concentration CO₂ will make the surface too warm. CO₂ doesn't come from space (although some does escape Earth through chemical reaction at high altitudes) and this is where a lot of controversy comes in. Like the raditaion models, there are several for CO₂ and again many assumptions, averaging etc. Then H₂O_, CH₄ etc with more assumptions, equations and averaging. This can be all very confusing to us laypeople who don't necessarily deny global warming but find it too complicated. Artificial satellites, specific to this problem, will give us better determinations but this, in relative terms, has only just begun.

Okay, one solution would be that people give up their private mode of motorised transport (combustion) or maybe rationed to some limit of travel each week. Everbody going electric will not, at this time, solve the problem because the grid would have to produce increased output and enough of the necessary 'non-fossil fuel' energy plants would take time to be built and meet demand. But even if we did all go for EV's would that be enough? During the construction of EV's there are some waste products that are harmful to the environment and there would have to be increased mining for the materials required. More eco systems would have to be sacrificed for the Human need. And don't forget, we are a financial society...all based on money. To make large changes to our lives quickly, could mean financial collapse for those who depend our choices. Thailand for example. How long is it going to take to replace all the 'fossil fuel' aicraft with alternatives? If the current number of aircraft were to be cut by say, 10% at regular intervals I don't think TAT would be very pleased. Yes there needs to be change but it has to be gradual, maybe over years...oh wait, we don't have that long, do we.

 

First off, most models have predicted the overall rate of global warming very accurately. Even those old modals that predated the massive computing power that subsequently became available.

Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
Study debunks idea that older models were inaccurate

Climate change doubters have a favorite target: climate models. They claim that computer simulations conducted decades ago didn't accurately predict current warming, so the public should be wary of the predictive power of newer models. Now, the most sweeping evaluation of these older models—some half a century old—shows most of them were indeed accurate.

https://www.science.org/content/article/even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctly-predicted-global-warming

 

Since these models were based on the warming properties of greenhouses gasses, our comments about CO2 are just obfuscation.

 

The same goes for your comment about the Earth's shape. It differs very, very slightly from a sphere.

 

"The Earth’s rotation creates an outward force that is highest at the equator and zero at the poles. Since the Earth is not perfectly solid throughout, this force results in the Earth being ‘squashed’ into a slightly flattened sphere...

The diameter at the poles is about 12,714km and at the equator is about 12,756km; hence the amount of flattening (or ‘oblateness’) is only about 0.3 per cent."

https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/why-isnt-the-earth-a-perfect-sphere

 

And satellites have been used to measure the energy balance since 1997

 

Direct Observations Confirm That Humans Are Throwing Earth's Energy Budget off Balance

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3072/direct-observations-confirm-that-humans-are-throwing-earths-energy-budget-off-balance/

 

[Lacessit]

On 8/5/2024 at 2:42 PM, nglodnig said:

This has been predicted to happen over the last thirty years - it's always "next decade" but like tomorrow it never comes

It's happening now, if you look at extreme weather events over the last decade.

[Lacessit]

21 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

Somewhere under a glacier in Iceland an elite team of childless cat ladies is being assembled ready to board John Kerry's carbon free jet. At the same time Greta is readying her ship to return to the high seas. I wouldn't worry too much about it. We can do this. Yes we can.

Of course you can, if you are a billionaire.

 

As for the rest of humanity, they are SOOL.

[Roo Island]

On 8/5/2024 at 7:59 AM, tpiety2 said:

that is quite a load of conjecture based on presupposed suppositions that are nothing more than 

what can we imagine that will get us noticed/published. imho

Are you a scientist?

[Roo Island]

On 8/5/2024 at 8:18 AM, AgMech Cowboy said:

I remember a similar discussion in the 1990's when I still lived in the US.  It had much to do with the sediments the Gulf stream was picking up from all the sand that was being blown across the Atlantic from the Sahara and the even the Namib and Karoo deserts.  So many models and conjectures...  We should just forget about how the humans are able to adjust to changes in the climate and continue living the same way. As an example the Dutch will quit building dikes and levies and not teach anyone else to use them.

Link?

[Roo Island]

On 8/5/2024 at 10:47 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Did you not read the rule about not attacking people for their writing?

 

 

No rules for calling out misinformation

[Roo Island]

23 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

Somewhere under a glacier in Iceland an elite team of childless cat ladies is being assembled ready to board John Kerry's carbon free jet. At the same time Greta is readying her ship to return to the high seas. I wouldn't worry too much about it. We can do this. Yes we can.

Wow. Drinking?